Several people mentioned taking a Panelbase poll a few days ago, so I had a fair idea that one was coming either tonight or tomorrow, and I had various theories about what it might show. What's completely taken me by surprise, though, is that the SNP lead over Labour is proving a bit more resilient at Westminster than at Holyrood, which is where the emergency sirens are unmistakably wailing at full blast now that Humza Yousaf is leader.
Panelbase / Sunday Times poll, 28th-30th March 2023:
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 37% (-2)
Labour 33% (+2)
Conservatives 17% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-)
Greens 5% (-1)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 31% (-1)
Labour 27% (-)
Conservatives 20% (+3)
Greens 10% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-2)
Alba 5% (n/a)
Percentage changes are measured from the Panelbase poll in the first half of March that I commissioned myself for Scot Goes Pop.
Seats projection (changes measured from 2021 election): SNP 48 (-16), Labour 37 (+15), Conservatives 26 (-5), Greens 10 (+2), Liberal Democrats 6 (+2), Alba 2 (+2)
So a few things need to be explained here. It may seem strange that the seats projection is not quite as bad for the SNP as the projection from yesterday's Savanta poll, but that's because it's calculated using a different method - it looks like the Sunday Times have commissioned John Curtice to do a bespoke projection for this new poll. And although Alba are polling well enough to win list seats, the health warning is that Panelbase significantly overestimated Alba in the 2021 election - there were several results quite similar to this during the 2021 campaign. Normally a substantial error of that sort would be resolved after an election by means of past vote weighting - but that may not be the case here, because Panelbase seem to weight by recalled Westminster vote and not by recalled Holyrood vote.
The pro-independence majority at Holyrood would be lost on these numbers - the SNP, Greens and Alba in combination would have 60 seats, and the unionist parties combined would have 69.
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:
SNP 39% (-1)
Labour 31% (-2)
Conservatives 19% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-1)
Seats projection (with changes from 2019 election): SNP 34 (-14), Labour 14 (+13), Conservatives 6 (-), Liberal Democrats 5 (+1)
These results are obviously sobering, but there may be a silver lining. My biggest fear was that the collapse in SNP support under Humza Yousaf would be delayed until the next general election campaign was well underway and it was far too late to do anything about it. That would have mirrored what happened in 2017 when the SNP appeared to be in a commanding position going into the campaign, but their underlying weakness became apparent over the subsequent few weeks and by polling day they were clinging on for dear life, powerless to do much about the relentless swing to Labour. This time they're getting fair warning that there's a crisis - so there's still an opportunity for them to avert disaster, but it's only an opportunity and none of us can force them to take it. Now we'll find out whether they're going to act like rabbits caught in the headlights, or whether they'll take one or both of the remedies that are open to them. The obvious step is to replace the extremely unpopular Humza Yousaf as leader, and the other possibility is to put a mandate for independence back on the short-term agenda, which is the only realistic way in which Yes support can be galvanised behind the SNP in the absence of a popular leader.
One thing that strikes me is that the SNP's Westminster MPs have already played a part in ripping up Nicola Sturgeon's flagship policy of a de facto referendum, because they were scared that it would cost them their seats. Now that they can see Humza Yousaf's leadership is actually a far, far greater threat to their seats, it would be a bit odd if they shied away from taking similarly drastic action by pushing for him to be removed. But politicians do not always react rationally or consistently, as we know.
A dead certainty that on these results, it would be a Tory-Labour-LibDem coalition. This would be lauded to the heavens by the MSM as being the "best of all worlds" and "representative of the majority" etc etc etc...
ReplyDeleteThe main beneficiaries would be the Conservatives, the biggest loosers would be Labour (after being played like fiddles by the Tories once again- Better Together Mk2).
If the SNP can regroup, the 2011-2016 "years of opportunity" could benefit them again.
I don't think that Labour would enter a coalition with the Conservatives. The SNP would run a minority government most likely under those seat numbers.
DeleteJames, if Yousaf loses the pro-Indy majority at the next HR election, what’s your gut-feel prediction for when we’ll get that majority again?
ReplyDeleteThere's no guarantee we'd ever get it back. There could be a Quebec-style scenario where the only "Scottish nationalist" government on offer is from an anti-independence party - that seems to be the way the SNP are gradually heading.
DeleteI don't care if they put independence back on the agenda, because I simply won't believe them. I will not be voting SNP.
ReplyDeleteIt strikes me that the SNP seem to be making the same mistake in advance of 2024 that they made after 2017 - misreading the election results as a rebuke of independence, rather than a rebuke of their cowardly about-face the moment May called the election. It wasn't the calls for a referendum that turned people off in 2017. It was the subsequent insistence that the upcoming election was nothing to do with independence at all. It looked calculated, and ensured that nobody was pleased. The call for a referendum had already annoyed No voters; reneging on that did nothing to assuage them. All it did was signal Yes voters that they could give a guilt-free vote to Corbyn. Which many did.
ReplyDeleteAnd here we are again, faced with a resurgent Labour, and the SNP is entirely unwilling to leverage independence as the major issue of contention between the two parties as a wedge issue, for fear of scaring the horses.
In truth, the only effect that will have is people turning to Labour in their droves to see off the Tories. And the same SNP faces will be left gawking in confusion when their voters don't turn out in force to, erm, "send a message to Westminster" or whatever vague abstraction their strategists come up with.
In a way, it's almost fascinating to watch a party commit such obvious and egregious strategic errors. But it's also sobering if you have any interest in independence at all.
The SNP has really screwed it. Their majority and strength of 2015 is never coming back. The golden opportunity Brexit, Johnson etc gave us is never coming back - Brexit is now the status quo, however awful it is. Independence and being able to save us from a far right Brexit Britain we clearly didn’t vote for was the only reason there was to vote SNP. It was the one critical difference they had. It’s very hard to see what the point of the party is now they’ve let all that go and become just another U.K. establishment party.
ReplyDelete“The SNP has a vibrant internal democracy which encourages debate and provides a broad tent for the respectful exchange of differing views. We need to reflect that in our internal structures whilst also ensuring that we have the confidence, not just of all our members, but of Scotland as well.”
ReplyDeleteThis is a quote from Humza Yousaf in today's National. If this is what he really thinks then I don't hold out much hope for any improvement in the SNP and the way it is run.
Frankly I feel like the SNP are now acting like SLab did before they lost Scotland. Expecting that people will just continue to vote for the party regardless of them actually doing anything for the population. They're in for a rude awakening.
ReplyDelete