As far as I know, the Holyrood numbers from the Survation poll have not yet been officially released, but the crossbreaks in the data tables seem to give the game away. I've had to calculate the percentages manually. I can't guarantee these will be the headline numbers, because there may be some filter yet to be applied. But I suspect these are pretty much bang on the money.
Constituency ballot:
SNP 34.7%
Labour 22.6%
Reform UK 13.7%
Conservatives 13.4%
Liberal Democrats 8.3%
Greens 5.4%
Alba 1.4%
Regional list ballot:
SNP 30.6%
Labour 21.1%
Reform UK 13.8%
Conservatives 13.6%
Liberal Democrats 10.2%
Greens 8.2%
Alba 2.2%
Seats projection: SNP 53, Labour 24, Reform UK 16, Conservatives 16, Liberal Democrats 11, Greens 9
So not quite a pro-independence majority this time, but very close - pro-indy parties in combination would have 62 seats, and unionist parties would have 67.
And if I may very gently adapt Chris McEleny's favourite turn of phrase, this is "yet another poll" showing Alba firmly on course for zero seats in 2026. They wouldn't even be anywhere close to winning a seat.
Labour powering ahead on these numbers, Keir’s doubters shown up for the blowhards that they indubitably are.
ReplyDeleteAh satire. It’s true what they say.
DeleteNice base to build from.
ReplyDeleteA base to build for who exactly???
DeleteSNP???
SNP have lost 1/3rd of their 45% base vote.. Do you think they’re coming back? Most aren’t voting. After that they’re voting reform or labour.
Iv been political & pro indy all of my life, Was SNP member over 20 years…Never voted last year - couldn’t stomach SNP. Will never vote unionist, especially reform. SNP are currently Unionist Lite…Err I mean devolutionist (same thing), so I won’t vote them.
If Alba aren’t the alternative party, I’ll vote ISP or not vote. I don’t expect either to get elected. 1 seat is enough for a difference.
I aint coming back to the SNP until major changes happen.
If you think those changes are on their way, you’re deluded.
Steve.
Byeeee. Don’t rush back.
DeleteCopying Kamala and Hillary's playbook, are you, 5:05?
Delete"No, don't vote for us. We would rather lose than come off our high horse for you."
Enjoy your trumping.
How do we get. The 20 odd % independence supporters in labour to vote in 2026 for a pro independence part?
ReplyDeleteBy being convincing on independence rather than rehashing the 2021 manifesto?
DeleteOr the Greens to vote SNP in the first vote?
ReplyDeleteWe're going to have a limbo 'government SNP' winning elections but nowhere near 'independence rebellion SNP' by the looks of things for many years.
ReplyDeleteTop of the poll but nowhere near 50%. I suppose we'll get a few policies out of it but indy won't come from treading water. It'll need to be a resurgence.
It's like the PNV basque party. Been in power for donkeys but actually never close to doing anything. Enough to win but curtailed by day-to-day governing to cut through with a radical movement.
DeleteAt the rate we're going House of Lords reform might actually happen first!
DeleteDoubt it -labour , tories, Lib Dem’s like the ermine robe too much.
ReplyDelete3.6bn pounds in this Labour MPs family bank account out of Bangladesh.
ReplyDeleteThat's a lot of motorhomes
That Alba Party 2.2% list showing represents pure wasted votes.
ReplyDeleteHey y’all! Games up. Come home to the SNP.
See to be fair. The SNP took us to court without a plan to follow through when the inevitable British court did their duty.
DeleteIt was a despicable way to treat a centuries old cause. Ingesting London veto in the minds of our people which will be hard to remove. We even had clowns in the SNP briefing against their own strategy while in full flight.
I'm voting for them but let's not pretend theyre great shakes.
The SNP is more borstal than home.
