It's a statement of the obvious that the voting system magnifies any swing and produces extreme variations in seat returns within quite a narrow band of results. If you actually look at the Survation MRP data tables, they show the lower band of SNP support at close to 1% (a GB-wide percentage) and the upper band at 4%. In other words, a near-wipeout is within the poll's margin of error, but so is an outright majority. When seat numbers are so sensitive to much, much tinier variations than that, I'm beginning to wonder if we should just regard the seats projections as essentially meaningless (they're all over the shop anyway) and concentrate on the popular vote instead. And that, actually, seems to be a picture of relative stability. Survation are outliers, so far at least, in suggesting a major change over the course of the campagn.
That said, we do need to have at least one eye on what happens if these poorer projections prove to be accurate next Thursday. The media will try to proclaim that independence is dead and that we are moving into a post-indepedence era of Scottish politics. Much will depend on whether the SNP can be persuaded to resist that narrative, or whether they will cave into it as they did in June 2017 (even though, ironically, they had just won a landslide majority!).
For what it's worth, some of the individual seats projections from Survation do not remotely tally up with gossip I've heard from the ground, so hopefully Labour are being overestimated and the WeThink and Find Out Now MRPs are closer to the truth.
* * *
If anyone has any thoughts about how to deal with the increasingly extreme levels of concern trolling in the comments section of this blog, please let me know. I think it's reaching the point where it can't just be regarded as a silly game anymore, because unusually high numbers of people are coming here in the run-up to the election to find out polling information, and they shouldn't be deceived by a Tory nutter posing as a "concerned independence supporter" and having elaborate pretend conversations with himself in an attempt to sap morale and spread misinformation. Switching on pre-moderation just before an election wouldn't be great either, but I may have to decide which is the lesser of the two evils.
I know this will likely get deleted, but there has to - surely - something to gain for independence supporters if the current SNP suffer a defeat in this election? They aren't going to change their approach towards achieving independence if they never suffer electoral set backs.
ReplyDeleteNo, FitzyFan, there is nothing to be gained - nothing whatsoever - from suffering a landslide defeat to the forces of unionism. Stop listening to the brainwashing from Campbell before it's too late (and that means within the next six days).
DeleteWhat is there to be gained, however, from the same cast of do-nothings we have in WM now? We all know they’ll tuck independence away again the moment they’ve secured another term at their trough.
DeleteWhat is to be gained by replacing those pro-independence MPs with anti-independence MPs? That is a question I have yet to hear a credible answer to, for the very good reason that no credible answer exists.
DeleteNow, enough. Scot Goes Pop is a pro-independence blog, and if you want to have a stimulating discussion about how to make unionist election victories happen, I suggest you try the Spectator, the Daily Express or Wings Over Scotland.
Let's assume there is a change of leadership to someone who takes the Wings/Alba/Salvo(?)/SGP position.
DeleteIt can only be put in place from a portion of at least some strength. It can't be taken seriously with next to zero Scottish nationalist MPs
It’s my opinion that all serious independence supporters should vote Alba in the 19 seats they’re contesting.
DeleteThe big dilemma of course is for voters in the other constituencies. I certainly wouldn’t blame anybody for abstaining, but each individual will have their own thoughts.
In my opinion Alba should have made a clear recommendation to vote SNP in the other seats (apart from the Western Isles). Abstention would be totally irresponsible.
DeleteSorry. ALBA does not recommend other parties.
DeleteNor does the SNP. Parties are machines for maximising their own self interest. Dissent is unwelcome and tolerated only briefly.
Delete"Sorry. ALBA does not recommend other parties."
DeleteWhat the hell is that supposed to mean? Firstly, it's flatly untrue - Alba explicitly recommended a constituency vote for the SNP in 2021 and should self-evidently be doing so again. And secondly, if you're presenting yourself as some sort of Alba spokesperson, you'd damn well better identify yourself. Who are you and what position do you hold?
Obviously, pre moderation, when you're being shotgunned by hunners and hunners of new commenters is just going to be impractical for a one man band. Perhaps including a glossary of key terms used by trolls with every post you make might make legitimate readers more aware of what to look out for from the troglodytes? The danger then is, they change their key words. Nonetheless, it's more efficient than moderating every comment you get.
ReplyDeleteOn the trolls can't you just go back to the situation where you can't post Anonymously?
ReplyDeleteOn the polling, I've completed my postal vote and it's for the SNP. My nose was held but On the basis of everything I've seen in the last few weeks it was the only sensible option.
What's surprising is that I've seen no canvassers, and only one Labour stand. No one from any other party. I did see my old MP (our ward has shifted constituency) and he looked utterly forlorn. No one came near him and he was stood in a crowd as though there were an invisible bubble around him. He's a nice guy, has sound views and he's not failed or disappointed in any way. But the SNP leadership have let him down badly these last 2-3y. Perhaps he could've spoken up more about that.
There isn't an option simply to stop Anonoymous commenting. The only middle option is to require people to sign in to a Google account before posting, and that would probably lead to an even bigger drop in the posting rate than pre-moderation.
DeleteMost of the anonymous posters make good points.
DeleteI've seen no canvaseers; in fact, I don't believe I've ever seen a canvaseer in years (since long before the first indyref), but I've seen plenty of billboards, internet ads, placards, and pamphlets all for the SNP.
DeleteWe’re a varied lot.
Delete@9:36. The SNP doesn’t have the committed activists that it did before the Alba split. And who can’t forgive the hold-overs for feeling underwhelmed this time? They know Indy’s off the table just as well as we do, and the punters too.
DeleteWhen the history of this election in Scotland is written - not exactly an exciting read no doubt - the main question will be why the SNP leadership refused to tap into a consistent 50% support for independence. With England in a political mess, Sunak and Starmer exposed as charlatans and the rise of the disgusting Farage Scotland was ripe for radical action by pro independence parties. The adoption of abstentionism by at least one pro independence party would have boosted morale in the whole pro independence movement.
