Falkirk South by-election result (first preference votes):
SNP 39.2% (+3.5)
Conservatives 38.9% (+6.8)
Labour 15.7% (-11.4)
Greens 6.2% (+1.1)
Our regular commenter 'Independence for Scotland' made an intelligent point about the reaction of SNP leadership loyalists to this result - they've said Alba have demonstrated themselves to be an irrelevance because they didn't stand a candidate. But the same people would undoubtedly have slammed Alba for splitting the vote if they had stood a candidate, which suggests that somewhere along the line the criticisms are intellectually dishonest.
The reality is, of course, that local elections (including by-elections) are conducted by a preferential voting system, which means Alba can stand without doing any harm whatsoever to other pro-independence parties, as long as they urge their voters to give lower preferences to the SNP and the Greens. The much trickier issue is first-past-the-post contests - ie. Westminster general elections, Westminster by-elections and Holyrood by-elections. In those cases, the vote can genuinely be split and in the worst-case scenario a unionist might end up winning unnecessarily. My own personal view is that Alba should sit out first-past-the-post elections unless there's an exceptionally good reason - with an example of an exceptionally good reason being that there are sitting Alba MPs in two Westminster constituencies. If there's a snap general election at any point, I think it would make strategic sense for Alba to pour all its resources into defending East Lothian and Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, and not actually stand anywhere else (unless there are other defectors, of course).
Is the tory increase down solely to unionist former Labour voters out to get the SNP? Or has Falkirk seen an increase in people from England settling in the area?
ReplyDeleteFalkirk is Britnat Central. There's also been a massive influx of No voting immigrants.
DeleteHopefully the total extermination of labour in Scotland will come soon.
Why do we still have people talking about a Scottish labour party post independence? What's the point in them?
Just shows how conditioned people are despite everything.
I’m from Falkirk and it’s full of bluenoses, unfortunately. Without the zombies who follow the “Queens 11” we would be an independent nation, free from the shackles of our oppressive neighbors.
ReplyDeleteI disagree completely James about an Alba decision not to stand at FPTP elections. This would be a major strategic error and it is not ALBA electoral policy as far as I am aware. Member 5016.
ReplyDeleteI didn't say or imply it was Alba electoral policy - in fact my exact words were "my own personal view is..."
DeleteHowever, people do need to think very carefully about the ramifications of what you're proposing. If Alba routinely stand in first-past-the-post contests, one of two things will happen. Either the Alba vote will be negligible, in which case we won't do any harm but the whole exercise will be a waste of time, or the Alba vote will be significant, in which case we'll be taking votes off the SNP and risking a unionist victory. That's self-evidently bad for the independence movement, but it's also bad for Alba as an individual party. As soon as there's a clear-cut example of Alba gifting the Tories or Labour a seat, the SNP will have an enormous stick to beat us with.
I’m not sure that I agree. The point is that we have been promised a referendum by the SNP, if that happens before a FPTP Westminster election then hopefully a yes vote will render the Westminster election pointless. If there is no referendum before the Westminster election then we need Alba to stand even against SNP, this will allow people to voice displeasure at the lack of movement on the promised Independence ref, hopefully then pushing SNP to follow through with IR2 before the 2026 Scottish election.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure "allowing people to voice displeasure" will be particularly beneficial if the only effect of it is increased unionist representation.
DeleteI guess some would say that the only way to get the SNP to change meaningfully in response to the displeasure is for them to lose seats to a more independence-focussed party, and that to achieve that it's worth Scotland returning a Tory/Lab majority to Westminster for one parliamentary session.
DeleteIt's extremely naive to think it would only be for one parliamentary session. Once it happens, it'll become the norm again.
DeleteMeanwhile in the land of the numpties and the home of the doggers Malkie says that Alba is not just to be considered insignificant but insignificant Nazis. Malkie says Alba is nasty, xenophobic, racist and fascist. He forgot to say Alba members throw grannies off the bus, drink the blood of children and kill their pets. Apart from all that he used to like Alex Salmond but Salmond must throw the fascists out the party. Because if he doesn't throw the fascists out of Alba Salmond will lose all respect from decent Scots. Surely he cannot be saying you are a fascist James😂😂😂.
ReplyDeleteIs Malkie deranged or drunk? - take your pick. Malkie of course has full respect for a party involved in trying to fit up Salmond with a jail sentence. Malkie seems to think he is a decent Scot. Most Scots in my opinion would not find Malkie the least bit decent.
