I was initially puzzled by the poll reported on the front page of The National today, but it turns out that it's the Scottish component of a GB-wide MRP poll. The full sample size of the poll across Britain was just over 5000, which may mean the Scottish sample was around 500, which would be about half the size of the typical sample for a full-scale Scottish poll. But MRP polls don't always have evenly spread samples, so it may not be as simple as that. I'll see if I can find out more when I have more time.
The poll is billed as having been conducted by "PLMR / Electoral Calculus". PLMR is some sort of communications outfit and is not a member of the British Polling Council. Electoral Calculus is a member of the BPC, but I'm not aware of it having the capacity to carry out its own polling fieldwork, so it would be interesting to know how the fieldwork was sourced.
The vote intention percentages are fairly typical of what we've become used to recently, albeit with Reform's surge reaching the point where they are now closer than ever before to overtaking Labour in Scotland (unless you count the inaccurate numbers from the recent Find Out Now poll that were reported by the Herald).
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:
I launched the Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2025 a couple of weeks ago, and so far the running total stands at £1251, meaning that 18% of the target of £6800 has been raised. If you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop continue with poll analysis and truly independent political commentary for another year, donations are welcome HERE. Direct Paypal donations can also be made - my Paypal email address is: jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
Ffs, how can the SNP be on just 31% when they’re the BEST political party on these islands by a country mile, and in John Swinney we have a leader admired the WORLD over.
ReplyDeleteThese polls are ABSOLUTE PISH!
Au contraire! Ce sondage prouve à quel point Swinnet est monté en flèche avec le Parti de l'Indépendance!
DeleteLes sommets vertigineux de l'économie politique écossaise sont à jamais occupés par le seul et unique parti de l'État radical. Vive la révolution !
Afternoon Anon Doppelganger Dummies.
DeleteStill posting yer 10th rate skitter, eh?
Still..........they do say "imitation is the sincerest form of flattery".
Cheers, Cretins!
Which one is the REAL David Francis?
DeleteThe one whose name appears in blue and who is abusive and offensive to everyone else.
DeleteCertainly not a very pleasant character.
DeleteYou can always tell it's me when I call you naughty words, because I’m real manly, like. Dinnae you doubt my toxic masculinity, or I'll get upset!
DeleteYou can tell it's me because when I'm livid, I could squeeze the life out of a marshmallow. And do.
DeleteSo that means there are now three posters on SGP who trash polls and are “ polling deniers “, KC the unionist, Dr Jim the Nicola lover , and the fake David Francis. Small qualification on that statement - it is possible the fake David Francis is just posting that to try and wind up the real David Francis. You know the same approach Declan takes with ifs.
DeleteA bit like your last sentence then!
Delete424 anon It’s IFs- I claim my prize.
DeleteI claim anon at 6.20pm is anonymous in his own household and is obsessed with me.
DeleteInteresting sets of figures. Reform are not yet fully organised in Scotland yet and seem to be steadily eroding Conservative support. There is no rush for them GB wise to reach the tipping point..slow and steady
ReplyDeleteReform have the rest of the year to refine their Scottish appproach. Once that is in place expect them to come for the SNP vote.
The tipping point may come if Reform approach 35 points. The MSM will have a close idea on who feeds them. 35 points for Reform may encourage some to break ranks.
MSM have seen Trump with is gov efficiency and how that could impact their funding. It a strategic risk if they keep backing the wrong woke horse!
Their young, handsome, energetic new Scottish branch leader will take Reform up a notch in Scotland. He just needs to serve out his notice at his current general secretary job first.
DeleteWas he in a BMX gang in the 80s?
DeleteReform to refine their Scottish approach. Lol I can imagine it, dress up like Harry Lauder, grovel before Trump when he arrives at Prestwick, and of course tell a'body "I'm a Proud-Scot-but"
DeleteIf you can't picture Trump and McEleny shaking hands, with shit-eating grins, you're not trying hard enough.
Delete"Welcome tay Scotland, Mister President. We love you! You're the best! Och, aye."
Lol.
Delete'Trump/gov efficiency'
Keep taking the pills, Dummy.
Ths US and Israel are now THE top two PARIAH STATES.
The Orange Blimp is a Convicted Criminal Man-Baby who honestly thinks he rules the Planet and his wee pal Musk is a genuine megalomaniac who thinks he can buy his way to power without any mandate whatsoever.
Shredding International Law with his 'plan' to remove all Palestinians from Gaza so he can build Trump Riviera, is the very epitome of that White House Wanker's mindset.
Not really surprising that cretinous halfwits like you support Human Dross like Trump.
Hi Dave.love your no noncense posts. Would you be willing to support the trans community? We need someone that is a strong voice.
DeleteFor a UkGE poll I assume under 18’s have been ignored from the totals. So Scotland wide will be higher for SNP.
ReplyDeleteFind out Now, Scottish sub-sample (117); Con 10%, Lab 18%, LibDem 14%, RefUK 18%, SNP 39%, Green 9%.
ReplyDeleteRefUK are neck-and-neck with Labour.
Encouraging Scottish sub-sample showing that SNP being well led.
DeleteThanks James. I feel that the SNP are on 31% only because they are seen as the best of a bad bunch. For me they've still got massive amounts of work to do before HR 2026. And Branchform still projects a shadow over them.
ReplyDeleteOn Reform they really need a good performance in Wales and Scotland. If they achieve that then they'll be the darlings of the media from then until the UKGE.
