1) Commitment to independence. Of the three main pro-independence options at this election, there's not much doubt that Alba has the strongest commitment to the goal. Some of the party's critics say "if you want to vote for a pro-indy alternative to the SNP on the list, you should vote for the Greens, because they at least have a track record of winning seats", but the Greens are quite open about the fact that a substantial minority of their members are anti-independence. That means almost inevitably that some of their candidates in this election must be unionists - in fact I recall someone left a comment on this blog a few weeks ago expressing concern that one of the Green list candidates in the Lothian region was on the record as being a UK federalist. Independence is also not necessarily a particularly high priority for the Green candidates who nominally support it. As for the SNP, I don't take the cynical view that they've become a devolutionist party - I do think the vast majority of SNP parliamentarians believe in independence, at least in principle. However, it's now possible to identify a small number of SNP MPs at Westminster who appear to have a different agenda - they're not necessarily actively opposed to independence, but they're more than happy for it to remain on the backburner for twenty or thirty years while they get on with their exciting careers in London.
2) Urgency about independence. A few years ago, the Glasgow SNP councillor Mhairi Hunter was asked what the Scottish Government would do if a Section 30 order was rejected, and she said "campaign some more for a Section 30 order". What if it's refused again? They would "campaign some more for a Section 30 order", apparently. At no point would anyone say "enough is enough" and try a different tack - they would just keep going pointlessly round in circles into infinity. Now, OK, Mike Russell's 11-point plan moved things forward a bit and raised the hope that the SNP might pursue a Plan B to at least a limited extent. And if the SNP were the only credible pro-independence option available, the logical thing to do might be to take a leap of faith and assume they're serious this time about the action they've proposed, even though in the past they've failed to follow through on a number of occasions. But now the voters have their own Plan B in the shape of Alba - an insurance policy just in case the real intention is for Ian Blackford to boom "Scotland will not stand for this!" at PMQs every week for the next five years, and then to ask for yet another mandate for a referendum in 2026, and then another in 2031.
3) Breaking the SNP leadership's monopoly on strategic thinking. Even if we get to a referendum, we need to win it, and there must at least be a question mark over whether that can happen on the safety-first, small 'c' conservative prospectus that the SNP currently seem to have up their sleeve. An Alba group in the Scottish Parliament will be a breath of fresh air, bringing alternative strategic ideas to the table that are currently going unheard.
4) Experienced, serious and moderate leadership. The reason why the increasingly desperate attempts to portray Alba as some kind of 'zoomer', 'extremist', or even 'far right' (!) group have failed to gain any traction whatsoever is that the party's leadership and candidates have a track record that cannot be matched by any of the other opposition parties. In Alex Salmond they have the longest-serving First Minister of Scotland, in Kenny MacAskill they have the former Justice Secretary of Scotland (and the man who bravely released Megrahi on health grounds in the face of huge pressure from the Americans), in Chris McEleny they have the former leader of the SNP group on Inverclyde Council, in Jim Walker they have a world-renowned economist, in Caroline McAllister they have the former SNP women's convenor, and in Lynne Anderson they have the former SNP equalities convenor.
5) Better candidates. Due to the SNP's controversial 'reserved places' scheme, the top place on the SNP list in each region is held by a very mixed bag of individuals, and in some cases their Alba counterparts are obviously superior. The clearest example of all is in Lothian, where it's a no-brainer that Kenny MacAskill would be a better list MSP than Graham Campbell.
6) There is no 'tactical' bar on voting Alba. As long-term readers know, I'm not a fan of 'gaming the system' or of attempts to 'vote tactically on the list'. But the irony is that the SNP's attempts to suppress the Alba vote actually amount to a call to vote tactically on the list - they're effectively saying "look at the opinion polls, they show that Alba votes might be wasted, so vote tactically for the SNP to ensure that doesn't happen". The problem is, though, that even if there's a danger of your vote being wasted, it only makes sense to tactically vote against your first-choice party if the party you vote for instead can offer some kind of guarantee that your vote will not be wasted - and that plainly isn't the case with the SNP in most regions. Of course it's possible that the SNP might nick a list seat in Central or in Glasgow, but is it certain? Is it even likely? Nope. It's six of one and half a dozen of the other - if you vote Alba, your vote may or may not be wasted, if you vote SNP, your vote may or may not be wasted, and if you vote Green, your vote may or may not be wasted. That being the case, there's no particularly strong reason not to vote Alba if they're your first choice.
