Welsh Senedd voting intentions (Beaufort Research / Nation Cymru, 3rd-25th March 2025):
Labour 27% (-)
Plaid Cymru 24% (+7)
Reform UK 23% (-1)
Conservatives 16% (-2)
Greens 5% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 4% (-2)
Plaid Cymru 24% (+7)
Reform UK 23% (-1)
Conservatives 16% (-2)
Greens 5% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 4% (-2)
The surge for Plaid has occurred at some point (or possibly gradually) over a period of several months since the previous Beaufort poll in November, so at first glance this isn't a surprising result - it simply brings Beaufort into line with the last two polls from other firms (YouGov and Survation) in showing a very close three-way battle between Plaid, Labour and Reform. But in actual fact, the November poll from Beaufort was conducted at roughly the same time as the YouGov poll showing Plaid in a slight lead. So if Beaufort are reporting a big swing to Plaid since then, it's theoretically possible that a new YouGov poll would show Plaid extending their lead. That sort of logic doesn't always work, of course, but it would certainly be interesting to see a full-scale Welsh poll from YouGov right now.
Among Welsh speakers, Plaid are on a heady 43% of the vote in the Beaufort poll and have a 17-point lead over Labour. The British state is probably still secretly glad it beat the living daylights out of successive generations of Welsh-speaking schoolchildren, because if Wales was still a predominantly Welsh-speaking country, it would be well on its way to independence by now.
Overall Plaid are in second place in the popular vote, but they are still projected to finish only third in terms of seats - which is odd in a way, because Wales is scrapping the Additional Member System and replacing it with a pure list system, which ought to be more proportional. However, seats are still being distributed on a regional rather than national basis, which gives Reform apparent scope to amass votes slightly more efficiently than Plaid.
One thing I didn't realise until checking a few minutes ago is that the reforms are apparently accompanied with a reduction in the Senedd's term length from five years to four. That's a very healthy democratic step and I wish Scotland was following suit. Five-year terms were only introduced in Scotland and Wales as a panic reaction to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, which otherwise would have seen the dates for Holyrood and Westminster elections coinciding in 2015. But the Fixed Term Parliaments Act has now been long since repealed, so what exactly are we keeping five-year terms for?
Always good to read your comments. One thing for your readers to understand regarding Wales is that we are facing a demographic landslide. Only 70% of the population are now born in Wales (those not born in Wales are overwhelmingly from England), and only just over 60% now identify as Welsh in any way. When this is taken into account, the proportion supporting independence (41% at last month's poll) is astonishingly high.
ReplyDeleteYou have to remember that quite a lot of the people who were born in England living in Wales is down to maternity hospitals in England being closer to ones in some areas of Wales. Also, the areas with the highest proportion of those born in Wales.
DeleteThe fall in those identifying as Welsh can't be blamed just on more English living on Wales. Take Blaenau Gwent, 88% born in Wales in 2021, down from 90% in 2011 but only 8.4% born in England in 2021.
"National identity in Blaenau Gwent
Blaenau Gwent saw Wales' second-largest percentage-point fall in the proportion of people who identified as "Welsh only" (from 72.4% in 2011 to 68.0% in 2021)"
This might explain... In Census 2021, “British” was moved to the top response option and this may have influenced how people described their national identity.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/censusareachanges/W06000019/
If significant numbers of people are only being recorded as born outside of a country due to the quirk of where the nearest maternity ward is located, the census should really be asking an additional question along the lines of "family's usual residence at time of birth", or something like that. I once had a maddening conversation with a medical professional who just couldn't seem to get over the fact that I was born in Glasgow. "When did you move away from Glasgow?" "I didn't. I've never lived there." "But you said that..."
DeleteI agree with you but that's what it says when reading about the demographics of Wales. In Flintshire and Powys more people were born in England than in Wales. A lot of that is down to cross border births but overall Wales does have a high net migration of English migrants moving into Wales in rural areas and along its north coast.
Delete> what exactly are we keeping five-year terms for?
ReplyDeleteEasy one. Job security. Not ours, theirs.
Exactly. You can't expect MSPs to be approved for a second home mortgage if they could be voted out of a job at any moment.
DeleteAnon at 8.42 ...... tiresome stuff ... yawn ... zzzzzzzzzzzz
DeleteElections are too divisive. We should simply put up with the status quo until London tells us otherwise. “Once in a generation.” You’ll have had your election then.
DeleteRemember 2007? Holding elections simultaneously is messier, especially when they use different systems.
DeleteThe only reason it's becoming a problem again is because the UK parliament has reasserted the PM's right to call snap elections. Changing the term length back won't fix this, though. Any PM who wants to go NOW isn't ever gonna wait a year to respect devolution.
I am Z. Anon at 9.51 is an imposter. Anon at 7.51 is just a silly wee anorak clad wanker. Not even his village want him back.
DeleteZ at 1.20pm why don't you post as Z then. It would be great to understand your point of view on so many subjects😂.
DeleteEnglish born or identifying voters should really be banned from voting in both Scottish and Welsh parliaments. Even just once, so we could see the actual political leanings of both countries. Of course it will never happen due to wokey play fair nonsense from the colonial overlords but you can guarantee it would result in starkly different outcomes
ReplyDeleteNot sure you've grasped what 'wokey' means but top mark for using fashionable word.
