There was another attempted comment an hour or two ago, which this time I'm not going to publish because it's grossly misleading, which among other things claimed that the Hamilton result showed that the opinion polls are divorced from reality. Oh, really?
This is what last weekend's Norstat poll showed on the constituency ballot -
* The SNP down 15 points since 2021
* Labour down 3 points since 2021
* Reform UK up 18 points since 2021
If you apply those changes to the Hamilton constituency, this would have been the projected by-election result -
Labour 31%
SNP 31%
Reform UK 18%
And the actual result was -
Labour 32%
SNP 29%
Reform UK 26%
It is pushing credibility beyond breaking-point to suggest that the Hamilton result showed the opinion polls are wrong, at least as far as the SNP v Labour battle is concerned. The Norstat poll was actually shown to be correct within the usual margin of error, thus confirming that the SNP are likely to have a double-digit lead over Labour nationally. It's true that the full extent of the Reform surge in Hamilton was not reflected in the polls, but some of that surge was probably a by-election-specific effect anyway, ie. a protest vote that might not be repeated in a Holyrood election or Westminster general election.
The reason Labour were written off in the by-election had nothing to do with the polls, which as I pointed out in my piece in The National on Tuesday clearly suggested that Hamilton should be a very tight contest between Labour and the SNP. Labour were assumed to be in trouble in the constituency simply because of the feedback from campaigners on the ground.
Aye that was probably my comment James. What I should’ve said the general consensus that Labour weren’t in the races and would be fighting Reform for 2nd place. I don’t know about you but it was a great shock to me to wake up Friday morning to find that Labour had won and I bet I’m not alone.
ReplyDeleteNo, you’re (anon 8:07pm) not alone at all. I was very surprised at the outcome too.
ReplyDeleteYes, the opinion polls were more or less bang on (in term of SNP and Labour, anyway). Prof Curtice’s stated view before the result was it’d be close, and it was. Ballot Box Scotland said it would be at least fairly close and Labour couldn’t afford to lose, given the seat’s geography. I got it all wrong as I discounted all of this (how arrogant am I?), even though I’d read it all, and just assumed Labour were scunnered since … well, surely they just must be … and the SNP will sail home with ease.
BBS also made the comment about SNP voter turnout dropping off in by elections more than Labour’s, more resilient apparently. Don’t know if that is true.
Labour were assumed to be in trouble in the constituency simply because of the feedback from campaigners on the ground.
ReplyDeleteThat's Labour's own campaigners presumably? The Labour vote clearly held up better than expected so what made the voters change their mind on election day?
Or Labour played a somewhat naive Swinney, who saw Reform as the main challenge, not Labour. In the General election he made exactly the same serious error, except that time the tories were supposedly the challenge. Make Scotland Tory free, Labour win. Make Scotland Reform free, Labour win. Mmmmh? Is anyone in the SNP leadership getting any of this?
DeleteStew has been hacked again. Couldn't have happened to a more deserving guy.
ReplyDeleteFrom an independence point of view, the next election is meaningless isn't it? Either way a 30% victory isn't moving the dial. Does it really matter? What is genuinely better long term? Turning into a 25 yesterday stint in government or going into opposition to come back stronger. I genuinely do not know what builds the momentum required to gain the 20% and more needed of Yes who are against the SNP.
ReplyDeleteIf we lose our position as biggest party in Holyrood and Reform gain a foothold Independence and a devolved parliament are both finished. SNP really do not grasp how precarious the position is, and Swinney is showing himself to be increasingly out of his depth. Look at his pitch in the G E. Oppose the tories. In come Labour. Recent by election. Oppose Reform. Labour get in. Stupid and real errors of judgement.
ReplyDeleteThe result didn't shock me - Weak Swinney leadership[p and an SNP that doesn't promote Indy plus Sturgeon and her alphabet queer and Wokist cabal continue to damage SNP and Indy Cause.
ReplyDeleteThe result actually angered me. Reform are an English NAZI Party. Imagine the vote they will get in those constituencies with Huge English White Settler Populations.