I know some will argue that the Greens in Lothian are an exception, and that they can offer a virtual guarantee of taking at least one list seat in that region. But that just takes us back to the earlier problem, because the Green MSP in Lothian between 1999 and 2011 was the party's former co-leader Robin Harper, and he was/is viscerally opposed to independence!
7) Pressurise the SNP. If you have reservations about a governing party's current direction (in this case excessive caution on pursuing independence and an obsession with identity politics), a respectable and time-honoured tactic is to pressurise them into changing course by voting for a smaller party. If they want your vote back in future elections, they'll have to at least reflect on what made you and others like you feel strongly enough to look elsewhere. I know the stock counter-argument to that is "you can't gamble with the pro-indy majority by casting a protest vote", but that doesn't really apply for the reason given above - in most cases, there's just as much risk that an SNP list vote will be wasted as an Alba list vote.
* * *
I've had lots more constituency profiles in The National over the last few days - Moray, Banffshire and Buchan Coast, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch, Strathkelvin and Bearsden, Clydebank and Milngavie, Galloway and West Dumfries, Dumfriesshire, Glasgow (regional list), West Scotland (regional list), Glasgow Cathcart and Glasgow Kelvin.
* * *
You can catch-up with Episode 6 of the Scot Goes Popcast, in which I speak to Alba Party leader Alex Salmond, HERE (with video) or HERE (audio only).
Ranstam: I've deleted your comment because it blatantly misrepresented my position. I'm not sure whether you did that deliberately, but this is happening umpteen times per day and I simply don't have time to sit down and patiently set the record straight on each and every occasion.
ReplyDeleteI will be voting snp on both votes, simply because i dont like who are involved with the alba party
ReplyDeleteIts as simple as that
I don’t think the SNP have gone soft on independence but Alba will certainly want it done in a hurry so perhaps the best scenario for Pro-independence voters would be:
ReplyDelete-SNP just short of overall majority.
-Greens not quite enough seats to form a majority with SNP.
-Alba with more seats than Greens so they will be able to force the SNP to act faster with the balance of power.
For what it’s worth though I’m certain the SNP and Greens will have a combined majority, even if SNP fall just short on their own. So Alba will be an irrelevance because SNP will work with the Greens.
That may be true. But in that case, if independence isn't progressed and we're stuck with a hugely damaging Brexit and WM taking powers from Scotland while the SNP and greens bugger about with divisive and bad legislation instead, Alba will there to stand on constituencies, and for WM next time around. And SNP MPSs unhappy with that can cross the floor to them as well. That in itself gives me some re-assurance as prior to Alba's emergence I was utterly depressed and , for the first time in my life, not intending to vote.
DeleteSorry but they wont be an irrelevance because they will be there, and that alone will put pressure on, and that as they say will be their "starter for ten"
ReplyDeletethis was a reply to union 2.0
DeleteI meant they would be an irrelevance in terms of the government needing them for votes, because the SNP would almost certainly prefer to combine with the Greens on this.
DeleteWhen is all the manifestos coming out, needed before I vote?
ReplyDeleteI hope you have some bodyguards James and that you have grown another thick layer of skin as the SNP Wokists will be coming for you armed with sharp surgical implements.
ReplyDeleteFor me, the big appeal of Alba has nothing to do with their independence strategy. I don’t believe there exists a viable strategy that can force an unwilling UK government to facilitate a referendum or outright independence. It’s their promise of a shift away from identity politics. Its little coincidence that this became such a focal point for the SNP during a time when they were in competition with the Greens as the only serious pro-indy alternative. If they have to compete with a party that is moderate on social issues going forward that could drive them towards a more mainstream position.
ReplyDeleteI always said I might consider a list party involving Salmond. However, when he joined unionists in falsely (as far as I could see from all the evidence, and which proved true) accused the FM of breaking the ministerial code on multiple counts while he planned the announcement of this new party, that kinda went oot the windae. Sorry, but Salmond utterly f**ked up here for me, and he probably strangled Alba at birth by doing this. I really do hope he's not been chatting to Wings all along about this.
ReplyDeleteI would have also been more keen if Salmond was just a candidate and it was a 'Yes Scotland' type list party. I suspect the public would have been too.
The endorsement from Wings these days is like the kiss of death and Alba is attracting some really unpleasant cheerleaders. Pity, as it's also attracted some decent folk who want it to be a 'Yes Scotland' type party.
