GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov)
Labour 37% (-1)
Reform UK 19% (+2)
Conservatives 18% (-)
Liberal Democrats 14% (-1)
Greens 7% (-1)
SNP 3% (+1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Scottish subsample: SNP 34%, Labour 31%, Liberal Democrats 12%, Conservatives 9%, Reform UK 7%, Greens 5%
The Scottish subsample is reassuring but only up to a point, Lord Copper - there was a substantial Labour lead in the YouGov subsample on Tuesday, and it would probably be more realistic to average the two. However, large successive Labour leads would have been deeply concerning, so in that sense this result is a major relief.
The most interesting aspect of Reform UK's breakthrough into second place is its potential psychological impact. Could that in itself encourage more people to vote for them and accelerate the Tory meltdown?
As for Labour, they're now several points below the vote share Jeremy Corbyn recorded in the 2017 general election. Starmer may have changed Labour since the Corbyn era but not, it would seem, in a way that has made the party more popular. He's also threatening Tony Blair's record for the lowest winning vote share in any general election ever (35% in 2005).
Looks like a drift in England from some potential Labour voters to Reform. Farage said on LBC yesterday that his lot were picking that up in their campaigning.
ReplyDeleteWatching the debate on ITV, I was taken aback by Farage's casual tropes/lazy half truths, like massive class sizes full of immigrants. School roles are falling because our birth rate is low. However, he spouts the stuff papers like the Mail and Express are fond of. As far as I can see these papers may well be backing Reform rather than the Tories.. it is going to kill the Tories stone dead and give Labour a huge majority; even on 38% I suppose more worrying is what horrible Tory/Reform hybrid is born from the ashes. If Labour fail to deliver growth and have to fall back on cuts the next election may be a grim prospect for us all.
DeleteFascism or Independence awaits. I know which I'd choose.
DeleteUnfortunately, Farage carries weight with a lot of older white members of the English working class and, as Brexit proved, they buy into his right wing bigoted nonsense. The Scottish working class have no truck for Farage or his policies.
DeleteI wonder who the 7% of voters in Scotland who think Reform UK is relevant to their lives.
Delete@7:09 likely the Orange Order members
DeleteThis poll is interesting, but as a lifelong unionist what really troubles me is that the gold standard Ipsos polls keep showing pro-independence majorities. Deeply worrying for us Yoons.
ReplyDeleteYes, when people ask me what words sum up the current emotional state of unionists like me, I say "worry" and "concern".
DeleteI'm sorry I posted my postal vote with NO so soon, I regret my NO vote, I should have voted YES, and look at Farage, Sunak and Starmer, we'd be free free free of these monstrosities if only I had voted YES. I'm so sorry.
DeleteGordon Brown, GBE
What concerns me is that Ipsos appears to be one of several polling companies that show pro independence majorities.
DeletePretty much the only company that used to reliably show anti-independence results was YouGov, but whether they'll be able to afford any more independence polls without the Tory funding, I just don't know. So worrying.
I'm obliged to admit that what you're saying is correct!
DeleteI’ve just looked at polling on Scottish independence on Wikipedia, and apart from Ipsos several other companies have issued polls showing pro Indy majorities. Let's hope YouGov don't go to the wall due to the Tory donations drying up. They're the only remaining hope for us worried unionists.
This shows how antidemocratic the First past the post system is, a party with less than 40 percent could have a big majority of seats
ReplyDeleteThe Starmer loving media establishment don't seem to understand that promoting Farage takes almost the same volume of votes away from Labour as it does the Conservatives. This was most evident at the EU election in '14 and, to an extent, at the 2 subsequent GEs until the "deal" with Boris to deliver Brexit in GE19. The media, whilst besotted with Starmer, appear ignorant of Farage's appeal to normally Labour voters. (Can't abide him myself, but others, mainly down South, clearly feel differently. He is certainly clear and articulate, Ill give him at least that). Rayner was very off-form, almost spooked in tonight's ITV leaders debate. Repetitive, almost robotic. She will undoubtedly be well aware of this fact, being perhaps a bit more "in tune" socially than pretty much every single one of her colleagues now.
ReplyDeleteFlynn was, to his credit, truly exceptional, especially challenging Labour on the abandonment of their principles, as was the lad from Plaid Cymru. Green lass was convincing and genuine.
There is a drift back to the SNP in Scotland. Looking at the polls,first sign was last week in the Survation MRP poll followed by sub-sample leads in the polls from Opinimum and Delta-Poll on Saturday night.
SNP certainly got my vote this time.
R.
Michael.
Farage can be clear and articulate as he has a simple message, simple solutions to complex problems, does not have responsibility for anything, no record of government to defend. He won Brexit without having had to produce a white paper or run a country for several years.
