Thanks to Keaton for pointing out to me that the first 'proper' poll of the SNP leadership election has been published - ie. a poll of SNP members who actually have a vote, as opposed to the polls we've previously seen of the general public or of SNP voters, most of whom don't have a vote. It turns out, as we feared, that SNP members are pulling in a different direction from the party's voters and the wider public, and that Humza Yousaf has a lead on first preferences. However, the good news is that the lead is small enough that there is a clear path to victory for Kate Forbes once second preferences are taken into account, which arguably means she should now be considered the slight favourite.
SNP members' first preferences for leader (Savanta ComRes / Daily Telegraph, 23rd February - 1st March 2023):
Humza Yousaf: 31%
Kate Forbes: 25%
Ash Regan: 11%
So there are two questions here: firstly, will the 32% of undecideds break in roughly the same way as those who already have a view, and secondly, how strongly will Ash Regan's voters break for Forbes on second preferences? There's no doubt in my mind at all that the majority of Regan voters will go for Forbes over Yousaf, but on these figures they would need to break roughly 9-2 to put Forbes 34-33 in the lead (or the proportionate equivalent of that) on the final count. That would normally be a tall order, but it's very hard to see why all that many Regan voters would prefer Yousaf to Forbes - he supports the GRR Bill and he's by far the most tepid and 'do nothing' of the three candidates on independence strategy, which puts him at the opposite end of the spectrum from Regan. Still, voters do odd things in preferential elections, and some people fail to rank more than one candidate.
It's now vital that Regan's most prominent backers (such as, let's face it, a certain gentleman in Somerset) stress the importance of using a second preference for Forbes as a back-up. Stuart does have an 'everything or nothing at all' streak to his personality, which led him at one point to urge Kate Forbes not to even stand and thus allow a straight fight between Yousaf and Regan (an outcome that would almost certainly have handed Yousaf the leadership on a plate). If he doesn't want to blow a golden opportunity to stop Yousaf, it would be wise of him to clearly hammer home that this is a preferential voting system and that Forbes is obviously preferable to Yousaf.
* * *
If you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop continue in some form, donations are welcome. The simplest method is a direct Paypal payment. My Paypal email address is:
jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
If you wish, you can add a note saying "for the fundraiser", although even if you don't do that, it'll be fairly obvious what the payment is for.
(I'm going to punt the Paypal option for a while, because I received a strange message the other night implying that there might soon be a delay in GoFundMe's payment processing. But if you don't have a Paypal account, last year's fundraiser is still open for donations HERE.)
I've always appreciated your optimism, James, but this doesn't feel like great news for the Forbes campaign. We have another 3 weeks, though.
ReplyDeleteWith respect, it doesn't matter a damn what it 'feels' like. If you get stuck in a first-past-the-post mindset during an STV election, you're going to be led astray, and you won't be the only person making that mistake. On these figures, it looks very, very tight on the final count, and as I said in the blogpost, Forbes may have a slight advantage at this stage. It may well be Yousaf who needs those "three more weeks" to turn things around.
DeleteKate Forbes says at Glenrothes:- " The continuity won't cut it any more. "
ReplyDeleteThat's you Yousaf.
Watching Glenrothes hustings : I want Yousaf - when I first saw him in 2012 I had a presentiment he'd lead us to independence. He's lost some of his fire but hasn't lost his charisma. Regan as Dep FM would be good. Forbes is like a TV interview host - good 'n all but comes across as a nice, pleasant, likeable school teacher (again, a good Dep FM).
ReplyDeleteI also think a man would make a change from Mz S and her existranz.
Stevie, I cannot make head nor tail of where you're coming from sometimes. You've been saying for days that you want a good indy leader, not a good First Minister - and now you announce you want the one candidate who will put an end to the independence cause for the foreseeable future. He has no intention of ever holding a vote on independence - you could have him as leader for 15 years and you'd be further away from independence at the end of that period than you are right now. More likely, though, is that he'll lose the next Holyrood election for the SNP (his personal ratings in the polls are significantly worse than Sarwar's) and we'd be starting from scratch in 2026.