Anyway, I'm South of Scotland and while I'm confident of Christine Grahame being a shoe in where I am, I'd like to help ensure my fellow SNP voters across the borders are represented even if their constituency vote is binned due to a Tory FPTP win. That, and I'd like to see McAlpine back, much as the likes of Wings wants her out. So, barring any unlikely last minute developments, I will be SNP + SNP.
That aside, I do think Alba voters should be represented, so I wish them well enough in getting some candidates, as I do the greens.
Once again, I self-evidently hold no brief for Stuart, but I am aware of no evidence that he "wants Joan McAlpine out". He would almost certainly be pleased if she's re-elected. What you actually mean is he's supporting another party, ie. if you vote SNP in the Highlands & Islands you must "want Andy Wightman out". In most cases it doesn't mean that at all.
DeleteSince it isnae STV-PR, I can only vote for or against SNP on the PR list. So if I vote other than SNP, I am voting against them / against McAlpine being elected. Disnae matter what I might claim tae 'want'. Words mean nothing; vote means all.
DeleteWings has advised me to vote against reelecting Joan McAlpine I understand ('Alba on the list'). If he wanted her re-elected, he'd advise folks, me included, to vote SNP-SNP.
Which is a convoluted way of saying "yes, if you vote SNP in the Highlands, you must want Wightman out". And that's just silly.
DeleteIt is voting against Whightman.
DeleteClaiming you 'want someone in parliament' while you vote against them is what's silly.
I'm happy with my point, which is that I think folk hypocritical to sing the praises of e.g. Joan McAlpine while advising me to vote against her in the election. We can get pedantic about how I phrased it, but it doesn't change anything.
No, your own claim was closer to pedantry than mine. Although now might be high time for a point of true pedantry - it's WIGHTMAN, not WHIGHTMAN.
DeleteYougov UK Scots Sample.
ReplyDeleteWestminster Intention
52% SNP
18% Con
13% Lab
7% Lib
4% Green
3% RUK
2% Other
Steady as she goes.
However, it's now possible to identify a small number of SNP MPs at Westminster who appear to have a different agenda - they're not necessarily actively opposed to independence, but they're more than happy for it to remain on the backburner for twenty or thirty years while they get on with their exciting careers in London.
Whit, like Cherry and her shadow cabinet aims? ;-)
Luckily, even if they exist, they don't matter as they're not decision makers on indy. It's a matter for MSPs.
Bit pointless to pretend they don't have influence - of course they do. One or two of them are senior spokespeople.
DeleteThey won't be voting on any referendum legislation is what I mean. They could all be against iref2 but could not stop it going ahead if MSPs are for it.
DeleteAnd Alba parliamentarians are concentrated at Westminster, with a reluctance to give that up for Holyrood. ;-)
DeleteEr, simple question: how do you explain the fact that they're both standing for Holyrood, then? You don't really think these gags through...
DeleteAre they resigning their Westminster seats?
DeleteIf so, I retract.
Yes, I'm quite sure that if they're elected in May, they'll stand down from Westminster when their term ends in 2024. Retraction gratefully received.
DeleteOch maybe I'm too moralistic James.
DeleteBut lets not put anyone on high horses. Too many folk been doing that for Sturgeon vs Salmond etc. It's a wee bitty cheeky IMO for Alba folks to attack SNP for apparently wanting to hold onto their wee seat in the palace on the thames while they dinnae seem too keen tae gie them up either!
As far as I'm concerned, the mair seats we can prevent unionists from occupying, the better. But nae getting hypocritical...
Urgency.
ReplyDeleteBorn in Scotland:
2001, 87.13%.
2011, 83.32%
2021, probably under 80%
My wife was born in France. Voted yes last time and will do so again. Spends time persuading other French folk she knows to yes.
DeleteSkier, that's great and more power to your wife's elbow, but how many of the 200 thousand EU citizens resident during IndyRef1 have now left? Promises were made to hold IndyRef2 once BREXIT terms were known but there was still time enough to keep our place in the EU. The explicit promise and mandate that it won are now meaningless. This is the reason many EU citizens have given up hope and left Scotland for good. I have 5 close friends who have already left, so that means your wife needs to secure 5 yes votes from her no voting French pals just to break even...
DeleteThe number of EU citizens / foreign nationals in Scotland is rising while it falls in the rUK. I suspect we are seeing EU citizens remaining here more while others move from England to avoid racism and in the hope of a Yes vote.
Deletehttps://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/A2EF/production/_117611714_london_01-nc.png
Also, evidence suggests a lot of Scots are leaving England to return to Scotland due to brexit and rising anti-Scottish sentiment south of the border.
