Poll suggests monarchy is on a shoogly peg if Scotland moves towards independence

So a very Happy New Year to all Scot Goes Poppers!  We're now almost certainly in the penultimate year prior to the Westminster general election, which as things stand we expect to be used as a de facto independence referendum.  There's perhaps a very small outside chance that Sunak will call a snap election in the second half of this year, but only if he's made a massive recovery in the opinion polls, which at the moment is very hard to imagine.  And while January 2025 is technically the last possible date for the election, there's no chance in the real world of it being that late (in spite of what some people would have you believe).  The last realistic date is probably October 2024 - although if Sunak goes that late, the Tories will have unilaterally extended their own term of office in tinpot dictator style.  When they were elected in December 2019, the law clearly stated that the next election could be held no later than May 2024.

Although I'm a couple of days late with this, I thought I'd also look briefly at the Panelbase poll on the future of the monarchy in an independent Scotland.

If Scotland votes to become an independent country, should Scotland be a republic with an elected Head of State or should Scotland keep King Charles as Head of State?  (Panelbase / Alba Party, 12th-16th December 2022)

Republic: 55%

Keep King Charles: 45%

This is broadly in line with two or three other recent polls that showed a relatively even split, or a slight republican lead, in the context of an independent Scotland.  It's important to stress, though, that this doesn't mean Scotland has suddenly become an anti-monarchy country - there still appears to be a majority for keeping the monarchy if we stay in the UK.  I'm not sure it would be possible to devise a question that accurately captures attitudes to the monarchy without regard to Scotland's relationship with the UK, because if you don't mention independence in the question, people will just assume they're being asked about a scenario in which Scotland remains part of the UK.

Plainly, there is a substantial minority of voters who are monarchists in a UK context but who nevertheless think it would be more appropriate for an independent Scotland to have a homegrown Head of State, and those are the people who are tipping the balance.  This suggests that the BBC, and the rest of the forces of monarchism, have largely failed in their propaganda attempts to convince us that the late Queen was as "Scottish as they come", and that Scotland had a "special place in her affections" (just like Wales, Northern Ireland, Buckinghamshire, Jamaica and pretty much every other location on the planet). If we really perceived the monarchy as being authentically Scottish and rooted in Scotland, the question of independence wouldn't make such a huge difference to whether we think the monarchy should be retained.

Incidentally, I still think it makes strategic sense for the SNP to either be neutral on the subject of the monarchy, or to maintain a soft pro-monarchy stance.  Pro-indy republicans will still want independence even if the monarchy is retained, whereas monarchists might just be deterred from voting Yes by the prospect of a republic.  But for Alba it's a completely different calculation.  It's logical for Alba to have an anti-monarchy (and indeed anti-NATO) stance, because they're seeking to build a niche vote among the most radical independence supporters.

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