50%+1 of combined votes from pro-independence parties in any WM or HR election is a clear instruction from the electorate that we commence withdrawal negotiations from the U.K. Independence - nothing less pic.twitter.com/egYyyeDa8c
— Ash Regan MSP (@AshtenRegan) February 19, 2023
This is excellent - the sort of 100% clarity I was hoping for from at least one candidate. If other candidates deliberately use vague language in trying to explain how they will win independence, ask them why they're not matching this.https://t.co/txkGn5L5TF
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) February 19, 2023
I'm not the only one who's impressed. If I was Ash Regan I'd put this at the top of the campaign website like a theatre review.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) February 19, 2023
"Amazing" - Blair McDougallhttps://t.co/TJF3i8ySVX
I said a couple of days ago that it was inevitable that at least one SNP leadership candidate would emerge with a credible, highly specific and daring plan for winning independence, and that person would deserve the full support of SNP members and the wider movement. Ash Regan has now hit that threshold, so the only remaining question is whether any other candidate will match what she's done. If not, we'll all be getting our prayer-mats out and hoping Ms Regan wins.
I've been saying all along that the closing off of the referendum path - which is the fault of the British state and not of the independence movement - is an opportunity rather than a setback as long as we make it one. What it does is liberate us once and for all from the tyranny of the 'once in a generation' and 'we only get one more shot at this' narratives, which have been giving the 'do nothing' faction the excuse to run in terror from any opportunity to actually win independence. There's no longer any need to refrain from shooting on goal because you're trying to set up the 'perfect score'. The only limit on the number of times you can use an election as a de facto independence referendum is the number of elections that take place. And a Westminster election is never more than five years away. A Holyrood election is never more than five years away. If you're happy to use either a Westminster or Holyrood election, opportunities might come up roughly every two or three years.
Of course it's easy to see why the likes of Blair McDougall think that de facto referendums should - for some unspecified reason - have the scarcity of actual referendums, but why in God's name would we let Blair McDougall set the rules? All Ash Regan is promising is that we more or less revert to the pre-devolution principle that the SNP go into every general election seeking a mandate for independence. Famously, even Margaret Thatcher herself accepted that principle, and acknowledged that Scotland would become independent if the SNP won a majority in a general election - and that meant any general election, without any arbitrary limits. To her, a mandate for independence in 1987 would have had just as much validity as a mandate for independence in 1983 or 1979. There is no expiry date on a country's right to democratic self-determination.
I said yesterday that I don't think Ash Regan can win because she's best known for her stance on the gender issue, which puts her at odds (we assume) with the majority of SNP members. I still fear that's the case, but she's doing absolutely the right thing in trying to overcome that disadvantage - she's putting independence strategy rather than the gender issue at the heart of her campaign pitch. Even in 2023, independence is what SNP members care about most. An additional problem for her is that she's less well known than some of the other likely candidates, and the extreme haste with which the SNP hierarchy are deliberately running this campaign gives her less time and scope to introduce herself. But again, that means she's been extremely wise in coming out of the blocks so fast, and in setting a gold standard for independence strategy that the other candidates are now effectively being dared to meet.
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An excellent article James. Hopefully the SNP members still put actually obtaining indepence above all other matters and they get a fair vote. If they get a fair vote and vote for a time waster then it is crystal clear the SNP is no longer a party of independence. There will be no ifs no buts about it.
ReplyDeleteIf she goes a pragmatic half way house on GRR reform and pledge to negotiate with WM on the s35 to include all the necessary safeguards that were not listened to maybe she can get a broad base of support from both sides ... help trans and protect women !
ReplyDeleteSome comedy gold from WGD numpties.
ReplyDelete1. Dr Jim says of Sturgeon:- " The future president of Scotland still has them petrified. " A nicophant right to the end.
2. Hamish100 says:- " I tried to post my view on the National but was blocked as spam." Aye Hamish The National is getting to know you.