DeleteSorry *Rayner being aware that Farage appeals to normally Labour voting demographics too, not just the Tories, unlike her bourgeois establishment class colleagues in Labour and their media friends who, because they are so socially detached from ordinary people, imagine Farage only takes votes away from the Tories.*
ReplyDeleteWhy on earth is Angela Rayner Deputy leader of the labour party?
ReplyDeletecar crash.
This Labour manifesto is a fiasco, it seems even more to the right than the conservatives
ReplyDeleteI hope the SNP win the election and win it well in Scotland. The polls have been bad for the SNP and the party has gone through a very bumpy patch. The SNP have been put on notice and they know there are a lot of pro indy supporters wobbling towards Labour and ALBA. If the SNP do hold onto most of what they won back in 2019 then they owe it to the indy movement to get independence back onto the agenda for the Scottish parliament elections.
ReplyDelete"If the SNP do hold onto most of what they won back in 2019 then they owe it to the indy movement to get independence back onto the agenda for the Scottish parliament elections."
DeleteAnd if they don't everyone on here will still be saying that we need to keep voting for them to keep the independence dream alive, they're the only viable option etc.
It's a neverending cycle.
It won't happen. The SNP abandoned independence a long time ago and has no desire to return to it lest they all lose their cosy sinecures at Holyrood and Westminster in an independent Scotland. They're quite happy to stick with the woke nonsense that attracts the 'youf' vote and saw them cosy up to the loopy Greens for years.
DeleteI keep seeing the SNP attacking Labour with "The IFS say that you'll need to make £18 Billion of cuts!"
ReplyDeleteBut the IFS have also previously said that independence would lead to a decade of austerity in Scotland.
If you're accepting that the IFS are right about Labour wouldn't that also mean they're right about independence?
Anon 7:24,the powers of independence would let us take action on Scotlands priorities-from tackling the Westminster made cost of living crisis to protecting public services like our NHS eradicating poverty and building a fairer economy that works for all of us.The SNP government in Scotland has achieved a lot with the limited powers of devolution.For example,reducing child poverty,free tuiition,the highest number of GPs per head of population in the UK,and free prescriptions,to name a few of the 100 achievements introduced.With the full powers of independence much more could be achieved.With independence we can build a prosperous economy,provide our people with opportunities they deserve,and offer the support they need during difficult times.
DeleteAnon @ 8:11 AM I agree but I just think it's odd to give credibility to a source to attack Labour considering what they say about independence. You either accept that they're right about both or right about neither.
DeletePlease provide your evidence for the so called shambles Anon 8:39.Unexamined rhetoric is not evidence.The list of SMp achievements,such as bringing children out of poverty is an achievement,among many outhers.Of course there is a limit to what devolution can achieve,especially if Westminster has responsibility for funding the Scottish government.Of course there are problems,but many are not caused by the Scottish government,although they get blamed for them.Fot example our health care system has been damaged by Brexit and Covid.Brexit because many European health care professionals left,and Covid because many professional became sick.I hear unionist MSPs criticising the Scottish government ,but offering no solutions.How convenient it is to be in opposition.
DeleteJust mentioning some of the things that's happened since the Resignation of Sturgeon (which only happened just over a year ago btw):
Delete* Peter Murrell resigned as SNP chief executive after providing false membership figures.
* Peter Murrell, Nicola Sturgeon & Colin Beattie all arrested as part of an investigation into SNP finances.
* The SNP installing the architect of 'The Vow' as their new chief executive.
* Peter Murrell charged in connection to Operation Branchform.
* Former SNP MP Lisa Cameron defected to the Conservatives.
* Former SNP MSP Ash Regan defected to the Alba Party.
* The SNP lost the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election to Labour by a substantial margin.
* Covid-19 Inquiry: The starling admission that Sturgeon & key members of her Government all deleted their WhatsApp messages.
* The chaos of the Greens time in Government which led to money being wasted on several failed policies such as the Deposit Return Scheme.
* Ditching of the commitment to cut emissions by 75 percent by 2030.
* The Michael Matheson Scandal.
I could keep going if you want?
No one with a serious face can honestly say we've had an uneventful time in Scottish politics in the past year. If it's not failed policies or losing court cases it's yet another arrest, resignation, defection or scandal.
DeleteThe only argument that was used until now is that the Tories are just as bad or worse... that's gone now as it's clear that the electorate in England intends to punish them significantly. There's no leg left for the SNP to stand on to defend the chaos we've all had to suffer through.
Anon at 12.35. Care to put some detail to your assertions. Wipe down your keyboard and try to get out more. You need the exercise for all the walks you have coming up in July. How is the diet going, you silly billy you?
