* American moral leadership of the 'free world' will at the very least be on pause for the next four years, meaning it will no longer be so easy for European governments to reflexively support whatever nasty stuff the US wants. Think about the repugnant coordinated withdrawal of funds from UNRWA a few months ago to distract from the ICJ's ruling against Israel. If the UK were to participate in a stunt like that again, Starmer would pay a heavy political price for doing Trump's bidding.
* The Democrats are not going to be rewarded for facilitating genocide. OK, there's going to be a pro-genocide president anyway, so in a sense it makes no difference, but there would have been something almost despair-inducing about progressives having been successfully browbeaten into producing an election-winning majority on the basis of "shut up and understand why the mass killing of Palestinians is necessary", as per Bill Clinton's disgraceful speech.
* Although one of my biggest concerns is about the American nuclear arsenal being under the control of an unstable narcissist, there is a counter-argument, which is that Trump's win will probably bring the Ukraine war to an end as a stalemate, and confrontation with Russia will actually become less likely as a result.
* For us non-fans of NATO, it's hard to see how this is anything other than a setback for that alliance. NATO will probably not break up but it could well go into a sort of deep freeze.
* The left in other countries will not be able to use Kamala Harris as a template, which would have been a thoroughly dismal prospect.
* Rory Stewart is the shame of "the Middleland" this morning.
I for one did see this coming, and have said so here several times the last few weeks,
ReplyDeleteBut even I didn't expect him to win the popular vote! Wow!
Good luck to you, America. Something tells me you'll need it.
I think that most of us who are politically aware in Scotland saw it coming from a mile off but were hoping that our perception was wrong. Unfortunately it wasn't. I remember feeling gutted on the morning that Trump defeated Hilary Clinton and wondered how the American voters could go down that route. Since then I have come to accept the fact that although Scots speak the same language as most Americans we do not speak the same 'politics'. Incidentally, after the Brexit referendum I hold the same view about voters in England.
DeleteHas Mexico paid for the wall yet?
DeleteThe same types that voted for poverty under Brexit in England have now voted go make their lives in the trailer park even worse. Enjoy!
DeleteAgreed on the potential upsides you've listed, James. Ending the utterly pointless slaughter of Ukrainian and Russian men over land that's 2 years beyond military dispute is the top of my list. I’m not keen at all on either Putin or Zelensky, but I feel for all the families in both their nations grieving lost sons.
ReplyDeleteThen Putin will move onto other countries. Aye more families will suffer.
DeleteAnd Putin then moves on to invade the rest of Georgia, Moldova via Transnistria and the truly scary prospect of annexation of Estonia Latvia and Lithuania. That's a lit of families to feel for.
Deleteabsolutely, russia really needs more territory
DeleteExactly. Russia has always needed a bulwark between its ethnic Russian heartland and the outside world.
DeleteYou really think Russia excelled itself in Ukraine? Their weapons are shite, their tactics are shite, and they couldn’t even squish Ukraine without a Nato unit in the land.
DeleteIf you guys want to storm in and fight Putin back, by all means sign up for Ukraine. The life expectancy isn’t good, mind.
Surprised at the lack of knowledge regarding Ukraine and Russia with some of the above comments. I would suggest to get the history books out and to understand why we have situation in first place. Also read recent history from 200 -2014. Read signed Minsk Agreement and perhaps look at Eastern geographical ethnicity of people living in Donetsk, Luhansk and other areas within the Eastern Ukraine
Deleteukraine is a made up country that never really existed; lenin thought it was a good idea; maybe the poles and lithuanians can take it back
Delete"You really think Russia excelled itself in Ukraine? Their weapons are shite, their tactics are shite, and they couldn’t even squish Ukraine without a Nato unit in the land."
DeleteWow. You should join the Ukrainian army. You'll be in Moscow by Christmas. Off with ye.
You didn't quite make it to my second sentence. ;-)
DeleteUkraine can sit down with Russia and trade land for peace. Exactly the same thing we all want the Israelis and Palestinians to do, and the only way wars are ever really finished.
Mariupol has a very sizable Greek community.
DeleteAs for the effects on Scotland: was there a bump for independence support in the immediate wake of Trump's first election?
ReplyDelete(I know 2016-2017 was dominated by Brexit, so it may well be impossible to filter out one effect from the other.)
I ask because my gut reaction to Trump back in power is mixed. The ever more dead and buried the Cameron-EU-Obama status quo of 2014 lies in the rear view mirror, the weaker the liberal argument for the union which won them that vote. But with Trump about, there's always the fear of chaos on the rise as well, which can play into the "now is not the time" conservatism of the feart.
In any case, given the total obsession the London media and the whole English political class have with US presidents, we can expect there will be an effect, and it will last.
