Should Scotland be an independent country? (Redfield & Wilton Strategies)
Yes 48%
No 52%
Redfield & Wilton are a relatively new pollster, and as far as I can see this is their first ever full-scale Scottish poll on independence. That means there's nothing to directly compare these numbers to, although they're pretty much in line with polls from other firms in the late spring and early summer which suggested either a slim No lead or a dead heat. On the plus side, that means there's been no slippage for Yes, which is perhaps the most we can realistically hope for while the Scottish Government continue to shy away from campaigning for independence or firing the starting gun for a referendum.
The sample is close to being split down the middle on whether an independence referendum should be held within the next year: 40% are in favour and 47% are opposed. Naturally, most Yes supporters are in favour, which gives the lie to Councillor Hunter's notorious recent claim that Yessers don't want an early referendum. Once the time-frame is extended to the next five years, there is clear support across the population for a referendum.
You can still come across the odd zealot on social media who risibly believes that Alba - a party that is largely ignored by the media - is somehow, God knows how, responsible for the fact that we no longer have the outright Yes majority that we enjoyed for so long last year, and even into the start of this year. A supplementary question in the poll provides a somewhat more plausible explanation. Slightly more respondents say that the pandemic has strengthened the arguments in favour of the Union than say it has weakened those arguments. My guess is that the opposite result would have been obtained a year ago, and that it's the vaccine rollout that has changed the dynamic. But the story of the pandemic is far from over yet, and there's still the potential for the pendulum of perception to swing once again.
A very significant result is that Keir Starmer's personal ratings are now well into negative territory. Labour are the only party that can realistically depose the SNP as Scotland's leading political force, and that simply will not happen for as long as they have such a deeply unpopular leader.
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The above poll illustrates why Sturgeon is now unfit to be SNP Leader and the First Minister of Scotland. Indy should have at least a 15 to 20 point lead in such polls.
ReplyDeleteI want an Indy party that actually promotes Scots Indy. The present SNP isn't doing that and hasn't done it for years now. Sic Parcel of Traitors in a Nation.
Tend to agree with IainM - but rather, Sic Parcel of Complacent Devo-Nats in a Nation.
ReplyDeleteIt's all been said before but I've gradually changed my view of what is happening. Despite the impression given by their apathy on indy I think that the present SNP leadership (in which I now have no confidence) actually does want a form of independence.
ReplyDeleteSeems to me that the point is that they want indy on their own, centralised, 'managerial'terms. This means that they actually want to wear down and weaken the YES movement as it is outwith their control and unlikely to support their personal career ambitions, or the advancement of their over emphasised gender politics priorities,in an independent Scotland.
At present the only way forward seems to be building that independent, independence movement. So, get in there - build your local YES group, attract SNP members and never, never trust the motivations of the Sturgeon leadership again !
Yes, the only independence they consider is the one where they have, as now, all the power. That is why they react with such uncontrolled fury at every challenge to their power, and why they attack them with such vigour, undermining them with all the dirty tricks they have at their disposal - and as we have seen they have plenty.
DeleteQuite a sight - their horror at an actual independent independence movement, one they can't control, one which would extend the franchise to all citizens, one which write a constitution which would remove the SNP from the absolute control they have now.
I think both camps will be reasonable happy with this poll.
ReplyDeleteThe near global pro-incumbent government trend in polling is, I’d say, about risk aversion among rightly fearful voters living through the pandemic. No surprise to find the appetite for independence, the biggest change of all, restrained in this environment. Indeed, the fact Yes led so much last year was the striking outlier. The Tories really were managing the pandemic that badly, Scots preferred the alternative. And I don’t mean Sir Keir.
ReplyDeleteWestminster’s not out of the woods yet. How do those arguments for Union look come the return of austerity? Scotland, like Northern Ireland, is something they must risk losing or ditch their entire Tory worldview. Hard, hard cuts are not the way to love bomb Scots. And with Labour so down and out, now under both left and right wing leaders, the age old argument we should just hold on for a Labour government is as dead as that fanciful idea.
Where else are Scots to go? Everything’s so well aligned to pour ever more voters towards the SNP, in the hopes that someday they will indeed *do* something with the mandate of the nation.
Perhaps the figures should now be broken down to those who said, Don't Know, No and Yes. Then we can see which camp the settled view is. Proportioning the don't knows to those who said Yes or No distorts the figures. Having said that 48% would be a bit of a worry to the No side. Despite having almost most of the MSM in TV and press putting out negative stories every day to depress the support for Yes it is quite poor returns. The Yes side is in a good position for when the next referendum is called and we will come together to win it.
ReplyDeleteOnce again the annual GERS figures are coming along and once again the SNP do nothing about them. Remember the promise that Derek McKay would address this problem and produce a different report. Nothing but broken promises from the SNP.
ReplyDeleteI wonder what sort of horrendous figures/annual deficit the Britnats will claim for Scotland this year and future years bearing in mind Westminster can just allocate whatever level of debt they want to Scotland. With Covid there is now plenty of UK debt for them to pass on to Scotland/Wales/N.Ireland. Of course a lot of the debt is made up of corrupt Tory contracts to their pals.
GERS is a propaganda gift for the Britnats in which the SNP participate.
The SNP do not want independence. They just love the money they get from Westminster.
The news that six European nations have overtaken the UK in vaccination numbers and the delay and dithering by the JCVI on 12-17yo getting the vaccine opens up weaknesses for the SNP to exploit and get back over 50%.
ReplyDeleteOn the idea that Scotland couldn't do it on its own - Cuba managed to develop its own vaccine despite US sanctions and less resources than us. So thenidea is nonsense.
The first poll following the 2014 referendum indicate Yes on 49% (BMG/Herald t.ly/DWuO). This latest poll has Yes on a comparable (without stripping out undecideds) figure of 44% (Redfield & Wilton Strategies t.ly/cLAl).
ReplyDeleteThe three polls between the 2014 referendum and Sturgeon becoming SNP leader and First Minister averaged to a dead heat. The most recent three polls average to a four point lead for No.
Don't tell me Nicola Sturgeon has a strategy for independence.
I see Nicola Sturgeon was on the march on Friday. Not for independence of course. Looking forward to seeing her at the front of the next AUOB march.
ReplyDelete