Looked at from that point of view, the early signs are ominous for the Brit Nats, because More In Common's first GB-wide poll since Badenoch became leader shows the Tories surging into the lead.
GB-wide voting intentions (More In Common, 8th-11th November 2024):
Conservatives 29% (+3)
Labour 27% (-1)
Reform UK 19% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-3)
Greens 8% (-)
SNP 2% (-1)
James Cleverly's elimination from the leadership election was supposed to be Christmas come early for Labour because he was purportedly more voter-friendly than Badenoch, but that ignored the fact that the biggest obstacle the Tories have faced in recent times is the split in their natural support base between themselves and Reform UK. Badenoch would seem to be far better placed than Cleverly to woo Reform voters back, and although there's no real sign that she's succeeded in doing that yet, both the polls conducted since she became leader have shown the Tory vote increasing rather than decreasing (with the caveat that the increase is minor and statistically insignificant in the case of the Techne poll).
* * *
You may well already have seen the video below, but if not I urge you to watch it, because it moves discussion about the genocide in Gaza into a radically new phase. Apologists for Israel have until now tried to play a philosophical game by arguing that it doesn't matter how many tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians are mass-slaughtered, as long as Israel can nominally claim to have been targeting Hamas in each strike, regardless of how wildly implausible that claim often is, eg. "yeah we bombed the hospital and killed dozens of patients and doctors but that was only because the terrorists buried their GOLD there". The idea is that it may not technically be genocide if you can muddy the waters about "intent" and "purpose" and make a case that civilians have only been mass-killed "incidentally". But when you have a credible witness setting out how Israel have on a daily basis used drones to precisely target individual children to murder, you move beyond differing interpretations of possible 'indirect' acts of genocide, and are left with indisputable evidence of a genocide that is every bit as direct, calculated and industrial as the Holocaust, the Srebrenica massacre or the Rwanda genocide. European politicians have thus far been let off the hook of facing up to that fact thanks to Israel doing its utmost to prevent any independent witnesses to the genocide, so that the pretence can be maintained that this is simply a conflict like previous ones Israel has been involved in, albeit with the customarily insane number of non-Israeli civilian casualties.
To answer the question asked by John Mason and others "if Israel wanted to commit genocide, why haven't they killed ten times as many people?", I'd have thought the answer was pretty obvious - they want to exterminate Palestinians at the maximum scale and speed consistent with retaining the support of the United States. For any other country that would be an almost impossible balancing act, but not for Israel - and with the incoming Trump administration offering Netanyahu a blank cheque, we may now see the rate of the mass killings increase dramatically to something akin to the murder of Jews in the gas chambers. The obvious question for us in this country is: what, if anything, will Keir Starmer and David Lammy say and do while this happens? And if they do nothing other than moronically parrot the words "Israel has the right to defend herself", what will be the long-term consequences for themselves, the Labour party, and the continued viability of the United Kingdom?
Where is the International Criminal Court?
— sarah (@sahouraxo) November 12, 2024
British surgeon Nizam Mamode broke down in UK Parliament, describing Israel’s quadcopters DELIBERATELY TARGETING CHILDREN who had just been bombed.
pic.twitter.com/oGPYyDFBoz
Any sense of justice whatsoever is looking ever increasingly "antisemitic."
ReplyDeleteJust found this while, curiously, looking for something like it!
ReplyDeletehttps://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50658-why-did-britons-vote-the-way-they-did-in-2024
"What were the main reasons Britons voted Labour at the 2024 general election? ... To get rid of the Conservatives 34%"
But for Reform UK it was: "To control immigration 34%"
I'm getting there ... having looked at the stage transfers for the Fraserburgh by-election you get for when Reform UK was eliminated:
https://aberdeenshirestorage.blob.core.windows.net/acblobstorage/28948cf5-0078-4603-868a-3cf962ab334e/candidatevotesperstagereport_v0001_ward-3-fraserburgh-and-district_08112024_105251.pdf
Stage 4
Candidate Name Affiliation Votes TransferredVotes Transfer Votes
Sandy LESLIE Liberal Democrats 0.00000 0.00000
Mike MCDONALD SNP 147.00000 1,113.00000
Conrad Strachan RITCHIE Reform UK -864.00000 0.00000
Dawn SMITH Scottish Family Party 0.00000 0.00000
Iain SUTHERLAND Conservative 331.00000 1,556.00
Non-transferable votes 386.00000 481.00000
so of the votes transferred at that stage, nearly one-third went TO THE SNP. And I noted similar for some other by-elections before.
Firstly you mostly can not compare council elections to nationals. Personally I refuse to vote party fir councils and vote for candidates - and I know who does the most for my area. Sod the party.