DeleteBy going to court the SNP did Scotland the favour it needed by showing what the British were prepared to do to hold onto their possession
DeleteIn the face of that court's decision the people of Scotland did absolutely nothing about being told they have no voice and no say
The SNP tried to demonstrate that fact and the population gave them no support
Scotland's problem is Scotland's lazy people prepared to accept anything the British do to them
Nicola Sturgeon could've allowed the British to burn her at the stake like Joan of Arc and still the people would've sat on their lazy Arses and done nothing
If she's out of things for good Scotland only has itself to blame
'If she's out of things for good' Scotland should be bloody grateful!
DeleteNicola Sturgeon as Joan of Arc - now there is something you don't read every day -thankfully. This poster is absolutely bonkers and like WOS seems to hate Scots.
DeleteYou've lost your bearings. Independence is home.
DeleteDrJim @ 8:02 it is frankly a shameful stain on an ungrateful world that we do not yet have UN Secretary General Nicola Sturgeon
DeleteAnd do what? Lick Swinney & Sturgeon’s boots?
DeleteNot really - far more SNP list votes are wasted than 2.2%.
DeleteEspecially when you consider the calibre of who they elect.
I actually agree with Anon at 8:02 PM
DeleteThe UKSC told Scotland "You are our colony: no freedom for you".
It was needed, and if I have this right, it brought an increase in support for Independence. It also helped to make the "colony" talk mainstream rather than being the talk of nutters. Much like Indy Ref made Independence mainstream.
No matter HOW we vote, we all have the right to vote on our future - that's self-determination as opposed to being a colony of slaves.
Wooo! Unionist party of traitors who conspired to put an innocent man in prison while holding an entire country hostage may be largest party.
ReplyDeleteBet YOU'RE proud now that you've gone back to worshipping murrell's rancid arse.
There was always the option of not expelling me, Chris (or whichever one you are). Whatever my misgivings about Alba's strategy, I was fully committed to the party, but then it expelled me on a bunch of ridiculously vague trumped up charges. Frankly, nobody in Alba is in any position to complain about any decisions I made after that point.
DeleteI wouldnt have dignified that last post with a reply James.
DeleteWho does anon at 650pm think they are. So those of us who have wanted independence for our adult life are unionist traitors. Sorry to disappoint their perverted mind. It is them that turn off individuals to independence with their extreme we are “the ideology pure”. Thankfully most of us see the sanctimonious bleating. They are failures.
DeleteAnon at 6:50.
DeleteTit.
We are witnessing the disintegration of what was ,quite frankly ,an irrelevant grouping of disgruntled narcissists.
DeletePersonally I couldnt give two hoots what happens to Alba.
Alex Salmond was not innocent, he was just not legally guilty of the specific charges against him
DeleteThat's a massive difference from innocent
Let's be honest: Everyone who's ever ended up in court is bound to have been guilty of something!
DeleteAnon @ 8.04pm has just got to be Dr Jim. IFS says you admitted to regularly assaulting women. Innocent or guilty Dr Jim?
DeleteAnon @8-56pm See ya.
DeleteJames...I'm pretty sure Anon@9-07 pm has crossed a red-line.
DeleteI'm checking with others.Your thoughts?
9.13pm - crossed a red line - is that on the London Underground?
DeleteRip Van Winkle (Anon at 6:50 PM)
DeleteYou do know Murrell isn't even an SNP member now, don't you?
Interesting times. That poll makes the regional combined vote for Reform/Tories almost as popular as the SNP. And how did Reform go from nowhere to polling as the third Holyrood party? Weird. I guess that not listening to anything they say and regarding them as schemie fascist scum isn't as clever as some people think.
ReplyDeletePardon?
DeleteWhen Farage is given a standing ovation at an AfD rally in Germany - AfD being widely acknowledged right across Europe as a Fascist Party - maybe his new Party, Reform UK, IS Fascist Scum, just like him?
everyone I dont like is a fascist
Deletedeep political analysis
come on dave, give us a "literally hitler" while you are at it
Lol
DeleteYeah......plenty of Non-Fascists attend Fascist Rallies, pal.
Probably been there yourself, eh?
Enjoy -
Deletehttps://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/08/04/ccbp-a04.html
Not so much weird as weirdos.