I do think however that if events in the USA turn sour and nasty (which seems a realistic possibility) then many folk who might dabble with Reform will recoil. Hopefully
But the SNP are not on 31% are they? this poll failed to include age difference 16+ year old polling in Scotland which will add at least a further 8%
DeleteSo best of a bad bunch? no, in truth a return to the only party in Scotland that is actually Scottish and doing it right rather than the terrible mistake made voting Labour which is now proving buyers regret a real thing
Didn't you know that Salmond's branchform strategy hasn't worked, Nicola Sturgeon has entered and passed SNP vetting process and will be back, and as John Swinney has stated "I am very comfortable with that"
Delete"this poll failed to include age difference 16+ year old polling in Scotland which will add at least a further 8%"
DeleteIt's a Westminster poll, so 16 and 17 year olds can't vote even in Scotland. But it wouldn't make anything like an 8% difference even if they could. 1% at most.
Anon2:20, If Sturgeon is coming back, let's hope she turns up at Holyrood this time as she's been almost invisible for 18 months. She has plenty of spare time to go on tour with her 'friend' Big Val.
Delete2.18 pm. “ a further 8%.” just why do you think posting a lie helps independence it just helps unionists like KC. The real David Francis said the SNP were the best of a bad bunch.
DeleteTalking about liars you can always rely on Dr Jim at 2.20 PM to include at least one in his posts.
The 8% guy is Dr Jim, who is not good with numbers.
DeleteIFS your weekend has been ruined again lol
ReplyDeleteIFS can console himself listening to his Bobby Crush LPs.
DeleteAre you punching the sky again, Declan? We know how that ended last time.😄
DeleteIFS is raging again, glory days the SNP is back baby.
DeleteGo and actually prove him wrong by calling Indyref2 in 2026 then.
DeleteThe SNP bobbing up in the polls like a floating jobby is not to be confused with Scottish independence. Just so you know.
The grand alliance of Alba, ISP and NSP will get us a referendum !
DeleteHow many seats are you predicting now Declan? It was in the high 40s for Westminster!🤡
DeleteThat poster Declan only seems to come on SGP to troll ifs. Declan is the jobby who stinks out SGP with his infantile and inaccurate comments.
DeleteDeclan stinks because he is still trying to get the egg off his face from his nonsense forecast re SNP MP numbers last July.
DeleteI have no idea who Clayderman and Crush are and have no intention of finding out.
DeleteFormer flings you've had maybe?
DeleteAnon @7.31pm - this is an independence site not tinder. You won’t get anywhere here.
DeleteIFS at 6:29pm
DeleteProtesting too much? I remember you saying you had a Richard Clayderman anorak and you used to dream of getting a piano stool like Bobby Crush's.
Anon at 9.34pm - clearly you inhabit a different universe.
DeleteSNP doing well is a consequence of now having a steady hand on the tiller, compared to recent turbulence John Swinney is doing well.
ReplyDelete“ Turbulence “ for goodness sake is the SNP an aircraft now. Make up your mind - if you cannot tell the difference between a vehicle, a ship and an aircraft your comments do not have much credibility. Most 3 year olds can manage that.
DeleteShips come within the meaning of vehicle. Even a three year old knows that you silly billy.
DeleteWater can be turbulent.
DeleteCan’t say I have ever read anybody referring to the Glen Sannox as the vehicle that is over budget and over time. I’m sure spaceships can be classed as a vehicle but nobody refers to them that way. So be pedantic if you want.
DeleteHow about: the SNP is the broken down vehicle for independence but John Swinney has put down his redactor pen and picked up his spanner. Does that work for you?
8.25. So I’m correct? You should think twice about being a smart arse because you’ve ended up just looking stupid.
Delete4.55am - is the motorhome the true vehicle for independence and that’s why there is nothing happening about independence because the police have impounded it as evidence? Also being such a smart person can you tell me if a train is a vehicle?
DeleteMaybe the fringe albanists who were in the snp and left were the ones causing the undermining?
ReplyDeleteToo wee. Too extreme. And far, far, too consequential.
DeleteAlba have only ever existed to bring down the SNP
DeleteIt failed
I mean The SNP got 47.7% of the Constituency vote in 2021... how likely is that in 2026?
DeleteWe will find out in 2026. Meanwhile your Alba dream is well and truly fecked. It’s just lying there, legs akimbo.
DeleteSNP actual current polling properly adjusted is closer to 40%
ReplyDeleteIf at this midway point before 2026 elections those numbers continue on this trajectory, do the maths
"If those numbers continue on this trajectory"
DeleteIn general, numbers don't. (Look up Reversion to the Mean.) That kind of thinking works wonders for bookies and other markets, though. You should buy some stock!
TBF, it wouldn't surprise me if the SNP stays on top—reduced from the pre-Humza days, but still ahead of the rest—all the way through to election day in 2026. That's the blessing of incompetent rivals. As the old test-pilot's quote goes: "It's better to be lucky than good."
DeleteReform, though, they're a threat. "On this trajectory" they'd be dominant soon enough. They won't, but they could well settle a good bit higher than the conventional wisdom would like.
Encouraging poll.
ReplyDeleteIt’ll be good to see a poll putting the pro Indy share of the vote above 40% though.
Here’s hoping soon.
I'm going to be opening up about my battle with election fatigue on the Andrew Marr Cavalcade on Sunday. Tune in and listen to me leaning into my prevailing emotions.
DeleteWho are you?
