The first Ipsos MRP projection of the campaign is out. It puts the SNP on 15 seats, which is at the lower end of projections from other firms, but there are some silver linings. The range for the SNP is between 13 and 23 seats, so the central estimate is closer to the floor than to the ceiling. Additionally there are popular vote figures given for Scotland which are better for the SNP than quite a few of the online polls in this campaign. And although the fieldwork isn't bang up to date, it's more recent than any poll we've seen apart from the Norstat one.
Labour 36%
SNP 33%
Conservatives 13%
Liberal Democrats 8%
Reform UK 5%
Greens 3%
Note that the fieldwork seems to have been conducted among the Ipsos online panel, so these numbers aren't directly comparable to the Ipsos telephone poll which had the SNP level with Labour.
A couple of other interesting points: Ipsos make clear that MRP projections are less reliable in Scotland than in England due to the gaps in Scottish census data, and the official SNP candidate is projected to be well ahead in the Western Isles even though Ipsos took the special measure of prompting for Angus MacNeil by name.
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I was scoffed at yesterday (not by you James) when I said that my hunch was that the SNP would get somewhere between 8 and 15 seats. It looks as though I'm not far off.
ReplyDeleteI've been watching the polls and reading the official analysis and my view is that many more SNP or independence supporters will stay home if they're not satisfied with the party's performance.
I still hope that I am wrong.
My hunch is that turnout in Scotland will be down sharply, exacerbated by the start of the school holidays, favouring the Tories and motivated Labour voters.
"It looks as though I'm not far off."
DeleteActually given the varations between the firms it looks as if it could be almost anything. 15 say Ipsos, 37 say Survation. Others are in between.
Jacob72 Hedging your bets again. My hunch is…. My big toe swells when labour is doing badly….. if, buts, maybes.
DeleteEither way, try and talk down SNP so folk don’t vote. I think I’m right.
I think there will be a major lack of turnout for the SNP, where is the motivation to vote for them at this point in time?
ReplyDeleteThey do not want to pursue independence, are becoming more and more despised for their domestic record, and there is the strong incentive to help Labour become the next UK government. I couldn't think of a worse tripartite for the SNP heading into a general election.
My prediction is less than 20 seats for the SNP.
Tootie Blaisdale
Delete48-20=28, well within the current projections, Toots.
DeleteI think they’d be delighted to come off as lightly scathed. They’ll lose more seats than they keep.
Your motivation should first and foremost be to minimise the number of unionist M Ps in Scotland. We know for a fact that they do not represent Scotland, they represent their unionist little inglander racist thieving masters in London. If that is not enough motivation have a look in a mirror, and own the consequences of how you vote. Sorry to be so blunt.
DeleteLook in the mirror and "own the consequences" of saying the same thing every day (or just get a new slogan).
DeleteAnon at 6.17. Is that it? You haven’t even grasped the basics of getting a message across. It Clearly works, because here you are responding. That just hasn’t dawned on you yet. But I suspect you’re not interested in Indy anyway. Just another of those taken in by the lies and disinformation of the BBC and MSM. Let’s have all your novel points and ideas then. No? Thought not.
DeleteAs I always rubbish Ipsos polls, I'm going to be consistent and admit this one probably underestimates the SNP.
ReplyDeleteAgreed.
DeleteBlimey!
DeleteYou're fired.
DeleteAre the MRPs not getting wildly different results in some aspects- particularly the smaller parties like the SNP (smaller in the UK-wide context)? Makes me wonder how sound they are
ReplyDeleteSorry 😞 that was me making a comment. Technology!
ReplyDeleteAnon, I have said this to you before, please stop the one-word "quack" comments. I have no idea what they're about, and I don't really care. Just stop.
ReplyDeleteLess than half the number of seats predicted by Survation and More in Common.
ReplyDeleteConfused.... to put it mildly.
R.
Michael.
The Survation MRP had the SNP on 37% of the vote, the Ipsos MRP has them on 33%. When you look at it that way, it's a very small difference, even if it has a huge impact in terms of seats.
DeleteSurely a sub sample for Na h-Eileanan Iar from a Scottish poll is next to useless?
ReplyDelete"Subsample" is a bit of an inappropriate word for an MRP projection. They say themselves that in atypical races the projections will be less meaningful but they've clearly made a genuine attempt in those seats all the same.
DeleteTa.
DeleteJust back for a week travelling in Hebrides. AM posters present in good numbers from Barra to Lewis. First poster for any other candidate (SNP) appeared on the edge of Stornaway.
DeleteAlways a hard to predict constituency but my guess is the SNP have no funds and no people to campaign properly. AM appears to have both.
If posters in windows were the winning metric, then Edinburgh went Alba in 2021, with the Greens in second place. If only that was the case.
