The general assumption is that Kemi Badenoch is just minutes away from becoming leader of the Conservative Party, and I expect that assumption to prove correct - although other types of election have proved highly unpredictable in recent years, ballots of Tory members have always played out exactly as billed. If so, Badenoch will surprisingly be inheriting an outright Tory lead, and the question now is whether Tory leads will become the norm over the next four or five years. In spite of her own obvious shortcomings, that may well be the case.
BMG poll of GB-wide voting intentions (30th-31st October):
Labour 28%
Reform UK 17%
Liberal Democrats 13%
Greens 8%
The fieldwork dates for the poll were the day of the Budget and the day after, although the impression given is that it's a post-Budget poll, ie. the Wednesday fieldwork started after Rachel Reeves had finished her speech. If so, this is particularly disappointing for Labour, because it suggests that what they thought of as their trump card hasn't staved off crossover.
That said, there's also a Techne poll with similar fieldwork dates showing a slight increase in the Labour lead, albeit well within the margin of error and statistically insignificant.
Between the Trussmageddon of September 2022 and the general election of July 2024, the Tories never even came close to claiming the lead in a single poll. They seemed to have Everest to climb, and yet it's taken only four months of the public seeing what Starmer is actually like in power for that Everest to be climbed. In Scotland the hope must be that this will translate into a sustained SNP lead.
As I keep saying, the budget gives the SNP Government a golden opportunity to shake Labour off their tails - simply reinstate universal Winter Fuel Payments.
ReplyDeleteCoup! Coup!
You and IfS and me.
DeleteBut do any of us believe Swinney will do it? A first minister pursuing independence would, guaranteed.
It's so bloody obvious but you end up with SNP leadership supporters posting on SGP not to do it and stating the young need it more. Of course if the SNP do revert the WFP decision then the same people will just change their minds. SNP drones - no mind of their own. The same people who backed jury free trials now gone silent as the SNP change. SNP drones.
Delete" The time has come to tell the truth " says Badenoch - she has already done that by making it clear Scotland is owned by England.
There will never be another sec30 referendum never ever and Sturgeon's gang have been lying about this for years and includes bloggers like Kavanagh - wasted year after year with this crap.
The Tories think they have elected a black Thatcher.
The tripartite who don’t vote snp telling snp leadership what to do. So what’s new. Oh it's Nicolas Sturgeon’s fault of course. The broken records of ALBA ISP etc who can’t get elected and it’s everyone else’s vote.
DeleteAnon at 12.00pm - it's not Sturgeon's fault. It's your fault. Get that tattoo - " 19/10/23 I will be fooled again and again" unless of course you are a Britnat then your tatto should be " House Jock" .
DeleteIFS: "The same people who backed jury free trials now gone silent as the SNP change."
DeleteBut they're not even consistent. They back the opinion of an American judge who "explains" a jury verdict by saying they really did find Trump was a rapist, when they didn't. Juries don't have to explain their verdicts, even in the USA. So no judge can "explain" their verdict. Hey - we don't like Trump (who does!) so let's alter the facts to suit our opinions!
Anon at 12.00 pm. I voted SNP you numbnut clown. For my ex-MP Patricia Gibson who campaigned for WASPI women. Do you need me to explain "WASPI" in words of one syllable?
Sure, KC. People never change their minds, and only Scots should ever Wheesht.
DeleteYesindyref2 - I agree and that is the main thrust of my point. They are drones - they just follow what ever the SNP or Kavanagh say even though they twist themselves inside out and then back again.
DeleteI voted SNP constituency in 2021 and I said at the time Sturgeon will NOT deliver any referendum and it will be the last time I vote SNP until Sturgeon and her gang are gone from the SNP. They are Britnat cuckoos in the SNP nest.
I didn't see any money being set aside in the budget for the WASPI women. The UK really is a shithouse of a country. Money for the infected blood scandal many many decades later and money for the Post Office Scandal decades later as well. The Britnats will find a budget for the WASPI women many decades later when the majority are long dead.
How cosy. Ifs and yi2.
DeleteMuppet.
DeleteEnglish politics is topsy turvy now, enough to make feart No voting Scots well sick. The time is ripe for shifting loyalties.
