Since I last blogged, I've written an article for The National's website (it wasn't in the print edition as far as I know) about the Focaldata poll which suggested the SNP are on course to be routed by Labour at the general election. You can read the article HERE, but basically my two main points were that the poll is directly contradicted by an Ipsos poll conducted at around the same time showing the SNP with a decent lead, and that the SNP cannot bet the house on Ipsos being right and other firms being wrong. My gut feeling for some time has been that the SNP are heading for defeat unless they change course.
However, if Rishi Sunak can be taken at his word, it's likely that the general election is still nine or ten months away, which is enough time to make strategic decisions that could change the political weather. What might work and what wouldn't?
Target Keir Starmer personally and relentlessly. I think this one should be a no-brainer that all independence supporters can agree on. Starmer's personal ratings in Scotland are moderately good, which is wholly undeserved given his extraordinary record of deceit, betrayal and shameless U-turns which could be ruthlessly exposed by an advertising campaign.
Replace Humza Yousaf with Kate Forbes. This is obviously highly unlikely to happen prior to the general election but I do have to raise the prospect because I firmly believe it would be effective. Nicola Sturgeon was, at least from the London media's point of view, the surprise star of the 2015 leadership debates, and my sense is that Forbes possesses a similar X Factor that could be transformative during the campaign.
Replace the Team Humza factional rule with a unity SNP Government. This would have a more limited effect than a change of leader but it's also more realistic which is why I keep suggesting it. The SNP would look a more attractive proposition with Forbes back as Finance Secretary and possibly as Deputy First Minister, and with some of the more talented people who have been frozen out back in the Cabinet. Probably all sides would have to swallow some pride to make this happen - Forbes would be unlikely to get her way about the ejection of Greens from government, for example.
Be really specific about the concessions you'd be looking for from a Labour government. Alyn Smith's idea that the SNP can win a general election on the nebulous platform of "making Scotland's voice heard" or "maximising influence over the UK" seems pretty hopeless to me, but if it's to have any chance at all of working, wedge issues would have to be identified so that voters would feel they'd get something specific by voting SNP that they wouldn't get by voting Labour. This of course carries the danger that Labour would retort that if the SNP don't get their way on specific issues they might not support a Labour government (thus justifying a false charge that the SNP would "prop up the Tories") but I think that's a risk that would have to be taken.
Pro-independence unity. As an Alba member I accept the party's democratic decision to stand against the SNP in a dozen-odd seats, but I do doubt the wisdom of it, just as I doubt the wisdom even more of the SNP putting up a candidate against Angus MacNeil which could hand the Western Isles seat to Labour for potentially decades. The Greens standing more candidates than before against their own coalition partners is also deeply unhelpful. We now have a good few months for pride to be swallowed and sensible compromises to be reached, so for heaven's sake let's do that, and not regret our failure to see the bigger picture for years to come.
Bang on about a referendum being denied by Westminster. Forget it, Humza. It's like trying to sell Easter eggs at Halloween. You have the opportunity to make this election a direct vote on independence, but if you spurn that opportunity, as you seem hellbent on doing, soft Yes supporters will not even be thinking about independence when they visit the polling stations. You'll have to win this election the hard way, without the pro-indy vote being galvanised, and whether that's even possible I don't know. But that's the task you've set for yourself, whether you realise it or not.
* * *
I am currently fundraising in the hope of running a new Scot Goes Pop opinion poll in the near future - details can be found HERE, and the fundraiser page itself is HERE.
As a long standing SNP activist and party loyalist I feel that there has to be a coming together amongst the entire independence movement - and by that I mean the SNP and Alba. Wise council has to prevail on both sides and I cannot understand why that message cannot be understood on the parts of the leadership of both parties. We get nowhere by carping at one another. I know that some wounds are deep and that there are more than a few grudges borne on both sides, but if the people concerned genuinely want to progress the cause of independence they are going to have to set their grievances with one another aside, keep their egos under control and focus on the bigger picture.
ReplyDelete" and I cannot understand why " - perhaps it because the leadership of the SNP tried to send Salmond to jail for a long time or potentially for the rest of his life by falsifying accusations. Even then Salmond has for the last few years held out the olive branch but the horrible creatures in the SNP continue with their slurs on his character. The SNP has consistently rejected Salmond's olive branch. The SNP have not focussed on the big picture since Salmond resigned in 2014. The only picture they have been focussing on in recent years is bank balances.
DeleteIt's stuff like this from 'Independence for Scotland' that I was referring to. The who's right and who's wrong feuding benefits no-one inside our movement. The unionist parties are sitting back and peeing themselves laughing at all of us while this goes on. They are the beneficiaries. Bridges need to be mended and it's time we started to try to mend them.