DeleteThat was my post with the link.
DeleteHeadline was -
'Alternative for Germany positions itself as open fascist party for the 2024 European election'
I'm a schemie and have nae problem as regarding them as fascists.
DeleteI would remove 'interesting times' and replace with 'worrying times'........(unless your surname is Goebbels and your preferred bedtime snooze-book is Mein Kampf
DeleteNigel F is many things but I'm not sure about "schemie"
DeleteThat's unfair. Inheritance tax is the number one concern on most council estates.
DeleteThen fox hunting.
DeleteNowadays if the governing party had 53 MSP's, nearly half of them would be cabinet secretaries or ministers for something or other (my favourite is the 'minister for victims', with another favourite being a minister getting about a £11,000 pay rise). Mind you, the minister for The Promise deserves a mention.
ReplyDeleteFor the lols: Minister for Independence and then abolishing the role after them not doing anything other than claiming a nice salary!
DeletePeter A Bell is doing his nut on the National comments. I guess that his new party isn't quite a success that he thought it be !
ReplyDeletePeter A Bell has a nut?.......well knock me doon wae a JCB.
DeleteMakes a change from him nutting I suppose
DeleteA party of one. Almost as successful as his blog. I know I know. I
DeleteDavid Francis - I can just see you next year campaigning for the SNP at the Holyrood election.
ReplyDelete“Vote SNP the lesser of the political party evils.”
"Vote Alba or Big Chris or Taz will get ye"
DeleteAnon at 9:40 -
DeleteWhat other 'lesser evil' would you prefer, then?
The level of commentary on here has deteriorated rapidly in the last couple of days with what passes for discourse almost indistinguishable from the contents posted on the Wee Grifter Dug site.
DeleteAnon at 10:27 -
DeleteWhat is your preferred site, then?
I take this one more seriously:
Deletehttps://www.beano.com/comic
No great surprise.
DeleteSuits you.
“Vote SNP the lesser of the political party evils.”
DeleteTo be fair, that's a way better slogan than "Stronger for Scotland".
Politicians are probably at their lowest popularity, like, ever.
I see IFS is ducking back down under anon cover.
DeleteSturgeon has been very brave. She can lead again.
ReplyDeleteHope this is a joke.
DeleteShe's our Saviour. Only she can annihilate the SNP.
DeleteLooking at this polling I think the ALBA vote is largely confined to Little Cumbrae on the Clyde with a few smattering of votes along West bay Millport on Great Cumbrae. It's a tall order but ALBA may pick up a vote on uninhabited Ailsa Craig come the next Scottish election.
ReplyDeletePoor McEleny didn't even hold his council seat. Bless.
DeleteI got told Cumbrae is mainly English ex pats, part time Americano’s and a few Italians.
ReplyDeleteIt's always been like that although compared to other islands, Cumbrae does have a much lower English ex pat head count a exceedingly high weegie count.
DeleteLabour 24, Reform UK 16, Conservatives 16, Liberal Democrats 11 = 67 seats
ReplyDeleteSNP 53, Greens 9 = 62 seats
And the only thing that matters for a majority are the 'list' figures. So much as I want independence, I can't see SNP/Greens delivering it. Or even running Holyrood, unless they dig themselves further out of the hole they've dug themselves.
The hole they've dug for independence, you mean. Their careers are still going quite comfortably, all the more so now.
DeleteThat hole is for Scotland's future.
Hi James.
ReplyDeleteGenuine question. Would you like to see Alba fail?
I understand some of them treated you unfairly.
Do you think that is representative of the whole party?
Do you think any party is immune to this?
Do you think the SNP leadership are any less ruthless?
Do you think Sturgeon’s leadership of SNP was any less ruthless?
With regards to my last question, I’d wager Sturgeon was ruthless as or perhaps more ruthless than Starmer, and her legacy is that she’s destroyed any chance for normal, decent folk like yourself to have an impact on that party.