DeleteUniversal suffrage is woke
DeleteDemocracy is so passé.
DeleteSeriously though, to everyone who plays the nativist card: where exactly do you draw the line? Only Scots born people can vote? Or only anyone who ticks the box to say they “identify” as Scots, so they can vote for Blighty and Farage? Do non-ethnic Scots count? How about the Irish?
There’s a word for all that, of course. Apartheid.
Wales is what Scotland looks like if we waste another generation doing f*** all about indy. (And we = our leadership, ofc. The rest of us are still here.) The lesson is to GET ON WITH IT, not to move the goalposts somewhere we’re guaranteed to win.
Easy. Your vote should be based on your Salmond blood.
DeleteI have been pro-independence for decades despite not being born in Scotland (or in Britain, for that matter). I'll be damned if anyone is taking my vote away from me on that basis.
DeleteYou can apply for an Indy Recognition Certificate. It’s confidential, so dinnae worry. It also allows you entry into Scottish Skier’s bathroom, no questions asked, apparently.
DeleteAnon at 9.49. You need to brush up on Apartheid. There should be a requirement that you have resided continuously in Scotland for the period of the Holyrood Parliament immediately preceding the election, and did not vote in any elections in England, Wales or NI during that period, and a custodial penalty imposed on anyone who breaches that requirement. Spare me contrived scenarios that could lead to someone being denied a vote unjustly.
DeleteOff topic.
ReplyDeleteI travelled over to Arran on Glen Sannox recently. There’s a plaque that states “MV Glen Sannox. Launched on 21 November 2017 by Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland “.
For some reason it dosen’t add “Entered service on 12 January 2025”.
Now of course the burning question is, when will MV Glen Rosa enter service?
Will it be the end of the year? Next year? The following year? Who knows!
The saga goes on and on.
Congratulations!...you've just won the Easter shit-stirring prick award for 2025.
DeleteZzzzzzzzzzzz. Away watch the BBC and post on WOS.
DeleteKC, you told us the other day, for the second year in a row, that you were going to stop posting on this blog. Why have you gone back on your word again? You've had more comebacks than Frank Sinatra.
DeleteSure the ferries dullard was the same tedious old man? There’s nary a Nessie reference in the piece.
DeleteTbh, KC or whoever is just doing Swinney’s work for him. The ferries are an authentic scandal, but the narcolepsy inducing tedium he shines on them turns all eyes away.
Swinney should give it a shot, himself!
"Sure the ferries dullard was the same tedious old man?"
DeleteYup. His repertoire was/is Nessie, the Glen Sannox, "de facto referendums oh dear oh dear oh dear oh dear" and "Find Out Now polls oh dear oh dear oh dear I'm waiting for YouGov and Survation".
I think it’s fair to say Find Out Now polls, on the whole, are more reliable than either Survation or YouGov.
DeleteBreaking News
ReplyDeleteNot all posters on WGD are absolute numpties.
Archie says: " The vote in May 26 has to be a de facto referendum. There is support for independence but it is being denied as an option on the ballot paper."
Quite right Archie. Who is preventing the de facto referendum happening and why?
Meanwhile the Big Dug blogger not content with getting people to fund buying him a home and raising £6k in his recent fundraiser wants people to buy him a coffee.
This is the same blogger who supported Sturgeon through all her years of falsehoods and wasted great opportunities for independence. He knows he has captured a right bunch of mugs.
I’d buy a Toby mug from him, of Nicola sitting on the lid of independence, and Wee Ginger at her feet. Just a wee peek of Nicola’s red, white and blue socks, too. That would be a collectible for sure.
DeleteZzzzzzzzzzzzz.
DeleteSaid Nicola those 10 years she blocked indy. Give her a kiss from us, too
DeleteWhat on earth’s a “de facto “ referendum?
DeleteHas there ever been such a thing in the past?
Yes, in 1918 for example, as you've been told about a million times before, KC, but the only question that interests me at the moment is WHY ARE YOU STILL HERE? You said would no longer be posting?
DeleteYou mean they've joined Alba ?
ReplyDeleteTas says shut up and eat yer cereal, plebs.
DeleteAnonymous at 10:01 there is a simple system available to determine fairly who should receive a vote. It’s called a tax reference number. Everyone is issued with one. When I resided temporarily in France I could not vote in national elections as I was not registered as a French income tax payer. I was able to vote in local elections as I was registered as a local tax payer. This information is available to the authority at the click of a button. It is the easiest and fairest way of determining entitlement.
ReplyDeleteNo doubt. My point had more to do with the insidious suggestion that being born outside Scotland somehow makes some of us unworthy of a say in our nation's future.
DeleteYes, anon. I understood your concern. Some commenters are careless with their language. Also meaning is often lost by people not wishing to go into long complex explanations. Anyone, regardless of national origin, should be able to take part in elections if they have demonstrated their commitment to their adopted land. That’s why I suggest a tax reference number. For me that demonstrates their commitment.
Delete