We're now in the fog of war stage where rumours are starting to circulate, but it's difficult to know what to take seriously. I've heard enough to make me slightly jittery, though, so I went back and refreshed my memory about the opinion polls in the run up to the 2017 general election. Although the polls that year did overestimate both the SNP's vote share and their lead over the Tories, the degree of error was not all that huge. That's good news because it means there'd have to be a far bigger polling error for us to end up with a 2017-type result this time. So whatever happens I don't think it'll be quite as bad as that. The other thing about 2017 is that it was a pincer movement in which both the Tories and Labour made progress simultaneously - it's hard to imagine that happening after the results in England overnight.
I've also heard that there may be a high turnout. My theory has been that a low turnout would favour Alba as an individual party, but that a high turnout would be better for the pro-independence parties in combination.
* * *
You can catch up with Episode 7 of the Scot Goes Popcast, in which I speak with the Alba Party's Chris McEleny,
HERE.
Turnout is way up on 2016 more akin to 2019 GE. My inner city ward in Dundee is up 15% A friend in the Carse of Gowrie said turnout in the villages were over 50% and before they take in postal votes. She was pleased to see the amount of young people voting.
ReplyDeleteJesus. First thing I've read. 'Jittery rumours'. Coffee and positive thoughts...
ReplyDeleteLook at my link below, WarriorBadger. Might help [if it's correct]
DeleteKoala Raspberry Zipwire.
DeleteI think that sums it all up.
Including postal votes then reckoned to be over 60% turnout in Midlothian North.
ReplyDeleteAre there any estimates for seats being called?
ReplyDelete5.30PM for some of the Edinburgh Seats
DeleteInteresting article from John Robertson about regional variations:
ReplyDeletehttps://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2021/05/06/regional-variations-suggests-alba-may-do-better-than-zero/
Read it, and thank you. Hope there is some regional variation - but to talk of Alba getting 20 is madness mate. Keep 'em coming though!
DeleteI remain of the view that the SNP's playing down of independence and focus on baby box issues will not have inspired their voters and that the surprise will be on he downside. Brace yourselves for some SNP constituency losses I'm afraid
ReplyDeleteAdd to that the SNP denigration of Alba will mean sheeplike SNP voters wasting their list vote thus inviting in unionist list MSPS at the expense of indy supporters
ReplyDeleteErm, you've just attacked the SNP in two posts.
DeleteWouldn't that be expected to hurt their vote?
Skier, the election closed yesterday....
DeleteJust saying that if the SNP are down, then we can probably conclude that people attacking them will be partly to blame.
DeleteI'm gonna go out on a limb here and guess you haven't saved the anti-SNP trash talk till post-election, Am Braghadanach.
DeleteThe high voter turnout encourages me since older people tend to vote more anyway so a higher turnout is probably being driven more by young people, which bodes well for the pro independence parties.
ReplyDeleteActually, it's normally the older folks that always vote come hell or high water. Higher turnout generally means those that don't vote so often are taking part, e.g. the young and disaffected.
DeleteTurnout in Hartlepool down very sharply and look who won....
That's exactly what the post you replied to said
DeleteYes, you are right. I don't know why I've managed to write 'actually' when I meant 'Aye... so it sounds like I'm correcting...
DeleteTo busy trying to correct a report whilst watching for the latest election info and commenting!
Final polls have in recent years have always been pretty close to the mark. 2% overestimate on SNP constituency in 2016. Similar level of underestimate in 2019. Similar level of overestimate in 2017. Basically always MoE on the final polls the week before.
ReplyDeleteWhat's been clear ahead of this election is that unlike past elections, notably 2017 (rapid decline in SNP over the weeks approaching voting day), polling has been all but unchanged since March. Only some SNP to Green / Alba.
Scotland’s political parties are reporting extremely high turnouts across the country, with many polling stations showing record voting levels matching or exceeding the turnout in the 2014 independence referendum.
ReplyDeleteOne Labour source said the numbers were “stonkingly high” across the country. Anecdotal reports of unexpectedly high turnouts included one polling place in Gourock, a relatively well-off coastal town in Inverclyde, where the turnout hit 92%, including postal ballots.
ReplyDeleteAberdeen Donside turnout up from 51% to 58%.
ReplyDeletebrace yourself skier, those aren't baby box enthusiasts flocking to the polls....
DeleteThey won't be Tories either in Aberdeen Donside.
DeleteTories don't like baby boxes, but they're popular with most Scots. Very Scandinavian.
DeleteFor the first time in many many months i've had to take my high blood pressure medication , the poll results can't come quick enough , now where did I leave my worry beads ?
ReplyDeleteA quick thing on who benefits from high turnout - it depends. Lots seem to be speculating that it benefits the party of government, but if you rank 2016 results by turnout the SNP won every one of the 41 seats with *lowest* turnout, but only 3 of the top 10 with *highest* turnout
ReplyDeleteWhich partly reflects the fact that the competitiveness of a seat boosts turnout.