ReplyDeleteInstead we have the sickening prospect of the SNP leadership - for want of a better term - once again caving in to the unionist establishment.
Anon at 8.53pm - ISP has a policy of abstentionism at Westminster and supports Scottish independence.
DeleteAnd eternal credit to them but they have next to no media recognition. If there was an ISP candidate in my constituency I'd vote for them but there's not. I'm abstaining [not because of WoS] because I refuse to take part in, and thus lend my tiny bit of credence to, the whole anti-Scottish process that is Westminster elections. Pro independence Scots should boycott the British nationalist pantomime.
DeleteISP to most people means something else.
DeleteWhat does ISP stand for anyway?
DeleteIndependence for Scotland Party.
DeleteIndependence Service Provider. 😉
DeleteWe ask no less from our independence striving representatives.
IFS: what is ISP's USP?
DeleteThey’re not in London to settle in, they’re in London to settle up.
DeleteI think a certain hero of independence would quite agree if she were still with us!
For what it's worth, I've never heard of MRP until fairly recently and still don't understand it's value.
ReplyDeleteTo me popular vote makes the most sense and then you can make a judgement on local issues from there.
I would think SNP 5 behind ish probably means low teens or circa 20. Labour will win most central belt seats on those numbers.
Tory heartlands may return SNP but unsure.
Abhainn
The seat count is of course important and 30-40 seats looks way better than 10-20 seats but I agree that the popular vote should be seen to be just as important in terms of pure levels of support nowadays.
ReplyDeleteThat's not really what I mean, though. What I'm getting at is that if the seats projections are bouncing all over the place, they're not really a useful way of keeping track of the trend or the true state of play.
DeleteEssentially the margin of error is very wide. The 95% confidence intervals would be more useful.
DeleteAh I see what you mean. Yes the seats are so volatile they’re not useful. Agreed.
DeleteYes, that's it.
DeleteI agree with you James. The polling results are valid but the seat projections are nonsense because the models haven't been written and validated against this set of circumstances.
DeleteThe models may not even factor the central question of Scottish politics: Yes or No to independence.
DeleteHigh earning, middle classed women with children in private fee paying education aren’t voting for Ian Murray for the same reasons as anyone in England votes for Labour. It’s the constitution, stupid.
A 7 point SNP lead in the last Survation MRP switched to a 10 point Labour lead in this one. Neither of which was in line with polling.
ReplyDeleteWell, it's a form of polling in itself, so we'll have to see if there's been a big late swing to Labour, but as things stand it looks like an outlier.
DeleteTo a point yes. MRPs rely on census data which isn't available for Scotland for 2022 to make it workable. It also projects assumptions about the rUK electorate and swings, onto Scotland. Labour's core vote in rUK was younger in 2019 than in Scotland etc.
DeleteWhat some of the the models might. Might..be doing is modelling the vote for the rUK parties across rUK demographics in Scotland. Then giving the SNP what's left. Unless they specifically state they model Scotland and it's demographics separately.
Good point 9:52
DeleteThe MRP folks are aware of the problems posed by our increasingly different political culture in Scotland. Matt Singh wrote this about it today:
“The MRPers generally concur that Labour's Scottish vote is more efficient than the SNP's at these sorts of levels of support, but disagree on how exactly the 57 seats will shake out.
This is not surprising, because getting Scotland right is hard. As well as the complexity and the number of marginal seats, MRP has to use limited data (a 20k sample will have about 1700 Scots) from which to model a fairly distinct set of dynamics. (Wales is usually less of a problem in this regard because the Plaid vote is lower, more stable, and more concentrated than the SNP's in Scotland).”
I think you’re spot on about the deep distortion they could wind up in by assuming Labour voters are similar in England and Scotland. Labour is a largely tactical vote here. Look at Red Tory Morningside! In England, it’s hardly ever the case that Tory voters are forced to choose between two other parties, as their own is almost always in contention. Get Labour wrong and you’re going to fail spectacularly in your forecast for this election.
Yes. You can't even use a standard Scottish poll to run an MRP from because 1000 or so responses isn't enough. You'd need to poll (and pay) for a larger sample.
DeleteEven the Green shares in Scotland with Survation don't line up with what we know from actual historic Green results; being at over 10% in Glasgow East but less than half that in Glasgow West for example.
I think the idea that Scotland is a colony and denied self-determination by the UK Government is gaining traction. Scotland being a colony would mean that the governing or potentially governing parties of the UK and those who deny the right to self-determination are - colonialists, who wish to continue the practice of colonialism over Scotland.
ReplyDeleteThat means that the Conservatives, Labour, LibDems and Reform UK are all colonialist parties. A vote for then is a vote to support the continuation of Scotland as a Colony of the UK.
The thing is that NOT voting for a non-colonialist party such as the SNP, Greens, Alba, ISP or Independents4Independence, aids and abets the colonialist parties by not countering any vote for them with an opposing vote for a non-colonialist party.
Anyone who votes for a colonialist party supports Scotland being a colony, but anyone abstaining or spoiling their ballot, or "repurposing their vote" with a spoilt ballot, is also supporting a colonialist party by their actions.
This makes them a colonist. Delighted with Scotland being a colony of the UK, and doing their little bit with their one vote - which they could use to oppose colonialism.
Think carefully how you use your vote.
Modifying your message, eh?
DeleteThe ballot in my seat has no abstentionist candidate, otherwise I’d vote for them. If I was Irish I’d similarly vote Sinn Fèin in Ulster.
As it is, my only “choice” is between a young Alyn Smith wannabe for the SNP and his woke Green equivalent. Talk about the boak!
I abstain. To hell with the coloniser and his parly. Scots have no more place there than every other former colony of the empire.
SF has fallen from 26% to 24% to 23% in the three successive Lucid talk polls of the election campaign.
DeleteWhich is perfectly consistent with margin of error noise.
Delete"I abstain."
DeleteThen you are a colonialist sympathiser
"To hell with the coloniser and his parly."