But this does seem to indicate that the reason many vote Reform UK is not, in Scotland, for far right policies. Perhaps it's more a protest vote, whereas it wasn't, it seems, for the UK as a whole.
The Tory vote in the UK may be bouncing back - perhaps more and more people are getting completely disenchanted with politicians of any hue. But for Scotland it could be the surge for Reform UK can be taken - or taken back - for the SNP. Oh yes it could.
The Broch's full of Poles and Balts doing the fishing and the seafood processing. It's no surprise there is a big anti-immigration vote there.
DeletePresumably from pro-Brexit types.
DeleteThe Tories might be encouraged by this poll but Labour won't be at all concerned. They're 4 months into a possible 5 year term and their unpopularity can be attributed to sorting out the previous government's mess (in their eyes).
ReplyDeleteOf course Labour will be concerned. Deeply concerned, in fact. Slumping to 27% within four months of taking office, with Starmer on dreadful apprival ratings, was not part of the script.
DeleteYou could argue though that they're getting the unpopular stuff out of the way early on and if it pays off in the way they intend their popularity will increase for sorting out the mess the Tories left the country in. Short term pain for long term gain etc.
DeleteIt's a gamble but as they say 'a week is a long time in politics', by that measure 5 years is an entirety.
Does that ever actually happen, though? “Reverse honeymoons”?
DeleteThe only one that comes to mind is Thatcher’s unpopularity in the early eighties, right up until Argentina gifted her effective sainthood by taking a stab at the Malvinas. All was forgiven. England had found her heroine.
Labour have scored some spectacular own goals in the four months since the election and are to a limited extent finding out what it’s like being targeted constantly by BBC and the MSM. And remember they got in because Tory voters deserted in their droves and voted Reform. Now that the tories have an extreme right winger as leader they are getting some of that vote back.
ReplyDeleteAs the UK shifts to the right, in response to the manifest failure of Labour to produce any convincing strategy for broken Britain, for whom do independence supporters advise those who want something more inclusive and humane to vote ?
ReplyDeleteIn the foreseeable future the SNP remains the only plausible answer. Now that the SNP is a firmly devolutionist party any success that it might achieve will be within the limits of that paper thin defence.
The rules will be drawn up and operated by the Brit Nats and changed whenever it suits them. Can we honestly see the Swinney leadership making a strong stand ?
We have to force the issue on where the SNP stands on our constitutional future, via a national convention asap, begin to cast the SNP as Scotland's Parnell party and at least start the task of generating a new independence party.
British Trumpism is not as far away as some like to think.
A new independence party ? New Scotland Party has just started! SNP wait oot ! Lol.
DeleteWith the Holocaust there was no media showing people what was happening until it was too late. There is no excuse for our generation.
ReplyDeleteIncredible what people will accept and turn a blind eye to. Mass murder of people with no means of escape or defence. Even worse the murderer in Chief was given a rousing welcome in the USA congress. Shame on them and shame on all those who supported Sunak and currently support Starmer.
For what it’s worth (very little) the Scottish sub-sample of the More in Common poll is: Con 21%, Lab 30%, LibDem 7%, RefUK 10%, SNP 28%.
ReplyDeleteSo no Greens, ALBA?
ReplyDeleteAgree the ? Green brigade are just ignorant. No doubt some of their family were killed or maimed during the madness of war. WW2 may have been a “just war” but Britain/ England should rethink the massacre of WW1 - Boer War, the americas, India, Ireland, Scotland, China etc. Still Surely all war dead of all nations should be considered.
ReplyDeleteAs an aside maybe the SFA / SL should fight not only against racism but the bitter divisive issue in Scotland of sectarianism but it suits the 🇬🇧🇮🇪 divide and rule. Poor auld Scotia🏴
The fans at Rugby Park spoke for every decent Scot. They are the jewel of Scotland.
DeleteLet Palestine be free.
Anon at 12.27. I agree.
DeleteYes, well said. The most precious of jewels.
DeleteOne day there will be a plaque at Rugby Park to mark the courage of those who stood up to be counted. Heroes, every one of them.
Deletethe empire tries to wash itself clean in the blood of its victims
Deletebut other countries are allowed to remember their own history
the empire was never on the right side of any war, arguably ww2, the "just" war - but here is the thing : Hitler admired the British Empire, he was a fanboy - and half the Anglo elite would have done a deal with him
the nazis were amateurs compared to britain, and their bodycount a mere detail
the anglos are the worst people in existence and responsible for almost all of the evil of the past 1000 years
there is your partners in union, your siamese twin
I stand with the #RugbyParkRighteous
DeleteAs do we all.
DeleteYou know the lions who sent Proud Edward homeward? We've just seen their likes again. At Rugby Park.
