Before we start this blogpost, a reminder that the Scot Goes Pop opinion poll fundraiser urgently needs a boost - let's not leave it in limbo for months. It's important that not all Scottish opinion polling is commissioned by anti-independence clients - we need to make sure that occasionally questions are asked that Yes supporters want asked. The fundraiser page is HERE and details of how to donate directly by Paypal can be found at the bottom of this post.
For the uninitiated, part of the significance of this new poll being an MRP seats projection poll, rather than a conventional YouGov poll, is that YouGov's MRP projection was far more accurate in 2017 than its conventional polling - it correctly pointed to a hung parliament rather than a Tory majority. It also picked up on the likelihood of substantial SNP losses in that election but underestimated their scale, which means that today's projection that the SNP will lose their seats majority in Scotland should be taken as more than just a vague warning.
YouGov seats projection:
Labour 385 (+183)
Conservatives 169 (-196)
Liberal Democrats 48 (+37)
SNP 25 (-23)
In spite of suffering heavy losses to Labour, the SNP would gain Alister Jack's seat from the Tories, and they would also remove Tory representation in the Moray area .Admittedly that's technically counted as a notional SNP hold due to boundary changes, but in the real world it would leave the Scottish Tories two seats down. (West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine, incidentally, would be an SNP gain, but that's offset by a new neighbouring Tory seat on the revised boundaries.) So as yesterday's blogpost suggested, the SNP certainly aren't wasting their time in targetting tactical votes from Labour supporters in the six Tory-held seats.
The Western Isles is already projected as a Labour gain, which demonstrates that the absolute priority must be that an agreement is reached to allow Angus MacNeil, the only pro-indy candidate with a chance of winning the constituency, a free run without an SNP challenger splitting the vote. Similarly, the two Alba-held seats are forecast as Labour gains, and it would help enormously if there was no split pro-indy vote in those seats.
It's important to stress that an MRP poll is the exact same as a conventional poll in one key respect - it's a snapshot not a prediction. It doesn't take into account the effect of the official campaign period which will be swamped by London-based media coverage of the Labour v Tory horserace, and will thus be the real period of danger for the SNP. My fear is that an absurdly complacent SNP leadership could look at these numbers and think "you know what, we can live with 25, we'd still be major players", not realising that a steady-as-she-goes approach could be a recipe for something close to a total wipeout. I firmly believe that in a worst case scenario, the SNP could lose all but a couple of their seats, and that the worst case scenario is also a lot more probable than most people believe.
Generally speaking, you'd think that a projection showing that a Tory government is on course for a heavy defeat to Labour would lead to calls for the Tories to move into the centre ground where elections are usually won. Rather comically, though, the opposite is happening in this case because the poll was commissioned by Tory donors with an anti-Sunak agenda, and they've clearly passed the results to the Telegraph on condition that they can make their case that Sunak either needs to go or move to a hard-right policy agenda. OK, they can argue that such a course of action might win crucial votes back from Reform UK, or even dissuade Reform UK from putting up candidates in key seats - but the danger is throwing the baby out with the bathwater and losing more moderate voters to Labour and the Lib Dems in the process.
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jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
At least it's not in total wipe out territory as some doomsters had predicted. Not sure SNP would let Alba through with pacts as this would give Alba a boost that could be harmful to SNP longer term in terms of getting seat back to SNP.
ReplyDeleteI can only repeat what I said in the blogpost: "My fear is that an absurdly complacent SNP leadership could look at these numbers and think 'you know what, we can live with 25, we'd still be major players', not realising that a steady-as-she-goes approach could be a recipe for something close to a total wipeout."
DeleteAnonymous at 10.25am " longer term" - so no independence in the longer term. A typical poster whose only concern is seats for the SNP with no interest in independence.
Deletewith Indy sitting at a steady 50% you would have thought if the SNP are to lose 25 seats, then Alba would be best placed to pick them up, but here you are an Albaman moaning away for all your worth, and asking for money from SNP supporters, lol, take a hike.
DeletePlease Release Me - full marks for not being anonymous. As I am not a member of Alba and I have never asked any SNP supporters for money I guess you are referring to the site host but I will address your post anyway. Alba will not pick up the votes they should because Sturgeon and her gang trashed Salmond's reputation. Lying in courts, hiding papers, redacting documents and generally being a bunch of criminal Britnats. Hopefully justice will one day catch up with them. I am all for free speech but in this instance I would say James Kelly should delete your post and it will be you doing the hiking.
DeletePlease release me makes a good point. Why are Alba not attracting the disillusioned Indy supporters who are apparently deserting the SNP?
