There's an interview with Alex Salmond in the Telegraph in which he makes a fascinating observation that actually contradicts one of the key assumptions of many on the radical end of the independence movement. He suggests that Nicola Sturgeon's resignation couldn't have been pre-planned, because she was in the middle of a two-part strategy on independence (the Supreme Court referral followed by a de facto referendum) and he didn't know of any other leader who would willingly relinquish office with half of a two-part strategy unfinished. That suggests she would have stayed in office if it hadn't been for the police investigation, and would have seen the de facto referendum through, either in 2024 or 2026. I think that's probably right, notwithstanding my paranoia immediately after the resignation that it had been choreographed months in advance as the only conceivable way of getting the SNP out of a promise on a de facto referendum that had been practically signed in blood.
The police investigation wasn't self-initiated, of course, it only came about because of complaints from Yes supporters, presumably those who had seen questions about the SNP raised by Wings Over Scotland and one or two other websites. Now, I certainly don't criticise anyone for lodging a complaint and setting this process in motion - they did absolutely the right thing if their primary concern was doubts over the SNP's honesty and probity in its dealings with members. However, if anyone was motivated more by the Wings narrative that Nicola Sturgeon was the main blockage to independence, and saw a complaint mostly as a tactic to try to dislodge her, it's not hard to see how that's backfired. If she had remained in harness, we would probably have had the de facto referendum, and we would have had a chance of winning it with a popular SNP leader, and indeed with a popular SNP that had not yet been tarnished by the revelations of recent weeks. Instead, Nicola Sturgeon's natural allies, who clearly thought she had taken leave of her senses by actually trying to deliver independence, saw her sudden departure as Christmas come early, and gratefully seized the unexpected opportunity to put a stop to the SNP as a party actively trying to win independence for the first time since at least 1942. And for good measure, they've unnecessarily lumbered the SNP with a new leader who the public dislike and regard as incompetent, and who is thus much less likely to win any vote on independence, even if it did happen.
In short, the independence cause is now in a much worse position due to the police investigation having been triggered. Of course we're only in the foothills of this ongoing story, and Humza's unpopularity and close association with the Sturgeon leadership puts him in a very vulnerable place. So something constructive may yet come out of this chaos which will wipe the slate clean with a new leadership and repair a lot of the damage. But so far, it's a case of 'be careful what you wish for'.
* * *
There have been further signs over the last 48 hours that Labour's big lead over the Tories at GB-wide level is shrinking significantly. With at least a year to go until the likely general election date, that brings a hung parliament back into play - perhaps the joker in the pack that could get the SNP off the hook, although no-one should be relying on it, because it remains only an outside chance. Labour's lead in the new YouGov poll is fourteen points, which is the lowest YouGov have shown since mid-September, just before the Trussmageddon reached its peak. And Omnisis are showing the lead down to 17 points, the second-lowest in any Omnisis poll since September. On the other hand, Opinium have Labour rebounding slightly to an 18 point lead, but that's probably just sampling variation at play.
GB-wide YouGov poll (26th-27th April 2023):
GB-wide Omnisis poll (27th-28th April 2023):
I've been saying that for ages, especially to Bigot Under Bath
ReplyDeleteMike, you like other numpties kept saying she would deliver Indyref2 never mind Sturgeon faked it, ran away and left a mess and she was aided and abetted in her endeavours by people like you supporting her for years when we were taken out of the EU.
DeleteThe Bath person should concentrate on politicians in his own county, such as Jacob Rees-Mogg.
ReplyDeleteRegardless - we are where we are - fkd. The SNP won't get back up off the floor till there is a new successful leader who remembes why the SNP exists. I differ however from your view James - Mz S had no intention of pursuing indyref2 - I knew she would resign and leave the rudderless broken SNP to whomever followed her and she did.
ReplyDeleteThe fact that she would have stepped down eventually is a statement of the obvious, but I tend to think Alex Salmond is right - she had no intention of stepping down for a fair while and it was the police investigation that forced her hand.
DeleteI side with you and Eck on this one: she was pushed. But do remember just how intensely she was pushing GRR at the time of her sudden downfall. Burning so much political time and energy on a catastrophically contentious issue that has nothing whatsoever to do with Scottish independence does not strike me as the action of someone who was true to the plebiscite election strategy until her untimely end.
DeleteAnd don’t forget her hideously inept choice of who put Scotland’s case to the supposedly supreme court. That had us scratching our heads and turned out just as disastrous as we feared. If it really was an honest strategy to achieve independence, conducted in good faith, why did she make so many unforced errors? Why undermine your own bloody case? And why on earth choose another hill to die on like GRR?
Unlike Humza, Nicola wasn’t stupid. Whatever she was up to, she knew she was hurting Indy with these high risk and wholly political choices she made. She’s turned out deceitful, not inept.