DeleteFor a while in 2013/4 the SNP seriously challenged a key aspect of prevalent neoliberal ideology - the centralised, unitary ( despite the smokescreen of devolution to partly conceal it) state. As a consequence establishment lackeys of all parties and none concentrated their fire on YES/SNP and just managed to avoid disaster by 55/45 %.
ReplyDeleteSince then Corbyn was seen as a similar, English based, threat and smashed by all and sundry in favour of the compliant, toadying Starmer. The SNP meanwile purged itself of 'dangerous radicalism' becoming, at the top at least, a faux independence party.
Reform (sic) poses as a radical alternative to the serial failure of neolib tories and Labour while actually having nothing but, fascism enabling, froth and venom to offer. If they get into UK government their economics will fail and they will seek to sustain themselves by driving more and more people crazy with scapegoating of minorities for all of Farage's incompetence.
Self determination for Scotland is truly radical in the modern UK context and, when linked with a mildly social democratic "well being" economic approach, can actually offer a bit of hope for the majority of our people - but only if it is pushed forward successfully !
An incoming Farage government will understand this enough to turn on us in a British version of Trumpism.
We must not let this happen. Just maybe the SNP can regain its courage and proper priorites. Anyone who believes that it can be done should rejoin the party and get on with political renewal quickly. Those of us who think that the odds are against that working should build the non party campaigning groups. The two strands need to grow up from 'Ya Boo..' insults on blog threads and work together.
Time is short !
“Time is short “ it certainly is Alt Clut. I just don’t understand those people who on the one hand say we should not rush independence but also warn us of the impending doom (Farage etc ) coming down the track very shortly.
DeleteWe have had 10 wasted years which ended with Nicola getting indyref2 declared illegal and now they want to drag their feet until Farage makes independence itself illegal.
Is that a plan for Scottish independence!
Indyref2 was not declared illegal. The court confirmed what most of us already knew. Under the relevant legislation S G could not hold an Indy Referendum.
DeleteAnon at 6.46pm - is it illegal under UK law for a Scottish government with a mandate to hold an independence referendum without Westminster approval - yes it is. Therefore, the claim of right of the people of Scotland is being kicked in to touch and who facilitated this. Nicola Sturgeon.
DeleteIs it illegal under international law - probably not. But we know that the UK / US bully boys care little for international law other than when it suits them.
Of course, if it was so obvious then why did Sturgeon keep saying vote SNP for a referendum that she couldn’t deliver.
England stole lands/ countries from all over the world and the thieves do not give up their stolen goods very easily. They pass laws to say it is illegal to take back your stolen goods. Trump is at it today just as Putin is. All thieving bastards.
Am I the only person who comments here who has actually bothered to read Reform's policies? If that is true, there are a lot of very lazy people here.
DeleteNo you are not! Will maybe expand later xxx
Deleteit is illegal under the terms of the treaty of union that the supreme court even exists
Deletereform = neoliberalism on crack and get rid of all the pakis, and blame it all on the EU
DeleteAnon at 7.57pm - I've never read mein kampf either does that make me doubly lazy?
DeleteIt’s not just the parties though. Some of the other external pro Indy groups got away ahead of themselves. I don’t like the term Indy 2 as it reminds you of the failed independence referendum. No doubt various thoughts on this but how about we all coalesce for 1 big march in the summer? All independence parties but also all groups big and small.
ReplyDeleteScotland 1st, Self Government for Scotland, No more Westminster.
Scotland pro-European. We’re Back!
I am sure others will have their own ideas.
Marches like that are good for motivating the grassroots, generating positive energy etc... but what would we be getting people energised for?
DeleteWithout something tangible to put a coordinated effort into it's a waste of time. People aren't marching up a hill for hopes & wishes anymore. & the Yes movement needs considerably more than just a nice day out.
Too much other single interest attached to them, like save the planet, poverty in Paisley, woke in Slumberland. Bairns not bombs, EU, hate the Torys, probably Starmer, Farage and Trump next.
DeleteThey should just be Independence. Nothing else. At all. And no speakers anti-SNP either. Just Independence.
Totally agree with yesindyref2. Anon at 3.57pm you spoiled your post by adding Scotland pro European. Can we not just stick to independence. I mean how hard is that. Personally I'm not against Europe but plenty are.
DeleteI also agree with anon 5.22pm.
I'd love to go on a big march again. Nothing quite like it for morale.
DeletePro-EU please. 'Pro-Europe' sound like you have an affection for the political system in Belarus, Serbia, and Azerbaijan. The largest city in Europe is Istanbul. The second largest is Moscow.
DeleteSo IFS not a friend of Europe. Does tend to show that some albanists and outliers are more linked to the ukip views. They prefer brexit to independence I sometimes think.
Delete'A friend of Europe' is as braindead as 'a friend of Asia', all the way from Kazakhstan to Japan. It denotes an insular, uninterested view of the world.
Delete" So ifs is not a friend of Europe" - anon you may think that making up stuff winds me up but it it disnae it just makes you look like the stupid liar you truly are.
DeleteWell, interesting article in the National: https://archive.is/iZq9X
ReplyDelete"A FORMER Conservative spin doctor has said he believes that John Swinney and Kate Forbes “could actually pull off indy”.
Andy Maciver, the former head of communications for the Scottish Tories, hailed the duo as “gold dust” and said the rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could spell the end of the Union."
I rate the guy, probably the best columnist. He tells it as it is, and indeed, "Message Matters".