DeleteAnonymous at 4.57pm - are you a bot or cannae read. See answer above.
DeleteIndependence for Scotland I note your opinion as to why people won’t vote Alba but not sure to many would agree wi you
DeleteAnonymous at 5.28pm - I’m glad you have noted my opinion. Still waiting to note your opinion. FGS tell us what you think then or is it some sort of SNP secret. Is it the name puts people off? Don't be shy - go on tell us. Now remember don't confuse opinion with fact. Perhaps James Kelly can ask the question in his next poll.
DeleteI get James point that such an outcome could lead to complacency within the SNP, but it nevertheless would be far better than the near wipeout scenario that some predict.
ReplyDelete25 seats would hopefully turn out to be a low point which could be built on in the coming years. A new leader of the SNP combined with Labour turning out to be not much better than the Tories, could drive up support for the SNP and give the independence cause a significant boost.
I'm not sure you are taking my point. The 25 number is not especially relevant because it's a snapshot not a prediction. If the SNP don't make radical changes *before* the election, it's likely that the worst is yet to come.
DeleteI take it one of your “radical changes” is replacing Yousaf before the GE. Personally I don’t see any realistic chance of that happening.
DeleteBest to ask rather than assume. Ideally Yousaf would go, but I've repeatedly said that's unlikely and more realistic would be a unity Cabinet featuring Kate Forbes in a senior position, and a change of election strategy to galvanise the pro-indy vote.
DeleteYousaf’s faction—“Team Nicola” of course—detests Kate Forbes. The only way she’s coming back into cabinet is with a change of leader, potentially herself.
DeleteSimilarly: the Sturgeonites would rather saw off their own leg than cooperate with Alba.
Of course they detest her. That's not really the point when there's an election to be won or lost. Half the Tory cabinet loathe the other half.
DeleteWhere I disagree here is the idea SNP should do a pact with Alba. SNP simply cannot endorse that party as it would be too damaging to the integrity of the SNP and would not be appreciated by SNP supporters in those constituencies.
DeleteI wonder what got Kate in the bad books when her star was once so ascendant. When she was first made finance minister in a pinch, everyone was impressed with her and talk was she was Nicola’s clear, handpicked successor. Fast forward to Sturgeon’s resignation, and Kate was continuity SNP public enemy number one. What did she do?
DeleteHer religious beliefs were anathema to the woke brigade. Didn't stop Humza of course but then he just parks them when they're inconvenient and picks them up again when it suits him.
DeleteYet Souter is now back in favour with the SNP and/or the other way round with funds coming the SNP's way. Did some poster above say the SNP wouldn't welcome Alba as the SNP have integrity 😂😂😂😂😂😂. So is Souter ok but Forbes and Alba aren't. Oh that's right Souter has a lot of money and the SNP need money now that Murrell isn't giving them loans every so often. Felix is right about Yousaf parking his religious beliefs as and when necessary.
DeleteA party cannae have integrity when it's leadership plot to send an innocent man to jail.
2015's high water mark is part of the problem. It was achieved when unionist voters weren't really expecting such a clean sweep, when their tactical voting campaigns hadn't even gotten going and even because pro-union voters felt it was safe to vote for the SNP.
ReplyDeleteMy bold strategy would be to abandon Westminster elections. The new message is that they mean nothing to Scotland. Whether we turn out in large or small proportions, we're ultimately outvoted. In 2010, all we managed was to transform a small Tory majority into a coalition which destroyed the Lib Dems. In 2017, we forced what would have otherwise been a small Tory majority into a deal with the DUP. So why bother? The writing has been on the wall since the 56(58 in some cases!) failed to pass any of their amendments during the Scotland Act 2016's passage.
It's an opportunistic time for Scotland's Yes voters to collapse our turnout at Westminster elections. If we then maintain our current turnout or improve it at Holyrood 2026, that finishes off the union's last vestige of legitimacy. Obviously, Yes parties still have to win a majority of seats along with the popular vote in 2026.
Of course, nobody's going to back down all the way. Not the SNP, not Alba, not the Scottish Greens and not Angus MacNeil.
Abstentionism requires running for election with a promise to refuse to serve in that parliament. Sinn Fein is still very much on the ballot on Westminster elections in Northern Ireland. They still do constituency work, as well, from their London offices.
DeleteVoters abstain to protest against the choices available to us on the ballot. Parties abstain their seats to protest against the legitimacy of the parliament itself.
Many of our SNP MP's are highly regarded in the House and make valuable contributions behind the scenes in committee work and other important work in terms of representation of the views of constituents.