DeleteHardly ever see a Libdem poster here in West, yet Cole Hamilton won anyway, with 55% of the vote.
By percentage of population the SNP has raised more funds than any British party for this General election
DeleteI've been jaked for three days solid in Koln
ReplyDeleteNice viewing
Ooh you're terrible! You should get some of that apple jelly.
DeleteRob here, forgive me if I'm confusing something you've said, James, with something I thought I heard from a polster on the radio, but... MRP results are less acurate in Scotland because there are gaps in the census data when compared to England. Significant?
ReplyDeleteLooks like the labour candidate for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East has been sacked for pro Russian comments, given the Douglas Ross controversy in this seat, should hopefully be a nice win for SNP
ReplyDeleteWho knows?
DeleteWhere does the balance of scunnered SLAB voters go? SNP? Con & Unionist? Honestly couldn't say.
The NE does its own thing as ever. I get a nosebleed beyond Stonehaven.
Cheerio, Brian
So do I. When heading south. Ginger Passport.
DeleteHad a giggle when the SNP literature fell through the door.... Oy the SNP will stand up for Scotland.
ReplyDeleteLOL...
Like in 2016 when 56 out of 59 seats were in SNP hands, and nearly 2/3 had voted Remain, and every week Blackford proclaimed the SNP would not allow Scotland to be dragged out the EU/Single Market against her will.
How did all that standing up for Scotland work out then, when the numbers would've made a difference?
Can you imagine how much standing up there'll be with 15 seats?
Easy to promise to open negotiations for Indy if you win a majority of seats when it's a highly unlikely outcome. What's stopping you from doing so now?
Just checking, do you mean now, in the middle of a GE campaign?!?
DeleteBrian
Still waiting for ALBA literature but I am not sure there are any volunteers to say -we won’t win any seats but SNP you better listen to us or else. 2% trying to dictate terms is really very delusional. labour/tories/lib dems are all British unionist to the core. Pro Brexit, pro big business and tax dodgers.
Delete"2% trying to dictate terms"... Worked for the Greens.
Delete"Do you mean now"... Always an excuse. Do you get free leopard print shoes with every "now is not the time"? It's never been the right time to give up the Short Money, nor will there ever be.
Hi, Anon, are you offering to send me some free leopard print shoes? Sounds fun. Brian.
DeleteThe independence plan in the Manifesto the SNP have just released genuinely says: "It is through the power of democratic pressure that we will secure the right of people in Scotland to decide their future"
DeleteDoes anyone seriously hand-on-heart believe that the next UK Government will succumb to "democratic pressure" if the SNP somehow manages to win at least 29 MPs?
Brian, 'now' could have meant any time in the last decade when the SNP has held a majority of seats at Westminster and has done nothing to 'open negotiations' on independence. It's disingenuous to suggest they can't do it now because we're in the middle of an election campaign - their record tells you they will do nothing anyway.
DeleteOn a serious note, what do people here think the chances of Angus MacNeil holding on in Western Isles?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Brian
He only got a majority of 2,438 in 2019 so it will be close.
DeleteReally depends how many votes the SNP candidate Susan Thomson gets tbh. Would be a little ironic if it ends up being the SNP's fault for the seat going Labour.
Awe...moving swiftly on, eh Brian? And here was me thinking we were all set to talk about shoes.
Delete"On a serious note", will it rain tomorrow?
There...gave you an easy one...50/50 chance! Wha'dya recon?
Too tricky?
Ok, an easier one... What percentage of former SNP voters, members etc. now regard the SNP as a roadblock to Indy and see every move made in this campaign where Independence is touted as being just a cynical exercise in self preservation?
Have a good, please...
Have a good... what? Brian
DeleteAhh - not MacNeils fault if he gets beat. It is all those folk that know him well (too well) and don’t want to vote for him. I mean wheres their loyalty to the s……. Sorry to his ego.
DeleteAnon @ 3:39 PM Couldn't the same argument be made about Pete Wishart, John Nicolson, Anne McLaughlin etc
DeletePeople dislike a number of SNP MPs on a personal level for a number of reasons but are still being asked by many (including most SNP supporters on this blog)) to vote for them in order to keep out the unionists.
By the same logic shouldn't we be supporting Angus MacNeil as he's the best chance of keeping out Labour in his constituency?
Yes, if that is indeed the case? Is it? I've no idea. Where is the evidence either way? Brian
DeletePrompting for Douglas Ross in Aberdeen North and MorayEast might have something to do with the 41%/27% split inSNP favour. On the other hand, 3% for Neale Hanvey (also prompted) in Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy seems inexplicably low.
ReplyDeleteHi. Elijah. What 41 / 27% split? Is this a MRP you are referencing? Thanks, Brian
DeleteHi Brian! Remember me?