You would need to vote AGAINST the coloniser to achieve that. The only way to do that is to vote for a non-colonial party.
"Modifying your message, eh?"
DeleteThere were roughly 10,000 spoilt ballots in Scotland in 2019. To succeed, a campaign of spoil your ballot to send the SNP a clear message "Get back to Independence", would have to achieve doubling that figure. So 10,000 more people would have to spoil their ballots with "INDEPENDENCE", "'EndTheUnion" or "NotMyParliament".
I'd say no more than 400 would do that, so the campaign is a (near) total abject failure. And I say that as a former proponent.
Any vote that is not SNP increases the chance of a unionist winning. It really is that simple. Alba are winning nothing. If setting Indy back for decades is a price worth paying for giving SNP a bloody nose now, instead of using a list vote for a credible list vote party in 2026 to gain actual leverage over SNP, then there will be dire consequences for Indy. That’s the reality. Unpopular message warning. Accept personal responsibility for your actions.
Delete@Yesindyref2
DeleteI abstain because the SNP are self-interested grifters who have sat on independence, doing bugger all for our cause, for ten years now.
Even your handle is a hint at how they’ve squandered us: Where is Indyref2? Did we sleep and miss it?
Their absence from the coloniser’s house of horrors makes no difference for Scots desire for independence. What it does achieve is a shake up in the party.
For goodness sake, the SNP’s primary source of income is Short Money paid by the UK state. Look at how that has distorted them!
They should be our party—Yes supporters in Scotland—not Westminster’s saltire-wrapped little helpers.
Anon at 6.05am - did the SNP and those who followed the BOTH VOTES SNP policy accept responsibility for all those Unionist MSPs? No they did not they would rather have Tory, Labour LibDem MSPs than Alba or other independence supporting MSPs.
DeleteUnpopular message - it's the truth.
Different type of election, silly billy. Take another vacation.
DeleteAbstaining or spoiling a ballot paper both help preserve the union. Well done. Proud of you lot. Doff your caps to your monarch.
DeleteAnon at 9.45am - I know that it is a different election - but they are still unionists. So my point is valid. Give a rest with the silly billy it makes you seem like an idiot. Your comment is just trolling - proud of it are you?
DeleteIf independence was on the ballot, believe me I’d vote for it with the same passion I did in 2014.
DeleteBut that was the last time the UK or the SNP allowed us Scots anywhere near it!
alf baird has done the colonoscopy and it's right enough
ReplyDeleteIs he alright? When can we send him chocolates?
DeleteActually it was the UKSC with their judgement on the LA reference case, where they effectively denied that Scotland had any right to self-determination - the inviolable right to self-determination being the main argument of the SNP Intervention, which the UKSC effectively laughed at, sneered at, and then ignored.
DeleteKnow your place, Scotland, you are there to be exploited. On your knees.
we shall have our independence, one day - when the uk has pumped the oil fields dry, the current ones, and all the new ones west of Shetland. And scraped the sea bed for rare earth metals, built the long term deep nuke waste facility in the midst of us and still failed to cleanup the mess at dounreay or faslane.
DeleteYesindyref 2. You do not really understand the point of and strategy behind the S C application, do you? And no, I’m not explaining it yet again. Go away and find out for yourself.
DeleteAnon at 6.09am - I'll explain it for you. It was to try and prevent independence and to give Sturgeon a pathetic excuse for not delivering a referendum. There you go - it took seconds.
DeleteIFS, concise and to the point as ever👍
DeleteI F S. Concise? If only. But as so often, completely wrong and a bit unhinged.
DeleteAnonymous troll alert at 9.43am.
DeleteThere’s no explaining to a troll.
DeleteUK “supreme” court says there will never be another indyref. Nicola’s job was done!
9:43 The troll's standard reply to IFS - insult him but refuse to explain what you think he got wrong. Pathetic.
DeleteGood evening, KC. I have now deleted the same cretinous remark from you twice, but I will respond to it anyway because it's a classic of its kind. Yes, MRP polls are a form of polling. That is not "the position of this blog", it is a statement of irrefutable and blindingly obvious truth. The Survation MRP projection referred to in this blogpost, for example, is based on interviews by both phone and online with over 23,000 respondents. If you want to make a complete blithering idiot of yourself by explaining how that is "not a form of polling", by all means don't let me stop you.
ReplyDelete**Sighs**.
DeleteMRP stands for Multilevel Regression and Poststratification. It is not a form of polling itself like this blog contends but rather a statistical technique used to analyze polling data.
It combines survey data with demographic information to make more accurate predictions about public opinion across different geographic and demographic groups.
The first stage, multilevel regression, involves building a statistical model that accounts for demographic characteristics (e.g., age, income, region).
The
second stage, poststratification, uses the model and known population characteristics to ensure the estimates are representative of the entire population.
MRP therefore is not a form of polling like this blog contends but instead is a method used to enhance the analysis of polling data, providing more detailed and reliable estimates of public opinion, especially in small geographic areas or among specific demographic groups.
Nowhere in that long pompous waffle can I detect any explanation of how an MRP polling exercise consisting of interviews by both phone and online with over 23,000 respondents is "not a form of polling". You've had your attempt at a distraction waffle, now address the substance. Good luck, because by God you're going to need it.
DeleteTo be super concise, MRP is *not* polling but is a *post-polling* statistical technique. Polling is a method of getting survey data, whereas MRP a *technique* that uses the data as an input.
DeleteBeing concise is of no help whatsoever if you continue to answer the question you wish I'd asked, rather than the question I did ask. Your initial claim last night in the two comments I deleted was that a Survation MRP polling exercise involving 23,000 respondents is "not a form of polling", and you sneered at me for pointing out the obvious fact that it was.
DeletePlease now dispense with the drivel and explain how a poll of 23,000 people is not in fact a poll - which you apparently expect us to accept as your honestly-held belief.
James first time comment. I have read your blog for years as firstly supporting independence and as a former SNP memember. Now all can say the Scottish electrorate are utter idiots for thinking Sir is the messiah bringing fortune to cure the mess that is the UK. Mark my words idiots, nothing will change except a 5 year filler that will allow Reform to be stronger to succed Labour in 2029.