DeleteBefore devolution, Westminster was the only game in town. Of course all the SNP greats like Salmond, Winnie and Margo ran and represented Scotland there.
DeleteBut after 1999? What has the SNP’s Westminster group achieved since then? And at what cost for the now London addicted party?
At every UK GE Westminster/England/the English win. A numpty above seems to seriously think a party of independence should make a valuable contribution to the Westminster system. The system that tells the people of Scotland that they live in a colony and this numpty says they should assist it.
DeleteThey get extra money being on these committees. In 1707 the English bribed a lot of Scottish parliamentarians. They still do it today but in a much more subtle way.
I get that some have become disillusioned with the SNP, but surely all supporters of independence have to get behind the party.
ReplyDeleteHopefully there will be radical change within the party(sooner rather than later) and all Indy supporters can get 100% behind the SNP and we can build on a not so disastrous GE result, and really get the case for independence out and increase support so its consistently above 50%. This can be done, but we need total unity going forward and to fight as one movement.
I agree with much of what you say, however I think it’s to late to avert disaster at the GE. Action should have been taken before now
DeleteAnonymous at 4.09pm says:- " I get that some...." SOME - SOME understatement. How many members have the SNP lost and Murrell tried to cover it up. WGD numpties and SNP politicians kept lying about it and SOME, there's that word again, even said the membership numbers were increasing and it was only Unionists querying what was going on. SOME people do not like to be continuously lied to and told if you complain you are a Unionist. Most Alba members are probably ex SNP but SOME kept saying everything is ok in the SNP.
DeleteIndependence has already been consistently above 50% for a sustained period. Where were you? - sleeping like Rip Van Winkle.
It has been above 50% consistently yes. When N Sturgeon was leader!
DeleteWe need to get it up to that level again.
DeleteSo Humza can have his turn to bottle it just like his predecessor?
DeleteI don’t just want Indy leads. I want Indy!
You have to laugh 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣at these numpties. When the polls are good Sturgeon is the messiah but when bad it is somebody else's fault. Trouble is the messiah did SFA but over promise and under deliver except when it came to certain horrendous policies - no wait - Jack binned one of them and the public outcry binned the rest. Sturgeon the Betrayer and a complete disaster kept in place for nearly nine years by numpties.
DeleteIf I read correctly, this is already adjusted to the new boundaries and 57 total seats. So It would be just 4 seats short from the majority of seats
ReplyDeleteIndeed, hardly a disaster. Plus entirely possible it could change for the better between now and the GE.
Delete“But we just lost a cartload of seats. What a victory.. Independence now!”
DeleteIt certainly wouldn’t be a victory, but hardly the disaster some doom mongers are predicting.
DeleteSomeone was asking why Alba aren't picking up the disaffected SNP voters so I'll have a try at answering that. First the disaffected have gone back to Labour. Second as IFS said Salmond (although cleared in the courts has still got a tarnished reputation) hopefullY that soon be 'polished' once the truth comes out in the court case later this year. It's easy to knock ALBA, and they might not make a breakthrough in the end but the real problem is not with them, the real problem is why are the SNP losing votes and members? And why are they going to labour? I think those are easy answers - they feel that the SNP have given up on the drive for independence. Some of the SNP might still be up for it like Cherry but a lot of the rest are fakers. There's more drive in them for other policies, policies that in general the public don't like. It's also a party that has an air of dishonesty about it now whereas it used to be seen in a favourable light. Sad but true.
ReplyDeleteVery true. People don’t take kindly to being played.
DeleteThese comments are wide of the mark. It's actually very hard for a party to remain high in the polls and SNP are still (more or less) Scotlands most popular political party.
DeleteAnon at 7:53, I agree, people need to give Yousaf and the SNP a break. Let’s see where we are after the GE. I totally get it that a lot are disillusioned but all this infighting amongst independence supporters dosen’t get us anywhere.
DeleteAbsolutely right Anon 20.00.
DeleteWT, did you know you were 'outed' as a unionist a few blogs back by someone from the Follow Follow Raynjurz website?😁
DeleteYour name will also go on 'ze list' along with me, IFS and Yestoindyref2 as a unionist troll. Interestingly, it seems it's only those who are daft enough to identify themselves that are unionists so we're easy to spot.
Indy voters have gone back to Labour, really? at a time when they've never been more right wing, christ they're saying there not here to speak for the unemployed or other less well off folks, aye that'll attract a lot of Scottish voters a'right.
DeletePersonally I think the idea that Indy supporters are switching to Labour is nonsense.
DeleteI don't know how you'd even begin to justify that comment, it's almost arithmetically impossible for Labour to have caught up with the SNP without gaining independence supporting voters.
Delete