DeleteDeclaration of constituency results for the #Banffshire and #BuchanCoast constituency
ReplyDeleteElectorate – 58,816
Total votes cast – 33,075
Turnout – 56.23%
Declaration of regional votes cast:
Electorate – 58,816
Total votes cast – 33,073
Turnout – 56.23%
So if we have similar nationaly then less than 1 in 15k are spoiler their ballets. Good to know!
DeleteOh wait it's less regional than constituents. Okay. That's unexpected. Got it the wrong way round. But still confirms probably not much alba voters spoiling constuency. Good to remember this whole online shit is a bubble and the stuAnon folk do not represent the normal voters.
DeleteAberdeen Donside coming up. I'd expect that to be a poor indicator of how things are going nationally (at least for the SNP) due to the Mark McD stuff
ReplyDeleteOrkney beat them to it. Looks like the bulk of the increased turnout has gone to the SNP
ReplyDeleteFor what is is worth, it was instantly noticeable when doing last nights knock up in Stirling that people had already voted, or were going to vote. The impression was they wanted to let us us know they had voted SNP, at times we saw whole families going to the voting station. It appeared many young people engaged. The down side was we felt a trend towards the Green list amongst the younger vote. What this tells us I don't know, but we/SNP felt we got the vote out - and early !
ReplyDeleteOrkney isn't exactly what you'd call a bellwether seat, but I make that just under a 4-point increase for the SNP on their 2011 result
ReplyDelete2011?
DeleteSNP hold Donside
ReplyDeleteSeems Tories made some gains, but then there will still be hangover from brexit here that we didn't see in 2016.
DeleteSNP down in Donside by about the same amount they went up in Orkney!
ReplyDeleteIt's difficult to compare since 2016 is before brexit. Since then we had big swings to the Tories and some to Labour, then some reversal.
DeleteSo the SNP vote could have risen substantially of late, but is still down compared to 2016....
Definitely some tactical Tory voting going on there too!
DeleteIf the SNP vote drops from 2016 and the Tories do better under Johnson/Ross than they did under Cameron/Davidson, that would be a polling fail for the ages
ReplyDeleteThe Tories up 8 points in Donside, but Labour and LDs down only 4.3 points in total. So tactical voting isn't the full story.
ReplyDeleteIt's bizarre to see SNP folk celebrating this result on Twitter. Is it just spin, or was a swing against expected here because of the daft Mark McDonald controversy?
Uh oh. SNP down a notch in Na h-Eileanan an Iar too.
ReplyDeleteLabour up 9.7% in Clydebank and Milngavie, SNP down 2%.
ReplyDeleteDefinite tactical voting by britnats
ReplyDeleteWow @ the Con/LD swing to Labour in Clydebank. If this level of Unionist tactical voting keeps up when we get to the marginals it's going to get bloody
ReplyDeleteYes, but that's when a solid SNP list vote comes to play. Unionist tactical voting could mean a loss of a few constituency seats, but it'd also result in a few more SNP list results
DeleteSwinney holds on, surprisingly with a slight Con-to-SNP swing
ReplyDeleteHold's on sounds like my earlier 'actually'. :-)
DeleteA solid win with an increased share.
Murdo Fraser really is completely useless.
DeleteHold's on sounds like my earlier 'actually'. :-)
DeleteA solid win with an increased share.
Didn't mean to give the impression it was a squeaker. I did note that there was a swing to the SNP
Family Party? Sister Sledge?
ReplyDeleteSwinny sees an increased share in perthshire north.
ReplyDeleteSwinney up 0.9%.
ReplyDeleteEdinburgh west turn out 71%
ReplyDeleteEdinburgh central 63%
Labour absolutely crushed by the SNP in Dundee West. I'm going to stop making predictions.
ReplyDeletePerthshire North, Dundee West - SNP share increased - really difficult to make predictions re marginals, loads of tactical voting, turnout ten per cent up, SNP will probably finish with 46,47 per cent nationally - and with either an outright majority of 1 or 2 or 1 or 2 below - pretty much what the majority of polls predicted. For Greens and Alba we have to wait tomorrow evening anyway.
ReplyDeleteSNP hold Banff and Buchan.
ReplyDeleteBit of a disaster for the Tories given they did so strongly locally in 2017 and 2019.
Looks like a big swing from SNP to con for 2017/19, but then this reversing in a big way since then.
Some fisher folk still all at sea? Well done, Karen Adam.
ReplyDeleteIf the Tories fall to turn much of the NE blue like 2017/19, then the union is going backwards.
DeleteThey seemed to peak 2017, then went into retreat, so need to have a lot of blue up there today of they are still on the run...
Yes - this really is good result for the SNP - although I imagine Tories'll try to spin it as a big success. SNP won the most leave-friendly seat in Scotland.
ReplyDeleteSNP HOLD Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley (South)
ReplyDeleteI think where folk see the SNP as an obvious win they're taking their feet off the accelerator slightly.
Foot?
DeleteSolid hold for Bill Kid
ReplyDeleteConstituency: Glasgow Anniesland
SNP's Bill Kidd wins
SNP: 53% (+1)
LAB: 33% (+2)
CON: 11% (-3)
LD: 3% (-0.6)
Congratulations to Paul McLennan
ReplyDelete