ReplyDeleteIdiots indeed!!
Welcome to SGP!
DeleteDon't understand, what have Greens to do with idiots of Scotland voting Labour?
DeleteIt's the name of this blog: Scot Goes Pop.
DeleteI did not think of that, thanks for pointing that out
DeleteApart from Sir Anas Sarwar and Dame Jackie Baillie (all Labour politicians have to have a title these days, don't they?), can anybody name any other Labour MSP or MP?
DeleteI take a passing interest in politics and I can't.
No worries. WGD would be Wee Ginger Dug. Same for others I guess.
DeleteI have seen it quoted in the comments section that if only the SNP (or Alba) tapped into the 50% YES vote they'd win.
ReplyDeleteDo people not realise that 50% may back independence but it's not their main driver? My partner, older brother and several friends all support independence but have other motivations too.
I'd say younger work colleagues are in the sell me independence mode (Greens are good at this)
Just saying we want independence because..... just won't cut it. It's the 1990s early 2000s SNP. So much work has gone in to making independence the normal (this blog playing a part). Let's not blow it by having hissy fits because we haven't achieved independence yesterday.
VOTE SNP
You think the SNP’s been doing a good job to promote the vision of what independence looks like for Scotland? They certainly don’t strike me as especially into it. Their comfort zone is talking about what they’ll do when re-elected *within the union* not the transformation we can achieve with Indy.
Deletewho is this KC and where is the sunshine band?
ReplyDeleteThey were quite big in the seventies and early eighties.
DeleteShee eee ees the queen of clubs
DeleteIt took long enough for Nicola Sturgeon's UKSC strategy to work, good to see it's eventually taking hold and waking Scotland up to what she showed up
ReplyDeleteDr Jim at 12.02am - you are posting on SGP almost as often as you post on WGD. Problem is it is the same shit. Anyone who is not a nicophant like Dr Jim can see that Sturgeon went to the London court to get them to make it illegal in the UK to hold a referendum without the coloniser's permission. This nonsense of it being some sort of positive strategy for independence could only come from the minds of nicophants who will spin anything to make Sturgeon seem great. She ain't she is a charlatan. She is as much a Betrayer of Scotland as those parliamentarians who sold out Scotland in 1707.
DeleteJust ask yourself if it was such a great strategy ( oh no it's the WGD numpty Nicola has a secret plan again ) why did she not go to the UK Court back in 2017.
Anon 8:22,Sturgeon had no option other that to fo to the Supreme Court.The idea that she went there to make independence illegal is ridiculous.I share your disapointment,but we do need to be realistic about the challenges to independence.Unexamined rhetoric does not help us to move forward,Instad we need to put our heads together and find solutions.
DeleteAnon at 8.37am - I posted as Independence for Scotland not anon. The fact that you cannae answer why Sturgeon didnae go to the UK Court back in 2017 if it was a good idea and she had no option tells its own story. Unexamined rhetoric is your post - so I am examining it.
DeleteDid Sturgeon say at the 2019 election she was going to the UK court - no - she said she was having Indyref2.
Did Sturgeon say at the 2021 election she was going to the court - no - she said she was having Indyref2.
She went to the court knowing fine well a UK COURT would never find against its own existence. She didn't go to the court in 2017 because she knew she wouldn't be able peddle her lies of having Indyref2 at the 2019 and 2021 elections.
Anon at 8.37am - and, of course, if she went to the court in 2017 she wouldnae be able to raise the >£600k on the back of promises to hold Indyref2. Just where is this money now?
DeleteIf people continue to abuse the lack of pre-moderation in the way they have done over the last few hours, you'll be leaving me with no option. Apart from anything else, the sheer amount of my time that is wasted having to constantly monitor the situation in case more trolling or abuse appears is beyond belief. It seems people can't even control themselves at 3am.
ReplyDeleteWell, I could never have predicted this. I go away for a few hours, and come back to find that instead of simply accepting my polite request to stop wasting my time, there are two responses, one of which demands the right to continue with the offending posts because apparently without them this blog will turn into WGD, and the other demanding that I provide EVIDENCE of GENUINE trolling and abuse because HE doesn't think there IS any.
DeleteDo you want to go away and have a think about what time-wasting and trolling looks like? For the love of God, just stop this now. At the risk of sounding like a schoolteacher, you are on the brink of spoiling this for everyone because I just do not have the time to drop everything for forty minutes every time you decide to throw your weight around.
It's really simple. I have a moderation policy, it has been clearly set out, and I am enforcing it. Don't challenge it, don't try to mount a revolution against it, just respect it (or at least accept it), or go elsewhere.
Jesus, are you two for real? The message was "please stop" not "please continue at ever greater length for the rest of the afternoon".
DeleteLet me make this even simpler for you: YOU ARE NOT WELCOME TO POST HERE. DESIST. GO AWAY.
If on the 4th July the SNP folds as a political party there is only three people to blame the Nicola, Peter Murrell and John Swinney.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP became a party not for Independence but against it, Sturgeon wanted to make Westminster work for Scotland, it showed you just how little political skills she had when Westminster was never going to work for Scotland how could it if we had only 59 MPs. The SNP went from failure to failure and then made Foote CEO here was another bad move. It doesn't take a genuine to realize that SNP after the 04.05.24 will be finished as a political party and it isn't the END to Independence. Remember its the people like me and you who wake Independence possible the SNP was only a means to take us there which the party was never ever going to do and each leader made that clear. The SNP collapsing as a party is good news it means a fresh start and a new direction we just need a new party to lead and we already have 50% wanting Independence and we should all look forward to Holyrood in 2026.
Total nonsense. If the SNP do badly and Independence is off the table people who abstained etc. Will have killed the dream. Many will not forgive that mistake.