Of course the 2001 figure Robert notes was a product of the mass economic emigration out of Scotland during the 1980's and 90's due to the decimation of Scotland's economy.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/15/Mid-year_Estimates_of_Scotland%27s_Population_54-14.png/500px-Mid-year_Estimates_of_Scotland%27s_Population_54-14.png
That naturally resulted in a high Scots born%; people didn't move to Scotland, they left in search of a better life.
I don't think that's something we should aim for personally.
Do you have evidence that the population of EU nationals is growing in Scotland and not just shrinking slower than in the rest of the UK? I hope you are right (and I am wrong) but my personal experience, and that of other folk I know seems to contradict the idea that the EU population has grown in Scotland since BREXIT. Hope to be proven wrong, so any evidence for what you say would be great.
DeleteYour link is for 'Foreign Born' not EU nationals. Something that is very different as I am sure you are aware. 'Foreign Born' non EU citizens have not had their lives turned upside down by BREXIT and they have not been given empty promises of help when they were most vulnerable. As I say, I hope you are right but it certainly doesn't feel like that on the ground...
DeleteI'm an active member of the SNP.
ReplyDeleteWe all know that some in the upper echelons have become corrupted by position and salaries as the party has changed from the vanguard of a cause to a weilder of (some) power. This is inevitable. The Labour Party had been locked in a cycle of this bureaucratic careerism and attempts to refind it's roots for a century.
The cause of independence has stalled. It's still effective at convincing doubters, when circumstances (eg Covid) allow but now that indy has mass support it has hit the brutal reality of British state self interest.
Neither YES or NO knows how this will be resolved. A bigger indy Holyrood presence is the best available way to apply pressure on the British state in the short term. Alba, if the polling numbers are there in a couple of weeks, will be the best way to achieve that enhanced majority. More indy MSP's will also pressurise our own careerists. The rest of the argument is irrelevant.
Watch the numbers - if 5%+ Alba looks like a runner then do it ! (Except in the south and maybe Highland.
There are currently two Alba MPs at Westminster, so we can all clearly see their influence, right now.
ReplyDeleteWow! Bullseye!
ReplyDeleteSNP/Alba in the NE
ReplyDeleteI would have more respect for Alba if they stood down their candidates in South of Scotland. It has to be SNP 1 and 2 here.
ReplyDeleteWhy? Joan is second on the list with a woke in first place. Get Joan in on the constituency vote and exclude the woke (self declared disabled candidate).
DeleteSNP/ALBA for all the reasons in the article but above all for me - Women's Rights.
It's the positive discrimination that's stopping me voting SNP on the list. As a disabled professional, it would destroy me to think that my position in life was based only on me being disabled. All discrimination is abhorrent. Whilst I agree that disability can hold people back, it's discrimination that is the cause. Changing the type of discrimination doesn't solve that. So nope, I need an alternative in SoS (although still not sure who).
DeleteI would have more respect for Alba if they stood down their candidates in South of Scotland. It has to be SNP 1 and 2 here.
ReplyDeleteWell said James, I'm voting Alba its the right thing to do for Scotland and its people.
ReplyDeleteAre Kenny MacAskill and Neale Hanvey resigning Westminster seats if they get elected or are they still wanting to keep that 'exciting Westminster career path' going?
ReplyDeletePersonally given they already have seats and a salary, unless they are planning to do this, shouldn't people maybe give votes to another Yes party candidate in May to 'maximize the number of Yes parliamentarians' we have? Folk holding two seats reduces this and prevents new talent being given a shot / getting experience.
Who cares... You just want fake yes elected to shore up snp position of power in unionist Scotland not real yes alba debating on the territory it needs to be on.. Boring party hack.
DeleteScotland should not enter into any agreements before independence. The Westminster Government cannot be trusted.
ReplyDeleteJames, what do you think the potential impact of the greens standing in a dozen constituency seats could have. I am a bit worried about the potential for splitting the pro-indy vote. This is how Ruth Davidson got her seat in 2016
ReplyDeleteIt goes without saying that the SNP’s prospects are reduced and (depending on whether it is an area with a large Green vote) potentially substantially reduced - particularly where a party other than Labour are their main challenger (Labour tending to be only slightly less popular as a second choice than the SNP among Green voters).