DeleteIt seems the Nationals groupies from ALBA are demanding Independence Now. Answer No. Now what do they propose. They greet enough so they must have a plan even if it’s not cunning. Maybe Salmond hasn’t told his acolytes yet.
ReplyDeleteIt seems the SNP groupies are begging Westminster for permission to leave. Answer no. Now what do they propose? They criticise enough so they must have a plan. Maybe Nicola hasn't told her fan club yet.
DeleteTook me 10 seconds to find it: https://www.albaparty.org/scotlands_strategy
DeleteLet's be honest, it's a better plan than just ""It is through the power of democratic pressure that we will secure the right of people in Scotland to decide their future".
More SNP jam tomorrow.... If only they had any actual jam to give.
DeleteMaybe you could get apple jelly. My auntie Ella makes it but there's an awful lot of sugar in it. It keeps fir ages though and it's scrumpy yummy on thin toast.
DeleteWe all ken that voting SNP at this GE won't get us independence .
ReplyDeleteThe reason to vote for them is to keep Indy in the public eye and give no excuse for Westminster to ignore us ; they will anyway but it'll be more difficult with a large SNP group.
Meantime, we need to put pressure on those SNP MPs elected. The time to increase that pressure will come in 2026 by voting a real pro Indy party on the second HR vote .
Soar Alba
It's not the "public eye" or Westminster who needs reminding of Indy....it's the SNP! They only seem to remember their raison d'etre come election time.
DeleteIf only they were as keen on Indy as they are all their other hobby horses.
The SNP are obsessed with Indy say the Unionists. Aye right! They're all gaslighting us!
You've missed the point. Or , mair likely you're a Britnat troll. If SNP lose most of their seats or fail to win a majority the Britnats will crow and unionist politicians will make hay, maybe even putting futher barriers in the way of independence. But maintain a large SNP group then in 2026 they can be held to account.
DeleteSoar Alba
Nobody should believe Swinney and the SNP regarding independence.
ReplyDeleteThey’ve done nothing on Indy for years, why the hell should we believe them now?
They need to be made to understand we’re not taking it anymore. Hopefully a heavy defeat at the GE will be the wake up call they need, and things change before the Holyrood election.
They’re certainly not getting my vote in this election.
A heavy defeat for the SNP would b e interpreted as the will of the Scottish people being much less interested in independence.The SNP have a manifesto that focuses on many things such as the eradication of child poverty that can only be fixed by independence.Since the first line of the first page of the manifesto asks voters to vote for the SNP to make Scotland an indpendent country,I do wonder what the priority is of some of the people on this site? damaging the SNp is not going to bring independence any closer. l
Deleteanon 514 I suspect the SNP were never getting your vote ever. Usual brit troll.
Delete7:01 That's the way. Stick your head in the sand like a good ostrich - everybody's a Britnat troll so you don't have to think about what's gone wrong with the SNP.
DeleteAsk yourself who benefits from all this anti-SNP talk?
ReplyDeleteUnionist politicians is the answer.
Then ask yourself whether all these anti-SNP posts are made by concerned Yes voters…. or maybe if some are not.
Brian
There is a considerable number of polls now though that highlight a big disconnect in support for independence and support for the SNP.
DeleteThat isn't fake news or a conspiracy, it's a harsh reality the SNP really need to address.
I'm sure some are angry and bitter with the SNP and think division will give birth to new life...generally though it just gives birth to more anger and bitterness. Others are likely concern trolls, which is just a fancy name for deceivers and liars. Political activists with no honour or self-respect.
DeleteThis election may be a turning point. One where the SNP are no longer represented in numbers in Westminster and the Starmer Party have a massive majority. In two years the country may be very sick of the Starmer Party and the Holyrood elections become a lightning rod for discontent. If not and the SNP lose Holyrood then we might as well take up a hobby. It will be years before we get another chance at independence.
We all know that the SNP losing even 15 seats will be weaponised by Labour. Thus used as proof Scotland has shelved independence.
ReplyDeleteOf course every man. woman and dug on the street know that is utter crap. But that's the way the media will play it.
Now the conundrum for yes voters. Returning an SNP majority will likely change nothing. Indeed it will embolden Swinney and his cronies.
So if we want to send a message to the SNP. That we will not accept another 5 years of inertia. The only way we do that is silent protest. By staying at home.
I am not telling people what to do. Simply pointing out the outcomes , and how they will be used.
The SNP are entirely to blame for letting down Yes voters. And for forcing this moral dilemma on us all. If they were even talking about independence, it might help the situation.
I am just pissed off with everything , and the way things have gone. I genuinely don't know what is best to put a rocket up the SNP.
Many of us agree BUT you make the case for voting SNP in this GE - because Labour etc will use a poor SNP result as evidence that Scots have lost interest in Indy.
DeleteTherefore hold your nose just now vote SNP and use HR second vote to send a message to them in 2026 .it's less than 2years!