James, if you remember, I said before Xmas she would resign about February, March - she looked done - all the micromanaging.
DeleteI've no doubt the British state knows fine well any illegal activity any SMP politicians have in their closet. If she'd had her defacto referendum then it would all have come out, plus more, at a time to destroy any pro independence vote, them the result used to reinforce a pro union narrative. You can't win a referendum when the British state has compromising material on you.
DeleteStevie, if you're suggesting she didn't resign because of the police investigation, I'd have to say that's a bit naive.
DeleteAnonymous at 8.34pm - " You can't win a referendum when the Britush State has compromising material on you. " Exactly.
DeleteI think the furore around GRR contributed.
ReplyDeletePerhaps a weariness engendered by the realisation that our media will always find a way to give the SNP, and the Yes movement, a good kicking - whether merited or not.
Pissing against the wind for so long must be trying.
Still don't believe Sturgeon was ever truly interested in independence. Staying in power, yes, fighting for independence, no. It was all lip service amongst the long grass. The SNP remains a party of home rule, not independence. Essentially a unionist party.
ReplyDeleteSturgeon was good speaker, a good communicator, and that hid a lot of her shortcomings. She ultimately delivered nothing but failure for Scotland and resigned when she realised there was zero chance of ever achieving independence.
ReplyDeleteI would think if the SNP managed to keep seat loses at the next GE to 15-20 that would be seen as a result, considering the current chaos.
Sturgeon had eight years to deliver independence. She was a catastrophic leader for the yes movement. Let's not forget Martin Keatings. She only offered a defacto because she had nowhere else to hide. The fact that the rest of the party doesn't want independence allows us to see the bundle of crap that is the SNP. She has governed a party with a clear vision and a buoyant, united movement into a demoralised factional mess. She transformed a party from being financially secure into existentially precarious - with an unused two year old campervan. The police are looking at burner phones, no auditors will touch them, they've had eight months to find some and now they are scrabbling. They failed to dual the A9. The failed (yet again) to take over the administration of benefits from the DWP, her administration has been a disaster. Sure Alec might be correct in his assessment - but really, do you really think she had no idea that the polis were about to pounce? Maybe she didn't, but I tell you we had eight years of being taken a lend of.
ReplyDeleteI certainly think she knew when she resigned - that's why I think she resigned. Whether she knew six months earlier is a different matter entirely.
DeleteI don't think it is a coincidence that the Chief Constable also resigned soon after Sturgeon. Tiredness was catching. Must have been a flu bug eh.
DeleteThanks for the reply James. My belief? My belief is this is rescuable but out with the SNP we can still create a united movement with a clear vision and a buoyant membership, The problems are no longer under the auspices of the SNP, they are the movement's problems - if we can get rid of the factionalism - and it won't be easy - we can right the ship.
DeleteA hung parliament will not lead to a favourable offer to SNP because both party’s that would be involved in the hung parliament would rather work together than lose control of Scotland that’s what bettertogether are all about
ReplyDeleteAlso: the Brit PM who “loses Scotland” will go down in history as the greatest loser of all time, “worse than Lord North who lost the American colonies!” as I remember we were assured at the BBC and Guardian in 2014. Here’s the one a quick web search can find: from America.
Deletehttps://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2014/09/08/pkg-amanpou-britain-scotland-america-cameron-lord-north-pkg.cnn
Granting a section 30 for indyref2 is a career ending event. Absolutely impossible for any PM to concede it now. It’s equivalent to shooting themselves and their government in the head. No upside whatsoever, only your own entrails.
No, Starmer’s said as much himself: if in minority government, he’d force the SNP to back him or the tories on a daily basis. Offer them nothing. They’ve long shown they like it.
The more interesting question is whether a hung parliament would lead to PR. Would the Lib Dems be able to extract that from Labour?
ReplyDeleteProportional representation is to the Lib Dems what Scottish independence is to the SNP.
DeleteThink about it: why did Clegg’s party settle for a (doomed) referendum which didn’t even put a PR system to the voters?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum
Aspirations don’t work like that. The best ones are always *just* out of reach. One Final Heave, chaps! We’re almost there!
They didn't even try to get PR out of the coalition deal in 2010.
DeleteTo be fair to Ash Regan and Kate Forbes, they have not put a foot wrong since the leadership election. If only the same could be said of Humza...
ReplyDeleteAgreed. Both Regan and Forbes have been an absolute credit to their party over the last month.
DeleteForbes was amazing today.
DeleteI'll vote for any party which refuses to send their elected representatives to the English Parliament.
ReplyDeleteSinn Fein ?
DeleteIf SF ran in Scotland, I’d gladly vote for them. Not exactly likely, given their core ideology of Irish cohesion in the face of British subjugation, but policy-wise they’re actually quite a good fit for Scotland.
