I'm a little surprised by Angus Robertson's decision not to stand for the leadership, but I'm not totally astounded, and that's for two reasons. Firstly, Nicola Sturgeon's representatives on Earth like Mhairi Hunter have been very noticeably coming out for Humza Yousaf rather than Mr Robertson. Although there was always a chance Ms Hunter had suddenly developed some independent opinions of her own, that didn't seem very likely somehow. And secondly, Stuart Campbell made a cryptic comment a few days ago about how he didn't think Mr Robertson would stand, and that analysis didn't sound to me like the product of deep personal reflection - I think it had come direct from a voice down the blower. In fact I may even be able to hazard an educated guess as to who that voice belonged to.
We're now left with a fascinating race. Initially it looked like we were going to see an unbalanced contest between an already strong frontrunner candidate who would also have the additional advantage of the full support of the current Sturgeon/Murrell-backed hierarchy, and the leading outsider candidate, who might or might not have been Kate Forbes. Now it's the outsider candidate who will be the clear frontrunner, and although there will still be a hierarchy-backed candidate in the shape of Mr Yousaf, he will need to use that advantage to overcome what looks like a clear deficit from the start. That's a very different proposition and we'll now have to see whether any dirty tricks the current leadership can throw at Ms Forbes will be sufficient to close the gap. Frankly, if the Sturgeonite rearguard action succeeds, it's going to be just as bad for the SNP's electoral chances as it will be for the cause of independence, because the polls are unanimous in showing that Mr Yousaf would be a very unpopular First Minister.
Plus there's also the wildcard of Ash Regan, whose stated programme has deservedly guaranteed her the support of practically all truly committed independence supporters. However we have to be realistic and remember that the SNP membership has proved itself in recent years to be a strangely conservative group of people who quite often seek out the comfort blanket of the least radical option.
At this stage my money would be strongly on Kate Forbes, although much will depend on how resilient she'll prove as she takes an inevitable hammering from the usual suspects over her religious views in the coming weeks.
And whatever Mr Robertson's reasons for not standing, I think we should salute him for doing the movement a tremendous favour. Although my main concern about him was that I doubted he had a credible strategy for winning independence, a victory for him would also have further intensified the toxic division in the movement between Salmond and Sturgeon supporters. There is now an opportunity to move forward with a leader who can transcend that split - as long as Mr Yousaf is unsuccessful, of course.
Well, regardless of my speculations of a couple of hours ago, Kate Forbes seems to have been quoted backtracking from a de facto independence referendum, so I don't think there's much doubt now that I want Ash Regan to win. That's a tough ask, but we'll see.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) February 20, 2023
* * *
Forbes/Regan leader/deputy double act? Yousaf would be just as bad as Robertson.
ReplyDeleteDoesn't work as Keith Brown hasn't resigned.
DeleteNotable that Ash Regan has said that people should not be picking on Kate Forbes because of her religious beliefs. That's a positive statement in my view.
But it wouldn't stop Ash from being deputy FM . Just bypass Brown as he would only be deputy in party .
DeleteJacob72 hopefully is a statement that suggests they could work well together as a new team. One as FM the other as Deputy FM. Regan responsible for achieving independence and Forbes for running the Scotgov.
DeleteFingers crossed.
DeleteMy fingers are uncrossed. Forbes has made it clear she is a do nothing about independence candidate.
DeleteAnother excellent article James in a long line of them. Contrast that with WGD - silence is golden seems to be his motto at present. Is he trying to work out who to back that will keep his blog turning over nicely? Or perhaps he is just tired like Sturgeon and should retire like Sturgeon. After all his current article is called the end of an era.
ReplyDelete" who that voice belonged to " - I' m guessing it was either a guy in a police uniform or Craig Murray who called it that Robertson would not stand in his article on the 15th Feb.
Religion, race, GRR none of these things should be an issue in voting for the FM. Independence - is what it should be and Yousaf is a gradualist and has only said he would review things about independence. No commitment to the special conference no commitment to de facto. That means DO NOTHING. If you vote for Yousaf SNP members you are not voting for independence and should just own up as a party of devolution - which of course means a Unionist party with the only distinction of being registered in Scotland compared to the Britnat parties who are registered in London.