ReplyDeleteNow if only we had some sort of proposition to offer them full of hope and protection from England's wild desires? If only we had the instrument of devolved government to prove that things can and must be very different in Scotland? If only we had a party and a leader who inspired us?
That would be a thing!
It was a thing 10 years ago and can be again. The first step is to get rid of Sturgeon's gang.
DeleteIndeed. But how? Join the party, hope for Swinney to resign, and hope for Kate to stand in the hopeful leadership contest to replace him? And hope Kate proves herself to be more ambitious than still another Devolutionist caretaker of Scotland's demise?
DeleteSomething tells me it's not going to be an easy fight.
In fact, the greater the threat of prison time, the tighter the gang's grip will be. They can't afford a democratic leadership who will no longer deform itself to protect them.
KC - better get on Amazon and buy himself an XXL box of hankies.
ReplyDeleteBadenoch is a gift to Scottish independence. If only we had political leaders who want to take advantage of all these free gifts by the Britnats. Badenoch tells the truth that England thinks it owns Scotland. When Tories say they are unionists that is code for they are colonialists. Scotland is England's colony. If you accept that then you are a pathetic House Jock.
So much crap that SNP supporters accepted - including that the Britnats would give in to the "democratic deficit." Blackford/Sturgeon/Swinney gone silent on this. If you still think they will deliver independence get that tattoo on your hand " 19/10/23 I will be fooled again and again. "
SNP supporters need to accept they have been fooled and work out a way to get rid of the Britnat cuckoos in the SNP nest.
There's nothing quite like a Zoomer leading the Tories—and England willing to support them—to give you wings!
Delete@IFS, Folk like you are the reason more people are rejoining the SNP
DeletePeter Murrell you don’t have a track record of telling the truth about SNP membership numbers. So unless you provide some evidence the only sensible conclusion is you are lying again.
DeleteOr, alternatively it’s that dickhead Dr Jim posting again.
It's nasty numpty Dr Jim at 11.20pm. I remember both he and Scottish Skier used to post on WGD that the membership numbers had gone up by 10,000 ( clearly made up) until Foote resigned telling everybody that Murrell lied to him about the membership numbers. Murrell subsequently resigned. Instead of increasing by 10k as the WGD numpties claimed the numbers had actually plummeted by about 50,000. Dr Jim and Scottish Skier - liars the pair of them and Dr Jim is back with the same pathetic lie.
DeleteCorrection: Dr Jim at 10.39pm not 11.20pm
DeleteMiles off topic if you’ll forgive me, but in case anyone from the Scottish Government is reading, I couldn’t help but notice this news story: https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/tasmania-s-brand-new-ferry-will-be-laid-up-in-scotland-for-two-years
ReplyDeletePutting to one side the obvious point that Australia can’t manage independence due to this fiasco, maybe instead of having this brand new ferry sitting at Leith for a few years we could put it to good use on the west coast somewhere. The article even mentions the possibility of leasing it to a third party. Worth thinking about surely.
It is too big for any of our docking facilities. - Grouser
DeleteCan’t believe the Tories have elected Badenoch as leader. As a consequence I’ll be boycotting Kingussie.
ReplyDeletePlease don't abandon Newtonmore!
DeleteIsn't this more of a Reform story? They appear to be eating into both Labour's and the Tories' votes. Assuming Reform splits 30/70 Labour/Tory then that has the RW block in a comfortable lead. On these numbers Kemi Badenoch (for she's won I see) will become an advocate for PR. As Nigel Farage is already there this seems a possibility.
ReplyDeleteThe Tories will oppose PR with a passion for as long as they hope to return to their rightful place as the Natural Party of Government. FPTP has been their bulwark for generations. They love it even more than Labour.
DeleteYou'll know they think they're doomed if they ever change their stance. PR is surrender to oblivion for them.
Today's Cairnstoon accurately summarises John REDACTOR MAN Swinney's role as deputy FM and now FM for cover ups. Desperately trying to keep the skeletons hidden in the cupboard. What a legacy.
ReplyDeleteIt's a good one. Here's the one I think will stand as his greatest for all time:
Deletehttps://wingsoverscotland.com/the-road-not-taken/
I remember when his cartoons had Nicola triumphant over bully Brits. How times have changed! And it's not Cairns who changed sides.