DeleteYou won't forgive them? What are you planning - a round of public hangings?🤣🤣🤣
DeleteAnon at 8.05am - I am confident that the SNP will not finish on the 4/5/24 as you speculate.
DeleteAgree with IfS. The SNP is the vehicle, it just needs a major overhaul and a much better driver.
DeleteWe’ve already seen how few Scots care to vote for “alternative independence parties”. I don’t expect any of them to do much better next week. The SNP *is* independence to almost everyone. The task then is to use it.
Anon at 10.55. You are wasting your time on IFS and his little band of followers. They exist in this bubble and no one outside it listens. They are not really supporters of Indy, just grievance saddos.
Delete12.49
DeleteNot sure that's helpful.
Anon troll alert at 12.49pm.
DeleteI also look forward to independence, Anon 8:05,but I dont think that your prediction of the future will speed up that process.It would delay independence.In any case,I think that while the SNP will lose seats during the coming election,it will not be as damaging as you predict,and the party will start to recover,once voters have had the opportunity to experience the damaging effects of a right wing labour government.Of course Westminster does not work for Scotland,bit SNP MPs do stand up for our interests,which Scottish labour MPs certainly will not be allowed to do.In your critique you also ignored the many achievements of the SNP government,which has improved the quality of life for many citizens.Political success is a constantly changing situation,and it is very foolish to predict the future on the basis of one election,which we do not know what the outcome will be.
ReplyDeleteTime will tell! The SNP has had zero donations in the last year and the party is in 800K in debt and there is a missing 600k from the books, the SNP is also dependent on the volume for money it get from Westminster on the volume of MPs its sends to Westminster. So explain to me how does the party pays its bills when it has no money. The party is in such terrible state that it had to move out of its head office in Edinburgh in order to safe money they can't even afford to buy stamps. So 8:28, time will tell and I don't believe you'll have long to wait.
DeleteI actually sent them, the SNP , £60 a couple of weeks ago. And I'm a pensioner.
DeleteSometimes you do have to vote for the least worst and , in Scotland , the most independence oriented candidates that have a chance of winning.
Yes there's too many gradualists, too many devo maxists and far too many fearties.
Nevertheless, they're better than Britnat Labour MPs.
And there's a chance of pushing them to more action. And in 2026 Alba list votes might just gie them a richt fleg.
Politicians often respond to pressure.
I’m struggling to understand why so many are still defending the SNP.
ReplyDeleteOk they’re making positive noises about independence now, in the run up to the GE, but why has it taken so long? Do people really think, once the election’s past, they’re going to continue with independence to the forefront? I very much doubt it and think it far more likely they’ll go back to their old ways.
Alex Salmond has always made it clear independence is the main priority, and this was confirmed when he launched Alba’s election manifesto.
Anybody serious about independence should be voting Alba (in the 19 seats they’re contesting) without hesitation. Really, we should be looking for Alba to win at least a few seats, as they really focus on independence, but no doubt plenty will stick by the SNP.
I understand, in the seats Alba aren’t contesting, the SNP may be the only viable option, and personally I wouldn’t even consider voting Labour though I understand people abstaining because of their disillusionment with the SNP.
In seats where Alba are standing though, surely it’s a no brainer to vote for them, in the knowledge you’re voting for the one party with independence to the forefront.
Jim good shout out for voting Alba but ISP also have
Delete" independence to the forefront" .
Apologies IFS, I should have mentioned ISP.
DeleteI’m sure you agree with my main point though. People who are serious about independence should be getting behind the parties that have always had independence to the forefront, in large numbers.
Plenty are now pointing out that the SNP are putting independence front and centre, but don’t seem to see that it’s only because of the fact there’s an election looming. They may continue in this vein after the election, but I have grave doubts.
We’re in the ridiculous situation now that there’s probably more chance of the Tories retaining a couple of seats in Scotland than the parties that really focus on independence (Alba, ISP) winning a single seat!
The above comment was me.
DeleteJim at 9.43am - even when there is an election they cannae always keep up the pretence that independence is important - see my post below at 9.53am. Flynn knows that with independence his job
Deletegoes. As do the rest of them - another reason for voting for a party that supports abstentionism at Westminster. They just end up like comfy slippers Pete Wishart and the party gets to like and rely on the short money from Westminster.
I AGREE WITH STEPHEN FLYNN. SNP ex MP
ReplyDelete"VOTE FOR WHAT YOU BELIEVE IN " says Flynn
On Question Time on Thursday Flynn said you should vote for the party that best reflects your views. He then went on to outline SNP policies. Independence was not mentioned. I expect a party that CLAIMS (at times) to want independence to be top of the list.
So I agree with Flynn but I will not be voting SNP as independence did not feature in his list of priority policies. Not a surprise to me. A good bit of advice from Flynn though - vote positive not negative.
Absolutely!
DeleteHere, that means abstention. But if you have Alba or ISP or Eva Comrie or Angus MacNeil in your seat, go for them.
FPTP is a shite system from top to bottom. Vote with your conscience and let the politicians connive.
IfS. I would be amazed if you, as a staunch Britnat, would vote SNP. Why break tge habit of a lifetime.
DeleteTroll alert at 12.38pm. Back when I first posted on SGP diddies like you called me a Britnat for using the term Britnat. The diddies like you said I was a Britnat because nobody they knew who supported independence used the term Britnat they always use Unionist. This is the type of dense trolling I have put up with on SGP. And here you are many years later using the term Britnat. My guess is you are a WGD numpty.
DeleteWithout the SNP there will be no Independence why can’t some people on this site see it. The SNP has a plan just because you don’t agree with it doesn’t mean it’s not a plan. Alba have plan but get real without any elected officials it will go nowhere. Switch on and smell the honey vote SNP everywhere. Don’t let the unionists spoil the party.
ReplyDeleteAnon at 10.00am - what is this SNP plan you refer to?
DeleteTo Anon @ 10.00am, I think it is our older generation who will revert back to labour,I dont think the majority of indie supporters, fed up with snp, will vote for any unionist party I think they will stay at home or vote Alba where they can and greens where they cant, in a short time all will be revealed.