Yousaf would would more than likely end up having a bad UK GE result and a lot of SNP MPs would lose their seats followed then by the more significant disaster of the Britnats controlling Holyrood. On independence he would do nothing because the polls are bad he would say.
Yousaf could deliver the Tory wet dream of independence scuppered for generations not just a generation.
Kavanagh has suffered from bouts of fatigue ever since his stroke. He made clear (prior to Sturgeon’s resignation I might add) that he was taking a break due to such fatigue.
DeleteI get that constructing your entire identity in opposition to Kavanagh’s blog has always suggested an unhealthy lack of perspective. But fantasising his stroke into some grand Sturgeonite conspiracy is odiously obsessive, even by your standards.
Think you could be doing with a little mental health break yourself.
Yeh and I am pretty tired of WGD numpties like you posting pish. I would thank you for your concern about my mental health if I thought there was even a smidgeon of sincerity. I have suffered from regular bouts of anonymous cowards posting insults who cannae handle the truth. You are a diddy and the clue is your use of the word conspiracy.
DeleteKavanagh may well have suffered a stroke but that doesn't mean he is not a charlatan and should be beyond criticism. He is pretty good at dishing out criticism himself both before and after his stroke. Perhaps you should note that during his fatigue breaks he can still produce his articles for The National.
A poster who hides in the anonymite crowd talking about standards dishing out insults. Holding the high ground there are you.
You were christened Independence for Scotland ?
DeleteWere you christened Third Craw? If you have a point to make try making it instead of pointless one liners.
DeleteDoes anyone have any real knowledge of Forbes' policy priorities? She seems to have quietly become a big player without giving any opinions!
ReplyDeleteMost of the debate at present seems to be around the social aspects with Yousaf on the left, Regan on the right & Forbes keeping quiet.
Economically it appears Regan is more radical, Forbes conservative & Yousaf unknown (& unknowledgeable?)
Most importantly do we have any idea whether Forbes will actively work towards independence or will it be more of the same?
Forbes as First Minister, Regan as Deputy First Minister and Constitution Secretary for indy?
ReplyDeleteAlec Lomax WGD numpty says:- " You can post on SGP anonymously. I get the impression James is about to jump ship from Alba."
ReplyDeleteWell well Lomax promoting WGD numpties to post on SGP as anonymous. Cowards!
James, I must have missed you saying you were thinking of leaving Alba or is Lomax doing what the numpties always said about Sturgeon critics - reading your mind. What are these people like - total time wasters just like their idol Sturgeon. If there are things James doesn't like in Alba he is quite right to speak out. That's what has been missing in the SNP with all this wheest for SNP wheest for Indy stuff.
Skier comes out for Yousaf. As James said previously you can read him like a soap show character. A phoney character.
ReplyDeleteOh and wait for this Skier the great SNP/ Sturgeon supporter says if the other two candidates win he will vote the Greens in future.
Others posting here are right. We need to know where Forbes stands on action for independence. Unless of course a chance develops that Regan could win outright.
ReplyDeleteBBC Reporting Scotland today - big splash about Yousaf standing ( even though he had already announced his intention to stand last week), smaller amount of coverage for Forbes who had just announced her intention to stand, miniscule coverage for Regan along the lines of oh and there is also this Regan person.
ReplyDeleteThe British state showing its hand.
Would the Greens actually vote for Forbes as First Minister? Someone who does not support the GRR bill and would not challenge the section 35 order? I think when push comes to shove they will but will probably cost Lorna Slater and Patrick Harvie the leadership of the party ( been mumblings around for a while that the party is not overly happy with them, this could be the straw that breaks the camels back).
ReplyDeleteShe wouldn't actually need them to vote for her - as has been well rehearsed in recent weeks, no absolute majority is required. As long as they don't actively vote for a unionist candidate, there's no problem.
DeleteWGD numpty Skier was a very strong supporter of both votes SNP in May 21 Holyrood. He even said you were a Unionist if you didn't follow the SNP instructions.
ReplyDeleteNow he says:- " I don't want the SNP to have a majority in Holyrood for this reason. I want Yes party coalitions. "
That's right the Alba hater is now all for yes party coalitions. Unreal - changes his views like the weather in Scotland. There was an opportunity for a real independence supermajority in Holyrood but people like Skier and other WGD numpties blew it with their hatred of Salmond. Own it numpties.
