The latest batch of GB-wide polls don't really confirm the impression of a few days ago that Labour were slipping back. The new Deltapoll survey has Labour steady at 46%, while Redfield & Wilton have them up one point to 43%. However, two of the new polls do show a very tight race between the Conservatives and Reform UK for second place, and Redfield & Wilton actually have the two parties level -
Labour 43%
Reform UK 18%
Conservatives 18%
Liberal Democrats 12%
Greens 5%
SNP 3%
Plaid Cymru 1%
I've been just a touch concerned about the relatively high proportion of GB-wide polls over the last few days that have had the SNP on only 2%. Obviously no individual Scottish subsample is worth much, but when it starts to become a pattern you have to wonder. But we'll see what the next full-scale Scottish poll brings. (And of course yesterday's Norstat full-scale poll had fairly recent fieldwork and showed the SNP going slightly up, rather than down.)
The Tories are going to get absolutely hammered, 1997-style, and for just the same reasons: contemptuousness and sleaze in office, and a low turnout from their disillusioned voters.
ReplyDeleteI do think they’ll beat Reform in votes, let alone seats, on the day itself however. Tory voters are trapped in the same dilemma SNP loyalists foist on Yessers: vote for us, we don’t deserve it, we are not listening to you, but the other guy is worse. How many Tory voters really want 500 Labour MPs and a realignment in English politics that sweeps away everything they’ve supported? Some of them will come home. They won’t like it, but they’ll do it.
150 seats feels like the Tories absolute floor to me. Pure guesswork, based on 1997 and 2001’s results. Enough to keep the BBC on speed dial and ensure that nothing changes after all. The establishment’s choice.
I see no reason whatsoever to assume the 1997 result is some sort of floor. John Major was a titan compared to this shower.
DeleteI actually think the SNP today are a lot like Labour supporters in Scotland pre-2007: Vote for us Scotland, we're the only viable option available to keep out the Tories. A vote for anyone else is a wasted vote!!
DeleteSNP supporters today: Vote for us Scotland, we're the viable option for independence. A vote for anyone else is a wasted vote!
Do you actually *want* to lose the pro-independence majority?
DeleteThe SNP have no intention of progressing the debate, let alone delivering a second referendum. Unfortunately the Indy movement has to risk what could be perceived as a step backwards by voicing discontent via the ballot box. Nothing will ever change in the SNP remain in power. They hate-keep independence. It’s nothing more than a gravy train.
DeleteIs the answer to my question "yes"?
DeleteThere's as much chance of the SNP delivering independence as Labour reforming the House of Lords.
DeleteSay your primary focus was House of Lords reform, would you keep voting Labour out of the hope that they might one day actually do it?
I would argue that we don't have a pro-independence majority at present.
DeleteActions speak louder than words and the actions of the majority of these so called pro-indy MPs to date doesn't indicate that they actually want independence to happen.
How can we lose something that doesn't exist?
DeleteTwo small problems for you there, James. 1. When we got an indyref there was no indy majority at Westminster. 2. Whenever we have had an indy majority at Westminster there has never been an indyref.
DeleteNo shortage of unionists on here masquerading as concerned Indy supporters. Silly billies
DeleteTo answer "yes" to that question, you would first need to presume that we actually have a pro-independence majority rather than just the perception of one.
DeleteIf you don't believe we currently have a pro-independence majority, then we can't lose something that doesn't exist. This makes the question moot, when you don't agree with the premise behind it.
The opening anon, here.
DeleteI may be a silly billy, but I really did vote SNP in 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2011, 2016, 2017 and 2019. For the first time in my adult life, I won't be voting for them in July. They don't deserve it. No indy, no vote from me.
Oh, and 2021, when I voted SNP in my constituency and Alba on the list. Easy to forget about that election. Look at what it achieved!
DeleteWhat's about to happen makes 1997 look like a gentle slap; Labour had 43% to the Tories' 30% back then, a mere thirteen-point lead. This very poll shows Labour on 43% again, but the Tories way down on 18%, a colossal 25-point lead.
DeleteA very close comparator is Scotland in 2015. The SNP almost got 50% with Scottish Labour coming in at 24%; a 25-point lead.
I'm not saying the Tories are gonna be down to single digits, but the question is which two-digit number they could have. The situation is so extreme that any drinking games involving "Portillo moments" could be deadly. It's baked in, unless Starmer and Farage simultaneously shit in their own beds.
Anon at 10.34 and 10.36. It’s your choice but own the consequences. I’m not willing to contribute to a unionist majority of M Ps in Scotland. That’s my choice.
DeleteAnon 10:34 You should know by now that anyone critical of the SNP on here is a 'Britnat unionist'. It saves the cultists having to question why they've lost support. And remember too, we all have to 'own the consequences' of our vote, although the SNP loyalists never want to 'own the consequences' of another five years of inertia by voting for the same old mouldy carrots offered by the SNP.