DeleteFatherTedCrilly
The SNP’s plan is simple:
Delete1. Lordships for Wishart and Blackford
2. Accommodation with Labour on a new Devo Max Vow scheme
3. Fatten their cheeks
4. “Only a vote for the SNP can save Independence!” again at the next election
They’ll keep on doing it for the rest of their careers if they aren’t stopped. They’re addicted to the money, perks and limited powers of the status quo. They will not stop from their own volition.
Anon at 10.00am - is that you at 11.05am😀. Probably not. So what's keeping you - come on tell us the plan. Is it the DrJim and others plan that involved Sturgeon getting it declared illegal to have indyref2 that somehow magically delivers independence. Is that the plan?
DeleteAnon at 10.00am - or is it the just keep asking for a sec30 gold standard referendum until infinity and beyond? Come on anon let us know. What's the secret?
DeleteAnon at 10.00am - or is it we get independence in the polls consistently up to 80% and Westminster say ok the games up and you can have your independence? Come on anon - so many possibilities floated - what is the plan?
DeleteAnon at 10.00am - surely it's not the de facto referendum. If that's the plan it's being kept very secret - what is the SNP plan to deliver Scottish independence? Does anyone know? Is there one?
DeleteIs ifs in a prison cell and has nothing else to do or is paid by the britnats. -either way your wasting your time on Independence supporters. Family have all posted their Votes for the main independence party in Scotland.
DeleteNot wasting his time on me. I've already posted my vote for the pro-independence party Alba, not the unionist devolutionists of the SNP
DeleteStill no SNP plan was forthcoming from anon at 10.00am or any other diddy anon like 1.28pm. The whole of Scotland is in a prison anon numpty at 1.28pm and you just voted to keep all of us there for longer.
DeletePre-moderation makes sense to me. However much of a pain it is for you.
ReplyDeleteAs an asside, apparently the highest ranking GE political thing on TicTok is a clip of Nigel Farage lip-synching an Emnem tune. Some Rishi thing about conscription is second. In case people don't know, TicTok is how most people under 30 get the news. As far as TV debates go, people under 30 don't watch TV. The more benighted political partys stretch to spending not much cash on Facebook stuff that people would have to deliberately search for.
ReplyDeleteAnd I agree with the comment, above: I haven't seen anyone campaigning for anything (apart from a couple of Wee Frees stalls about creationism, and some Sheku Bayoh posters).
I wonder if people here ever contemplate the fact that even amoungst the great majority of independence supporters there are considerably more important things than Scottish independence?
ReplyDelete**Sighs**.
DeleteIndependence is a means to doing better on those other things. For example healthcare. In an independent Scotland it will be better funded. Jobs - in an independent Scotland they will be better. Etc.
Yes. Not only here, even Stu Campbell brings it up. Independence has slid as an issue in the last 10 years to a pitiful ranking behind all sorts of problems it alone can fix.
DeleteSo the next question: why?
Because there’s a void at the top of Scottish politics where an active and inspiring independence party should be?
Anon 11.07
DeleteExactly, the SNP and wider Yes movement have not beaten this drum enough. Too busy, understandably, talking about process.
Independence can also be viewed as an excuse for people who can't be bothered making changes in the here and now.
Deletethe SNP are having a big party post election; the band are all time favourites
ReplyDeleteCamper van Baby Box
To ALL YES SUPPORTERS:
ReplyDeleteAlex Salmond sets out ALBA's prospectus:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOcRnoQypk4
If only he was brave enough to stand for election. By next Friday no ALBA MP’s.
DeleteAlex Salmond is just a big bully who is determined to harm the SNP. His personal poll ratings are piss poor he is yesterday’s man when will he get it. I hear he stays at Newlands in Glasgow these days. Someone else stays as well she in the Alba party as well.
DeleteWho is Nicola living with? Big butch Val McDiarmid?
DeleteSalmond disnae need to do much to harm the SNP if thats what he wants. The SNP leadership have done a magnificent job since he left in harming the SNP.
DeleteGERS says we can't afford indy anyway; some guy said countries like us, in EFTA, have double the GDP per capita that we do, but GDP is always quoted in dollars and when you put in back in pounds, it's not so much. Nats are trying to fool you.
ReplyDeleteDoctor! We've got someone here who think GERS is genuine!!
Deletecorrect - but also - you won't have any GDP at all if England takes back all its pound notes.
DeleteAnon at 12.39. If only this was satire.
Deletethe english are the dirt we walk upon, let's remember that; the wind beneath our feet, the soil over our wings - without them, we are nothing
DeleteIn terms of historical debt going back to 1707 with interest and in today's terms, England owes Scotland somewhere between £2 trillion and £5 trillion. That'll do for me.
DeleteToo much oil.
DeleteToo much wind power.
Too much forestry for carbon capture.
Too many resources outright.
And definitely far Too Stupid to run their own affairs.
Bloody Tory canvasser at my door. Tried to hand me another leaflet which I rejected. Told him Gulhane should have been honest and stated he was an MSP on his leaflets. I asked why he needed two jobs. Canvasser said he would give up his MSP job. Told him he should have stated that clearly on his leaflet. Would he resign immediately I asked - no he replied. So he wants two years in both jobs I said. Yes he said - will you vote for him. No I said.
ReplyDeleteThe fact here Is the main result of this election Will be the obliteration of the conservatives, including many SNP-Tories contest.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP Will have more than 10 seats in any case, which Is ten times more than the single seat Labour won at some point, and a good platform for the next Scottish elections, when Starmer will be so unpopular and the Tories will be transformed into some fascist party with Farage
Can't be long now till KC admits to being a Reform UK guy and wants all the Nats sent on a plane to Rwanda.
ReplyDeleteWho is KC ? Only James and you seem to talk about him/her. I'm genuinely lost. What is there tell?
Delete@12:50, I’m confused as well, just don’t get it.
DeleteThe only KC I know is KC and The Sunshine Band, they were Quite big back in the seventies and eighties. Think they were American.