3. Skier who has posted for the last 8 years how great Sturgeon is and how she will lead Scotland to independence and would not resign now says this:- " I didn't vote for Sturgeon in 2021, I voted for my local MSP and for the SNP."
'nicophant' - good word
DeleteDr Jim has abandoned his first love - Sturgeon - and is now drooling over Kate Forbes. Katophant doesn't quite have the same ring about it.
DeleteExcellent article. In 1926 Canada, New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, Republic of Ireland and Nova Scotia all seceded as they had nationalist majorities in their parliaments. McDougall might not like it but that’s the difference between a voluntary union between countries rather than a colony we can vote ourselves out at any time. The original Act Of Union went through after England paid cash to several Scottish aristocrats. We’re live in a democracy now.
ReplyDeleteI mean Regan is essentially standing on an Alba platform. That was always much more popular among SNP members and activists than Alba’s performance at the polls would lead you to believe. Does it have majority support in the party? We will soon find out!
ReplyDeleteAt least she is enthusiastic - I read Pat Kane's article on Nicky and was surprised to see he also saw that our former FM neither had the spirit, interest nor motivation to pursue indy. I understood we would just have to begrimly patient till she lost control of the party and that would be a long wait (and a long wait it has been). Thank fk she's gone - an indy leader she was not.
ReplyDeleteActually (GRR and a couple of things aside), Patrick Stewart would be my choice for an Indy leader?
ReplyDeleteTo do that he'd have to boldly go where he's never gone before. That said, he was a very convincing Lenin in Fall of Eagles.
DeleteAnd a mean Karla in Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy tv series. Never says a word. What acting!
Delete"Make it so" would be a good referendum slogan
DeleteAt least one person in the SNP has the guts to fight for independence.
ReplyDelete48 yrs, anti-GRR : could be good if she can find a GRR compomise that suits the Greens.
ReplyDeleteGood to be the one who not only put that put but put that out FIRST. That puts the other candidates in an interesting position.
ReplyDeleteJames, can you point us to the actual quote by Thatcher about Scottish Independence. Some people quote it was a majority of seats and others say she was never that specific. I can't seem to find the quote about seats other than on graphics that people have created.
ReplyDeleteI am longing for independence. The British state apart from a few years after the Second World War has always benefited the few (it’s what the class system was invented for). I want Scotland to be a European country more on the Nordic model.
ReplyDeleteAnd so politicians and supporters must make a case for independence. We should make a case for the new state to be about compassion & compromise. This is the only way of getting to 51% and above. We can’t afford to demonize our potential supporters, we must take their concerns seriously and try and answer their questions honestly and frankly.
The way Westminster and the media are behaving without compassion & compromise, trying to hold on to the status quo. Will only lead to bitterness and the end of the British state as we know it. Like all their past dependences they will be too weak to hold on and the argument for independence will become obvious.
WGD numpties starting to come out for Robertson - quelle surprise!
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile Hamish100 shows his ignorance. " As I understand it to have a Holyrood election......."
Will someone please tell that thicko Hamish100 you can just change the 2/3 majority required to call an election at Holyrood by having a majority of MSPs. It's in the Scotland Act 2016. He has just wasted his time posting a lot of Wikipedia stuff. That's what happens when you are informed by liars like Pete Wishart. In fact I am sure the Bathtub Admiral even posted that information on WGD at one time. Let's hope there are not a lot of SNP members like Hamish.
You're really not a very nice person...are you?
DeleteAw sorry Hamish have I upset you. What was it you said just the other day - oh that's right SGP are Britnats. That wasn't very nice was it.
DeleteIs this nice by WGD numpty jfngw:- " My predictions are Nicola Sturgeon will be offered an international role by a major organisation. Meanwhile Alex Salmond will be offered the comperes role at Edinburgh's Western bar."
