That's by far an all-time record turnout in Clydebank & Milngavie.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) May 7, 2021
That Donside result is worrying, and probably more significant than Orkney.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) May 7, 2021
I struggle to imagine the SNP holding Banffshire & Buchan Coast after that Donside result.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) May 7, 2021
At least my Gaelic is now just about good enough that I knew Labour had lost before I heard the English translation. #sp21
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) May 7, 2021
A worryingly consistent pattern so far of the SNP being slightly down in every seat so far, apart from Orkney, which often deviates from national trends anyway. 45% nationwide would be perfectly OK, but probably wouldn't quite produce an SNP overall majority. #sp21
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) May 7, 2021
The thing about tactical voting is that it depends on there being votes there to squeeze. There's obviously a sizeable Tory support to be squeezed in the Milngavie part of Clydebank & Milngavie, but that isn't the case in a lot of seats where Labour start from second. #sp21
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) May 7, 2021
Thank God for that. I was worried about John Swinney's seat. His vote share is actually up - the first SNP increase in a mainland seat. #sp21
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) May 7, 2021
Yay, 4% increase for SNP in Dundee City West. Looking a bit more hopeful now. #sp21
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) May 7, 2021
The Great Escape: the SNP hold the most Leave-friendly seat in Scotland. #sp21
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) May 7, 2021
If the BBC try to spin that as a bad result, they're barking up the wrong tree. I was fully expecting the Tories to win Banffshire & Buchan Coast after the Donside result. #sp21
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) May 7, 2021
For context, the Tories hold the Westminster seat of Banff & Buchan and it was the one place where there was a swing from SNP to Tory in 2019. However close the Tories got today, however big the swing was on paper, the fact they lost is what matters. #sp21
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) May 7, 2021
Where the SNP incumbent has retired the SNP vote is down. The personal vote can be worth a few percent.
ReplyDeleteSNP hold Anniesland (first Glasgow seat). David Linden on Twitter is saying it's an increased majority, but Britain Elects report the following:
ReplyDeleteSNP: 52.8% (+1.1)
LAB: 32.9% (+2.4)
CON: 11.1% (-2.9)
LDEM: 3.2% (-0.6)
Which looks like a slightly reduced majority to me. But maybe my arithmetic is bad
If the turnout is well up, then the raw vote majority can go up while the percentage majority goes down.
DeleteIf turnout is up, then most seats will be held with an increased majority in terms of vote. It's only really meaningful if the percentage increases. But I guess he's just spinning
DeleteAlba on 2% on the list in Donside, apparently. I know I said I wouldn't make predictions, but I think they're done
ReplyDeleteI've heard a rumour of 4% in other areas. We'll see.
DeleteA seat actually changes hands! SNP gain East Lothian from Lab
ReplyDeleteAnother seat where the retirement of the incumbent (Iain Gray) seems to have helped the challengers
Another NE seat held by the SNP. Area had a lot of blue in 2017, but that retreated in 2019.
ReplyDeleteSNP hold Angus North and Mearns
And whoop whoop!
SNP's Paul McLennan wins - gain from Labour
SNP: 39% (+4)
LAB: 37% (-1)
CON: 27% (-3)
East Lothian's interesting - not much unionist tactical voting there - or there was enough Labour turning SNP to hold off Tories voting for Labour.
DeleteJAMES GIVE US AN OVERVIEW OF WHAT IS HAPPENING PLEASE
ReplyDeleteWings unable to unseat Sturgeon with his support for unionist sarwar.
ReplyDeleteSo the cancer at the heart of Scotland is free to spread and kill us all.
DeleteOK Stu
DeleteSome might say those calling most folk in Glasgow southside a 'cancer at the heart of Scotland' are the actual cancer.
DeleteLol. After all the build-up, Sturgeon's vote share in Southside fell by 0.7% and there was actually a swing from Lab to Con
ReplyDeleteAye, that all kinda went balls up. 0.7% is no effective change within sampling variation.
DeleteSo much for the 'hated Sturgeon'. Her honeymoon continues.
Not sure how Labour contrived to screw that up so badly. Sarwar turns out to be just another leader beloved by the Scottish media and literally no one else
DeleteSturgeon of course actually got considerably more votes than last time; 1.3x as many.
DeleteIn the USA there are people who claim they don't hate women but" don't Hillary." " Don't like Liz Warren, ya know" " can't stand Nancy Pelosi, just SOMETHING about her!" " No, I just don't like Kamala Harris, it's great we have a women VP but not her is she really black?" " Dianne Feinstein? Big No!". So they don't like any woman who talks or leads. It's the Same with Nicky. Best Party leader in the whole UK for years.but they don't like her because she...increased support for Indy and isn't calling a Referendum that Salmond said she couldn't call for 20 years because she wants to wait 2! But they don't hate women. They just always prefer a man.
DeleteSome decent SNP gains in recent results.
ReplyDeleteNo - the swing was from Con to Labour, but you can tactisise all you want if you know that there's no way NS's falling below 55-60 per cent there. It really isn't a seat where tactical voting can help.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I made the mistake of getting my results from the BBC rather than Ballot Box Scotland. Lab was actually up 8.5 points, Con down 7. Sarwar is not quite as spectacularly incompetent as I'd accused him of being. Apologies
DeleteCoatbridge and Chryston
ReplyDeleteFor personal reasons I am overjoyed with this [very positive] result. Fulton and your team: brilliant!
Tories keep Wennie in power. Probably the must disgusting news of the day. Scum.
ReplyDeleteHelp keep. Still scum
DeleteI think you have stronger feelings about Willie Rennie than literally anyone else in the universe
DeleteThat's another thing that's personal, Keaton.