I think there was a poll saying that only 18% of people here wanted a Trump victory
ReplyDeleteThat means that 82% are gonna be pissed off the next 4 years
And when Trump starts bashing the independence cause some people from that 82% might vote with independence in spite of him
I have to say the USA is a frightening place. The yoo ess Ay arm thumping individuals who believe they own the world ( China may have a different opinion) will wake up from the stupor to find immigration is still the issue, billionaires need more money to give to the poor! Naw they just want more and the anti women anti everything brigade of hate will wonder why it
ReplyDeletehasn’t worked. They will then blame women, gays , black community, immigrants and anyone not like them all over again. Hail to the chief, In God or some version they trust … yoo ess Ay! yoo ess Ay!
I await the ‘rse, licking Labour Party saying what a great day it is.
He likes getting tickled
DeleteClutching at straws in a hurricane here, but imposing tariffs on UK exports to the US would halve our future growth according to this article: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/06/donald-trump-tariffs-would-cut-uk-growth-by-half-and-push-up-inflation-thinktank-warns
ReplyDeleteGuess whose plan for government is heavily relying on future growth? That’s right, Labour. So maybe a few years down the line we’ll be seeing a choice between a failed Labour government, the Kemi/Nigel far right alternative or an independent Scotland. Being very optimistic it might just be chilling enough to get the extra numbers we need.
I can imagine it.
DeleteBut what it won’t get us the event. How do we achieve independence? It’s not coming to us served hot on a silver plate just because Yes dominates in the opinion polls. It must be forced.
Swinney that man of daring action must… shift over.
Indeed, but it will be much easier to force the issue with a healthy majority behind it. Bear in mind that the only arguments so far against another referendum have been “once in a generation” and “now is not the time”. They are both already showing their age and can’t be wheeled out indefinitely.
DeleteIt’s a massive if, but if we could reliably have 55-60%+ then the political pressure becomes huge. That’s when the “how” becomes an urgent matter to be negotiated. While we are stuck on 45-50% there is no pressure at all on the UK government.
" if we could reliably have 55-60%+ then the political pressure becomes huge." delusional stuff ignoring the reality of the true colonial relationship between Westminster and Scotland.
Delete@3:05pm,
DeleteYou are correct. Of course there’d be huge pressure on the UK government if Indy support was consistently at 55% or above.
We have to get there though.
So it's the same old crap that Sturgeon and Blackford used to punt. Westminster will give in the democratic pressure of - wait a min it is different - it's not election results now it's just polls. Polls will get Westminster to give up Scotland. Laughable nonsense.
DeleteBruce forced England to give up Scotland with the sword and an army but these posters think Westminster will fold because of some polls.
IFS, well that’s your opinion, which you are of course entitled to.
DeleteHonestly, I think you're both right. Anon is correct that the current evidence is that there is no angry majority seeking independence… yet. That's very easy indeed for London to ignore.
DeleteIfS is right that such a majority alone won't be our automatic doorway opening up to let us out of the union. That exit must be forced.
When there was a whole string of polls one after the other showing a clear majority for yes and some up to 58% I don't remember seeing Sturgeon rushing down to London to join Blowhard Blackford to demand Indyref2 never mind independence.
DeletePolls will set us free. Mm not sure about that slogan.
Quite right.
DeleteWhat some people, like the above anon, are looking for is a real change in urgency from the Scottish public's desire for independence. The political reality would change, here in Scotland at least, if enough people were angry and demanding independence, not as a future aspiration but an immediate insistence. Something more like the reaction to the Poll Tax and the Iraq war, for example. Street protests, yes, but also real fire in the bellies of a substantial majority of the population. The kind of social movement that demands to have its way, and won't settle for anything less. The kind that throws political parties of its way.
Can London still ignore that? Yes! They can try to ignore anything. But where there is a true public will, there is a way.
Even Swinney and company couldn't block it, if enough of us were angry.
Apparently I just argued myself around to this point of view!
DeleteAnyway, my point is: as long as enough of us are passive, dutifully telling pollsters "Yes", voting SNP, and merely waiting for progress before we drop off the face of the earth, Scotland can be kept exactly where it is. Sitting on our arses won't win us independence. Only cosy salaries for our two-faced representatives.
What does it matter what the period was. It happened and the SNP did nothing. It was at 58%.
DeleteKC disnae like to think of yes being above 50% - his poor head explodes.
It's like a version of whackamole. Up pops KC and James deletes his post and KC pops up again..
Delete“It was at 58%”
DeleteDear oh dear! Embarrassing.
I didn't want to say it before but Harris had no chance. She's a woman and was the VP of a senile old man. What could possibly go wrong?
ReplyDeleteVery poor choice of candidate.
Have to agree. One of Biden’s greatest failures has been the lack of succession planning, which, given his age, is unforgivable. After all, he could have died at any point in the last few years. On Day 1 after he defeated Trump he and the Democrats should have been asking: “Who’s next?” Then they could have spent 4 years building up that person’s profile.
DeleteThere are some talented people in the Democrats, the likes of Buttigieg, Shapiro, Pritzker, Whitmer and Newsome, but none have quite developed a national profile and none were set and ready to go when Biden was finally eased aside.
By that very late stage Harris was the only quick choice. Maybe with more time she would have managed it, although it seems like she quickly hit her ceiling and has been consistently losing votes in the polls over recent weeks. In the end she was too closely tied to Biden.
