Clydebank Waterfront by-election result on first preferences (15th May 2025):
SNP 35.6% (-16.7)
Reform UK 26.3% (n/a)
Labour 25.3% (-12.1)
Liberal Democrats 4.7% (n/a)
Conservatives 2.9% (-4.8)
Greens 2.6% (n/a)
Alba 1.6% (n/a)
Scottish Family Party 0.9% (-1.7)
Reform UK 26.3% (n/a)
Labour 25.3% (-12.1)
Liberal Democrats 4.7% (n/a)
Conservatives 2.9% (-4.8)
Greens 2.6% (n/a)
Alba 1.6% (n/a)
Scottish Family Party 0.9% (-1.7)
Thinking back to that string of by-elections late last year where the SNP were getting creditable results but failing to actually win the seats, they'll probably be happy enough for the reverse to be true this time and for them to get the win on a mildly disappointing result. There's a net swing from SNP to Labour of just over 2%, which is consistent with a nationwide SNP lead over Labour of just under eight percentage points - not as good as the opinion polls suggest. In the light of my 'tactical voting' debate with Campbell yesterday, I couldn't help but laugh at his clueless reaction to this result on Twitter - he said he might have to revise his prediction of Jackie Baillie holding Dumbarton for Labour. In reality, of course, if this result was extrapolated to Dumbarton, Jackie Baillie would hold the seat with an increased majority.
If rounded to the nearest whole number, Alba have just about managed their familiar 2%, but nobody I know in the party is clinging to that particular straw this morning. There's genuine shock at how awful the result is, and for the first time I've heard people wondering if Alba will even survive long enough to take part in the 2026 election. The chances are they will, but whether they will survive their expected drubbing in that election is another matter entirely.
There's a remarkable consistency to the bad news for the Tories - this result is in line with other by-elections and with all of the opinion poll evidence. They're being eclipsed by Reform, and they could soon become an irrelevance outside a few pockets of geographical strength. (Although in those pockets I expect them to hold on in Lib Dem cockroach style.)
What makes the result even worse for Alba is that they don't bother standing in most by-elections so that they can put all their effort into the odd one here or there. So this is the best they can do even when they concentrate their resources.
ReplyDeleteStu Campbell: "I'm a respected psephologist you know"
ReplyDeleteAlso Stu Campbell: "I think this means Jackie Baillie will lose her seat"
LOL
The turnout was 25.3%. Good news for Farage.
ReplyDeleteFunny that Kenny was elected echoing the “First Activist” mantra of Humza but wasn’t seen once in this by election but instead spent the past few weeks posting books he had read on social media as well as pictures of new born farm animals. Whatever members ALBA has left will be suffering from buyers remorse I imagine.
ReplyDeleteThe National got this wrong by the way:
ReplyDelete"The SNP's Kevin Crawford (below) picked up the seat with 1331 first-preference votes, while Reform UK came in second with their candidate securing 919 first-preference votes."
They were the results AFTER transfers.
As we've seen in the past sometimes the new party on the block gets people excited and attracts voters from other parties. We can't completely rule out some "soft" snp voters going to reform. I've spoken with people who previously voted for many different parties including snp saying they will vote for reform.
ReplyDeleteWell, the opinion poll evidence suggests that the SNP are losing votes to Reform, but not in the same numbers as the Tories and Labour are.
DeleteLib Dems holding on like roaches! All too true here in Edinburgh West. They’re guaranteed to hold the seat again next year, of course, the only contest really being for swings. How well will Reform perform in an entirely uncompetitive race, yet in Edinburgh’s least Remainer seat? Right here, every unionist knows who their winner is. So does that suppress Reform or not? And how might the SNP vote hold up in this strange Petri dish? There’s the chance it could be among their most “Yes” rich votes in Scotland, simply by being starved of unionists.
ReplyDeleteLib-Dems doing well in all of Edinburgh - if 2024 GE results starters and current local voter conversations are indication - but a ton of 'trades' folk enthusiastic about ReformUK. SNP on shaky nail in Edinburgh sadly - except maybe for Leith, but not even sure there now.