He's a unionist troll who posts under a variety of names or anonymously to try to fool you.
DeleteIFS, actually I’m a wee bit concerned Reform UK might take enough votes from the Tories down here in Dumfries and Galloway to hand the seat to the SNP. Two horse race here.
DeleteI think it’s just an outside chance though. This will be counter balanced by Labour and LD voters voting tactically against the SNP.
Have spoken to a couple of traditional Labour voters in last few days who’re comfortable voting Tory, as they know Labour are going to win a landslide UK wide, and whether the Tories win or lose D & G won’t matter a jot.
Hand them their jotters, KC!
DeleteBack on point: if Farage is set to storm to power as the English Trump after Keir’s failed everyone; we Scots need a viable independence proposal and the political will power to achieve it against determined British resistance.
Indy doesn’t magic itself up for us. 56 independence MPs and Brexit proves that. Even if you believe in Salvo’s claims about the treaty of union and all the rest of it, facts on the ground must follow and that will take guts and thoroughly extra-legal moves according to the Scotland Act and the Brits. We must get back into fighting shape when we see it coming.
Who is KC - a Unionist troll who first posted as a kid on independence supporter called a Tartan Tam then again as KC another kid on independence supporter. He is a royal worshipper so the KC is probably Charlieboy.
DeleteThat's him posting at 2.57pm when he comes out of hiding. And probably again at 2.42pm. Despicable person. Don't believe a word he says.
Not me at 2:42 IFS, you’re wrong once again😁
DeleteOr you.
DeleteYouGovs poll has had a methodology change. Crosstabs show an unpublished Holyrood poll completed days before. A 6 pt SNP lead at Holyrood became a 4 pt Labour lead. If that's methodology change, because a 10pt shift in days just doesn't happen...why?
ReplyDeleteWhy? Because Holyrood and WM are different. The SNP is viable in Holyrood—as you may have noticed since 2007—but in England’s parly they are doomed to eternal irrelevance. That moves many votes. Just look at 2010 when Labour stormed back to a thumping win north of the border despite the SNP wins in Holyrood before and after it.
DeleteI am hoping the reform party can save us from the european neo fascist super state.
ReplyDelete- by aligning with the north american uber fascist hyper state and freemarket trade deals and freeports.
The more the BBC scares the shit out of people with Farage as the UK’s inevitable next leader, the better the argument for leaving them, too.
DeleteI hope the BBC realises that. They’re playing with fire, north as well as south.
A lot of shy reform voters out there by the way.
ReplyDeleteI don't like the racism in their quarters but immigration does need brought under control. Protest vote maybe.
I bet there’s a tight correlation between reform’s vote and the English born population in the constituency. Scots have had plenty of opportunities to vote for Farage before and we keep on failing to do so.
DeleteAbsolute stick on, the English living here rarely become part of the country
DeleteThey just exude ownership
I thought Alba would be more visible in Alloa and Grangemouth around the BP issue.
ReplyDeleteAs a Falkirk bairn, I know many would like to protest that refinery decision.
Hard gig I know. Not being critical, I know it's hard but have they even been up the town etc? Not seen a dickie bird from them in Falkirk.
Meant to say, keep fighting the good fight though. Many are with you in their hearts even if they don't vote for Alba this time.
DeleteVote for Eva! 😉
Deletehttps://archive.is/65Ax4
ReplyDeleteEvery time that complete and utter plonker Flynn opens his backsliding comfy Westminster salary mouth I feel like never ever voting SNP again.
I haven't actually done my postal vote yet - any more of his don't care about Indy bought by Westminster gold crap makes it likely I won't. HE is one of the SNP's problems.
"“We're still 50/50 in the polls and that's not good enough."
What a dick.
Disagree I like him. Strong voice for Scotland. 50/50 isn't enough. No point pretending otherwise to make us feel better
Delete50% + 1 is exactly enough. That's how voting works.
DeleteIf Flynn was my MP I definitely would not vote for him. Mine is Patricia Gibson, she's OK. My wife is voting for her because of her WASPI campaign, and it looks like I'll be doing the same as if Flynn is typical of the Westminster SMP MPs, THAT is why there is no de facto referendum - they don't want to lose their cushy pots of gold. I despise most of them. Elected under false pretences.
DeleteI'll shut up now.
Anon @ 1:10, 50%+1 is enough if you’d be happy with a country forever divided and the constant threat of civil unrest.
DeleteCobblers
Delete1.28
DeleteIf we'd won by one vote in 2014 it would have been accepted.
The more than 50 plus 1 is to get the referendum
Were at 50/ 50 just now and there's no civil unrest
DeleteIn 2012 support for Indy was at about 28%, but that didn't stop Salmond going for the Indy Ref. Had it been up to fannybaws Flynn, we'd never have had Indy Ref, and Indy would not be mainstream.
DeleteIt didn't stop him but he didn't win either. If we were to fall short
Deleteeven by one vote a second time we would struggle to move on from there. Just look at Quebec, 30 years since their narrow defeat on their second referendum. The desire for independence has risen since 2014. If it continues then it will become the norm for Yes to be 55%+ in the polls. That will be risk free position. 50/50 is a gamble.
To be honest I'm surprised Boris didn't agree to a second referendum. It may have been the last time No could have hoped to win and Boris was a risk taker. Starmer is the most risk adverse politician I've ever seen. He will agree to nothing.
I'm in this to win and if it takes time sobeit.
50/50 in the polls isn’t good enough as there’s generally a swing (probably about 5%) towards the status quo in actual referendums from the polls in the run up. Just stating a fact.
DeleteLike Brexit ... not.
DeleteOr indyref for that matter!
DeleteWGD numpties keep posting pish. Shrimp if we cannae win a referendum now or since 2014 why did your great hero Sturgeon keep promising a referendum since 2017. Was she lying? Is she a charlatan? Did she just want the money and the votes?
DeleteI don't expect an answer. Shrimp like so so many of the numpties who post on this site just run away when asked a pertinent question.
