The informal, self-selecting polls on the SNP leadership election have so far generally shown Kate Forbes in the lead, so it's interesting that a properly conducted poll is now showing the same picture.
Net ratings on the question of whether each individual would do a good or bad job as First Minister (Ipsos UK, 16th February 2023):
Kate Forbes: +13
Angus Robertson: +7
Stephen Flynn: -1
Joanna Cherry: -3
John Swinney: -4
Shona Robison: -7
Humza Yousaf: -17
Other potential leadership candidates were asked about, but it would give a misleading impression to include their net ratings in the above list because the vast majority of respondents didn't know who they are and thus weren't able to offer an opinion on them.
For those who believe that Scotland's hopes of becoming an independent country hinge on Angus Robertson failing to win this leadership election, an analysis I have a degree of sympathy with, there's good and bad news here. The good news is that if Kate Forbes stands, Mr Robertson would suddenly look like the underdog rather than the favourite. The bad news is that there are credible reasons for doubting whether she'll stand (her youth and her six-month-old baby), and if she doesn't Mr Robertson would on these numbers become frontrunner by default.
Just as an aside, it's interesting that slightly more people know who Kate Forbes is than know who Angus Robertson is, even though Mr Robertson has been in frontline politics for much, much longer. (In fact, when he first became a parliamentarian, Ms Forbes was still primary school age, although she seems to have been attending an all-ages school in India at the time.)
Of the lesser-known candidates, only Màiri McAllan stands out to me as having a flicker of a chance. This poll doesn't particularly help her or damage her, because it gives her a net rating of +1, with 59% of respondents not knowing who she is. It's a strange thing - Ms McAllan is 30 years old and Ms Forbes is 32, and yet in spite of that small age gap my instinctive reaction is that Ms McAllan is too young and Ms Forbes isn't. Maybe it's not so much chronological age that tips the balance here, but instead Ms Forbes' greater experience at a senior level in government.
Humza Yousaf, meanwhile, may reflect on his numbers and decide to sit the contest out. It looks impossible for him to win from this starting point. I do feel it's his streak of arrogance that has been his downfall, which is tragic in some ways because he is arguably the most conventionally charismatic person in the Scottish Government.
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McAllan would get my vote.
ReplyDeleteI hope you don't have a vote
DeleteI would love to see a Christian take office of FM after the Sturgeon era. I’m all in on Forbes.
ReplyDeleteI would love to see an independence supporter take office of FM after the Sturgeon era.
DeleteWhat a peculiar comment! Unless you’re hoping she incorporates her religion directly into policy-making (she won’t; that would be politically disastrous in a secular country), I’m not really sure what there is for people to “hate” - or in your case “love” - about her being a Christian. It’s about as politically relevant as her height or eye colour.
DeleteThat seems unlikely considering that she has openly adopted political positions based on her faith in the past. A grounding in conservative Christian values is surely likely to slow if not halt the party’s manic focus on divisive and wrong headed social liberal extremism. That’s far more important to me that independence strategy - which is largely a busted flush for at least the next half decade anyway.
DeleteHmmm. A cynic might wonder if you're posing as her supporter in a deliberate attempt to damage her chances.
DeleteI don’t have a vote in this election. I’ve not even voted SNP since 2019 and haven’t been a member since 2017. So not my battle to fight.
DeleteForbes is probably the only candidate that might lure me back to be fair.
Well, I certainly hope I'm right and you're not - mainly because I would prefer a strong SNP and robust indy movement over a someone who prioritises a narrow tranche of "Christian" values, that most Scottish Christians - let alone those of other beliefs and no beliefs at all - do not agree with.
DeleteIf she starts explicitly letting faith dictate her policy as FM, she'll be crushed by First Minister Sarwar in a landslide. But given how intellectually sharp Forbes appears to be, I cannot imagine she'd so recklessly and foolishly forfeit electoral success to explicitly pander to a very narrow sect of Christian belief.