DeleteI thought Sturgeon was tired out and wanted to spend more time with her family. Salmond is still there fighting for Scottish independence.
Update: yesindyref2 tries to explain it again to Hamish100. Let's hope it sinks in this time. Was it nice of Hamish to attack Angus's amendment for the SNP conference based on false info in his post. In fact was it nice of the SNP to tell lies to its membership.
DeleteSkier declares Ash Regan is not for him. "too single issue" says Skier. Aye Skier we cannae have someone who actually wants independence. Skier prefers independence time wasters.
DeleteSkier is like a character in a soap opera, you just kind of know what his opinion is going to be before he even tells you.
DeleteI confidently predict that his legendary "French wife" will be no keener on Ash Regan than he is.
I do have to say that it is unusual and a bit brave for some of the WGD numpties to declare for Robertson. After all they have not been told what to do by Sturgeon and the big dug has gone all quiet on the matter. If Kavanagh says it should be Yousaf will they fall in line like good old doggers.
DeleteIf you think it should be Yousaf just think about his horrendous thought crime Hate Bill that the polis still cannae work out to this day how to enforce it and it is sitting in deep freeze despite being passed by the Parliament.
Well at least there's a glimmer of hope for the party with Ash standing on such a bold ticket.
ReplyDeleteGood to see an unambiguous plan on what would trigger a declaration of independence. That's item 1 of five on my list from the other day.
ReplyDeleteFrom Ash Regan's perspective it also sets the weather and sort of forces the other candidates onto that ground to give theor response while she formulates on the other parts of her platform.
I know nothing about her at all other than she resigned over the GRR.
Her biggest hurdles are going to be:
1. Getting enough endorsements to be on the ballot. I imagine that there's a stop Regan campaign by the high heid-yins already. A branch phone round and visits are necessary.
2. She'll be painted as the SNP's Jeremy Corbyn by the same high heid-yins and the press. Sorting out the current problems in the NHS needs to be No.1, but public sector pay also needs addressed. Being pragmatic is essential here.
3. She'll have less than 50% support amongst the MSP. That may prove tricky in assembling a credible team and it also leaves many people willing to put a knife in your back. The only way to overcome this is by being as open to alternative views and give people real responsibility.
4. She'll have difficulty with the Greens and the GRR. Despite her own objections to the GRR I think it is necessary that she challenges the UK Govt position, there's a principle involved, but she should also set up a citizens' jury on the GRR straightaway and have it report after the next WM election with a commiment to implementing any changes it recommends.
You don't need to worry about anyone not getting enough endorsements. Candidates merely need 100 nominations from at least 20 branches.
DeleteA very easy low threshold, frankly. I suspect Alex Salmond could get himself nominated if he really wanted to - the constitution doesn't seem to exclude non-members from being nominated.
That's reassuring on the nominations. I had read it as requiring 20 branches to nominate you.
Delete'Kate Forbes expected to unveil SNP leadership bid with focus on boosting economy' -- Sturgeon : send in the clones.
ReplyDeleteWith apologies, I'm not going to risk publishing comments containing false information (however unintentionally) about how the voting system for the leadership election works. As I explained the other day, it's a preferential votimg system, not first-past-the-post, so no, "vote-splitting" is not a concern.
ReplyDeleteWGD numpties get it wrong again. Robertson not standing for FM. I'm guessing that's why the usual crowd like Hunter came out for Yousaf. They knew exactly why Robertson as leader just would not fly. WGD numpties have no clue at all.
ReplyDeleteRobertson announced he's not standing.
ReplyDeleteBut Forbes is in.
ReplyDeleteIf you want Sturgeon working Yousaf's controls like a back seat driver vote for him. But don't say you weren't warned when the years go by, just like the last 8 years, and nothing happens about independence other than more carrots being dispensed.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone truly believe he is up to the job of running Scotland never mind deliver independence. Yousaf boasts of his experience of 10 years in government. What are his greatest achievements?