The remarkable YouGov polling that shows the Scottish public are totally opposed to Ash Regan's private member's bill introducing the Nordic Model on prostitution law - both in terms of principle and practicalities

Still smarting from Bonnie Prince Bob's excoriating video calling him out on his apologism for the genocide in Gaza, Stuart "Stew" Campbell has made a quite astoundingly defamatory statement about Bob, suggesting he must be a frequenter of 'saunas' simply because he opposes Ash Regan's bill introducing the Nordic Model on prostitution law.  With any luck Bob will sue the hell out of Stew.

As long-term readers of this blog know, I'm also strongly opposed to the Nordic Model, and in fact I think I first blogged about the subject before Wings Over Scotland even existed.  But from a party political point of view, what interests me most are the chances of the Regan bill passing, because there's an obvious tension here.  There's probably a natural majority in the Scottish Parliament in favour of the Nordic Model, foolish though that is - the SNP, Labour and the Tories all seem attracted to the idea (gloriously ironic in the Tories' case given that the Nordic Model is rooted in Marxist concepts of class struggle and 'false consciousness'), and yet there's a massive obvious downside to SNP MSPs allowing the bill through, because that would give Ash Regan a huge propaganda win as she bids for re-election either as an Alba candidate or as a candidate for a new McEleny/Regan party or as an independent.  That's a genie they won't be keen to let out of the bottle.  Additionally, passing the bill could make it harder for the SNP to do a confidence-and-supply deal with the Greens if one is necessary after next May's election, because the Greens are viscerally opposed to the Nordic Model and instead favour the decriminalisation of prostitution.

So I did a Google search to see if I could find out which way the wind is blowing, particularly as far as SNP MSPs are concerned.  I ended up none the wiser, but I did discover that sex workers opposed to the bill mounted a fightback a few days ago, and in doing so cited a major YouGov poll of Scottish adults from a year ago that I must have overlooked at the time.  With a bit of difficulty I've tracked the data tables down, and the results are truly remarkable.  It's not a surprise that the public would oppose the Nordic Model due to the harm it causes in practice to vulnerable sex workers, but what perhaps is quite startling is that it turns out that a plurality of the public think prostitution should remain legal as a matter of principle, even before any other factors are taken into account.

YouGov poll of adults in Scotland, 13th-17th May 2024:

Generally speaking do you think it should or should not be legal in Scotland for a person to do the following…

Pay someone to have sex with them?

Should be legal: 47%

Should not be legal: 32%

As far as I can see there's no funny business going on here, there's no Yes, Minister question-ladder effect distorting people's answers.  Only one question seems to have been asked prior to the above one, and that was a scrupulously neutral question asking what the top three government policy priorities should be.  So the results can be regarded as entirely credible.  

I think it's fair to say that many of our elected parliamentarians simply think the public are wrong about this.  Which is fine - as I said about the gender self-ID issue in 2021, it's perfectly legitimate in a parliamentary democracy for MSPs to vote in defiance of the public's wishes, as long as they're clear-sighted and honest about what they're doing, and don't try to delude themselves that the public are happy about it when the polar opposite is true.  Sadly, however, that kind of honesty is rarely forthcoming.

It may also be of some interest to SNP MSPs to learn that the kind of liberal, pro-independence, pro-Europe voters they rely on to get elected are even more likely to be in favour of keeping the purchase of sex legal. Remain voters from 2016 are in favour of it by a margin of 50% to 28%, while in contrast Leave voters are opposed by a slender margin of 41% to 39%.  Yes voters from the 2014 independence referendum also favour keeping prostitution legal by a bigger margin (49% to 31%) than No voters do (44% to 33%).

The poll shows the public also think that accepting payment for sex (ie. as opposed to purchasing it) should remain legal, by the even bigger margin of 50% to 29%.  However, that's the part of the equation the Nordic Model doesn't criminalise (at least not on paper).

Thinking about your local area, which of the following comes closest to your view…

I would prefer for sex workers to look for business on the street: 2%

I would prefer for sex workers to look for business online: 63%

The point here is that the Nordic Model effectively forces sex workers back onto the streets, in defiance of the public's overwhelming wishes.  Why does it do that?  Simply because once the purchase of sex is criminalised, clients of sex workers will consider it too risky to make the initial approach online in case they are being monitored.  Instead they'll look for direct face-to-face interactions, thus forcing sex workers looking for trade to do so in much less safe conditions, and arguably causing a totally unnecessary 'public nuisance'.

Which of the following comes closest to your view?

Sex work, even when carried out by those who choose to engage in it, should always be considered to be violence against women: 13%

Sex work, carried out by those who choose to engage in it, should not always be considered to be violence against women: 62%

On paper, that's the most damning result of all for the Regan bill, because the entire logic of the Nordic Model is predicated on the Marxist-rooted assumption that ALL sex work, without exception, is a form of male violence against women, and that it's therefore acceptable to discriminate by gender in the policing of an effective ban on prostitution by only criminalising the male purchaser and not the female seller (who is supposedly a victim suffering from 'false consciousness').  However, again, it seems that many parliamentarians simply believe the public are wrong to reject this ideology.

When the Scottish Government is considering new laws to keep sex workers safe, do you think they should or should not consult sex workers and sex worker-led groups that represent them?

The Scottish Government should consult sex workers and sex worker-led groups that represent them: 79%

The Scottish Government should not consult sex workers and sex worker-led groups that represent them: 7%

I suspect this might be the most promising get-out clause for any SNP MSPs who have sympathy for the Nordic Model but who also want to avoid boosting Ash Regan's election hopes - they could simply point out that the consultation that has taken place was wholly inadequate and indeed was largely a sham, and that if legislation on the subject is to be taken forward, it would be much better for it to be done by the Scottish Government rather than by a private member.  That way, there's a far better chance that the interests of all affected parties can be properly considered and protected.