DeleteJames, I’m 10:22 anon and the answer to your question is Scotland NEEDS to lose the current Indy gate-keeping SNP majority in Scotland to frighten them into action. Otherwise they will never ever change. I’ll be voting Alba next month.
DeleteI think they do as they aren’t independence supporters. Usual pretend voter. Expect more over next few weeks.
ReplyDeleteI used to vote SNP but not anymore because……. Fill in with Mail/Express headline. Silly billies.
DeleteI still vote SNP because I love carrots and still believe in jam tomorrow.
DeleteA piece and bramble jelly. Canny beat it.
DeleteI would have said jeely but realised there are many britnats on here masquerading as Scots.
DeleteGosh we have some fractional comedic geniuses on today. Drink really is a curse.
DeleteAt least Johnny will cap my phone bill. Which is £0
ReplyDeleteRor too long on this site,the delay in achieving independence,has resulted in us turning upon ourselves.I suggest that there is a need to refocus by considering the implications of the verdict of the Supreme Court.
ReplyDeleteThe judgement of the supreme court ruled that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to to legislate for a referendum.However,in the small print,it stated that the UK government could do little to prevent independence if a majority will emerged.
By preventing the means of creating evidence of a majority,the government has thus far,prevented the Scottish people providing a majority will.
Each election has the potential to demonstrate the will of the people.Therefore it makes sense to vote for a pro-independence party that has a chance of actually winning.In the next election that is the SNP,who have stated on the first line of their manifesto that:A vote for the SNP is a vote for Scotland to become independent.Logically ,if the SNP do not succeed in that election,The UK government and the international community will see that as evidence that the will of the Scottish people is to reject independence.The point of voting SNP is to maintain the cumulative effect of the Scotland showing that we want independence.Kate Forbes the Deputy First Minister has said that we should make independence the centre of the next election. That is important,irrespective of whether the UK government agree to a referendum.If they do not we move on to a defacto referendum at the next election for the Scottish parliament.We should always keep in mind (as the Supreme Court states) that the route to independence is a majority will of the Scottish people,We should never reject any opportunity to try to do that.We need to move beyond blame anger and stay focused on the path to the ultimate goal.
We need to stay focused on the ultimate goal and to move beyond blame anger and setbacks.We also need to be united in the effort to achieve the ultimate goal.The independence movement is not just the SNP,but we do need to be strategic.Kate Forbes,Deputy First Minister has stated that we should put independence at the centre of the next election,and that we should ensure that views of all parts of the independence movement informs strategy.We might have a lot of work to do,we know that a majority will is what we need to achieve.
stay focused on that.That will require cooperation and support among all parts of the independence movement
The biggest annoyance is that following the Supreme Court ruling Nicola Sturgeon said the following:
Delete*** First of all, it is worth repeating that the Court judgment relates to one possible route to Scotland making a choice on independence – a referendum Bill in the Scottish Parliament without Westminster agreement.
While it is absolutely the case – if the UK was a voluntary partnership – that this would not be needed, it remains open to the UK government, however belatedly, to accept democracy and reach agreement.
I make clear again today, therefore, that I stand ready at any time to reach agreement with the Prime Minister on an adjustment to the devolution settlement that enables a lawful, democratic referendum to take place – a process that respects the right of people in Scotland to choose their future, in line with the mandate of the Scottish Parliament, lets politicians make the case for and against independence and, crucially, allows the Scottish people to decide.
What I will not do is go cap in hand.
My expectation, in the short term at least, is that the UK government will maintain its position of democracy denial.
That position is, in my view, not just unsustainable – it is also utterly self-defeating.
The more contempt the Westminster establishment shows for Scottish democracy, the more certain it is that Scotland will vote Yes when the choice does come to be made.
As for that choice – and for the avoidance of any doubt – I believe today, just as I did yesterday, that a referendum is the best way to determine the issue of independence.
The fact is, the SNP is not abandoning the referendum route.
Westminster is blocking it.
And in that scenario, unless we give up on democracy – which I, for one, am not prepared to do – we must and will find another democratic, lawful and constitutional means by which the Scottish people can express their will.
In my view, that can only be an election.
The next national election scheduled for Scotland is the UK General Election, making it both the first and the most obvious opportunity to seek what I described back in June as a de facto referendum.
As with any proposition in any party manifesto in any election, it is up to the people how they respond. No party can dictate the basis on which people cast their votes.
But a party can be – indeed should be – crystal clear about the purpose for which it is seeking popular support.
In this case, for the SNP, it will be to establish – just as in a referendum – majority support in Scotland for independence, so that we can then achieve independence.
That, then, is the principle.
However, now that the Supreme Court’s ruling is known, and a de facto referendum is no longer hypothetical, it is necessary to agree the precise detail of the proposition we intend to put before the country – for example, the form our manifesto will take, the question we will pose, how we will seek to build support above and beyond the SNP, and what steps we will take to achieve independence if we win. ***
The moment required bold action and it seemed like we were finally going to get it... but then nothing. Nicola Sturgeon resigned and then it was if everything she said above never happened. We just went back to how things were previously.