DeleteWe need a new party of the committed Indy left. Left as in land and wealth, not labels and hissy fits.
Small observation; reference the Wiki page, best-fit curves, the Tory recovery from the “Truss trough” appears to be flatlining while the precipitous drop in support for Labour continues. The beneficiaries of the exodus from Labour are the Greens.
ReplyDeleteIn expelling Jeremy Corbyn, Sir Keir Starmer has taken a step too far. Traditional Labour folk are repulsed by New, New Labour (Neoliberal, Con Lite).
While the headline numbers may not be immediately concerning, to use the NuSNP v’s ALBA analogy, I suspect those who are defecting to the Greens comprise a significant proportion of the activist base.
One issue with the two part cunning strategy claim is that it ignores that the 'continuity' candidate was only one promising to kick indys nuts back in (definitively?) - a second issue in consequence being that Youssaf's claim about ex FM being proud to have voted for him (despite her own refusal to endorse any candidate) has not been denied and a third that might merit closer attention/ gratitude is that the police stepped in AFTER the pretendy membership/ hustings/ voting shenanigans and not before
ReplyDeleteThat Yougov poll is a problem for Labour not Just for the gap, but for the absolute valute, around 40% is what Corbyn did and so could be managed by the Tories
ReplyDeleteAs this site is concerned with polls, let’s discuss the unscientific Twitter poll from Good Morning Britain: Will you be pledging allegiance to King Charles?
ReplyDeleteWhen I responded there were 115,000 votes cast with 85.5% NO.
Perhaps Twitter users aren’t representative of British folk as a whole but that’s a hell of a public relations balls-up from the organisers of the Coronation psy-op.
We appear to be nearer a Republic than I had ever dared hope.
The problem isn’t that it’s a Twitter poll (which as you rightly imply is skewed to the left/youth) it’s that it’s a self selecting poll ie. those with a certain viewpoint are far and away more likely to vote in it.
DeleteCorrect. Polling is only scientific with a suitably balanced sample. If they’re self-selecting, it’s an anecdote not a poll.
DeleteThe problem is this from a Yougov poll published last Thursday:
Delete"44% of respondents [in Scotland] have a positive view of the royal family in general while 47% have a negative view and the remainder said they do not know."
That's 53% who don't have a negative view, and THAT if it translated into a NO vote, would lose us Independence. Without Independence there is no choice of monarchy v republic, so if all this hysteria around recently against the monarchy hacked off those undecideds and soft NOes we should be wooing, then the Unionists will be laughing laughing laughing for another 316 years (longer if Yousaf is still FM). And apart from being no Independence, there would also be no chance of a republic, even for those who want one.
Yesindyref2
Let's not start counting Don't Knows as if they somehow magically belong to one side. We're not unionists.
DeleteThe don't knows are still 9% of the electorate who might be unimpressed by the extremeness of some of the anti-royal comments - and associate that anti-monarchy with Indy, considering that the National has several anti-monarchy articles every day.
DeleteIf you look at the comments some people make about anyone who doesn't hate the royals, you can see for yourself how divisive it can be.
yesindyref2
Don't Knows are Don't Knows - why would we assume they're 'soft royalists'?
DeleteWe don't assume that at all.
DeleteWe can assume that quite a large number of them won't like something that's so divisive, that some insecure people feel the need to sneer at those who will be celebrating on Saturday. Read the comments in other places.
After all, for some people any excuse for a celebration is good enough. I used to know someone who knew a birthday of some leader or celebrity for every day of the year. He liked to go to the pub. Happy Birthday Rita Coolidge. Cheers!
yesindyref2
"We can assume that quite a large number of them won't like something that's so divisive"
DeleteWhy? They're Don't Knows.
The WGD numpty often called The Bathtub Admiral is back. He stormed off in a hissy fit saying he was done but is now back to remind us he just loves Charlie boy and will be waving his union flag and watching the coronation. Another phoney independence supporter. Will Indyref2yespleaseHumza be swearing the oath of loyalty? Another WGD Looney. The Royals are against Scottish independence but this Looney will be cheering him on. Worshipping Royals and loving weapons of war - a Britnat combination - that's you Bathtub.
ReplyDeleteWGD moron Dr Jim has this to say:- " The SNP should've done something. I keep reading that and hearing it and seeing it. Just for once I'd like some of these big mouthed Alba propagandists, just even one of them to tell us their solution...."
ReplyDeleteWell Jimbo I posted on many occasions that the SNP should have used the May 21 Holyrood election as a vote for independence. I posted this on SGP long before the Holyrood elecrption in May 21. In addition the SNP could have then subsequent to the London court decision in 2022 called another Holyrood election and used it as a de facto independence referendum. Again I also posted this on SGP.
So in summary, Jimbo you are a complete and utter moron who is blinded by your love for Sturgeon and posts pish.