THE ROAD NOT TAKEN
DeleteIt is spot on anon at 12.25pm. " Other stuff " - like rapists in women's prisons and men counselling female rape victims. Sturgeon and her gang the greatest betrayers of Scotland since the parliament leaders in 1707. They were chased out of Scotland fearing for their lives for going against the wishes of the people of Scotland. It ushered in brutal massacres in Scotland and centuries of subjugation and subservience to England.
Wings over Scotland.Jesus H Christ. Stop mentioning that unionist twerp.
DeleteChris Cairns, actually. You mentioned the other fella. He just pays Cairns to host his weekend political comics on his site. Cairns is easily the best satirist in Scotland. He's our Martin Rowson.
DeleteIfs - you really don’t believe in any form of independence- however is in charge you attack giving sustenance to the unionists. I predict your 1 person party will never ever deliver anything. You know it , we know it.
DeleteThe Muppet show has started. IFS is not a party but ISP is. You predict nothing Muppet. Your proof reading is non existent and your opinion is worthless.
DeleteThere's a great need for these Scottish Labour MP charlatans to be removed from office by the SNP in 2028. Even after four months, it's been a long time coming. Let's be clear: Labour are CHARLATANS.
ReplyDeleteI'm still waiting for my new Labour MP, Dr Zubir Ahmed, to reply to any of the three letters I have sent him since his election. Can't even find contact details for the man, apart from the House of Commons or his constituency office. He is hiding from his constituents, I think, and with good reason.
DeleteGrouser
Just to clarify my post - Dr Zubir Ahmed does not yet appear to have a constituency office at which he can be contacted.
DeleteGrouser
Anon at 2.38pm - what's happening in 2028?
DeleteI assume they did the arithmetic 2024 + 4. They're wrong though. No way will Starmer (or whoever replaces him) go a minute before their full 5 year term is finished, not if the polls say they're getting beat.
DeleteThey are CHARLATANS.
DeleteLabour got into power on a fluke. They are going to be the most unpopular government in history. The Tories sitting in opposition for 5 years watching the trash opposite them implode will be the funniest thing in UK politics.
ReplyDeleteLast I heard pal, think it was aboot couple of weeks ago, the SG we’re making positive noises aboot it being in service in time for the ‘26 HR election
ReplyDeleteYou seem to be sorely lacking for "entertainment" the hours of the day you come here to spout the same old pish, KC.
ReplyDeleteLabour behind the Tories already KC.
ReplyDeleteLabour behind the Tories already KC. Get your hankies out House Jock.
ReplyDeleteI heard you the first time wee man.
DeleteLabour behind the Tories already KC - strike three.
DeleteEngland is a right wing shithouse of a country in which the English King Charlieboy rips off the taxpayer.
Usual bullshit from you IFS.
DeleteIf it’s that big a shithouse, why do the vast majority of polls continue to show a clear majority are in favour of remaining in the union? Ask yourself that question.
You remain in a minority, independence ain’t ever happening.
Seriously, you need to get over it!
It ain't no union KC. The speaker of the House of Commons stated in 1707 that England had captured Scotland and would hold it fast. It's a colonial relationship.
DeleteHideous response from ifs to my post @8:11.
DeleteWhere is the pretend ISP? Behind ALBA? Lib Dem’s? Greens? Do they have any policies.
ReplyDeleteYes Scottish independence unlike the SNP.
DeleteYou’re wrong of course. Still lying is the Britnat default.
DeleteWho the f*** is this KC?
ReplyDeleteBeen asking that for days
DeleteIt's you, boy.
DeleteIn other news, from the rugby. Scotland beat Fiji 57-17, England lost to NZ 22-24, so the rankings are:
ReplyDelete1 Ireland 92.12
2 South Africa 91.77
3 New Zealand 89.67 (+0.97)
4 France 86.96
5 England 84.43 (-0.97)
6 Argentina 84.30
7 Scotland 83.39 (+0.57)
8 Italy 79.98
9 (↑10) Australia 79.32
10 (↓9) Fiji 79.07 (-0.57)
No idea how that will format!
I like pie.
ReplyDeleteAnd you’re a dick
ReplyDelete