I don’t understand the reference to Kate Forbes’ young child but no mention of Angus Robertson’s young family. Doesn’t he have at least two young children? Surely, if a young family is relevant to whether Kate Forbes stands or not then a similar consideration should be mentioned
ReplyDeletein relation to Angus Robertson and, indeed, any other candidate.
Are we virtue-signalling our political correctness or are we interested in living in the real world? I'm very much hoping she stands, by the way, don't be in any doubt about that. But for any mum of a six-month-old, it's bound to be a very personal decision that no-one else can really second-guess.
DeleteI suspect at least some of the 41% who claim to know who Màiri McAllan is are telling porkies. Not that I have anything against her (since I don't know who she is)
ReplyDeleteWell Keaton she has been on the telly quite a few times - even Question Time.
DeleteI genuinely knew who Mairi McAllan is before she even became a politician, because she is/was a traditional musician. For the life of me I can't place the occasion, but I'm 90% sure I saw her perform live at least once. Maybe it was at the Open Stage at Celtic Connections or something like that.
DeleteBut it's interesting you raise this point, because Ipsos threw a fake politician into the mix for comparison purposes, and only 19% claimed to know who he was. So that suggests roughly half the people who claim to have heard of Mairi McAllan are telling the truth.
I do hope not - we need a new voice but experienced
ReplyDeleteI guess we're going to find out how solid the internal bureaucratisation of the SNP under Sturgeon is. For continuation, as a as a career structure for managerialists, Robertson is clearly the best choice - please NO !
ReplyDeleteHopefully it will prove to have been based on little more than selfie obsessed hero worship of Sturgeon which can't readily transfer it's malignant appeal to another.
Neil Kinnock was the leader around whom the same thing consolidated in the Labour Party. He didn't have anything like Sturgeon's 'celebrity' appeal to the gullible in his party but a system was built which was about process rather than personality and which readily tranferred itself to the more dynamic Blair - the rest is history.
The SNP seems to me the other way around with Robertson as the 'grey' man and the continuation of the GRR rat pack's influence will also be unattractive to many who have met them.
Maybe a revival of independence as the priority is still possible ?
Ash Regan for me - she at least has shown some backbone by resigning her office on principle over GRR whereas Kate Forbes didn't sat on the fence.
ReplyDeleteShe was on maternity leave. It seems a stretch that she scheduled her pregnancy to dodge the vote, especially since she'd been vocally against the GRR in the past
DeleteKeaton she could have voted electronically. That's a bit silly to suggest anyone is saying she scheduled her pregnancy to avoid the vote.
DeleteThat's somewhat disingenuous as I never said or implied what you say. Also Kate Forbes was not pregnant when the vote was held as her baby had already been born.
DeleteMy point is - and as I suspect you know - Kate Forbes could very easily have voted on the matter remotely, this being the 21st century. There wasn't even a need to travel to Holyrood.
She simply chose not to. Her choice.
The National's informal poll had "other" over 20%. Màiri McAllan was nowhere until the final day when support for her suddenly shot up. Strategic lobbying going on? Anyway, anybody but Robertson.
ReplyDeleteI honestly can't think of a single MSP who I think would be up to job, and that's worrying.
ReplyDeleteThere's more choice from the MP side and for me it would always be Phillippa Whitford.
SNP members need to write down what they want from a leader and decide which of the candidates best fits that profile. For me the criteria are:
1. An unambiguous focus on the objective of Scottish independence.
2. A realistic plan of what needs to be done to achieve this objective.
3. Demonstrable evidence of the ability to identify appropriate team members, assemble and organise them on delivering independence.
4. Evidence that they can motivate and direct the team and keep them steady and focused on the objective.
5. Be able to communicate with pro-Indy and undecided voters that items 1-4 are being delivered.
Of these five criteria, only Phillippa Whitford comes close.