DeleteIt seems “U.K.” England polls don’t really consider the difference in Scotland.
ReplyDeleteExcellent post, James, on Gaza. Meanwhile, the US is today saying Israel hasn't breached its law against blocking the flow of aid. As a Scot, I feel ashamed to be (unwillingly) associated with the UK Govt, as it meekly goes along with the US's support of genocide.
ReplyDeleteEngland moves further right. Those who would abolish the Scottish Parliament would leave Scotland at the mercy of the right wing zealots.
ReplyDeleteAnon 11.39 Classic whataboutery.
ReplyDeleteI do not think Badenoch will last 12 months.
ReplyDeleteShe doesn't come across as able to work with others and will say sensational slogans for media coverage. Eventually it will come back to bite.
I see no reason why English tories Will win back those lose to Reofrm when they have a genuine right wing party who speak to the issues they care about. Scottish voters are not immune to worrying about immigration either. I sense reform winning a good few seats. Would like to see the census returns of residents in Glasgow and some parts of Central belt. Feels like it's changed even since covid.
You seem ignorant of the fact that Scotland is crying out for immigration. Or perhaps your racism blinds you to reality. Back to the Daily Mail for you,
Delete.
You are a very annoying poster with your back to the this and that.
DeleteThanks to this thread. I wasn’t aware of events at Rugby Park on Sunday. Having read up on the situation it’s clear to me that this wasn’t knee jerk, gesture politics (which some in the Celtic support can be guilty of). There was a clear, apposite message.
ReplyDelete“From Balfour to Starmer, the crimes of the Empire live on. Britain is committing genocide in Gaza”.
Well, the RAF are flying spy planes out of Akrotiri to assist the terrorist state in “target acquisition” and since we know targets include residential buildings packed with women and children, Britain is indeed committing genocide in Gaza. That’s our tax money contributing towards the murder of innocent civilians. In the circumstances whinging about “disrespect to war dead” is pathetic. Certainly in WWII, our war dead gave their lives to stop exactly just this form of outrage against humanity. In the circumstances, I think they would understand the necessity of action.
Opposing mass slaughter in Gaza and Lebanon is antisemitic ? Aye, right.
ReplyDeleteThousands of civilians killed and you're bothered about a demo at a football match. Tell me are those killed on Bloody Sunday remembered?
ReplyDelete“And you’re bothered about a demo at a football match “
DeleteThe demo was during a minutes silence to honour Britain’s war dead on Remembrance Sunday. Despicable individuals.
Despicable comments on here condoning these cretins, and James Kelly sees fit to leave the disgusting comments up.
This site is sick.
“Britain’s war dead” - you mean the Empire.
DeleteAnon 12:28,
DeleteDosen’t matter.
What these cretins did at Rugby Park on Sunday was absolutely disgraceful, as are the people on here defending them. They have the right to demonstrate of course, but to do it during the minutes silence was deplorable.
Also, James Kelly leaving some of the comments up, while deleting comments condemning the low life’s is also utterly disgraceful.
The UK is sick. A country full of people supporting the daily murder of children. And that makes you a sicko.
DeleteAnon 9:48,
DeleteYou are a sad individual, clearly with little between your ears.
11.00am - I have the values of a normal
Deletedecent human being. You on the other hand have the values of the British Empire which travelled across the globe murdering, raping and enslaving people and stealing their land and resources. Nothing to
celebrate there unless you are a psychopath.
Anon@3:45,
DeleteYou obviously support the imbeciles that ruined the minutes silence at Rugby Park on Remembrance Sunday.
Seek help!
What despicable scenes are you talking about? Targeting and wilfully murdering individual Palestinian children with drones remotely piloted by people? Now that is despicable.
ReplyDeleteSilence from the genocide supporters on the post at 7.44. Why is that?
ReplyDeleteNobody supports genocide? As a matter of observable fact the current government in Westminster support it. The protest was nuanced and appropriate unless of course your level of knowledge and understanding is that of the average daily express reader.
DeleteAnon1:14,
DeleteThe protest didn’t have to be during the minutes silence.
The people who did it are low lifes.
The fact that you support it makes you a pretty sad individual.
Gosh I’m devastated by criticism from a muppet. Educate yourself then come back. In the meantime you keep on supporting the deliberate targeting and murder of Palestinian children. Contemptible.
DeleteLook we know you are a unionist twat. That’s means you support UK govs that help in the murrder each day of Palestinian children. Your values are wrong.
Delete@3:30,
DeleteThe guy disnae support murdering children. The point he’s makin is aboot the silence at the fitba on Sunday being interrupted by Celtic supporters. This should be condemned by everybody, I’ve never been say ashamed, sky having ta apologise it was disgraceful and embarrassing. We’re better than this