DeleteIt’s a class thing. Edinburgh is as bourgeois as anywhere on earth, so there’s always been rich pickings for Libs and Tories. SNP’s always been weaker here than elsewhere, even at its height, along with Yes. Middle classes mostly opposed independence and the SNP alike.
DeleteReform might be limited by that same class ceiling. Their vote leans heavily working class in England, from what I’ve heard. That’s why they’ve destroyed the Tories where they have: in England’s working class Tory strongholds.
So will Reform take well-heeled, private educated, Edinburgh Tories (and Liberals) votes? There’s no shortage at all of English et pats to pick from, after all. Or are they fishing in a different pond?
I think Dr Jim's got this right actually, despite the (normal) low turnout where "protest" votes might turn out better:
ReplyDelete"We’re a year out from Scottish elections and already a British fascist party are a solid second place in Scotland, a country that previously rejected this guy and his politics in all its guises, Farage will be delighted with this result"
Public perception is important, and probably pays little attention to turnout, just the headlines. Punters don't see them as "fascist" though.
Same with Trump in America. Meeting his supporters over there, they’re just normal people, sick of party politics and willing to give the outspoken rich man a try. No one I’ve ever met there calls themselves a fascist. I’m no Louis Theroux! Just have family there so know the place beyond the London media coverage.
DeleteNazi voters in the 1930s were also just ordinary, loveable grandmothers.
DeleteSNP -16.7% “… a mildly disappointing result”
ReplyDeleteTories. -4.8%. “……..remarkable consistency to the bad news for the Tories”
Nationalist propaganda on steroids!
You couldnae make this crap up!
SNP 35.6%
DeleteConservatives 2.9%
What's your point, KC?
Tories are becoming the UUP. Reform is the all conquering DUP outsiders. And Farage is their Reverend Ian Paisley. No wonder Campbell feels strange affinity with him.
DeleteNo friends whatsoever of Scottish independence though, to say the least!
Time for all decent Scottish politicians to hammer home just what racist fascist trash the Reform party actually is.
DeleteThat trash must be taken head-on and not bodyswerved.
Reform are racist fascist trash.
Vote Reform, make the anon 12:53 pipsqueak eat his trash words. MBGA.
DeleteVote Reform and make an appointment with your local psychiatrist afterwards.
DeleteSo, where are the former SNP votes heading? I tell you, it's no joke when I say the SNP are losing votes to Reform. The SNP's pro woke agenda is costing them votes although encouragingly it doesn't appear to be damaging support for independence.
ReplyDeleteThink you're right as there certainly seem to be big anti-SNP messages coming from the two main religious 'congregations' and their supporters. Seen McKenna's blame SNP Orange Lodge article in the Herald?
ReplyDeleteNot convinced Alba messaging independence as a vote winner has any authenticity to it - but suspect goading the SNP into going big for independence, talk of convention etc - is because they know SNP support will actually reduce if SNP go big on independence. Catch-22 for SNP as always. Alba and much of the 'movement' seem to want SNP very diluted - and in position where other indy bods feel they can take upper hand over SNP activity. However, despite current polls, SNP might lose much bigger than anticipated and I think Swinney is thinking that way too. I don't think he has big expectations for SNP for HR 2026. Hopes maybe, but not expectations.
Think we need to see what Hamilton by-elec turns up as some kind of bellweather - but still not reliable.
Think there are no real guarantees for Holyrood potential make-up this time. Too much all-round economic catastrophies and media concentration on one thing or another really creating an undulating political Scottish sea. None of it good.
McKenna is just clickbait for the Herald
DeleteAlba have a decision to make
ReplyDeleteKenny MacAskill has a decision to make
Either Alba joins the Liberate Scotland Election Umbrella group or Alba dies
Simple
SNP down 16.7% and win the seat.
ReplyDelete