Oh by the way Shrimp Quebec is irrelevant and not comparable. Just another pathetic excuse by numpties for the SNP doing nowt.
To answer your question James. I would have everyone identify themselves - not with pretend “I support independence” type brigade but real names. Until that happens some folk like me will continue to post as anonymous as long as the bully like ifs posts.Their fixation with the FM x2 ago is also bordering on stalking.
DeleteTroll alert at 4.31pm.
Delete@ yesindyref It's no surprise to anybody that you're not voting SNP
ReplyDeleteAre you illiterate, Nigel Farage? Was there something about "Mine is Patricia Gibson, she's OK. My wife is voting for her because of her WASPI campaign, and it looks like I'll be doing the same" you didn't understand? Want to go 50-50, call a friend if you have one? Ask Jeremy?
DeleteCalm down, yir2.
DeletePut a sock in it, anon, you muppet.
DeleteI have a feeling that all polls are suffering from a labour effect, ie people are saying they will vote labour but many will switch at the last moment or not turn out. I think the SNP often perform slightly better than predicted and while I may be over optimistic labour winning may actually benefit the independence movement in the longer term, as when they fail to improve things then Scots will begin to lose faith in the union in increasing numbers.
ReplyDeleteThat comment reminds me of people who used to post just wait till Boris Johnston is PM. Labour and all the Britnats parties are colonial oppressors.
DeleteVOTE SNP is the best option.
ReplyDelete...if you like carrots more than independence.
DeleteOnly buttered with freshly ground tellicherry pepper. Thank you. See you.
DeleteIn the absence of a technical solution to trolls, you could include a regular postscript to the article along the lines of what you wrote here, a sort of 'here be dragons' for those trusting enough not to realise that others may comment disingenuously on a political blog. Alternatively, such a postscript could state that a purpose of the blog is to inform accurately and that those seeking to spread misinformation are not welcome. It won't stop them, of course, but it might have the similar effect of helping your visitors to understand what they are seeing.
ReplyDeleteWho is this Gina Livingstone you keep going on about?
DeleteWhat I find frustrating is that too many Independence supporters fail to grasp that at no election or referendum have a clear majority of Scots voted for Independence or Indy supporting parties .Until we do that there is no mandate for Independence and no amount of shouting and bawling about the Claim of Right will change that.
ReplyDelete50%+1 votes should be the benchmark to begin Independence negotiations.In the real world Westminster will refuse to negotiate.There is nothing Alba etc can do to force them to the negotiation table .
You can forget International support . Westminster will just argue that to end a Union of over 300 years will require a super majority.The idea of super majorities is one that is quite common among European nations to change their constitution s. Remember also the USA fought a civil war when the Southern States tried to succeed from the Union
Yes we will argue that this is unfair undemocratic etc but the moral argument is always we have got
This is going to be a long hard struggle to free Scotland,it suits Westminster that they have blocked any democratic route to Indy . Scotland is too rich in resources to let go easily . Westminster is banking on Scots being too apathetic to rise up against Westminster rule .
You have posted this misinformation a few times and I have corrected it a few times. I'm guessing you are Britnat KC again with your concern trolling.
DeleteIn 2015 the combined total of the SNP (50%) and the Greens was over 50%.
It's not "unfair democratic etc" its colonial oppression by England.
You guess wrong IFS.
DeleteI’m fortunate enough to have an Alba candidate standing in my constituency, so it’s a complete no brainer for me to vote for him.
ReplyDeleteI firmly believe all true independence supporters should vote for parties really focusing on independence, ie Alba, ISP, where possible. I can’t for the life of me think why more indy supporters aren’t like minded. Surely Alba at least should be winning seats, but I fear the majority will still vote SNP, for more of what we’ve had in recent years.
The real problem of course is what indy supporters do in seats where there is no viable alternative to the SNP. I guess many will either hold their noses and vote SNP or abstain, which I understand. People shouldn’t vote Labour though, which would be counter productive. It’ll be no use after the election claiming a certain percentage of Labour votes were Indy supporters, as there’s obviously no way of proving it, and of course unionists won’t wear it.
Agree. Where ALBA is standing vote ALBA. Where ISP is standing vote ISP. Where Green is standing vote Green.
DeleteThere will be some seats where SNP are the only pro-indy option. Here one could I suppose vote SNP if desired, or abstain.
This is a UK general election. People aren’t voting for or against independence, it’s much more complicated than that. Of course the media and opponents of independence will attempt to paint a poor SNP result as ‘a blow to independence’, but as we have seen clearly over the last year or two support for the SNP and support for independence do nor correlate at all. SNP support is clearly down, whilst support for independence seems pretty much fixed at just about 50%. Or to put it another way, half the voters in Scotlands support independence, but are not voting on that just now but on the best way to get rid of the Tories.
ReplyDeleteExcellent analysis. Agree 100%.
DeleteAye , but Labour is winning in Englandshire big . Scots Labour MP.s will count fair naught amongst the 300+ English .
DeleteVote SNP , at the very least they will highlight how Great British energy will be a rip aff fae Scotland. Spending billions to feed oor energy across the border. They'll be draining Loch Ness to supply them with water next. Nae joke!
Vote Alba if you must ( though better to wait to 2026 when the vote might count) but please don't vote Britnat.
Saor Alba
Labour will use a bad result for SNP as a reason to further weaken and reduce devolved powers. Total pro Indy votes will, as always, be ignored. Why do you find this such a difficult point to grasp?
DeleteWhere ALBA is standing vote ALBA.
ReplyDeleteIs it standing on a coal scuttle?
DeleteAnd SNP where they are not . Or SNP anyway as Alba probably willnae get mair than a few hundred votes in each seat. Better to wait to 2026.
DeleteWhere Alba is standing they will shortly be failing. Votes in the hundreds in each constituency. It’s not their vote numbers that are the problem, it’s the hugely damaging narrative they feed to the BBC and MSM that is the problem.
Delete