What would be the consequences of Reform taking power in Wales next spring?

As I always point out, YouGov's Scottish subsamples are of more interest than those from other polling firms, because they appear to be correctly structured and weighted (albeit they still have a very large margin of error due to the small sample size).  The latest one is healthy enough, giving the SNP a big 14-point lead, and with Labour in third place - but behind the Tories rather than Reform UK.

What I'm not sure about is whether YouGov follow the same practice with their Welsh subsamples.  If they do, alarm bells should be ringing, because these are the up-to-date numbers: Reform UK 24%, Plaid Cymru 23%, Labour 23%, Conservatives 15%, Liberal Democrats 11%, Greens 3%.  Those are Westminster numbers, but nevertheless they're within the margin of error of the recent full-scale Senedd poll from Survation which gave Labour a slender three-point lead over both Plaid and Reform.  They're also very similar to the last full-scale Welsh poll from YouGov themselves a few months ago, which famously had Plaid in a one-point lead over Reform.

It's clear there is a genuinely competitive three-way battle for first place at next year's Senedd election between Plaid, Labour and Reform, and it's difficult to read what is most likely to happen.  There's actually an argument that Reform might do even better than the polls suggest, because their support base skews older, and it's older people who turn out to vote most reliably.  But the counter-argument is that Reform voters are largely Brit Nats, and a fair few of them are actually English immigrants to Wales, who might not see much point of voting in a Senedd election.  So if anything next year will be a home fixture for Plaid, and they might just out-perform the polls and dramatically clinch first place.

One way or another, though, this looks like being a major story and predictably it's barely even being covered by the London media.  Reform's first chance to take power, with control over (among other things) the NHS and education, will not come in 2028 or 2029, but as soon as next May.  And that thought must privately fill Nigel Farage with absolute horror, because if they make a complete hash of ministerial office in Wales, as they probably would, it might well destroy their chances of winning UK-wide at the general election.

In which case, the good news for Farage is that Plaid, Labour and the Lib Dems between them will almost certainly have the numbers to freeze Reform out if they so choose, even if Reform are in first place.  It remains to be seen whether such an arrangement would be under a Labour or a Plaid First Minister, which is obviously of huge psychological and symbolic importance.

That would be the ideal scenario for Farage as 2028/9 approaches - the status and momentum of first place but without any of the responsibilities of power.

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