DeleteApologies to all for my outbursts. The whisky's kicking in.
Better go.
Willie rennie states that Scotland ahs no democratic means of becoming independent.
DeleteHe also belongs to the party which covered up for Cyril Smith for decades.
He's scum.
So close in Shetland! LibDem slumps.
ReplyDeleteSNP grind the Tories into the dirt in Strathkelvin and Bearsden
ReplyDeleteWings people not taking the results well. Some are claiming electoral fraud. :)
ReplyDeleteUnionists of the "Wee Jimmy Krankie" type are making similar claims. Which is all a bit strange. The results so far aren't even particularly great for the SNP
DeleteI thought they wanted the SNP to do well in the constituencies?
DeleteSurely they should be please the SNP are doing just that so far?
If you think the Scottish Family Party would receive more votes than one led by Alex Salmond then you are the gullible one.
DeleteWe've already had electoral fraud by the media and their blackout of Alba and promotion of the 2 votes lie.
Wings said there was no electoral fraud in 2014. He was adamant about it, and that the No result was 100% accurate.
DeleteJust in case anyone questioned the 55% for no...
Just noticed that the very weird former SNP MSP Chic Brodie is standing in Ayr, in a pretty blatant attempt to scupper his former party there
ReplyDeleteAaaaand the SNP take Ayr
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThat's a great result in the Shetlands for the SNP.
ReplyDeleteA massive swing towards them giving record support. Looks like at 43% for pro-indy parties.
Bob Doris giving Sturgeon a run for her money in the 'who got the biggest vote share' competition.
ReplyDeleteSNP's Bob Doris wins
SNP: 59% (+3.5)
LAB: 30.5% (-1.3)
CON: 8% (-1.8)
LIBDEM: 2.5% (-0.4)
Whoop whoop. SNP take Ayr from the Tories.
ReplyDeleteAnyone cofident to call it? I'm not.
ReplyDeletemaybe confident, even?
ReplyDeleteList votes for Yes parties in Shetland could be interesting.
ReplyDeleteLucking I didn't listen to English blogsites and not vote SNP on the list. McAlpine will need my list vote.
ReplyDeleteOnly one incumbent has lost so far and that is in the Ayr seat. All new constituency incumbents from the 2016 intake seem to have increased their vote share.
ReplyDeleteRobertson takes Edinburgh central from the Tories.
ReplyDeleteBig, big win.
No it isn't.
DeleteWithout the greens spoiling it las time it would already have been a safe seat.
now we have Mr Jennifer Dempsie, the man who covered up the terrifying killer heels affair to so they could use as it as a smear, disgracing my parliament with all that will inevitably bring
The only good thing is it reduces the chance of the serial fraudster and part -time glasgow councillor being elected.
Tories seem really pissed off by the result. They're reacting just like you. It's almost like you are a....
DeleteStu Campbell is not happy.
DeleteSo the Rev Stu was correct about BPB being a waste of a vote, but saying it's people's own money to waste.
ReplyDeleteOur only hope now is for murrell to be brought down either by the court cases or some MP revealing which of her personal staff who committed perjury to have an innocent man imprisoned.
You mean Salmond's previous personal staff here.
DeleteOtherwise, how could they have got close enough to him for anything to have potentially happened?
It looks like Dumbarton's taken as well if Labour's asking for a recount.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking I should have cashed out my "no SNP majority" bet an hour ago
ReplyDeleteIn the regional vote in Glasgow Southside, Greens have almost half the SNP total. They're a close third to Labour, well ahead of the Tories, and have about ten times the LD vote.
ReplyDeleteLabour hold Dumbarton. Maybe my bet is safe after all
ReplyDeleteBallie attracting a decent Tory following, even though the SNP vote / share increased markedly.
DeleteQuite a big margin, too (1483). Maybe the recount rumours were bullshit
DeleteThey must've been - she wouldn't have ended up with that margin after the recount. It was reported as a fact really.
DeleteIs Dumbarton now Labour's only seat, apart from the Morningside one where the Tories always vote for them?
DeleteKeaton, Dumbarton itself leans SNP, it is the Tory parts of the Dumbarton constituency (Helensburgh, Cardross and the Rosneath peninsula) who Baillie has always relied on to see her home and dry.
DeleteThat is it for Indy. SNP is now so infiltrated by Yoons there will be no Indy in my lifetime. SNP voters inability to vote tactically like the Yoon voters has also scuppered Indy forever. SNP wont be getting any constituency votes from me ever again. This was the last time and the last straw.
ReplyDeleteThis what unionists are saying.
DeleteShares so far:
ReplyDelete47.0(+1.3)% SNP
21.7(-0.9)% Lab
21.2(-0.6)% Con
8.5(-0.6)% Lib
0.8(+0.4)% Grn
Hence the net gain of seats for the SNP.
And this is clearly with unionists turning out en masse to vote tactically to try and stop another indyref.
DeleteAnd I've just read the Guardian editorial on Scotland which was written to make the impression the SNP are really losing the election. The election started a bit odd with a couple of share losses but got much better afterwards. The absolute majority's still a real possibility. I hope we won't be deprived of it after the list votes are counted because Alba took 1.5 or 2 per cent.
DeleteTories in Morningside voting tactically for Johnson, and Tories in Helensburgh voting tactically for Baillie.
ReplyDeleteShows how desperate Labour have become, relying on "bourgeois" areas like these for votes.
Baillie won in Dumbarton courtesy of Tories in Cardross and Helensburgh.
ReplyDeleteJohnson won in Edinburgh South thanks to Tories in Morningside.
Labour are dependent on tactical tory votes to cobble a couple of constituencies.
Desperate stuff.