Happy Hate Crime Eve, everyone. (And it's Easter too, apparently.) I'll just very quickly give you the MRP seats projection from Survation's new mega-poll for the Sunday Times -
Labour 468 (+265)
Conservatives 98 (-267)
SNP 41 (-7)
Liberal Democrats 22 (+11)
Plaid Cymru 2 (-2)
That would obviously be a quite astonishing achievement for the SNP - they would have made Scotland the only place in Britain to resist the enormous Labour tide, they would hold the vast majority of their current seats, they would retain majority status among Scottish seats, they would hold off the Liberal Democrats to retain overall third place in the Commons (thus retaining Stephen Flynn's weekly questions at PMQs), and they would wipe out the Tories in Scotland.
If that sounds a bit too good to be true, it may well be. In popular vote terms, there is a very narrow band of results that would have the SNP at 40+ seats at one end of the band, but on 15 or fewer at the other end. When we see the data tables from this poll, it may turn out that the SNP are nestling at the favourable end of that narrow band, in which case they're still in considerable peril. Remember also that Survation have tended to be more SNP-friendly than some other polling firms since Humza Yousaf became leader.
This is a signal that Humza has done well as leader.
ReplyDeleteHe's growing into the role and has shown sureness-of-touch. He made a great speech at conference. We can all agree.
DeleteI agree with anonymous😁😁😁😁😁
DeleteMinus 7 SNP MPs than in 2019.
DeleteMinus 15 SNP MPs than in 2015.
What is the common result of the 2015 and 2019 elections? Answer - The SNP will do nothing to achieve Scottish independence. I forecast that whatever the result of the 2024 election the SNP will continue to do nothing about independence. So they ain't getting my vote because they aint a party of Scottish independence.
Ifs: your words are too negative. 2019 was an unusual election so that maintaining the seats in that election was nevet likely.
DeleteWhy do you keep saying this? What was it about that election that was so unusual? Apart from England going collectively insane and electing Bozo, I don't see what was unusual about it in Scotland.
DeleteYou don't think 2019 was unusual election with an unusual backdrop?
DeleteAnonymous at 1.24pm - was 2015 an unusual election as well in your mind. In your mind was it the same unusual reason or different unusual reason or were there multiple reasons in both 2015 and 2019. Or are you just an SNP propagandist posting pish. I favour the latter judgement. Too negative - tough.
DeleteAnon @1:57, Apart from the Bozo factor which only affected England, no I don't. And I think it's interesting that you keep repeating the same mantra without ever explaining why you think 2019 was uniquely different. If it's so obvious, tell me what was unusual about it - what's so hard about that?
DeleteIt’s called a talking point, fellas. His job (whether he’s paid for it or not) is just to spam the lines he’s given. Not to engage with you, or his brain for that matter.
DeleteSettling into the sausage roll, displaying a sureness of intimate touch…
I think you may be right because he's been banging that particular drum for weeks yet we never get a sound from him in terms of explanation.🤔
DeleteThe question I’d like answered is who sends him the talking points.
DeleteAnon at 2.55pm - my answer - Murray Foote.
DeleteI understand that this poll suggests the SNP will win Orkney and Shetland, Western Isles, Edin West, etc. Do these problematic issues destroy any credibility this poll may have?
DeleteCan't see them winning the Northern Isles as they've been a Lib Dem stronghold for years and are full of English incomers anyway who are generally pretty attached to Mother England.
DeleteVOTE SNP
ReplyDeleteVote SNP if you don't want independence. Too negative - tough. That's the current reality.
DeleteVote Carrots!
DeletePurely IMHO here, but I'd say this reasonably good SNP figure is related more to the discontentment creeping in now in Scotland with Labour's stance on a multitude of issues, whether it be praising Thatcher, maintaining and actively supporting Tory economic and welfare policies, or supporting a genocidal far right Israeli regime.
ReplyDeletePeople in Scotland are not stupid, and in spite of the establishment media relentlessly promoting Labour's front bench as almost messiah like figures, there is little love in Scotland for any of them, especially Sir Keir himself.
I believe the SNP will do relatively well at the GE, all things considered, because of this dissatisfaction with Labour's steady and marked rightward drift and not due to any "star qualities" in Yousef or indeed any actions (or inaction) of the SNP, who are possibly in a slightly better situation now than they were at this time 22 months ago.
Have to say, again IMHO, Flynn has grown immensely in stature. His style and delivery is quite similar in many ways to the late John Smith. Definitely a rising star.