DeleteIt's clear from what has been declared as the Alba Party's policy that from the very start of the new Parliament they would put forward a motion to start negotiations with WM on Independence. This is not a declaration of Independence but the start of negotiations. The motion would be discussed. What justification for not starting these negotiations would be put forward by the SNP? The whole level of debate towards Independence would change in the chamber would it not?
ReplyDeleteJeez. Wings is utter gutter politics.
ReplyDeleteAm I seriously supposed to believe that this international feminist organization:
https://iwhc.org/
Is arguing for pedophilia here:
https://iwhc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Beijing-25-Feminist-declaration.pdf
It seems to be they are rather seeking the very opposite; that women, including underage women globally have the right to refuse consent to sexual contact. In some countries girls are married off and husbands have an effective right to rape.
Only someone deeply, deeply sick could try to twist this.
I do think e.g. Stonewall talks some horseshit about gender identity (I'm trans non-binary by the definition on their website), but seriously?
The Ferret fact checking site takes issue with Campbell's website.
Deletehttps://theferret.scot/claim-snp-funding-paedophile-charter-groups-ffs/
If this continues, many will find it difficult to support Alba on 6th May. We are better than this.
I think the wording of the lines referenced in the somewhat ironically named "Feminist Declaration" are open to interpretation . Firstly the WHO defines adolescent as between 10-18yrs
DeleteVerbatim quotes from document Section 14a and section 14g
"including laws limiting legal capacity of adolescents, people with disabilities or other groups to provide consent to sex "
"End the criminalization and stigmatization of adolescents’ sexuality, and ensure and promote a positive approach to young people's and adolescents sexuality"
Having rinsed the "trans debate" over the last couple of years he clearly think he's onto a winner having discovered that as well as believing that the SNP want men to be able to rape women in bathrooms, his followers will also believe that they want to legalise paedophilia.
DeleteSNP and ALBA for me Dundee.
ReplyDeleteSNP both votes gives LIST seats to a unionist dozens of them look at best evidence which is 2016
Thank you for setting out such a strong case, James.
ReplyDeleteAgree with #BothVotesYes interesting reading comments why people say its wrong, still waiting for a positive point of view why my decision is not going to work for the people of Scotland. Enjoyed reading the article, being well received on Yes FB sites I have posted it on.
ReplyDeleteI'm getting pretty sick of people using the perhaps misguided comments by *one candidate* to rubbish an entire political party.
ReplyDeletePlanning to hold the other parties to the same standard?
Or is it just Alba that must be perfect?
Patrick Harvie has called people that have concerns about possible changes to the law that might affect women-only spaces *bigots*
Personally I find that utterly disgusting.
And from a party leader!
Where are all the shrill calls for people not to vote for the Greens due to this filthy slur?
The confected outrage is wearing pretty thin. The great thing is I doubt most Scots voters will be swayed by anti-Alba online echo chambers.
Vote Alba on the regional list!
Recent years in power have conclusively proved Nicola Sturgeon and her SNP can not be trusted to deliver independence. Time has blatantly been wasted; mandates have been studiously ignored.
ReplyDeleteIt is therefore imperative we elect as many Alba MSPs as possible in May in order to put much-needed pressure on her and her party to hold a referendum on independence in the very near future, whether Britnat Westminster agrees with it or not.
Her election announcements have been, as usual, riddled with the lawyer's disease of weasel words and craven caveats; their integrity on a par with a Boris Johnson vow of fidelity.
No referendum until the covid crisis is over! she sanctimoniously declares, knowing full well covid will be with us, in some form or other, for ever and a day. And therein lies her sickening get-out clause.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19225086.boris-johnson-told-force-indyref2-mid-pandemic-prevent-yes-victory/
DeleteBoris Johnson told to force indyref2 mid-pandemic to prevent Yes victory
SENIOR Tory ministers believe Boris Johnson should push Scotland into a second independence referendum while the pandemic still rages in order to secure a victory for No, according to reports.
Snp AND ALBA for me (and ALBA is the one I'm excited about).. And I'm in North East so I'll be electing Alec.. And for those that don't like it.. Git it up ye
ReplyDeleteWe don't understand the concern over "wasted list-votes" for Alba. As long as your party gets roughly 5 percent in your region, it'll get a seat. So all list-votes count.
ReplyDeleteThe exception is where a party has more constituency seats than its list-vote share allows it, and this may happen to the SNP in some regions. In those cases the SNP will get zilch list seats, so your SNP2 vote will be wasted. In those regions, Alba - assuming it gets its 5 percent - will hoover up list seats like there's no tomorrow.