McIver's article in the Herald. Critics of the SNP will agree with some of it, "loyalists" would agree with other bits. The trick is to keep an open mind and be both. Much like the general non-activist electorate itself would do.
Deletehttps://archive.is/RpXCy
Yesindyref2 - you are turning in to a Swinney fanboy. I have posted before that idolising politicians never ends well. Look at the state of the likes of that extreme nicophant Dr Jim - mental gymnastics being required to maintain a saintly image of his Nicola. You are on the path to being the very first swinophant. It’s not too late to turn back.
Delete"swinophant"
DeleteThat's quite good. Sounds a bit like a genetic experiment.
I'll happily give support to any politician that advances Independence in any way. And Swinney is getting rid of more and more of the previous nonsense the BHA dragged up - nonsense that did absolutely nothing for Independence. And some of that nonsense was silence while the extremists associated the Indy movement with a load of pigswill.
Ok yesindyref2 I will concede Swinney is getting rid of nonsense that he was party to introducing. The question is what is his motivation. Is it to just to make sure he is FM for longer or is it to be in a better position to deliver independence. It could be both!
DeleteSwinney also says he is in regular contact with Sturgeon. Does he say to her I am trashing all your crap policies? I do not trust Sturgeon or Swinney.
What do you get if you cross a nicophant with a swinophant?
Yes it could be both, and I'll judge him by his results. Which so far I think are OK. Should never "trust" any politician; they need to be treated with an iron fist and a velvet glove. They are politicians after all.
DeleteThe Phantom of the Opera. Apparently.
And on another note, Jings it's all happening today. From National:
ReplyDelete"Rewilding
John Swinney rules out reintroduction of lynx or 'any large carnivorous animal'"
About bloody time too. We're not geared up for this touchy feely shite originating from people living in the tame New Forest down south; apart from the odd few farmers with shotgun licences.
Swinney has a sure touch and a steady hand, and made a great speech at conference.
And another before I have my tea "John Swinney says it’s ‘essential’ farms can be passed down through generations"
DeleteExactly.
I disagree wi indyref 2 .Scotland is one of the most nature depleted countries in the world. Most civilised European countries have retained or reintroduced mammalian predators such as lynx . The " keeper" mentality of shoot anything that might occasionally eat something that the toffs shoot is all pervasive in Scotland. Many of the big landowners encourage this attitude. Over grazing by deer is a major problem in our woodlands . Lynx eat rabbits and smaller deer species.
DeleteBiodiversity loss is something that will come back to bite us. If you don't understand this then learn some basic biology !
It's about time for Scotland to enter the 21st century. The need for such policies is one of the reasons that I support independence!
Alba gu brath!
I'm sure this is all very great for the childless flat-dweller on Hyndland Road whose exposure to the wild is limited to the occasional foray into Kelvingrove Park as a change from the delights of Byres Road and the wild life in Ashton Lane or Partick.
DeleteSwinney has got it right sucking up to the farmers. He is also right about not having wild beasts roaming about Scotland. McEleny is more than enough.
DeleteAgree Swinney got it right. In general his leadership has been marked by a steady hand.
DeleteHello Ifs, I asked you on a previous thread if you could explain to me what a “de facto “ referendum was and how it would work in practice, as it’s not something I’m familiar with.
DeleteI understand you’re probably a very busy man, but would be grateful if you could spare a few minutes of your valuable time to enlighten me.
Many thanks.
I doesn't surprise me that John Swinney and Kate Forbes are very much to a right-wing former Tory spin-doctor's liking (or Shell's liking or the Duke of Buccleuch's liking).
DeleteAnon at 8.01pm - look KC you know fine well what it is and false flattery will get you nowhere with me.
DeleteYes it's farmers, including hill farmers with around 6 million sheep in Scotland, many of them unfenced, particularly on single track and minor roads. But it's also the huge family adventure holiday market, and even just the normal walking and camping.
Delete"The tourism sector is one of the most important for the Scottish economy with around 14 million people visiting the country each year. Spending by tourists is around 5% of GDP and the sector accounts for more than 7% of employment in Scotland."
We have a cat and have had other cats. Maybe 2 to 3 kg. There are pet cats that can give a nasty scratch or bite, specially if startled. A fully grown lynx can be 15kg or more and bigger.
And there were some who wanted wolves and bears to be "reintroduced". Feck off.
Anon at 7:12 pm -- I agree entirely with your comment. And YIR2 is coming across as a complete idiot on the subject.
Deleteyi2- so Scotland should just have the grouse and deer shooters on our land. Of course some of the same groups kill raptors such as ospreys.
DeleteAre you two Anons thick and totally ignorant of rural Scotland as well as illiterate?
DeleteAnon@8:07, Why don't you read up on it yourself? Are you too lazy or just too thick?
DeleteEncouraging SNP poll.
ReplyDeleteShows what difference a great leader makes.
DeleteAccording to the polls the SNP is flatlining on pretty much the same as they got in their disastrous general election result.
ReplyDeleteSwinney is, jist aboot , better than Sarwar and the rest of the unionists. But he kens nocht aboot Biology!
ReplyDeleteHe knows a lot about corporation-tax returns (and there are lots of sheep farmers in his constituency with lambies to rear and corporation-tax returns to fill in).
DeleteSwinney is good.
DeleteJohn Swinney is the Mahatma Gandhi of the 21st century, but much better.
DeleteSwinney is the Sadhu of Strathmore. He has achieved liberation from the cycle of unionism and rebirth.