I wish you the best in the SNP. I don’t blame you for rejoining. Certain folk in Alba are clearly arseholes (putting it lightly), but they’re not as powerful as the cabal who rules your new party. In small unelectable (ha!) parties, small folk still have a say…
To bring it back to my original question - Would you like to see Alba succeed and elected to Scottish parliament?
I would. Not because I like them - I like some. But because, an alternative Yes party in our parliament is the best possible threat to Devolutionist SNP cabal, & the best strategy to redirecting us towards Independence.
So… if you would like them to succeed, I ask that you be the bigger man & minimise the ridicule.
If you wouldn’t like them to succeed, then ask yourself why that is.
All the best.
Steve (inactive ALBA member)
Inactive for a reason - I don’t like political types - mostly self important arseholes.
"If you wouldn’t like them to succeed, then ask yourself why that is."
DeleteThat's a much less complex question than you seem to think it is. I can only be in one party at a time. Alba have expelled me on utterly ridiculous trumped up charges, which permanently excludes them as an option for me. Of the options remaining, I have chosen to join the SNP after careful and lengthy consideration. That naturally means I now want the SNP to succeed, and for any party to succeed it means it will be doing well at the expense of other parties, including Alba. Why would I still be cheering Alba on now that I've been expelled and have joined another party? That would be a very, very odd thing to do, and you know that perfectly well.
As I said two days ago, I do believe from my direct experience of McEleny and Ahmed-Sheikh that Alba is a somewhat more autocratic party than the SNP. You clearly take the opposite view, in which case it's time for some self-reflection from you. Are you really confident that you fully appreciate just how grim things are at the top of your own party? Have you seen things as up-close as I have?
And there's one other thing you're going to have to face up to. Pointing out that Alba are on course for zero seats is not "ridicule", or a failure to be "the bigger man". It's a statement of simple truth. It may not be a truth you want to hear or are ready to hear, but it's a truth nonetheless.
"I can only be in one party at a time."
DeleteI can do better than that.
So can Craig Murray.
DeleteI luv parties!
DeleteAs long as James Kelly isn't in the kitchen smelling of chip fat.
Come off it, 9:38. The nudge-nudge wink-wink best buddy party spot for SNP supporters is already occupied by wee Patrick and his merry men, trans cis or not otherwise stated.
DeleteMay I just say to Shannon Donoghue that she is the life and soul of the party.
DeleteHi James. Thanks for replying.
Delete“That naturally means I now want the SNP to succeed, and for any party to succeed it means it will be doing well at the expense of other parties, including Alba”
What’s more important - the party or the movement? I’d say the latter. The best winning strategy for Yes would be a united Yes strategy of SNP 1, whoever you like 2. Alba aren’t the SNP’s enemy - Unionists are.
Alba need to do more here too, i’d like them to come to a shared platform agreement ISP and others for 2026. Lead by example. SNP 1 & 2 does nothing for unity within our movement.
“Are you really confident that you fully appreciate just how grim things are at the top of your own party? “
You have a face to face perspective that I don’t. But i’m 100% certain none of the Alba leadership were involved in a conspiracy to jail an innocent man based on very public and very false accusations. I’m also 100% certain none of them were involved in a cover up of that same conspiracy. That’s a level of corruption well beyond what you experienced.
Whatever they’ve been up to is shameful, shouldn’t be ignored, & I applaud you for sticking up for yourself - the picked a fight with the wrong blogger 👍…but it’s nothing in comparison to the sins of the ruling crop in the SNP.
As I said earlier - which party you chose to join is up to you, & i won’t hold it against you for joining one I feel is a lost cause. We could both be right & wrong simultaneously…both SNP & Alba could be a lost cause 😅….
However.. unity of the movement is more important than whichever party we are members of.
If you want to vote SNP1 SNP 2, that’s fine, it’s up to you. If you want to advocate that position, it’s also fine, it’s what you believe in. However, if.advocate that position and carry on mocking Alba and their chances you, alienate those more inclined to vote Alba. I’m currently unsure what i’ll do with my first vote - If I see unity from the SNP & their supporters, they can have it otherwise it is likely spoiled.
