I've read some criticisms on Twitter that Alba supporters want Nicola Sturgeon to lose in Glasgow Southside. Well, that's certainly not the position of Alba as a party, or of their candidates - they're actively urging that people should vote for all SNP candidates on the constituency ballot, including Nicola Sturgeon. If anyone is saying anything different, they're just random supporters who do not speak for anyone but themselves. And, yes, I know that Stuart Campbell is one of them and that he's influential, but he's self-evidently a law unto himself and takes instructions from no-one. As the SNP have discovered themselves over the years with the manufactured 'Cybernat' nonsense, it's not possible to control the behaviour of every single supporter on social media, and to be expected to take responsibility for everything they get up to is completely unrealistic.
But it's worth repeating the point that Alba are actively encouraging people to vote for Nicola Sturgeon and other SNP candidates, and are even putting that advice on their leaflets. To the best of my knowledge, no other pro-independence party is doing that. If you asked the Greens whether you should vote for Nicola Sturgeon or Anas Sarwar in Southside, you'd probably get a neutral answer - you'd be told that they have problems with both the SNP and Labour. Even worse, the Greens are actually standing against the SNP on the constituency ballot in a dozen seats - and those are all seats they cannot possibly win, with the exception of a tiny outside chance for Patrick Harvie in Glasgow Kelvin. That means in eleven seats, the Greens are knowingly asking people to vote in a way that will make it more likely that an anti-independence candidate will win, and less likely that we will have a pro-independence majority when this election is over. And yet people still claim with a straight face that Alba are the problem, and that the Greens are the serious option for anyone who really wants to maximise pro-indy representation.
Just imagine if the Greens were held to the same standard as Alba. They'd be absolutely crucified. "You're neutral on whether Nicola Sturgeon or Anas Sarwar should be the MSP for Southside? Get in the sea! You want people to vote against Angus Robertson in Edinburgh Central and risk yet another Tory victory? Get in the sea!"
To be clear, it's entirely defensible for the Greens to say that independence is only one of a number of issues they care about, and isn't even the most important one, and that they therefore shouldn't be expected to back the SNP on the constituency ballot. But what they can't do is have it both ways and claim that they, and not Alba, are the party trying to maximise pro-independence representation in Holyrood. Quite clearly Alba are trying to maximise the number of pro-indy seats and the Greens are not. Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater would be happy enough if there's a Yes majority in the new parliament but that is not what their electoral strategy is geared towards producing.
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Another constructive suggestion for Stuart Campbell which he will doubtless ignore - instead of wasting the remainder of the campaign talking about nothing else but the trans issue, why not do a short sequel to the Wee Blue Book giving reasons for an Alba vote? You could do it as a PDF file, people could print off multiple copies and hand it out to their neighbours, family and friends. (But make independence the pamphlet's focus - you're not going to win many votes by banging on about women with beards.)
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You can catch-up with Episode 6 of the Scot Goes Popcast, in which I speak to Alba Party leader Alex Salmond, HERE (with video) or HERE (audio only). And if you find Scot Goes Pop's coverage of polls helpful and would like it to continue, I'm currently running a fundraiser HERE.
The Greens lost my 2nd vote over the issues you have raised. I have now voted by post SNP in the Constituency and ALBA on the list.
ReplyDeleteI did in the end give my list vote to the Greens. I did this because
ReplyDelete1) There is some merit in ensuring a large pro independence majority in Holyrood
2) The SNP got no list seats here last time and the Greens got one.
3) Uncertainty that Alba are going to push over the threshold in my area...they may do so in other regions.
However, I'm in no way certain I've made the right call. I can only hope that it pans out on the day.
I certainly haven't held Alba to a higher standard though. My decision is pragmatic. I think Alba might have launched their manifesto sooner but I appreciate they were late to the starting blocks.
As for Wings. I was there the other day and dipped into the comments below in Chris's latest cartoon. My voting choice apparently means I'm a raging pervert or something. However, I suspect that these comments are from people who are neither Alba supporters or independence supporters. I suspect they will be voting Tory or for Galloway's odd balls.
A good case well made. The Greens present as mischievous and without clear definition. As ever, they are certainly not an Independence party.
ReplyDeleteAs for the SNP, words fail me.
Graham's beard is most definitely a vote winner.
ReplyDeleteI think the Greens have occupied quite a comfortable space in Scottish politics for some time, as the only other pro-independence party, and have had quite an easy ride generally up until now. The launch of Alba totally changes that and seems to have put a rocket up their arses as well as the SNP's. They certainly seem more motivated during this election campaign than previous ones, and I don't think that's a coincidence. Personally, I'm quite enjoying the shake-up.
ReplyDeleteI would presume that that Walker guy from the Chinese hedge-fund firm would prefer Sarwar, or perhaps he doesn't care seeing as he lives in Hong Kong.
ReplyDeleteYour point over Stuart Campbell is well made. It's more Wangs over Scotland than Wings. Reading below the articles is now a depressing undertaking. There are Trump enthusiasts, conspiracy theorists, Carlson Tucker fans, homophobes, anti-vaxers, misogynists by the barrowload, and people who appear to have anger-management issues if you venture any disagreement. Stuart used to come down heavily on those who used abuse against the likes of Joanna Lamont, but he seems to have no issue with some of his more challenged followers calling Nicola Sturgeon a c**t. He even allows people who advocate voting for Murdo Fraser and Anas Sarwar. His current hobby-horse is about the age of consent, nudging closer and closer to QAnon's hobbyhorse about a ring of international pedophiles. Before long we'll be getting told by one of his acolytes that there's a fish-and-chip shop in Forfar run by Alyn Smith and Nicola Sturgeon where you can order up children for sex with a pickled onion on the side.