Good criteria Jacob72. I once wrote to my MP Oswald suggesting a split role - a leader focussing on independence and a deputy responsible for day to day Scottish government duties. Oswald responded to the effect of don't worry your little head Nicola is more than capable of doing both and delivering success on both.
DeletePersonally I don't think Sturgeon ever lifted a finger to deliver independence and Theresa May, Boris Johnston, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak all knew that.
I don't think that the lack of action by NS was deliberate. Rather I think that the SG under Nicola Sturgeon fell into the trap of having to manage day to day issues with all of the constraints that devolution imposes, rather than focus on the end goal. In that sense devolution may not have killed the Nats stone dead rather than mired them in a bureaucratic muddy bog.
DeleteI see the attraction of a dual leader set up, but it might be tricky to manage. I'd argue that the WM leader and the MPs should be the leader on independence and HR can deal with the SG duties.
Yes, Ash Regan has the courage of her convictions.
ReplyDeleteThe charlatan who calls himself WGD says Sturgeon resigning proves critics wrong. She proved she was not a careerist he claims. Skier posted that nonsense on WGD first so we now have Kavanagh copying Skiers nonsense in The National.
ReplyDeleteI could say Sturgeon proved Kavanagh was wrong on so many many things about Sturgeon and her barrowload of carrots she dispensed over many years but that would be untrue. The reason being Kavanagh always knew fine well what Sturgeon was but being the charlatan he is he played along with Sturgeon as the great leader either to maximise his revenues from his blog or as he probably justifies it to himself to do what is best for independence.
Sturgeon fooled the btl WGD numpties but she never fooled Kavanagh. Kavanagh is still fooling the btl WGD numpties but then that's not surprising and that's why they deserve to be described as numpties.
OK Stu
DeleteIs that you Paul? You know it's true.
DeleteThe WGD numpties clearly have learned nothing from Sturgeon's resignation. Yesindyref2 thinks Sturgeon can now go on Loose Women, GMB, Question Time etc etc and " She'd have the Union trembling itself to dust."
DeleteSturgeon has had 8 years as FM and 7 years as Deputy but the Bathtub Admiral now thinks she can bring the union down by going on Britnat programmes as a failure. Truly unbelievable the depth of nicophancy that exists on display on WGD. Embarrassing for any adult.
Myself and my late husband have strongly supported independence and indeed the SNP for more than 40 years. At this stage Kate Forbes seems very appealing to me as a potential leader and I respect her strong Christian beliefs as a member of the Free Church of Scotland. However as a gay Christian man, I do have some serious reservations about her approach and attitude as a First Minister towards minority rights in general. If she decides to stand I hope she will clarify what her approach would be and reassure me and the many others who care about these issues and very deeply about Scottish independence.
ReplyDeleteThank goodness SAS doesn't seem to be given any credence by anyone. It is a disgrace that she is in charge of the Education of Scotland's children. Hopefully whoever is the next FM moves her to where she rightly belongs - backbench obscurity - and she can spend more time in Pizza Express where you never know she might bump in to the Earl of Inverness and they can discuss their regrets at the mistakes they have made in their lives.
ReplyDeleteI remember Humza making a passionate speech in George sq Nov 2019 where he said he loved Glasgow and was a glasgow boy etc. Nothing wrong with that. If he becomes FM will he now say he loves Dundee. The main reason he should not be FM is his Hate Crime bill.
Instead of going for independence these people have been too busy with their social engineering.
I mean really. Is this what the WGD numpties can come up with after Sturgeons 8 years as FM - Golfnut proudly boasts of Kezia Dugdale ex Labour Leader saying she is " proud to live in Nicola Sturgeon's Scotland". Kezia Dugdale for goodness sake - give us a break. Dugdale is happy because we are still England's colony and she wants her partner Gilruth to keep picking up a Ministerial salary. Ya numpty Golfnut - away do something useful like practising your putting instead of coming out with this crap. Your independence supporter handicap is about 36.
ReplyDelete