Regards, Michael.
Was kind of agreeing with this and then the last paragraph made me think it might be satire
DeleteApologies above, post came up as "anonymous". Dinosaurs and technology don't mix sometimes!
ReplyDeleteRegards, Michael.
I think you have it half right, Mick. I’m expecting a low turnout with an SNP slump and a unionist tactical swing to Labour that will mask just how many of their voters are just as scunnered with them.
DeleteUnlike Labour, the SNP doesn’t have a willing pool of anxious Tories and Liberals to swing to them to defend the union. So the SNP’s drop should be more apparent than Labour’s.
The irony of Tories voting for the party that will eviscerate them in Westminster is not lost on me, but Starmer has given his all to make them interchangeable. Quite how Labour’s 2024 vote compares to 2017 in Scotland will be telling. That rightward shift will turn off their base while it attracts tactical voters.
DeleteAnd the irony that unionist voters are still so motivated to block the SNP is not lost on me, either. The very reason I can’t bring myself to vote SNP this time is their lapdog cosiness with the UK status quo.
It is good reading but as James Kelly has said, it may also be quite a precarious situation. The one thing that I do hope us that it will aid SNP activists who are out on the doorsteps campaigning.
ReplyDeleteI 100% agree that Humza has done an incredibly good job as SNP leader. This poll shows that with a bit more luck the SNP will in my opinion gains seats at the next election allowing us to declare Scotland as independent.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP gaining seats? Oh brother…
DeleteI know. I'll have some of what he's smoking!
DeleteKC is smoking Britnat cigars celebrating who is in charge of the SNP.
DeleteWe can be happy who’s in charge of Labour. Everyone can see the open goal ahead of us once Sir Keir has a Blair-sized Westminster landslide but with none of the air of (false) hope, here in Scotland. We then find ourselves in a very interesting position indeed: it is demonstrably not the Tories who abuse Scotland, it’s Labour too. In fact, it is the UK itself. That will put the wind in our sails again.
DeleteOf course, the SNP can still squander it. But that’s Scotland’s choice to make. England is already decided: no love for Scotland, we’re in the doghouse, never to return.
It's not inconceivable. For all Labour's fighting talk about being ready for an election, Starmer has been quietly dumping pledges for the last two years. When they finally have to publish their manifesto they're going to struggle with selling it.
DeleteReverse Brexit? No.
Electoral reform? Forget it.
More devolution? Not for you, Scotland.
Just come across this site yesterday.
ReplyDeleteInteresting discussions, though I can’t make my mind up about the “Independence for Scotland “ character that seems to comment more than anybody else.
The way he continually slags off the SNP, you have to wonder if he’s actually a unionist.
Aye right you have. I have to wonder who you are as well.
DeleteNo he isn't and he's been commenting here for years. His 'crime' apparently is to be an independence supporter who has no faith in the SNP to deliver. Given what's happened (or, rather NOT happened in the last 10 years of SNP governance), I'm inclined to think he's something of a political savant!
Delete+1 more for IfS. He’s acerbic but he’s right.
DeleteJeff - not good at arithmetic are you. At present 30 comments. 18 by anonymous. 18 is "more than anybody else". But I'll try and post some more to make you look better. Generally, when someone calls me a Unionist I don't take it well.
Delete+1 more. I agree with Anon 3:54😁. Leave IFS alone, we should start a campaign.
DeleteLong time lurker here now free of anonymity (thanks for the advice Indyref2) and I'm also a fan of IfS and his iconoclastic posts. Give the guy a break ffs!.
DeleteJeff, yesterday's article by James entitled Moderation policy....... 46 comments posted - zero by me. If you are genuine then I suggest you up your game before your next post.
DeleteIndependence for Scotland, you appear to be someone with a high opinion of yourself.
DeleteIfS is a strange one. You only have to mention his favourite Conservative and Unionist, Stuart Campbell, and he shows up foaming at the mouth.
Delete😂😂😂😂😂😂😂- 5.18pm and 5.22 - the exact same posts have been posted on previous occasions. You ain't genuine.
DeleteAnon @5:22, What on earth are you on about? The only person in this conversation who has mentioned Stuart Campbell is you! I think you're the one who is foaming at the mouth. Ask your nurse for more pills.
DeleteFelix and Independence for Scotland, I don’t tell “porkies”, I’m 100% genuine.