DeleteAnonymous 8.37pm - Salmond produced enough olive branches to build a new bridge across the Firth. You seem to just ignore this fact. I wonder why?
DeleteWE cant start to try and mend this, the Party, the SNP need to mend this, no-one else can do it for them, untill the snp sorts out its crimiinal element and is seen to do it, nothing will change.
DeleteI certainly agree there needs to be Pro-Independence unity.
ReplyDeletePro independence parties contesting the same seats makes no sense at all, and in my view has the potential to be very damaging, especially if Alba and the Greens stand a lot of candidates.
James, my thoughts on your article.
ReplyDeleteTarget Keir Starmer - an easy one for the SNP to do and is likely to happen. The question must surely be how competetent will the SNP be at doing this.
Replace Yousaf with Forbes - I agree that it is highly unlikely as she is not part of Sturgeon's gang. Forbes being FM may get the SNP more votes in elections but based on her lukewarm attitude to independence in the leadership hustings I don't see independence happening under her leadership any time soon ( soon being in the next decade) if ever at all.
Replace Team Humza with a unity SNP government - still unlikely as Sturgeon's gang need to keep total control. Very unlikely to make any diffference to independence but may get a few more votes at elections.
Be really specific about concessions from a Labour government - if it's asking for GRR to be signed off then votes will decrease. If it's asking for a sec 30 referendum then votes will increase but British Labour will renege on any agreement ( ref to The Vow and The Smith Commission). You cannae trust the Britnats so this whole approach is pointless in my opinion.
Pro independence unity - no chance of the SNP seeing the big picture. Sturgeon's gang need to maintain absolute control no matter what. If it did happen votes would increase.
Bang on about a referendum being denied by Westminster. - SNP politicians are gold standard moaners and whiners about the bad Westminster while doing absolutely nothing about changing things. So this is exactly what they will do. So after years of punting all manner of plans/approaches etc etc about how to get independence they will have nothing to offer but moaning and whining and punting Sturgeon's old Stronger for Scotland crap. It is continuity Sturgeon after all from Yousaf.
In summary, I see nothing advancing the cause of Scottish independence coming from the SNP and therefore I will be looking out for certain SNP MPs getting the boot just like I used to look forward to certain Tory MPs getting the boot. The SNP are Betrayers. The Tories are shits but they don't pretend to be otherwise unlike the SNP MPs.
You actually sound like a unionist plant.
DeleteIndependence for Scotland is coming across more and more as a bit of a defeatist.
DeleteThis sort of attitude isn’t going to get us independence anytime soon.
Only in the self unaware extremist heidbanger perspective. If you read his/her posts on this blog consistently (and there’s plenty of them) you’ll see he/she is consistent and genuinely believes what they write - it just looks like a clumsy unionist plant at times.
DeleteAnonymous at 9.21pm - yawn yawn - you sound like a plank but not a plant.
DeleteTartanTam - what sort of attitude do you recommend? - be a blind nicophant like yourself.
Anonymous 10.21pm - the trouble with all these numpties is they never address the issues and they usually just drag out the old tired you are a Unionist tag - except for TartanTam who has come up with the new defeatist tag. Is TartanTam the WGD numpty who used to post as TamtheBam? Is "just looks like a clumsy Unionist plant at times" intended to be supportive😂😂😂😂?
Some of the anonymous posters have obviously been watching Traitors on the telly. Plenty in the SNP whether you like it or not the difference being it is not a game but the future of Scotland at stake and Sturgeon and her gang are guilty.
Independence for Scotland is a Tory tracked and banned by Stuart Campbell years ago
DeleteStick to your guns IFS. The accusations of being a 'unionist plant' are tired old tropes straight out of the Nicola cult playbook. None of these people want to face the awful truth of how Sturgeon conned them for years.
DeleteFelix
I bet you weren’t slagging Sturgeon off when she was leading us through Covid and her and the SNPs ratings were high, and support for independence was consistently above 50%!
DeleteWhere are we now in comparison?
Regarding the poster who said in defence of 'Independence for Scotland' that what he or she says, "just looks like a clumsy unionist plant at times" - I'd refer to the old adage that if something 'looks like a duck and quacks like a duck' then it's not too difficult to draw the obvious conclusion as to what it actually is!