So once again another example of a party that is insignificant but still worthy of a silly monstering.
PS Malkie have the SNP or the police found the £600k yet.
As I'm still, just barely, in the SNP my view may not be valid to some but I tend to agree with you James.
ReplyDeleteWe need to build the over all independence vote by constant active campaigning via YES groups. As we progress the question which you have had the good sense to address will become less difficult. I voted SNP 1 and Alba 2 in May and will do so again in similar circumstances.
To put it bluntly the SNP needs to change or be replaced; Alba may prove to be the replacement but the pro independence vote is not sufficienly strong yet to risk splitting.
The most infuriating aspect, of course, is that the lack of a dependable pro indy majority is in large part due to the inaction of the present SNP leadership but we mustn't allow emotion to outweigh reason. Difficult and 'unfair' for Alba but that's our situation.
I'm not sure I can care about a unionist majority if the SNP don't, can't or won't do anything when they have a pro-independence majority. And, I'm not convinced having a pro-indy majority at Westminster has actually achieved much thus far - it might have, used the right way, but the SNP haven't. If anything, it's that ready ability to win huge swathes of FPTP seats because they are the main pro-indy party versus 3 parties splitting the unionist vote that's gotten the SNP so damn comfy in their current situation in the first place.
ReplyDeleteI think Col above is right - either the SNP deliver a referendum before the next Westminster GE as they have been promising for a few electoral cycles now, or we accept that the SNP are never going to rouse themselves and get on with what is supposedly their prime purpose, at which point Alba becomes the next best hope for independence.
Frankly if that means an electoral cycle where a pro-indy Westminster majority is lost then I think that might just have to be accepted as part of the process. Alba might ultimately need to entirely supplant the SNP, rather than merely play a Greens-style supporting role, and that may take time. Besides, not running against the SNP at Westminster gives the SNP free run to say whatever it wants about independence and then never actually threaten to deliver it, which is half the problem here, and the SNP have already made it abundantly clear that they are not welcoming Alba to the party, which essentially sets them up as rivals and not collaborators.
I suspect there's at least a few folk like me, who realise they've voted SNP for the last time because they've stalled sufficiently long enough that either they deliver this time or it will be clear it needs someone else.
If you're not convinced a pro-indy majority has achieved much so far, what on earth do you think a unionist majority will achieve? What do you think a unionist majority *did* achieve for the centuries (literally) we had it?
DeleteJame, there is ALWAYS a Unionist majority in Westminster no matter how the people of Scotland vote. Personally, I feel or see no difference in having Masterton Tory MP or Oswald SNP MP as my MP.
DeleteFor sure the SNP will feel a difference as they will get less money from Westminster with each MP they lose.
What did Sturgeon and Robertson do with their 56 out of 59 SNP MPs in 2015 - nothing. If that amount of SNP MPs in Westminster achieves nothing I will not feel guilty if Oswald does not get re elected for a second time at the next GE. I am done with the vote SNP at the next election for independence.
Alba are not a real party if they don't stand candidates in elections and are not doing enough for Indy.
ReplyDeleteAlba are splitting the vote if they put up candidates in the election and are harming Indy.
This is the sort of garbage that WGD numpties like Hamish100 and the mad liar Skier come up with. Yet they never have a problem with the Greens standing or not standing - numpties will be numpties.
We've owed East Pakistan for being robbed blind by the umpires in the 1999 World Cup. I was there and we were cheated.
ReplyDeleteNow a win over Oman or PNG and we've qualified. Hopefully a win over both and another bungles loss.
Not that I'm bitter or anything but I despise cheats.
You have to play whichever voting system is in place for a particular election, and support the party most likely to get us to independence. We saw the Yoons doing it to save Jackie Baillie's seat at the Holyrood elections. There are going to be some variations. In Scotland playing the system will come down to Nationalists vs Unionists. In England it may be Brexiteers vs non-Brexiteers. So for Westminster seats it has to be SNP to keep the Unionists out, at Scottish Parliament it has to be SNP at constituency level, and Greens or Alba for the regional list depending who is stronger in a region, and at local elections encourage voters to do as James suggests. The days of SNP, Greens, Alba acting as single entities has to end as the Unionists have caught on to the fact that they can also game the system by voting for the Unionist party that will most closely challenge a nationalist for a seat.
ReplyDeleteTory vote up??? White Settlers swamping Falkirk South obviously?? SNP vote up as they are no longer a threat to the precious Union??
ReplyDelete