That was me by the way about Harris and Biden. A headline fro the National:
Delete"'Read the room': Scots criticise John Swinney for congratulating Donald Trump"
Wrong way around - he is the First Minister of Scotland, a wannabee FM of Independent Scotland, and it's quite right he congratulates the new President of the USA. What WAS wrong was his stupid endorsement of Harris.
When will these stupid moronic FMs ever learn even basic 101 International Relations?
You wouldn’t congratulate Starmer for rimming Donald like a pro, though, would you? It just comes naturally to the Brits. We needn’t follow them when they’re not our needy masters.
DeleteAs a person Swinney is fully entitled to his opinion, but as First Minister he is supposed to represent 5.5 million in Scotland, including businesses that trade with the USA.
DeleteCrawler
Delete"Crawler"
DeleteAre you, Fido? Doesn't make you a bad dog.
Isnt it frightening how the media can control our thoughts, and how well we all react to their dog whistle politics, at least the American people have proved to be more savvy than we.
ReplyDeleteOK Elon
DeleteAnon at 12.55. Priceless . Who ties yours shoelaces for you.
ReplyDeleteHe's right though. The Yanks totally ignored the media.
DeleteHe is completely wrong, but never mind. WTAF?
DeleteAnon @ 4:18
DeleteSour grapes from you, but never mind. DARVO
WKWWTWB
DeleteAmerican moral leadership of the 'free world' will at the very least be on pause for the next four years, meaning it will no longer be so easy for European governments to reflexively support whatever nasty stuff the US wants.
ReplyDeleteI expected a decline in the US's soft power during Trump Part 1, but it didn't really materialise. Instead European governments (and to a large extent the people) just moved right
Oh, I think there was undoubtedly some decline in American soft power during that period (as there was during the George W Bush period too).
DeleteMuch more so under Trump than under W. What surprised me, though, was the cringing diminishment of the whole “West” around them. Macron talked the talk but everyone fell in line.
DeleteNotably, Macron was congratulating Trump before he even declared his own victory. You slimy troll, Emmanuel!
Enjoying the Wings discourse that it was the trans cult wot won it.
ReplyDeleteHmm!
He really is completely bonkers.
DeleteIs that what he's saying though? I thought he was saying that the democrats campaign didn't propose anything people wanted (apparently the economy) and lots that people opposed (support for Israel, and identity politics). Seems like a plausible hypothesis? Why do you think Trump won?
DeleteToo many daft Yanks, that's why.
Deletewhy did trump win ... ?
ReplyDelete- "the other guy" was EVEN WORSE
its lesser-evilism, all the way down
People are hurting and they pulled the lever marked CHANGE instead. Sure, it was for the angry white man who had led them into many of their problems but never underestimate people’s need to be heard.
DeleteNever underestimate people's gullibility, such as the Red Wall mugs and Brexit.
Deleteswinney needs to stand up to this fascism - impose new land and property taxes and planning laws for golf courses, and a wealth windfall tax - to sort this guy out.
ReplyDeletewe should also jack up the police scotland /scotsquad investigation into CIA torture flights from prestwick; get a warrant and let the polis steam intae that langley
A sort of pie whenever Gary do yhe
Deletemaybe what america needs is stringent voter registration conditions - everyone must sign up to a code of conduct which includes anti racism, diversity, antisemitism, zero tolerance for transphobia; once people are checked for correct values they can be given a license to vote
ReplyDeleteThey have a hard enough time keeping assault rifles out of the hands of murder-suicidal teenagers…
DeleteApparently Switzerland has one of the most heavily armed publics in the world, they have about the laxest firearms rules in the world, and owning a fully automatic assault rifle is normal. However, they have shooting ranges like we have football pitches and are a fun day out for the whole family (more so than fitba).
DeletePopulist English nationalism of the sort you support?
ReplyDeleteAnon 7.47 Don't be daft
ReplyDeleteWe vote 62% to stay in the eu and was ignored. Northern Ireland benefits from the. eu to our detriment. With the ROi population it is now over 7 million plus the eu population
ReplyDelete3+6=21
DeleteAs some above have suggested, Harris would have been a more plausible opponent of Independence via the comfy false liberal argument playbook.
ReplyDeleteNot so much lack of awareness on your part, just plain stupidity coupled with ignorance. A toxic mix. Go back to the Mail and give us all peace you cretin.
ReplyDeleteGolf courses everywhere, cat safety patrols, and the Capitol occupied by someone dressed-up as Sitting Bull. A lot more fun than No-Comment Harris.
ReplyDeleteThis place, Gaza, you know, it could be the Florida of the east. Bibi, baby, we need to talk!
DeleteIt could be a golf course with lots of bunkers.
Deletetrumps got 2 months to think about revenge 😀🙈
ReplyDeletePolls don't involve the average person and are the playthings of the urban elite, mostly the urban elite involved in shaping things like toothpaste advertisements on TikTok.
ReplyDelete