DeleteIn fairness, I can understand your reservations a bit, as I can see there are a few on here who aren’t genuine. The KC guy in particular seems a bit of a pain in the backside.
Jeff, well I'll take your word for it but remember - I'll be keeping my eye on you😉😁
DeleteJeff - - you are genuine are you. So you just happen to use the same words used by an anonymous on previous occasions. Coincidence is it!!! Well I'll ask you the same - have you got a low opinion of yourself? Well you should if you are KC and probably are. Alternatively, you have posted previously as anonymous and are telling porkies.
DeleteIndependence for Scotland, I can assure you I’m genuine, though see little point engaging with you. I came on here to give an opinion, not to get involved in arguments.
DeleteJeff - really why did you post your initial comment - read it again. As genuine as a £9 note.
DeleteIFS, my own suspicion is that Jeff is one of KC's innumerable personas but I'm not going to pursue it as it's not worth the time playing his daft games. Don't let him draw you in.
DeleteFelix - yeh pretty sick of these numpties. Not as bad as the GWC era but getting there. KC putting so much effort into it it makes you wonder if he is paid to disrupt just like some of the btl posters on WOS.
DeleteDespite James reservations, I feel it’s clear Yousaf and the SNP have now turned a corner.
ReplyDeleteExcellent news for all supporters of independence. I think it’s fair to say we can look forward with some optimism, after what’s been a very difficult period.
Anon at 3.28pm - was that period the last 10 years?
DeleteThe SNP has turned that many corners that they've gone round the houses and are back where they started - the road to nowhere.
DeleteImagine trying to tell any of us that in 2014.
Delete2014 was a long, long, long time ago. Everything changed, yet nothing did.
DeleteThe number of seats won or lost by the SNP will be irrelevant if they continue to refuse to do anything radical about independence like adopting abstentionism. In five years time we'll be in exactly the same situation. DC
ReplyDeleteAgree with 3.28
DeleteAgree with 5:34
DeleteAgree with myself!🙂
DeleteDisagree. 😅
DeleteAgree to disagree 😜
DeleteWill the ALBA party or other alternatives still exist after the general election with no MP’s?
ReplyDeleteThe more interesting qn is will they be relevant?
DeleteThe SNP’s 40 MPs certainly won’t be, against Labour’s 400.
DeleteWe don’t want to stick our noses in English politics. We want out.
Some of the commenters here are slightly too negative about SNP politicians. These politicians work hard. They are aware that people on fora such as these are negative. But the SNP politicians know that the comments of the people here are not representative of the wider public who are more appreciative of their work.
ReplyDeleteAw, diddums! 😢
DeleteI pretty much agree with you.
DeleteSome of the comments on here criticising the SNP seem a little over the top. I get why some are a bit disillusioned with the party at the moment but I do feel things are improving.
At the end of the day we need a strong SNP if we’re going to secure independence. People will have to get behind the party sooner or later.
I can exclusively reveal that Anon at 7.39 and Jeff McLean are exactly the same person. Shocking, I know.
Delete“We must all get behind” is the new “settling into the rôle.” Rewarmed pish still reeks of pee.
DeleteSame answer I gave yesterday.
DeleteThe SNP will keep on treating us with contempt if we keep clapping our hands like happy seals and certain Ginger Dugs. Your vote is your reward for their behaviour. Your vote is your complicity with their back peddling on independence. Your vote is your permission for them to abandon any attempts whatsoever towards independence in our lifetimes. The future of Scotland is in your hands. Don’t buy into their narrative of despair. Blackford and Wishart will be retired from their long careers in the Lords before Scotland will be free.
No. I will have no part in that. Let the party suffer the consequences of its own inaction. I will return when they get back to business.
Anon at 8:18, well I can reveal Anon@7:39 most certainly wasn’t me.
DeleteWhat the hell is it with some of you people on here?
We're truth tellers. Awful, isn't it?
DeleteWhat “truth” is that? Humza is doing great and the SNP will win Scottish independence in the coming parliament? Are you into Ufology too?
DeleteJeff - who is new just happens to parrot all the same phrases others have used under the anonymous label. A complete and utter phoney and a time waster. Just like the SNP.
DeleteAnon @ 8:29 A post so good you made it twice and quite right too.👏👏👏
DeleteIfS Rather than be unwelcoming why not be welcoming of Jeff?
DeleteI think it might be because Jeff introduced himself (3:16) to the blog by suggesting IfS was a unionist. Not exactly the friendliest of opening gambits was it? Why don't people leave the guy alone? Every day sees a pile up on him to provoke a reaction - it's pathetic.
