Sensational Redfield & Wilton poll reveals that most voters in Scotland want an independence referendum WITHIN THE NEXT YEAR - piling massive pressure on Humza Yousaf to listen to SNP members and bring back the Sturgeon plan of a de facto referendum

The very familiar pattern has continued today of good polling news for independence being coupled with, at best, mixed polling news for Humza Yousaf and the SNP. For my money the most significant finding is from Redfield & Wilton, who show that there is now public support for an independence referendum within a remarkably tight timescale - by a margin of 42% to 40%, voters want a referendum within the next year.   There has also been a recovery in support for independence itself since last month - 

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Redfield & Wilton Strategies, 3rd-5th June 2023)

Yes 46% (+1)

No 54% (-1)

This, of course, does not mean that Ipsos were wrong recently to suggest that Yes were ahead by 53% to 47%, or that there has been a sudden movement back to No since then.  It's simply very different methodology producing very different results.  The main methodological differences are that Redfield & Wilton collect their data via online polling panel, rather than the telephone method used by Ipsos, and that Redfield & Wilton appear to weight their results by recalled 2014 referendum vote - an increasingly questionable practice such a long time after that vote took place.

Humza Yousaf's net personal rating has bounced about a bit in Redfield & Wilton polls, and this time he has one of his 'better' results, although he's still firmly in negative territory, and behind both Anas Sarwar and Keir Starmer.  The one glimmer of hope is that he's almost drawn level with Starmer, which is probably deserved - whatever my severe misgivings about Yousaf, by this stage I'd suggest just about every mainstream politician in the country deserves to be beating Starmer on personal ratings.

Net personal ratings of leaders:

Anas Sarwar (Labour): +4

Keir Starmer (Labour): -3

Humza Yousaf (SNP): -5

Rishi Sunak (Conservatives): -13

Douglas Ross (Conservatives): -22

The new poll is the second this year to suggest the SNP have lost their outright lead on the Holyrood list ballot, although their lead on the constituency ballot has increased by default due to a slippage in Labour's support.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 36% (-)

Labour 29% (-3)

Conservatives 21% (+3)

Liberal Democrats 8% (-)

Greens 2% (-)

Reform UK 2% (-)

Alba 1% (-)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 25% (-)

Labour 25% (-2)

Conservatives 19% (-)

Greens 14% (+1)

Liberal Democrats 10% (-)

Alba 3% (+1)

Reform UK 3% (+1)

Seats projection (with changes from 2021 election):  SNP 42 (-22), Labour 39 (+17), Conservatives 30 (-1), Greens 12 (+4), Liberal Democrats 6 (+2)

In explaining why he had decided to accept Humza Yousaf's offer of a senior job, Kevin Pringle yesterday put forward a 'glass half-full' interpretation of the polls, and suggested that the SNP were a party with a future as well as a past because they remained the natural party of government at devolved level, even under Humza Yousaf.  You'd have to say that looks a highly dubious claim on these numbers.  Yes, if the projection above was exactly right, the SNP would probably just about cling on as a minority government, but this is just one snapshot at one particular moment in time, and their position looks incredibly precarious.  And perhaps more to the point, SNP supporters want more than to be the natural party of government - they want a pro-independence majority at Holyrood (surely an absolute prerequisite if independence is to be won) to be the natural state of affairs too.  The majority of polls since Yousaf became leader, including this one, have suggested the pro-indy majority would be lost.

What's more, there's deeply troubling news today from a separate MRP projection conducted by Focaldata, which suggests for the first time that the SNP are on course to slip into second place behind Labour in terms of Scottish seats at Westminster.  Labour are projected to take 31 Scottish seats, with the SNP taking just 26.  That's the sort of outlook that ought to be leading sensible SNP parliamentarians to ponder how the self-indulgence of choosing as unpopular a leader as Yousaf can be reversed in time for the general election.

On a more positive note, the Redfield & Wilton poll finds huge public backing for the Deposit Return Scheme, and huge support for glass to be included in it.  The public also prefer the Scottish version of DRS to the proposed UK-wide version.  I suspect those numbers will stun a few people on the unionist side.  The Scottish Government have been mocked for choosing two unpromising dividing lines with London, ie. the GRR and DRS, and while there is ample polling evidence to suggest the mockery is fully justified in respect of the GRR, it's beginning to look as if the reverse may be true in respect of DRS, and that Yousaf may have stumbled onto slightly more fertile territory for a constitutional dispute.

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