DeleteI guess I can join all those former SNP MPs on their walk towards the job centre in July.
DeleteAnon 6:36 am,voting SNP is not only to keep the dream alive.The first line of the SNP manifesto for the general election on the 4th July states that a vote for the SNP is a vote for Scotland to become an independent country.The process is as follows:
ReplyDelete1) If the SNp win the election in Scotland,they will negotiate with the UK government to hold a referendum
2) If the UK governmennt refuse,The SNP will make the next election for for the Scottish Parliament a defacto referendum
3) If the majority of the electorate support the SNP,the process to facilite independence will begin.
I understand impatience.I have wanted independence all of my life,but I do think that this is the best way to overcome the legal challenges and resistance of the UK government.If others disagree,please explain how you would overcome the roadblock erected by the UK government
"If the UK governmennt refuse,The SNP will make the next election for for the Scottish Parliament a defacto referendum"
DeleteWhere exactly have the SNP officially stated this and why haven't John Swinney or Stephen Flynn bothered to mention it as it's quite an important detail to the plan?
Anon 8:01 if you go into SNP. Org and click on independence you will find information about conference proposals for the SNP manifesto.There is more detail than I provided in my earlier comments,such as:
DeleteThe SNP will demand the permenent transfer of legal power to have a referendum,and to establish a constitutional convention.John Swinney confirmed some of this in an email to all SNP members.I havent read the manifesto yet but I did have a discussion with SNp candidate in Inverness,Skye,Lochaber and Western Ross.He confirmed the process towards independence that I mentioned in my earlier email,including using the Scottish Parliament election as a defacto referendum,should that be necessary.It is misleading to think that SNP leaders are avoiding independence just because they are focusing heavily on what they are hearing on the doorstep.They have to respond to peoples concerns about cost of living,poverty,poor dental services and so on.What they are trying to do (and Flynn does this very well) is to talk about how independence can eradicate these problem independence achieved),because just now,voters are more focused on daily concerns,than how independence will be achieved..
Anon 8.37 . To deny a country a legal route to enable it's self-determination is anti-democratic to the extreme . UN charters recognize this.
DeleteThere is also the risk that if the ballot box is incapable of achieving the people's desired constitutional aims , some might turn to less peaceful means. Let us hope that democracy wins oot!
Anon @ 8:49 Though the SNP have already dropped motions that were passed at Conference without any consultation with members. For example:
Delete** Conference further agrees that the SNP will seek to add the words “Independence for Scotland” or words to that effect, to the party’s name and logo on the General Election ballot papers to make it clear beyond doubt what’s at stake at this election. **
In regards to using 2026 as de-facto referendum all that's said is that "consideration should be given" to the idea. That's far from a firm commitment.
Cracks me up every time I see “de facto” referendum mentioned.
DeleteSurely only the most deluded think there’s even a slim chance of such a thing ever happening.
A Labour landslide is likely, but I don't feel there is much enthusiasm across the UK for Labour as there was in 1997. It seems that this will be an election where the Tories will lose, rather than one where Labour win.
ReplyDeleteI see 77th is busy here.
ReplyDeleteThey must be shitting themselves as they are so busy here.
Anon 9:30 my SNP candidate believes that a defacto referendum during 2026 will happen,should it be necessary.John Swinney will be in Inverness on Sunday,and I will check with him.I do think that the first line of the SNP manifesto,is much more relevant to the aims of the SNP is more relevant than a statement on a ballot paper,however I will discuss that with John Swinney also.I cannot see any posabilty that the SNP would not implement their manifesto pledge,unless a better way of advancing independence was found
ReplyDeleteWe definitely need firm details and official confirmation on everything. The days of proceeding on hope are long gone.
DeleteMost thought Nicola Sturgeon had a secret plan, we just had to keep the faith: We know what happened next. We then got assurances of a no-ifs, no-buts 'there will be a referendum on the 19th October 2023'... which obviously came and went.
Fewer are willing to 'just give them a chance' this time as they've had several.
12:16 Lists tellus very little about context,relevance and evidence to support conclusions that individuals make about events.We could all construct our own lists, of events but doing that without a cogent analysis of the contributing factors ,the consequences for individuals involved,tells us very little,other than the biases of the person constructing the list.
ReplyDeleteBut it's different when it's your opponents though.
DeleteHow many people here are willing to do an analysis of the contributing factors and the consequences for individuals involved before attacking the Tories? The events listed for the SNP are very similar to things the Tories have done but they're obviously never given the benefit of the doubt?
Tories are scum ; ask the deputy labour leader
DeleteHeadline in the Herald:
ReplyDeleteCurtice 'not as unpopular' as Douglas Ross but 'not in same league as James Kelly'
Well, quite.