DeleteNo need to welcome a regular, even if he has a new name.
DeleteI was 7.39 and was not Jeff at 7.56. Different posters.
ReplyDeleteAnon at 8:39, aye some on here are quick to jump to conclusions (often the wrong ones).
DeleteTo be clear, this is "Jeff" making an elaborate pretence to be two different people.
DeleteAnon at 829. Seems you inhabit a perpetual negative world. You will return when the snp gets back to business? Well your aren’t really interested in independence in my view. You expect others to do the carrying?
ReplyDeleteReally, the rest of us will keep pushing for independence the best way we can - maybe not up to your high standards of inaction- suckin your thumb on your chanty of dispair.
I certainly hope the snp will place on the ballot paper “for independence “. That in itself will bring folk to the ballot box.
H
Seems you inhabit a dream world of you think today's SNP are interested in independence. You expect others to be as gullible? The rest of us will vote how we please, maybe not up to your standards of gullibility while drinking the kool aid from Nicolas chanty.
Delete8.53: it seems you want the luxury of opposition.
DeleteMight as well, being in government has achieved sod all these last ten years.
DeleteIt is a defeatist attitude, 9.11.
DeleteOh piss off!
Delete8:29 here. Opposition, you say? Tell me, when the SNP won 56 of Scotland’s 59 seats in 2015, was our astonishing mega tsusnami of a win enough to get us into government?
DeleteBecause I seem to remember David Cameron remained prime minister, praised by the English media for his outright majority.
Scotland does not count at Westminster. We won almost every inch of it and achieved NOTHING. Feel the power!
9.27 you misrepresent the goal.
DeleteThose who wish to remain in opposition and not to fight for independence are British nationalists. At least be upfront about it.
ReplyDeleteH
Go away you utter cretin.
DeleteI’ll take that negative response as proof that I am correct!
DeleteH Independence, first & foremost
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteH - let me help you out. I mean you were quite good in Steps even though you rarely sang. You are probably being called a cretin because it is impossible for the SNP to be anything other than in opposition in Westminster. Unless, of course, you think the SNP should go in to government with Labour or the Tories. So, in summary, anon at 10.37pm does make a reasonable point based on the evidence you have provided to him.
DeleteThis poll must really be annoying for all the Alba supporters seeing as how their two vote thieving MPs look like losing their seats to Labour and costing the SNP and Scotland the effects of their behaviour
ReplyDeleteAh wait, probably not, it's the very reason Alba exists
I thought everyone hated Alba and won't vote for them so the glorious SNP should be able to win their seats back no problem. If you're looking around for someone to blame for the party's inevitable kicking at election time, you'll need to look closer to Bute House and the last two occupants thereof.
DeleteThe lack of clear thinking in these numpties is remarkable. Alba took SNP seats they cry but when there is an election the numpty now says Labour will win them. So they weren't SNP seats then were they.
DeleteMay I respectfully suggest that anonymous posters identify themselves with a nom de plume at the beginning or end of each post to avoid doubt or confusion. I have posted with my real name but sometimes post as Cowdenbeath aye.
ReplyDeleteGood luck with that John, I've been trying to persuade people for ages. Even explaining that you don't need a google or blogger account, just 'sign' off with a username at the end of your comments. You can see how effective I've been.
DeleteSouthside Ian here - I’ll try and keep to this from now on. Sensible suggestion
DeleteThanks Felix and Ian. Hopefully others will do it and maybe make life easier for us all including Mr Kelly.
DeleteHere's an idea (hint, hint😉). If James himself were to suggest in his next article
Deletethat people sign their comments with a username, maybe more people would take notice.
This is all unrealistic and utterly bonkers. Don’t get sucked in by outlier polls. They happen, for good statistical reasons, and are a healthy antidote against the tendency of polls to artificially clump together/ crowd. The reality surely is that the Party is on course for far, far fewer than 41 seats and we all need to wake up to that fact and act accordingly - what corrective action must be taken? Not jump into a bubble bath of reassuring false optimism and dive head first to single figures WM representation..
ReplyDeleteFair enough suggestion above.
ReplyDeleteI’ll give myself a nom de plume then: Southside Ian.