DeleteAnonymous 10.12 am says " I bet you weren't slagging off Sturgeon ........." You clearly have not been reading Scot Goes Pop for very long. I have been telling the truth about Sturgeon's gang for many years - before Covid. So you are a numpty who disnae know what he is talking about. Sturgeon's surrender speech in Jan 2020 should have provided the evidence for any independence supporter that she was a phoney. A fraud. A charlatan. What Sturgeon and her gang did to Salmond from late 2017 onwards also provided copious evidence that she is a nasty piece of work.
DeleteThe anonymous numpty also asks:- Where are we now in comparison?" We are where Sturgeon's gang have taken us.
Anon at 10:12am - Aye, Independence for Scotland was probably a Sturgeon worshipper back in 2020.
DeleteWhat we need now is unity within the Yes movement. A United front from the pro independence parties. The only ones benefiting from this constant bickering and infighting are the unionists, who must be laughing behind our backs.
Believe me I was! This myth about her as the Queen of Covid is farcical. She did exactly the same as Bozo except tinker with the dates of lockdowns by a day or two and she stuffed covid sufferers into care homes spreading the disease further. You are a typical cultist who has her on a marble plinth😂😂😂
DeleteTartanTam - says I was a Sturgeon worshipper in 2020 - wrong - but other numpties say I am a Tory. Pity they cannae identify the Tories right under their noses in their own party.
DeleteAnonymous 1.09 pm - the old adage applies to you - lack of imagination - lack of original thought - lack of critical thinking and analysis - easily scammed - unable to change opinion when facts change - high level of cognitive dissonance - I draw the obvious conclusion you are a WGD/ SNP numpty .
Anonymous 3.52pm - Scotland simply benefitted because Covid infections were lower in Scotland relative to England (particularly London) at the time of the first lockdown. A simple fact that had nothing to do with any actions taken by Sturgeon. Sturgeon also regularly boasted that there was a four nations approach to Covid and indeed James posted in a number of articles her administration (Jason Leitch) went along initially with the dreadful, dangerous and moral free herd immunity approach. Scotland did better than England but it was a very low bar set by the obnoxious clown Boris Johnston.
I think there are a few exiles from the Dughoose here these days, IFS, given that the Big Dug seems to be in semi retiremen. 😁God help us all if Scottish Toilet Inspector decides to join them.
DeleteFelix, the toilet inspector has been very quiet recently on his travels around Scotland's loos. He has, however, introduced us to a brother who just happens to have a foreign partner who will fall foul of the new Tory income rules. It's quite incredible ( 🤣) how Irish/French/Scottish Skier always seems to find a family connection to the political issue of the day. As Skier is a proven liar it does not seem unreasonable to wonder if he makes it all up.
DeleteA brother? That's a new one but I guess it must be true as we know it's not like him to make things up!
DeleteI have to admire your dedication to ploughing through the Dughoose Diaries - people like Tatu3 make even our old pal Skier look rational.
If you're a progressive, Kate Forbes is not ideal.
ReplyDeleteLess ideal than a Brian Souter fan?
DeleteGood point James. Yousaf sooking up to Souter. Looks like money/donations is more important than values. Couldn't Yousaf get another loan from Murrell?
DeleteWhy doesn't he sell the motor home - or is it still in the polis compound rusting away?
Mark McGeoghegan in the Herald:
ReplyDelete"SNP can beat Scottish Labour in general election"
"The stall Mr Yousaf sets out this year will need to centre on what the SNP would want to see the UK Government do to support families through the cost-of-living crisis better, to grow the economy, and to deliver economic security. The SNP must persuade their voters that SNP MPs would be a voice for economic radicalism in the face of severe global economic headwinds and a force for change at Westminster. "
WTF? "what the SNP would want to see the UK Government do", "a force for change at Westminster"?
What ever happened to bye bye Westminster, bye bye rUK Government, Hello Independence, I think I'm going to Cheer?
If the SNP go down that route they're finished, defunct, kaput, no more, a dead parrot.
I am finding it very difficult to ignore what the evil criminals who are still in the SNP and running the party tried to do to Alex Salmond, I was raised to be basically honest, these politicians are not basically honest or decent, why should I give them my vote for independence to be used as a defacto vote on something like the GRR that I do not agree with, what kind of Scotland will THEY provide the basis for ?, if our independence had a high chance of being achieved with this vote then I may reconsider but at the moment it is a forlorn hope, and just an encouragement to the criminals to think they are untouchable and carry on as before.Sorry.
ReplyDeleteThe curious case of confused SNP/WGD anonymous numpties. Some say I was banned from Wings because I am a Tory. Others say I love Wings. Some say I am Wings. Are these anonymous posters the same confused numpty. Who knows because they are anonymous posters but they are clearly a numpty or numpties.