To slightly misquote Katy Perry: "Skier changes his mind like a girl changes clothes"
DeleteI thought A Rob would give it a go but nope. 3 reasons : family first; not popular enough; not got the energy. All fair enough.
ReplyDeleteForbes is ok but no indy leader : front runner... oh well. Hope she's not Mz S ll.
"All Fair enough " - no chance that the first and third are true - possibly the second. How is Progress Scotland going Stevie?
DeleteYousaf and Robertson are so loyal to Sturgeon that my working assumption is that if they were women they would have increased the number of alphabetties by another two letters.
I have nothing to do with prog Scot - is it still even a thing ?
DeleteForbes shying away from 50%+1 being enough in any de facto referendum? If I'm reading the report in The National correctly. Looks like Regan is our only hope.
ReplyDeleteYou can hate GRR all you like but Forbes is applying for the wrong job if she is going to stand back and let Westminster overrule the Scottish Parliament without a fight.
ReplyDeleteDon't think have to worry about Forbes winning TBH. I would be amazed if you can say you don't support same sex marriage and win a SNP leadership election. Even if she did win she would not last long, at some point she would say or be found to of said something that would make her position untenable.
ReplyDeleteTo be fair to her, i belive she has said in the past if its a choice between her beliefs and
Kate Forbes WILL be next Leader and FM. Shoe in.
DeleteWell I watched BBC Scotlands Disclosure programme by Mark Daly on Sturgeons resignation. It disclosed that Daly is bloody useless as an investigative reporter and his programme was a damp squid. Just a classic BBC Britnat programme that went over old news and disclosed nothing other than Daly cannae even get the basics right on the missing money issue. He called it party funds. If it was party funds they could spend it on anything they wanted. The whole point is that the funds were ring fenced and raised for a specific purpose and from members of the public not just SNP members. All he did was do a potted history of Sturgeons time in office with old film clips and some interviews. Some said Sturgeon was the greatest thing since sliced bread others said she was terrible as FM. Some of the Britnats tried hard to say independence was over but they knew that was crap. That wee weasel from the Daily Record was interviewed. No offence to weasels. It could only have been less of a shocker of a programme if Kirsty Wark and Dani Garavelli were interviewed. I would like to say more but prefer not to go to jail.
ReplyDeleteDaly left it that Sturgeon was probably embarrassed at her handling of 'what is a women' questions as a possible reason she suddenly quit. Utter nonsense that is the reason. Remember this is the woman who spent 8 hours in the Parliamentary Inquiry thinking up multiple ways to say she can't recall while spouting a litany of lies. A tough cookie.
Aw for goodness sake just seen the Forbes religious interrogation masquerading as a leadership interview by Britnat James Cook - pretty disgusting stuff. Contrast that with the fluffy interview carried out by Laura with Humza. Anyway Forbes is another do nothing on independence character - they call it gradualism in the SNP. Humza the same he rules out de facto referendum and has no ideas on how to progress independence. He will listen to the membership, listening is fine but if you are the leader of the so called leading Independence Party and you profess you do not have a clue how to obtain independence then what the f***k are you there for. Oh that's right GRR.
ReplyDeleteA choice between 1). a useless diddy who wants to waste more money on GRR and has no clue as to how to make Scotland independent and 2) a competent person who is sgainst GRR but is happy to do nothing and just wait till loads of Scots see sense and want independence. So both are useless on independence.
Serious question - Is Ash Regan the only person in the SNP that actually wants independence asap rather than in some faraway future that is always just over the horizon.
Stephen Moon calls people like me fundamentalists as if we are like the taliban. Moon is a member of the SNP but he could just as easily be at home in the Labour Party.
Sturgeon has done a right number on Scotland - how does anyone think the selection of the leader of an independence party should be judged on religion and GRR. What a mess and she did it on purpose.
In summary if Forbes is in control of independence policy it will be I am age 32 there is plenty time for this to happen and it is more time wasting ala Sturgeon. Ditto for Yousaf as he is 37. I ain't going to vote for any more time wasters. Had my fill with Sturgeon for 8 years going on 9 now.
BBC and WGD numpties now clearly against Ash Regan. Regan being the only person who wants independence. Now we know the BBC are Britnats - what about the numpties - they are de facto Britnats if you think about it.
ReplyDelete