My comment above has the word “bonkers” in the first line. That word is not meant to describe my post, but readers may disagree ;-)
It's a pity that the party of independence (aye right) didn't make it a Hate Crime offence for Britnats to pose as independence supporters. I mean do turkeys vote for Xmas. Only joking. Way a minute are jokes still allowed? Will jokes still be allowed tomorrow morning? Will life be worth living tomorrow? Will tomorrow be the day free speech died in Scotland? Will future generations write songs about this day - you know like Don McLean's American Pie - instead of the day the music died it will be the day free speech died. A scary start to the week. I mean some numpty said I should be worried - wow - scary stuff - totally spoils the bank holiday.
ReplyDeleteIIS, If you are still about tomorrow proves we are a tolerant society!
ReplyDeleteH
I’m not abstaining. Independence, first and foremost
H - were you in a pop band and are gay - what's their name again - Bucks Fizz -hmmm - I know it's Steps.
DeleteTragedy - a tragedy what's happened to the SNP. 5 6 7 8 your driving me crazy get in line 5 6 7 8 trolls.
Well H I have survived 18 mins now in this new dark SNP world. It's all very confusing. I mean many many people say Scotland is one of the most welcoming and tolerant countries in the world. Yet others say we are a Hate filled bunch of racist intolerant bigots who need a new law to make us better people. H you say we are a tolerant society so why do we need this new law? H for help.
DeletePoor Ian Funcan Smith has had one shandy too many, I fear.
DeleteWell James you were write about Campbell and his WOS site. He is not taking it down. It is still there and he has published his legal advice (not everybody is like John REDACTOR MAN Swinney) in a very long post. Didn't read it all but fast forwarded to the end where I found myself agreeing with his last paragraph. Part of which said:-
ReplyDelete" The Act remains a grotesque, illiberal, poorly-drafted stain on Scottish public life which will create more hatred than it ever solves."
Ifs: the act is intended to combat racism, inlamophobia, anti LGBTQ+ speech etc. It can only be right to combat these things that are all too common in Scotland.
DeleteAnd yet IFS you haven’t been arrested yet for your rants. Sorry Mr Angry but your brand of intolerance will not enhance Independence. Of course your main thread on this blog sugest you would prefer anyone to win other than the SNP.
DeleteIn that you share the britnats view of their world.
H
Another snowflake that's frightened to leave the hoose in case his feelings get hurt by hearing a bad word! What a nation of wimps we've become!
DeleteH at 9.15am says " you would prefer anyone to win other than the SNP". H stop your lies about me. I have never said I wanted any Britnat party to win any election. I have also never said anyone should vote for a Britnat party. All these people who claim to know me but don't. I have said previously I would vote Alba. More recently I said I would vote ISP. I ain't voting SNP as it has ditched independence.
DeleteH or whoever you are I never said I expected to be arrested. It was another anonymous numpty who said I should be scared - wisnae you was it before you worked out you could put H at the bottom of your posts.
If you are not angry about the SNP betrayal of Scottish independence then you must be a sleeping numpty or a Britnat. What are you? Is it H for Hamish100. Or are you really the non singer in Steps?
So H for help I ask you to help me understand and what do you do. You manage to misrepresent me twice in your very short post. So stop telling lies about me.
So let's get this straight H at 11.24pm says " we are a tolerant society" but anon at 8.10am says " racism, inlamaphobia, anti LGBTQ+ speech.............are all too common in Scotland" . Can you two sort this out for me - who is right?
DeleteIf we're busy making up phobias like transphobia and islamophobia, can I report the SNP for independencephobia?
DeleteIfS: there has been a rising tide of hatred in Scotland towards people with protected characteristics such as LGBTQ+. This act gets the balance right.
DeleteEvidence? Or just more bs from the rainbow warriors?
DeleteRising tide of hatred: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-scotland-68708583
DeleteAnon at 5.01pm - you do realise tides come in and go out. Not the best choice.
DeleteAnon at 1.13pm are you one of the SNP numpties who said - The Named Person Family law was fine - the DRS was fine - the Self ID law was fine. Not a good track record is it. Or were you one of the SNP numpties who insisted the SNP membership numbers were going up instead of massively falling.
Yousaf on the news at lunchtime and he uses the getting the balance right phrase and of course the riding tide of hatred phrase. Can these anon posters not even use their own words.
DeleteAnon 5:01, According to the BBC! Oh well that proves it! We all know how trustworthy they are when it comes to independence! Really some of you lot are so wimpy you shouldn't be outside without an adult to protect you from all the naughty words you might hear.