ReplyDeleteSo for those SNP numpties who think I love Wings I refer you to an article on Wings called Broken Mike so that you can learn something about your old SNP President Horsebox Mike Russell. He of the failed (phoney) 11 point independence plan. The article was written by Ellen Dalzell ( not Campbell ). Surprisingly she doesn't mention Russell's book in which he says the NHS needs to be privatised - people will get vouchers he says in his book. Now this is not something I have ever suggested or agree with but Tories like the idea. So you SNP numpties calling me a Tory you have had one right under your nose all this time as your President and that is why you are numpties and that is why we are still an English colony.
Lisa Cameron ain't the only one.
Mike Russell has served the SNP for many years and deserves a lot of respect.
DeleteAnonymous at 6.44pm. Why? Are you a Tory as well? Lisa Cameron is a Tory and served the SNP for many years does she also deserve a lot of respect.
DeleteRussell is a good guy. I'd not worry too much about his health policy comments since it's not something he advocates for politically. Lisa Cameron I would not know so much about. It wad a pity for the SNP she crossed the floor because I think SNP should be a broad church on social issues.
DeleteAnonymous 12.50pm - " Its not something he advocates for politically." So if Russell advocates for independence politically but disnae really want it is ok in your opinion. No wonder we are still an English colony.
DeleteSNP members chose a Tory devolutionalist ( Russell) over Craig Murray for their President. SNP members chose Yousaf who was reluctant to mention independence during the hustings over Regan who had independence as the core part of her hustings. No wonder we are still an English colony. No wonder Murray left the SNP. No wonder Regan left the SNP.
Does IFS ever have a good word to say about anybody, or are we all just numpties?
DeleteTartamTam - you are clearly a numpty nicophant because it is clear that I have have good words to say about Craig Murray and Ash Regan. Two people who actually want Scottish independence.
DeleteFWIW: May seems the likely date for the general election. English local elections are happening then, which will be a mass blood-letting according to all the polls. Sunak will be forced to face the music by his own side. Any remaining time in government from that point will be beyond useless: it’ll be unbearable. Better to force some semblance of party unity by holding the general election on the same day and forcing the vote.
ReplyDeletePity. They could have held on till January according to the law, and prayed for proles to break their hips on the way to the polls. You have to feel for Rishi sometimes, haven’t you?
My pick for next Tory leader is Bozza, btw. Him and Tumpy are putting the band back together.
/Cassandra out
If Boris and Trump can make comebacks, who knows, maybe Nicola as well.
DeleteWhen thinking about New Year resolutions I considered ignoring the crap posted on the charlatan site WGD. Then I read this shite from WGD poster Tatu3.
ReplyDeleteTatu3 says:- " Salmond is Labour through and through. He only got involved in SNP as he saw it as a way to power. The speed of indy14 happening took him by surprise, he didn't want independence, he just wanted it to look like he did, he'd have been more than happy as FM with a few more powers. In hindsight when you watch the old TV debates he wasn't trying hard enough, it was all show. He's still a showman. "
Now this WGD numpty is not challenged by any posters on WGD re this nonsense, and yes that includes the WGD numpty yesindyref2. Not only that Tatu3 also posts that he supports Israel's right to massacre Palestinians in great numbers. Israel is killing Palestinian children on a daily basis at such a speed that it is hard to keep up with the numbers but it is certainly more than 10k dead children so far and goodness knows how many have lost limbs, been orphaned and have been terrorised on a daily basis.
So there you have it - you can post on Kavanagh's site this sort of disgusting stuff but nae chance if you dare criticise the SNP or the great leader ( ha ha) Sturgeon. That is Kavanagh's idea of free speech.
Thanks for pointing out that post by Tatu3, I have now replied to it. Unlike you I don't spend all day reading WGD, and don't read every comment there either. Life is too short.
DeleteAdmiral - I always thought WGD numpties were slow - thanks for confirming you are slow readers as well. I guess you have to find some time to play with your toy battleships.
DeletePoor Cubby. Your lifetime of unrequited love has made you bitter.
DeleteAdmiral, good to see have now commented on tatu3's disgraceful slur on Salmond. You really need to stop telling porkies about me or I will have to henceforth bracket you with the other two WGD liars Dr Jim and the toilet inspector. You have been given fair warning - so no bleating about it afterwards - not a good look for a Royal Navy Admiral.
DeletePS did you get any new toy warships for your Xmas to play with in your bath. How about that aircraft carrier named after that person in the Netflix series the Crown. Does it come with any wee airplanes?
Don't cry.
Delete