ReplyDeleteexcellent
DeleteThe completely cynical thing about the GREENS - and I am very keen on the climate crisis and environmental policies they hold- is that they need independence in order to be able to have any influence on their most important agenda. So of course they SHOULD be an independence party. Instead they are what they are, ostensibly an environmental party but also an identity politics party. Independence is not that important to their identity politics agenda, and the fact that they have dropped independence as a goal means I think that identity politics is now their key priority. They should probably change their name to The Light Greens.
ReplyDeleteTBH, Alba are the most 'identity politics' driven party of all, Greens too but less so than Alba, with the SNP the least, being the broadest church amongst Yes parties by a country mile.
DeleteThis is of course reflected in relative levels of voter support.
The more a party is into narrow identity based politics, the smaller its voter base will be.
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/identity-politics
In Alba's case the group strongly identifies as anti-GRA and very hard on pushing for an immediate iref it seems. We could add very anti-Sturgeon too, at least for a large section. As a result, many (but of course not all, such as James) within this quite closed group struggle to see beyond these issues and their deeply held beliefs on these topics, whereas SNP voters are much more focused on the wider picture and the acceptance of compromise that's often needed to move forward. For example, I'm not in the Salmond nor Sturgeon camp. Neither am I fixated with GRA, seeing both sides of the arguments. Likewise, I think going hell for leather when it comes to iref2 is not the best idea until we are as sure as we can be that Yes is how voters will vote. Softly softly catchee monkey rather than getting the claymore out of the thatch and painting the face blue the day after the election. Ergo, Alba are not offering anything really to me.
In fact Alba would have been more attractive to me if they didn't have any policy but independence. That's not the case though.
I imagine I'm close to the general Yes population.
As a result, the SNP will continue to be the main force behind a rising Yes vote as they attract softer Nos who will be put off by Alba's more hard line approach and 'narrow identity politics'.
That said, as independence draws closer it is only to be expected that both the Yes voter and Yes party base expands (upon indy, all parties in effect become indy parties). As the SNP widens to bring over former unionists that backed the EU etc, but are now looking to indy, so that will make it increasingly difficult to keep the 'dyed in the tartan' indy supporters who used to make up the bulk of the party back when they did well to get 20% of the vote, never mind 50%.
This isn't a problem. It's not really a split as such, but more a natural evolution which indicates an increasing imminence of Scottish independence.
For me it's simple. I live in NE Scotland. I'm fairly sure that the SNP are going to win all 10 constituency seats. I'm also fairly sure that the Tory vote is not going back to 2011 levels (37,681) but is likely to remain where it was in 2016 (85,848).
DeleteIn that scenario, a SNP list vote is almost certainly not going to win a list seat. Since the need for an "insurance" vote is very small, and since Alex Salmond will almost certainly win a seat, I would no longer be throwing my vote away on hopeless causes, but sending Alex Salmond back to Holyrood.
I'm very sure about one thing. If you asked DRoss, Sarwar or Rennie who they'd rather see in Holyrood - a seventh unionist or Alex Salmond - there would be little doubt about their answer.....
Well done James. This needed to be said and you made the case eloquently and powerfully. I ain't against the Greens - Greens do as Greens do and they obviously care deeply about the environment. Sometimes I wish they would care a little more about independence, even a fraction of what they care about the environment and other issues, but they don't. Greens will be Greens, I suppose.
ReplyDeleteGood question. The Greens dont even care about Green issues as far as I am concerned. The Transgender Brigade drove Andy Wigthman from the Greens for one.I think the issue of much needed Land Reform is now buried for a generation or more.
ReplyDeleteI could never vote greens because of the issues you mentioned . I am still in the SNP both votes camp as I have been a member and supporter for decades . However I live in Strathkelvin and Bearsden and I am struggling top see where my SNP list vote will matter
ReplyDeletescratching my head over why you are not thinking of voting Alba on the list. Surely another Indy seat will help?
DeleteI am thinking about it Cadogan. Despite what the numbers appear to suggest. The fact is that if all the SNP constituency voters had done the same on the list on 2016 . They would have won a majority. So I am sitting on a fence { with a sore backside because I have been here so long } . On one side I would hate to contribute to any unionist party getting a seat, and on the other I would hate it if jumping ship on the list went towards causing the SNP the chance of a list seat .
DeleteI do firmly believe that the treacherous self-serving greens standing in a dozen constituencies are a bigger threat to the SNP. As whilst the greens have next to no chance of winning any of them , splitting the pro-indy vote in those seats could be disastrous as the bulk of the SNP seats come from the constituencies . If i do change my list vote it will certainly be fore Alba
There must have been a lot of internal polling via Panelbase last week as I had invites to polling on 5 separate days last week but my views weren't taken as they had enough of my demographic by the time I got around to the emails. Perhaps a tracking poll.
ReplyDeleteJames, Com Res made a cock-up of their polls this year which might put your poll of polls slightly out.
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/WhatScotsThink/status/1384531068519280643
It winnae change PoP numbers because they're based on the latest polls from each pollster, and Comres have had two correctly weighted polls since the cocked up ones.
DeleteNo party polling for what seems a while.
ReplyDeleteFor such a crucial election, this seems like the least bothered people have been about one since I can remember.
The Greens and SNP are often spoken about on Twitter as "the SNP/Greens" by supporters, as in "the SNP/greens are headed for a majority and Alba won't change that" - I think because these days the SNP and Greens are quite similar culturally and in terms of policy. The Greens are just the slightly holier than thou version. If we get independence I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of the section of the SNP that's in charge moved over. That's why they're held to a lower standard.
ReplyDelete