DeleteThe SNP has progressive policies that put Scotland’s people first. From expanding free education to environmental sustainability, their leadership under John Swinney has driven real change. Their commitment to an independent Scotland reflects a vision of self-determination and a government that truly represents Scottish interests. Whether it’s standing against austerity or pushing for a fairer economy, the SNP is arguably Scotlsnds best political party..
ReplyDeletethat's a fucking press release you muppet
Deleteanon 847 IFs -You again!
DeleteAnon at 9.51pm - I’m guessing you are the sort of person bookies just love. Totally clueless.
DeleteIf you compare the SNP with ANY other Mainstream Political Party on mainland Britain, let alone in Scotland, it is easily the BEST.
ReplyDeleteIt is not even close.
I have both family and friends presently in England who would give both arms and legs to be able to vote for them 'dan saf', rather than the utter dross they are forced to choose between, there.
Stop posting complete and utter pish Francis.
DeleteWhat a clown you are, it’s embarrassing at times.
Hiya all it’s the soft faascist here. Nice to see you all having a soft cuddly Nat night. Will be back later to burst your baw!
DeleteThis is why the Francis situation is such a horror. The guy at 8.51 is the real one but he is INDISTINGUISHABLE from his parody.
DeleteOk, Anons - name a mainstream Poltical Party on mainland Britain better than SNP .
DeleteAnd I will try not to piss myself laughing.
David Francis, your defence and indeed praise of the SNP is beyond ridiculous.
DeleteYour praise of Sturgeon during Covid is even more hideous.
TBH........I really don't give one solitary shit what Anon Cowards like you think of me, pal.
DeleteBut, in the interest of a good Friday night guffaw - I am STILL waiting for the nominations from yer fellow wee Anons, as to which Mainland British Party is better than the SNP.
Want to nominate one........?
Monster Raving Loony Party. I'm surprised you're not a candidate, Dave.
DeleteLol.
DeleteJust the sort of dumb response I expected.
I repeat - The SNP is the BEST Mainstream Political Party on Mainland Britain.
Bar none.
Sensitive wee flower aren't we, Davie? Bad boys making a fool of you? Tell yer Mammy on them.😫
DeleteDoesn't give a shit what anons think about him but respond to every criticism like a teenage lassie! What a clown!
DeleteAnonymous at 9:23pm
DeleteI see you enjoy taking the mickey out of people with northeast accents. Shame on you for trying to embarrass our fellow Scots for the way they talk. You'd be better commenting at the Scotsman or Daily Record.
What the hell are you on about?
DeleteThe SNP is better than any party in Engerland . True . Nevertheless , Swinney is wrang on the lynx . Even wi the banning o pussy cats he's wrang . In areas such as the cairngorms domestic cats are hybridising with wild cats thus diminishing their chance of survival . Pet cats in theses areas should be controlled - either banned or only allowed if neutered.
ReplyDeleteScience and evidence should be forefront!
But what if the cats identify as non-binary and/or gender neutral?
DeleteWeel Agatha, if they're gender neutral or non- binary nae self- respecting male wildcat would want to fuck them, hence nae problem.
DeleteVery vulgar language. Appalling. What one would expect of the lower orders. Presumably from a joyless town in some ghastly district like Lanarkshire.
DeleteIts that the ne ALBA policy?
ReplyDeleteInteresting piece -
ReplyDeleteFORMER Conservative spin doctor has said he believes that John Swinney and Kate Forbes “could actually pull off indy”.
Andy Maciver, the former head of communications for the Scottish Tories, hailed the duo as “gold dust” and said the rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could spell the end of the Union.
The podcast host said that the SNP chiefs could claim “credit” in reversing the fortunes of Anas Sarwar’s Scottish Labour who were “only six months ago, measuring the curtains in Bute House”.
“Scottish Labour’s woes are, it is true, largely derived from events at Westminster.
“However we should not underestimate how much credit Mr Swinney and Ms Forbes can claim for the turnaround in the SNP’s fortunes at the expense of the rival which was, only six months ago, measuring the curtains in Bute House.
“This duo is proving to be gold dust. The competent, assured leader who has turned chaos into calm, inside the party and out in the country.
“And the deputy (well, actually, almost co-leader) who has a vision and determination much more akin to the conquering Scotland of centuries past than to the turgid, depressed, pedestrian era of devolution.”
The political veteran, who was the Scottish Tories’ top spinner from 2002 to 2007 as well as working on Murdo Fraser’s (above) ill-fated bid to create a separate Scottish Conservative party, said that in the aftermath of Labour’s landslide, he had believed that independence was “dead”.
He added: “Today, a little over six months later, I have changed my mind.”
Maciver said that he believed Farage would “kill the Conservative Party and eat its carcass” and that it was “by no means fanciful” to predict that at the next General Election, “he will have manoeuvred [Tory leader Kemi] Badenoch into a position where she is forced to agree to work together in some way, but that she and her Tory party end up on the junior end of the deal”.
He added: “That would go down like a double-skinned lead balloon here in Scotland. Yes, Reform UK is also polling relatively well here, but remains a minor rather than a major force.
“Ultimately, it is an English nationalist party, and one cannot expect an English nationalist party to prosper in a country in which two-thirds of the residents identify themselves as Scottish rather than British.”
Maciver predicted that the combination of Swinney and Forbes’s strategy and the ascendency of Farage south of the Border made independence more likely.