DeleteThat's not what he's saying though - are you sure ?
DeleteYes, I am absolutely certain! He said it explicitly at the end of the Glenrothes hustings only half an hour ago - I'm struggling to see how you could have missed it. He has totally ditched the de facto referendum plan - he won't do it in 2024, he won't do it in 2034. All he offers is more going through the motions of begging for a Section 30 order that we all know will never come.
DeleteJames is spot on Yousaf said he wanted Plan A back - gold standard - sec 30.
DeleteYousaf is the guy who makes a big play about not accepting the Britnat block of GRR but is happy to give the Britnats a veto over independence by saying the way forward is sec 30. Talk about deja vu and living in the past. If you want Yousaf you are either a numpty or not an independence supporter.
DeleteForbes being the youngest still punted we need independence early.
Regan being older wants it now.
I don't know about other people but I am sick of the can kicking down the road on independence.
Glenrothes :
ReplyDeleteForbes sounds word for word like a Sturgeon clone - truly the continuity candidate.
Regan sounds nervous, lacking confidence, gimmicky (indy clock), irritated - not a leader yet.
Yousaf sounds like a new voice, still supping the Sturgeon-Aid but she's gone. I like his reasoning and authority.
Unbelievable. Yousaf says we already have an independence unit in head office but he doesn't know what they are doing.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if Kate wins if they will have a Alba moment but instead of a new party they flee for the greens.
DeleteForbes says:- " Ash is brave and bold"
ReplyDeletePoll of 515 members?
ReplyDeleteYup, that's the one.
DeleteRegan wants the party's finances along with membership numbers to be published on a quarterly basis. Murrell will be taking his Valium right now.
ReplyDeleteYousaf, like Boris Johnson, has the arrogance of entitlement.
ReplyDeleteFFS Yousaf saying we must go back to Plan A gold standard sec 30. He says Sturgeon is so brilliant but couldn't deliver independence. No wonder he is called useless. If members have any sense they will bin Yousaf.
ReplyDeleteForbes says we need to get back to being the party of independence.
ReplyDeletefrom tonight's performances there all pretty crap. Humza is still the worst but only just.
ReplyDeleteYousaf would want Sturgeon to be an international ambassador for Scotland.
ReplyDeletewell Ash ended well.
ReplyDeleteMaybe the SNP as a vehicle to independence is dead. They know they can string us along and we'll vote for them, but I've about had enough - defacto referendum or I won't vote for them - there's really not much difference between them and labour. They seem to be taking us for a ride and one day we'll have to face that - perhaps better to do it now rather than later. Clear the Sturgeonite troughers out.
ReplyDeleteAgreed.
DeleteIf the SNP do not have a clear commitment to a vote on independence in their manifesto, I will not vote for them. I will vote for whichever party does make such a commitment, irrespective of whether this means a sitting SNP loses their seat to a unionist or not.
DeleteWGD numpties rubbishing the poll and saying they will ignore it because it was the Telegraph.
ReplyDeleteSkier continuing his sleekit I am 50/50 between Forbes and Yousaf while all the time protecting Yousaf and criticising Forbes. Skier saying if you support Regan you are a Britnat - Regan is the strongest on wanting independence go figure that out in Skiers mind - no don't bother - he is a Sturgeon propagandist and Yousaf is Sturgeon's boy.
Leaving aside the difficulties of polling poltical party members and potential margins of error, on these numbers I'd expect Forbes to fall narrowly short as I'd expect the majority but not all of Regan's supporters to back her.
ReplyDeleteA lot of it will fall on where that huge percentage of undecideds go although I suspect many won't vote and the turnout may be low. Will undecideds be more likely to go with the continuity candidate or for something new?