DeleteIt was the First Minister who said there is and has been a rising tide of hate in Scotland hence the need for the law. Thus is not something any LGBTQ+ person would need evidence for.
DeleteAs James correctly predicted, it's after midnight and Wings is still very much online. Who'd have thunk it, eh? A showman without substance.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking forward to Mutt Burgess dropping in.
ReplyDeleteIf this poll is accurate it’s very positive for the SNP. I can see some, including James Kelly, are a bit sceptical, but polls have been improving of late, for both Humza Yousaf and the SNP. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues in future polls.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I have a feeling that some of the people threatening to shun the SNP are just blowing off hot air, and when it comes to the crunch at the GE will in fact vote SNP. Maybe not all but am sure some will.
I do understand peoples frustrations with the party, but, as I said yesterday, things are on the up, and suspect the GE won’t turn out nearly as bad as the doom mongers are predicting.
Well argued. I agree. The poll is positive for the SNP. Whilst James Kelly is sceptical the polls speak for themselves.
DeleteI agree with Anon...I mean KC...I mean Jeff...I mean myself😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
DeleteAnon at 9.10am - if you want to spin a loss of 7 SNP MPs as being positive for the SNP fine it disnae bother me in the least. One thing that cannae be spun is that the SNP will do nothing about independence just like they have done after all the other elections they have won. SNP might win the election in Scotland but Westminster will be happy.
DeleteIfS: too negative. A loss of 7 seats would be very much lower than the losses one would expect given that the 2019 election was abnormal.
DeleteAnon at 11.06am - the only thing abnormal is you.
DeleteAnon: too positive.
DeleteI agree that Anon is being too positive.
DeleteDeffo.
DeleteMore of this abnormal election in 2019 drivel. Given that you keep parroting this rubbish but never justify it when asked, I think you're the one who's abnormal. Get a new slogan ffs!
DeleteYou think 2019 was a normal election?
DeleteI've asked you repeatedly to tell us what was abnormal and got nothing in reply but a repeat of this same stupid question. You are obviously a complete imbecile. No wonder you choose to post anonymously. I'll waste no further time on you.
DeleteLet us be respectful towards one another, Owen.
DeleteAnon at 9:32, are you for real? I thought this site was for serious debate.
DeleteChildish and pathetic!
It’s just his talking point. Don’t engage with him, he’s not here for that. Just to lay the astroturf.
DeleteI get that but it's just the mind-numbing repetitiveness that gets on my nerves. Any self-respecting troll would come up with something new occasionally. Anyway, I've tried to shame him into changing the record but that level of stupidity is a lost cause. I'll leave him to his own devices.
DeleteIt is understood that people become cross on Internet fora so the key is always not to respond or escalate but be polite ever.
DeleteSpammer gonna spam. Nothing personal, bro.
DeleteJeff @ 1:15, Are you for real? That's the question we're all asking. I don't think you are.🤥
DeleteAnon at 4:07, I am totally genuine, nobody is more desperate for independence than me. Of that I can assure you.
DeleteAnyway - agree that poll is positive for SNP.
DeleteAdd the Tory and Reform preferences and the total is well over 30%. Given that the election will not come until the end of January, 2025, there is time for the Tories to ditch Sunak and replace him with someone more electorally popular (Farage? Johnson?). This will, probably, push Starmer further right. As a GE approaches, there is a tendency for people to revert to their former voting pattern. So, Tory/Reform could reach 40%. As Labour becomes less distinguishable from the Tories, some people will decide to vote for the 'real thing' and others, especially younger voters and higher educated city dwellers will shift to Greens, SNP, PC. Labour will drift down to 35/40%. Given the gerrymandered constituency redrawing, and the bias of FPTP, we get a Tory majority at Westminster, almost entirely in England but with some gains in Wales. SNP get the majority of seats in Scotland. In Northern Ireland, the unionists slip one or two seats, but decide to form a pact with the Tories to renegotiate the Brexit deal.
ReplyDeleteI note the date you wrote that wild and nutty fantasy, anon. Starmer is a shoe in. In fact, he’s already sat down on the couch with his feet up on the coffee table.
DeleteAstounding is an improvement on staggering. But only slightly.
ReplyDeleteIronically had SNP polling could get people out to stop a total whitewash. Ie scare people into voting SNP for fear of giving Scottish Labour a smug face
ReplyDeleteWould you agree that Humza deserves credit for the good polling for the SNP?
DeleteYes - agreed.
Delete