"Independence sentiment in Scotland grows when the Unionist alternative is seen to be repulsive. And independence sentiment throughout global history has grown when the future looks more optimistic, prosperous and wealthy than the status quo.”
In a tweet promoting the piece, which ran with the headline “I've changed my mind: Swinney and Forbes could pull off indy”, Maciver added: “The headline says it all.”
David Francis promoting the views of a Tory. If anyone else did this Francis would be right on them saying they are a Tory.
DeleteNot to mention that this assumes nothing will happen until after the 2029 General Election at the earliest. Free in 2031 maybe?
DeleteLol.
DeleteColumn in the Herald, pal.
The interesting aspect is that EVEN a Tory thinks this.
Of course, it doesn't fit your SNP Baad wee mindset.
But then again, you don't really matter much, do you.
The Herald - a Tory paper.
DeleteSo a Tory wants to keep Swinney in power. Wow I wonder why that might be. Oh that's right David Francis thinks the Tory is promoting Swinney because he is looking good to deliver independence.
DeleteDavid just how much money have you lost to scammers in your life or are you just like KC another phoney independence supporter.
David Francis - 11.44pm - excellent use of paragraphs.
DeleteDave makes me happy d!
DeleteWee Ginger Dug
ReplyDeleteThis SNP propagandist site that David Francis endorses just happens to have a poster (Tatu3 ) who has consistently supported Israel's collective punishment of millions of Palestinians. This punishment includes the mass murder of approx 60,000, a vey large percentage of whom are women and children. Although the site owner claims he is against this collective punishment he allows tatu3 to continue to broadcast her hate of all Palestinians on his site. Yet David Francis also claims to be against Palestinian injustice.
By contrast you are not allowed to post any criticism of the SNP. Only SNP propaganda is acceptable on WGD.
The only sensible conclusion to be drawn here from this comparison is that Mr Kavanagh and Mr Francis prioritise SNP propaganda over the lives of Palestinian children.
Not a word of criticism of Trumps Gaza Riviera plan comments uttered by Tatu3.
It is an ongoing disgrace that European teams still play football with Israeli teams. Eurovision - the same.
Your weird mindset over WGD and the surprise that he doesn’t promote anti SNP dirge is one of its benefits. We don’t have to read ifs and your allegiance with unionists.
ReplyDeleteAnon at 12.32am - You just read my post thicko.
DeleteThe SNP are the 1% swing party. But I'm too busy advising Duggers to how to play the stock market to go into more detail.
DeleteI am the real Declan and I say His Majesty John Swinney is the best politician on planet earth and the SNP are the best political party in the universe. All hail Honest John.
DeleteWind yer neck RIGHT in, you slimy little SLUG.
ReplyDeleteI have consistently and VERY vociferously posted about the Israeli Gaza Genocide and the massacre of Palestinian kids in particular.
And unlike a spineless, nameless nonentity like you, I have done that publicly on sites like twitter under my true name.
The fact that you posted such a repugnant reply to my highlighting of a newspaper column you didn't like, simply because it praised Swinney, just shows how low in the gutter you actually sit.
You are a piece of Human Trash, nothing more.
And you REALLY do not fucking matter.
David you are not very good at this logic thing. If I don't matter why the extreme Mr Angry post.
DeleteI also note you put forward no argument to refute the point I made that you both place SNP propaganda ahead of people supporting mass murder.
In your rage you seem to have forgotten how to do paragraphs again. Does your carer help you with your posts now and again?
Ifs bowler hat, flute, bang the drum, wearing his sash
DeleteAnon at 1.59pm - I laugh at you and your pathetic snidey one liner. So I play the flute while banging a drum do I. You think I am an octopus or something. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 You cannae even get a ten word one line post correct. Too lazy to even use a full stop and caps. What a numpty.
DeleteHi all loving your love in. So much fun. Dave is back and in spanking the boaby mode. He s great value.
ReplyDeleteAre we allowed to talk about Islam?
Seriously someone mentioned about the under 18 vote. Would these be the kids that can’t get a place at college due to immigration and woke pish. Many parents in Aberdeenshire complaining about this. Oh and they are WHITE.
More to follow but read this and wonder why Reform are ticking up the polls.
Ba aware that Reform are targeting the 16 to 19 vote in Scotland! Reform have lot of young WHITE votes and great IT support.
Muslims seem to be block voting? Is it s fair? Can other groups do the same?
Now you could go into detail but soon it looks like like we will have anti blasphemy laws to protect Muslims. Then they will come for folk that want an Indy Scotland.
Just chewing the fat my friends .
KLAXON Dave Francis is going to give us his views on the Trans issue
DeleteI wonder if Swinney would be happy with his young grand daughter having a period accident, going to clean that up and find a man in the toilets.
ReplyDeleteJames it’s your site. What do you think of that?
I think your base.Ever been to mixed swimming pool etc. What do you think of that?
ReplyDeleteWhy are some folk so on here interested in children’s periods? Very creepy and extreme.
DeleteJust noticed posting at 230am in the morning. Imagining having such thoughts at that time. Of course I suppose they could be in the USA supporting the man child Trump?
ReplyDeleteLooks like David Francis was on the sauce last night.
ReplyDeleteAnon 905 -or you?
ReplyDeleteMorning folks,
ReplyDeleteA wee weekend teaser for you.
What’s the difference between people who think Scotland will be independent by the turn of the next century and Nessie hunters?
I’ll give you all a few hours to ponder, but if nobody manages to work it out I’ll be back later with the answer.