Considering Yousaf is so well known and the poll was taken at the height of the Forbes controversy, I see no reason why most of his potential supporters would not be backing him already. Indeed, I think her polling numbers are impressive considering she has come out off what is surely the worst period of her campaign still competitive, which hopefully bodes well for her going forward.
I've also seen people on Twitter speculate whether there is any 'Shy Kate' factor. I need to be honest and say I have only told one other person who I know shares my negative views on Yousaf that I will be voting for her. I would never admit that in front of most people and never on Twitter, because anyone who does is immediately piled on by a mob and condemned as a bigot.
At the moment I'm Regan first and undecided on 2nd.
ReplyDeleteFeel Forbes' religious views could still be a huge barrier like it or not
Yousaf is quite polished but won't move the dial.
Really not sure.
Telegraph sponsored poll and you believe it ?
ReplyDeleteOch, away and stop being so bloody ridiculous. Savanta are members of the British Polling Council - they're capable of making methodological errors, but if they do, it won't be because the Telegraph was their client.
DeleteClearly this anonymous is a WGD numpty.
DeleteSteve,Forbes does not sound to me like a Sturgeon clone.While I respect Sturgeon,I do have to admit that Kate Forbes has some fresh ideas that I never heard from Sturgeon.These are:
ReplyDelete1) Unify the party by listening to every member so that they can contribute and feel valid.I never felt like that during the past years.
2) Focus on no voters in order to properly listen to them and persuade them of the merits to independence.The goal being to maximise the Yes vote.I never observed a strategy to achieve that over the past few years
3) Develop a costed vision for the first ten years of independence so that
people are clear about how independence will differ from devolution,Items included in the plan will be the economy,pensions,small business support ,eradication of poverty,health care and so on.
4) She identified the economy and finances as the key battle ground and
proposed to sharpen up the economic argument.My observation is that
we failed in that area ,so this is encouraging.It is long overdue
Watching the leadership debate at Glenrothes,I thought that all
candidates performed well,but I believe that Kate Forbes has more to offer.offer us. Humze did look composed ,but the concern about him is
that he is unpopular with the public.Unfair perhaps,but a leader with
such a poor public perception will not enhance the success of the
independence movement.He might make a good deputy first minister,but
even that might be risky.
4) She identified the economy as the key battle ground
I know but she just is too 'nice' - whether she is nice or not, the Scots won't get behind her. I wish we had Plaid Cymru's Adam Price.
DeleteAdam Price has proved to be a big disappointment - Welsh voters just haven't gone for him in the way expected. I gather there's quite a bit of speculation he won't be leader for much longer.
DeletePlaid Cymru is fundamentally still a crappy, right-wing party (like the SNP was pre-Salmond), and Wales has been demographically annexed by English 'settlers' - Price has a mountain to climb We tried guiding some Welsh nats towards using the internet as an ind tool but we dropped that idea very quickly - a quite disjointed, disparate, dysfunctional lot of politically naive language-obsessed folk. I think Price is a long way from finished.
Delete"Respect Sturgeon" for what?
Delete"Unfair perhaps" - not in the least.
Poll of SNP members ? How can you confirm the accuracy of this ?
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure how you'd expect me to answer that question. I mean, how would I confirm the accuracy of any other poll?
DeleteHow can the surveyors know who SNP members are? I haven’t had contact with any survey so I have my doubts about how genuine this survey is.
ReplyDeleteThere's nothing suspicious about the fact that you had no contact. It was an online poll, so you would only have received an invitation if you were a member of the correct online polling panel. They probably would have known in advance which members of the panel were SNP members by periodically asking questions like "are you a member of a political party?" and "which party?"
DeleteI'm an SNP member and would not have answered this type of question for the use of an anti- SNP media outlet.
ReplyDeleteThat's a meaningless statement, because no pollster reveals to respondents who their client is. You would have had no idea it was the Telegraph.
Delete