What I'm about to say will to some extent contradict my previous post, because looking at the latest Tory members' poll from ConHome, I really do struggle to see why Robert Jenrick is still favourite to win the leadership contest. (And as of this moment he is still favourite - I've just checked.)
There's going to be a head-to-head members' ballot between just two candidates, and regardless of whether he is up against Kemi Badenoch or James Cleverly, the poll shows Jenrick losing by a wide margin.
Jenrick v Badenoch
Kemi Badenoch 53%
Robert Jenrick 33%
Jenrick v Cleverly
James Cleverly 54%
Robert Jenrick 36%
The only candidate Jenrick would beat in a head-to-head is Tom Tugendhat, which is no use to him because Tugendhat is plainly not going to be his opponent. So precisely how is Jenrick supposed to emerge from this process as leader? In spite of what the betting odds say, I don't think he can, unless the poll is completely wrong.
The poll does keep alive the possibility of James Cleverly being stopped, though, because Badenoch would narrowly beat him in a head-to-head -
Badenoch v Cleverly:
Kemi Badenoch 48%
James Cleverly 42%
So logically what may now happen is that hard-right MPs might ditch Jenrick in favour of Badenoch in the remaining ballots to engineer a Badenoch v Cleverly run-off, which appears to be the only way Cleverly might yet lose.
Arguably Cleverly should currently be listed as favourite, with Badenoch as second favourite and Jenrick a distant third.
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Who cares?
ReplyDeleteAs James said in the last post: this may well be picking the next British prime minister. Starmer's doing miserably.
DeleteNo relevance to Scotland
ReplyDeleteOnce we're independent, maybe. But we're not. The Tories will be governing us with the heel of their shoes again soon enough. England's will.
DeleteAs for James's actual point, I just asked AI…
ReplyDeleteBased on the search results provided, there appears to be a discrepancy between Robert Jenrick's position as the betting favorite and his performance in recent polls of Conservative Party members.
…
Conclusion
The discrepancy between betting odds and member polls highlights the complexity of the leadership race. Betting markets may be placing more weight on Jenrick's performance among MPs, while recent polls suggest that party members currently prefer other candidates. As the contest progresses and the field narrows, it's possible that betting odds will adjust to reflect changing member preferences more closely.
Essentially, the betting is being daft and the smart money's against Jenrick? Seems odd. We're always told that gamblers are better at this stuff than pollsters, but my money's certainly not on that!
Maybe punters don't believe the poll. We're always told that Tory members are extremely xenophobic centenarians so I don't understand why they'd reject the child-immigrant-torturing Jenrick in favour of the relatively moderate Cleverly, even if the latter does enjoy joking about sexually assaulting his wife
ReplyDeleteAh yes of course, the racial aspect of the race. That could explain such a massive discrepancy: punters expect the Bradley effect.
DeleteThere was a LOT of talk about that regards Obama in 2008. Yet he did just as strongly as he polled. I think only West Virginia swung against him.
But you’re right: these are Tory party members. They’re old and they’re proudly regressive. But are telling pollsters bare faced lies? Why would they be shy of their skin tone based assessment of “character”?
Cleverly is now the favourite on betting exchanges BTW
ReplyDeleteI checked the Betfair exchange when writing this post and Jenrick was favourite at about 2.2 and Cleverly was about 2.7. That's now flipped round and Cleverly is the very slight favourite, but the odds on Jenrick still look wildly unrealistic.
DeleteIndeed. You are correct on the points of fact (betting odds change) and FWIW you look correct to me in your subjective opinion too: Jenrick looks wildly unrealistic.
DeleteI wouldn’t rule out Kemi (neither do you in your original post), who is still lapping up positive Tory press coverage.
Hustings tomorrow (8th) then it’s narrowed down to 2 over two rounds of their MPs’ voting.
Finally, I wonder how many Farage-minded members have left the party, perhaps tilting things in Cleverly’s direction, assuming he’s in the final two?