The first group want to ban KC?
DeleteZzzzzz
DeleteDon’t bother.
ReplyDeleteInteresting blog entry by James. Under John Swinney's leadership, the SNP has experienced a resurgence in support, as evidenced by this poll and others positioning the SNP ahead in Scotland. Swinney's strategic focus on the everyday concerns of orrdinary people such as the economy, child poverty, and public services, has resonated with voters and strengthened the party's standing.
ReplyDeleteUnder Honest Full On John the SNP's support has rocketed up by a MASSIVE 1% while SGP commenters sit on a 50 year-long NHS waiting list to get their reality bypasses removed.
Delete31% is a resurgence is it. Oh for the good old days when the SNP used to get 45 - 50% and wanted independence.
DeleteQuestion Time:
ReplyDeletehttps://x.com/ianbhood/status/1887979651328266367
(Readers, you may also wish to question the "Miss Prissy of constitutional procedure." Good luck.)
If Swinney bins the annual GERS report then I might consider that he is serious about independence. Every year the SNP produce this propaganda report that tells the people of Scotland we cannae afford independence. I'd like to hear yesindyref2 and David Francis tell me if they think contents are accurate and if it should be binned. If it should be binned then why do the SNP keep producing it. Sturgeon promised Derek McKay would replace it. Another Sturgeon promise that bites the dust.
ReplyDeleteIt's about the money/economy that stops some people voting for independence yet the SNP tell them Scotland has a massive deficit. It's a lie that the SNP tell every year and makes great headlines for the Britnat papers.
I have been advocating since 2020 on SGP that GERS should be binned. The SNP leadership are devolutionists.
"Sturgeon promised Derek McKay would replace it"
DeleteI think we could do without an annual Derek McKay.
IFS,
DeleteThe SNP are correct though, we cannae afford independence. The vast majority of economists will tell you independence would be lunacy. I always remember a leading economist, in the lead up to the 2014 referendum, saying “independence is the economics of a madhouse “.
People who can’t see this really are deluded fools. Either that or they just live in denial or are haters of the English, and it’s a case of “independence and to hell with the consequences “.
The biggest problem with GERS is the figure for Spending on behalf of Scotland by the UK Government. Scotland gets "charged" the amounts, but if the departments, contractors, wages and spending is in London or the South-East as much of it is, we DON'T get the benefit of the taxes, NI, corporation tax, VAT - nor do we get the secondary spending of the wages or suppliers. I believe it's called "accruals".
DeleteThat's £billions of revenue that we could get if we had full control of our spending with Independence. Even though like every country, some would be spent outside our economy buying supplies from other countries.
Forbes was going to produce some sort of parallel GERS, but that never happened. Nor does there seem to be a plan for it.
As an overall guide, if government money is spent in the economy, 60% or so of that spending comes back to Government so it actually costs a lot less!
Only with Independence will we have full control of our spending - and the maximum benefit of it in our economy. At the moment we are being robbed.
Somehow I don’t think Norwegians believe independence is the economics of the madhouse. A more than £1trillion wealth fund built up from their oil and gas resources. I’ve asked them for a loan and they tell me to get lost. So no money to the Waspi women. Blame those selfish Norwegians. No wonder they consistently top the happiest country in the world lists. By contrast we continue to help ourselves to Scotland’s resources yet still manage to run up trillions of debt. Grand theft oil. We cannot believe our luck that the Scotch are such mugs. Especially that SNP lot.
DeleteYou remember but cannot remember the name of the leading economist. Would it be the same type of expert who said 10 years ago that the oil would be finished in 10 years. They are obviously members of our Paid To Lie organisation. Funded by the British state. We get good value for money from these people.
Just as well we have the Scotch unionists to help us steal Scotlands resources. English nationalists rule.
FFS never mind GERS, use the comparative GDP per capita numbers produced by the IMF to make your economic case; these are not fiddled and clearly show Scotland's impoverishment compared to its peers.
DeleteIf you think you're British then you're part of the problem and you fell for the con trick
DeleteCan you imagine any other country on the planet just allowing some King and another nation to come along and tell you you're not who you were the day before, and your country no longer legally exists, and to rub it in you can't visit another country without their issued legal document that you have to pay them for, a "passport" to identify you as owned by them and the world will now know you forever as a vassal of that state
Aye! the Romans knew what they were doing, that's why the English copied the idea to wipe out the identities of those they conquered
Anon at 1.28. Educate yourself.
DeleteGERS were introduced to discredit S G. Ignore them. How much tax revenue do we send to Westminster?. How much comes back up for direct spending? What happens to the rest?
Delete“Sir Keir Starmer”
DeleteSome serious nationalist propaganda bullshit!
Yesindyref2 - I don't really any lesson on the validity of GERS. I worked that out a long time ago. Therefore I state that the SNP if they are for independence should bin it. You do not address this
Deletepoint. A party that says it is for independence producing every year a document saying Scotland cannae afford independence. This is a sick joke played on the people of Scotland.
So people expect a party that disnae have the courage to bin a report to take on Westminster for independence. Delusional wishful thinking. Now who have I accused of these failings previously. Oh that's right you yesindyref2.
"Delusional wishful thinking"
DeleteWrites a ISP supporter !
2.25pm - are you same anon numpty who keeps posting this stuff. I've told you plentry of times I am an independence supporter. Surely it must at some point sink in to your dense brain the difference. I note you have zero to say about the point I make about the SNP and GERS. Just a stupid snidey remark. The hallmark of a halfwit.