All the best.
Steve, from Alba
"What’s more important - the party or the movement? I’d say the latter."
DeleteThat sounds fine as a platitude, but your problem is that Alba is not the movement. The SNP constitutes a far, far bigger segment of the movement than Alba does. The non-SNP segment of the movement is of course very substantial, but Alba have alienated most of it. And that problem has been caused by Alba, not by the people who have been driven out of Alba or been expelled outright.
"If you want to vote SNP1 SNP 2, that’s fine"
Please stop cynically misrepresenting the list vote as a second preference vote. There is no 1, there is no 2. AMS is not a preferential system. There are two separate ballots, of which the list ballot is the more important, and people will naturally use it to vote for their first choice party. To expect members of a political party to vote against their own party on the more important ballot is just completely bonkers.
"However, if.advocate that position and carry on mocking Alba..."
The message just isn't getting through, is it? Pointing out that Alba is on course for zero seats is not "mockery". It's not "ridicule". It's a statement of cold, hard, objective fact. If you don't like that fact, stop shooting the messenger and start making the necessary changes to your party. Although admittedly, as soon as you start pressing for reform, you'll be suspended or expelled, so I do understand your dilemma.
"but it’s nothing in comparison to the sins of the ruling crop in the SNP."
No, I'm afraid that's wrong, and you're sticking your head in the sand here. The suspension/expulsion rate is much higher in Alba than in the SNP. You can hark back to what happened to Alex Salmond as much as you like, but that doesn't change the fact that in terms of ordinary rank-and-file members' experience, Alba is now the more autocratic of the two parties.
Mmmm, Kevin McKenna. Some might say at his best. I love this:
ReplyDelete"Kevin McKenna is a Herald writer and columnist. This year is his 40th in newspapers. Among his paltry list of professional achievements is that he’s never been approached by any political party or lobbying firm to be on their payroll."
https://archive.is/jCx7y
McKenna, former editor of the Scottish Daily Mail, still kidding his readers on that he supports Scottish independence.
DeleteRecently our YES group had a discussion on strategy for independence. This arose from notice of an upcoming meeting which is trying to put two significant strands of the non party indy movement into, at least, a conversation in the same room.
ReplyDeleteWe made a little bit of progress on clarity by getting broad agreement that a sound majority vote in a major election had to be coupled with an active exit strategy to cancel the writ of the British state in Scotland. Getting the second part of this recognised within the group has taken some time.
While the rise of right wing populism (Reform) continues, with it's attendant fascist street mobs close by but at deniable distance, we assessed that:
1. 2026 is our only upcoming opportunity to achieve a majority but d' Hondt makes that very difficult;
2. The assessment of those still active in the SNP was that there is still little sign of any recognition in the party leadership that 'good governance' and general competence will never get us clear of crumbling Britain.
While none of the above is new it was the first time that the conversation had gone through it in one piece. A few nervous smiles ensued and we now go forward to the meeting in which we hope a few new activist links will be made.
My individual takeaway was odd. We had planned a small bit of constructive progress, which was pleasing, but had finally faced the fact that we are still in a strategic dead end facing a rising force which, if it ever gains power, will likely end the process for us by authoritarian means which we are hopelessly, politically unprepared to deal with.
Emotionally, I hope that age is making me too pessimistic but.....
Anyone got any further information on possibilities of a unified Yes list approach?
ReplyDeleteIt’s obviously necessary to do this. A blind man (with no ego) can see it , or does this all have to wait for a possible positive outcome in Alba’s leadership election first.
IMO No unified Yes = No progress to independence
It’s that simple
Alba are already an irrelevance irrespective of who leads them. They peaked when A S was alive. They are left with one serious politician. The rest are no hopers.
DeleteOnly some activists would pay any attention to any attempt at co-ordinating the list vote. Voters just vote.
DeleteI assume the one serious politician isn’t an MSP then?
ReplyDelete