Even now it's as if the mandates achieved in the 2017 & 2019 General Elections alongside the above speech have been wiped from memory. For some bizarre reason all of that didn't matter and they just need one more mandate in this election and the plan is to do what was said will never happen again: Go cap in hand.
When it comes to a de-facto referendums we've regressed to it being the only viable option left available to us to it just being a hypothetical option to "give consideration" to at some unknown point in the future. The "plan" is frankly a mess.
Is tht what you have being doing for the last decade?
DeleteI shows.
And any 'mandate' achieved in this election or the next Holyrood one will also disappear like snaw aff a dyke the minute they get their bums parked back in the comfy chairs.
DeleteEvery mandate has merely been a plurality for a second referendum. None of those elections have returned a popular majority for independence itself. Assuming that holding a referendum is enough would be a mistake. If you consider every election since 2016 a de facto referendum in hindsight, we did not win any of them.
DeleteThe British government isn't blocking us because they're certain they'll lose; it's because the answer genuinely is uncertain. Their preference is obviously for a clear unionism win, but that is followed by a clear independence win. Flipping a coin? No way, never again.
Indeed, there may never be a second referendum, but that is because the route to one is for a clear popular majority to back independence in any election. In which case independence has been won anyway.
Everywhere it shows
ReplyDeleteKnow how longit takes to get a cateract operation? And you're obsessed with a legal decission?
ReplyDeleteWelcome to the tedium of Scottish constututianal twaddle
ReplyDeleteI agree with what Anon !0:47 has said.I assume that the respnse from Anon 11:53 and !1:58 are based on frustration and mistrust.That I understand, However,It is necessary for all of us to engage with reality.The reality that the UK government, will be aware that the Supreme court has said that independence will be possible when the majority of the Scottish people express their will for independence.Thus they will do anything to prevent that from happening.Therefore ,as Anon 10:47 has said,every election is has the potential to demonstrate the will of the Scottish people.In response to Anon 58,yes I am aware of how long it takes to get cateract surgery,I am also aware of why it takes so long and understand that the problems of our NHS,can only be fixed with independence.
ReplyDeleteThe Anon at 11:46 AM raises a few important questions though.
DeleteThere's been some wilful forgetfulness over things that have been said/promised in the past, in particular what was said in the lead-up to the 2017 & 2019 General Elections and immediately after the Supreme Court ruling in November 2022.
I agree but we need to move on.There is a new SNP leadership,and the argument that it is necessary to win every election is still valid.The essence of this argument is that the cumulative effects of winning election after election is critical in order to overcome the resistance of the UK government .As the Supreme cout said in small print.It would be difficult for the UK government to resist independence if the collective will of the Scottish people for independence was clear.We have seen the danger of easing up on the media,where it has been suggested that voters are not so interested in Independence just now.To counter that,it is vital that the independence party that has the best chance of winning is succesful.
DeleteSwinney can hardly be described as a fresh leader though. He kept all of Humza Yousaf's Cabinet (only change was adding in Kate Forbes) & he was essentially Sturgeon's right-hand man. A prominent figure in her Government & Deputy First Minister during her entire time as Leader. He's literally the definition of a continuity candidate.
DeleteYou can't just "move on" without addressing the elephant in the room that he had a large part to play in all previous election campaigns and leadership decisions.
Well that is true,but you cannot conclude from that that John Swinney does not understand what needs to change within the party In any case there is a need to look to the future and win every election to demonstrate that independence remains important to Scottish voter.Since the supreme court has said (in the small print) that it is unlikely that the UK government could resist the will of the Scottish population,All elections should be central to all elections,and the next Scottish election should be used as a defacto referendum.I spoke to John Swinney on Sunday and he confirmed to me that is being considered,should it be necessary.
DeleteI just spotted the typographic error.I meant to say that independence should be central to all electionsJ Kate Forbes argued for that during the leadership election last year,and John Swinney confirmed that during his visit to Inverness on Sunday.
DeleteTrouble is we've heard that before. Independence was central to the 2017 General Election and it supposedly gave us a triple-lock mandate for a referendum Westminster would be unable to ignore.
DeleteThen at the 2019 General Election independence was central to the election as Scotland had the choice between two futures: Brexit or putting Scotland's future into Scotland's hands, something Westminster would again be unable to ignore.
Why are we pretending that independence wasn't central to those elections & the comments made by Nicola Sturgeon after the Supreme Court ruling that Westminster was blocking the referendum route and we shouldn't be going to them cap in hand.
This election feels like a waste as it's just the same rhetoric being used again as the last two. There's no need for one more mandate as we have more than you can shake a stick atm. This election should have been the de-facto referendum for the reasons Nicola Sturgeon outlined in November 2022.
Maybe then there would have been a chance of it being successful, instead we're facing the reality of it being considered a success if the SNP can manage to hold onto 20 MPs.