DeleteCancel all work on GERS or you’re Brits.
DeleteWhy even waste our Holyrood budget on it? Let London cook the books for their bloody selves.
James - I continue to be of the mind that you Kavanagh and Small should consider working far more in concert in the general drive for Independence.
ReplyDeleteThis site Dug and Bella are all excellent in their own rights, but would be far more formidable working together as a wee tag-team.
The main thrust for all three should be to enthuse and maximise the Pro-Indy Vote in HR 2026 for the ELECTABLE Pro-Indy Parties (not also-rans like Alba).
In the real World Scots are warming to the Swinney/Forbes partnership and this should be built upon.
Optimism is beginning to return, irrespective what some of the nihilistic misfits on here 'think'.
Purely my opinion, if course.
the chief dogger will impress me the day he writes a second article - every single one is a copy paste - the tories are bad, vote SNP; you don't say! he paul where can I paypal my wages to you??
Deleteas for smalltown boy, if its not carbon neutral brazilian trannies for gender reform and arms for ukraine, he does not want it
2 crap sites, and everything that is wrong with the indy movement - bourgeois leftism and devolutionist, Im alright jack, this far and no more (fat civil service pension) faux nat, accommodationism
Stop taking the drugs and seek help.
DeleteRegardless of the merits of your suggestion, David, it’s clear James doesn’t like being told what he should and shouldn’t write about. You are doing the former. He’s always said he wants to do his own thing.
DeleteDavid Francis very kindly confirming my point that he claims to be against Israeli aggression but here he is promoting the Wee Ginger SNP propaganda site despite it having a regular poster more than happy to cheer on Israeli mass murder. David is happy to tell James to ban independence supporters on SGP, but is silent about that poster on WGD. David says the site that hosts an Israeli cheerleader is " excellent."
DeletePlay yer flute, bang the drum, bowler hat and sash
DeleteIfS: there have been Reform nutters posting on this site.
DeleteAnon at 2.00pm - if you think David is a Unionist just say so. No need to be so nasty about it.
DeleteAnon at 2.20pm - if you want to make a point I recommend using more than 10 words. Don't be lazy be clear.
DeleteAnon at 1.52pm - SGP has been in existence for a long time and anyone reading it would know what you said. Yet David persists despite being given a warning by James.
DeleteAs I said, James, irrespective of what some nihilistic, irrelevant nonentities on here 'think', I reckon it is time for a more concerted effort from sites like this, falling in behind Swinney and Forbes.
ReplyDeleteAs even the Tory commentator I recently highlighted pointed out - and as the polls now generally show - SNP are once again in the ascendancy, as their main unionist rivals either eat themselves or just gradually fade away. There is now a very good chance of achieving another Pro-Indy Scottish Parliament and Government (and that is, in no small measure, due to Swinney/Forbes' growing popularity with the folk who really matter, the voters).
And as anyone with a modicum of sense knows, those two things are imperatives if we are to keep the Indy Dream alive.
I have never totally agreed with everything Kavanagh, Small and even you have said and have had 'differences of opinion/arguments' with you all - such is my nature - but that is all water under the bridge.
Time for all genuine Yessers to unite behind the drive to get SNP re-elected into Scotgovt with an overall majority if possible and also time to completely ignore the small coterie of cretins on here who would block that idea due to their intractible and irreversible hatred of the Scottish National Party and their febrile desire to bring about its demise.
They offer, and have, NOTHING to take its place, though - and are merely mouthpieces for the more and more inconsequential Bath Balloon.
Onwards and upwards, Dug, Bella and SgP
David Francis continues to promote the SNP and make out they’re a GREAT party.
DeleteIf they were as GREAT as what he attempts to make out, why is support for them languishing down at 31%?
Yet more UTTER PISH from SGP’s Mr Angry.
His frustration at being played like a tacky wee plastic fiddle all these years by a party led by Brits has got to go somewhere. That somewhere is IFS, his mancrush. Keeps Davey at it all day, every day. What an inspiration.
DeleteIFS is a party of 1 but in his head he leads thousands.
ReplyDeleteHis head is a vacant lot, mate.
Delete“ Water under the bridge “ that would be a torrent of water.
ReplyDelete“ They offer, and have , NOTHING “ de facto referendum seems to always escape your mind.
Exactly. Scotland has one lever:we vote for INDEPENDENCE in a regular election framed as an independence referendum. Simple. All it takes is for the first minister to publicly commit to do it.
DeleteBut he doesnae. That’s the problem. All of it. Brits at the top.
When is the big election for ALBA or has it been decided already?
ReplyDeleteI see the poor wee irrelevant Anons are still passing round their single neuron between them.
ReplyDeleteSad little nobodies.
🎶🎶🎶🎶🎶There’s only one David Francis, one David Francis 🎶🎶🎶🎶🎶
ReplyDeleteIf only. There’s too many of us plonkers still believing the carrot’s just one more step away, keeping these devo grifter Brits in power.
DeleteJust One More HEAVE! #FreeBy2023
DeleteIf only the nation had got behind Alba !
DeleteAt this moment, it is a good time to be a supporter of the SNP, as John Swinney has successfully steered the party back to high public support, with the latest opinion polls in Scotland reflecting an improvement, demonstrating that his steady hand, political experience, and ability to reconnect with ordinary voters have revitalized the SNP’s standing and established its position signaling a shift in the political landscape.
ReplyDelete