Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 50% (+1)
No 50% (-1)
Incidentally, the last poll but one from the Scotsman series was the notorious #Matchettgate fake poll which purported to have Yes on 48% and No on 52%. That's the problem with pulling a stunt like that - all you succeed in doing is making the later polls look better for Yes.
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 49% (+1)
Conservatives 23% (-)
Labour 18% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-2)
Conservatives 23% (-)
Labour 18% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-2)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 40% (-)
Conservatives 21% (-3)
Labour 18% (-)
Greens 9% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+1)
Alba 3% (+3)
We've now had four Holyrood polls that included Alba as an option, and all four have shown the party registering on at least 3% - enough to put it in the mix for one or two seats as long as its support isn't spread too evenly across the country. As I pointed out last night on Twitter, at the inaugural Scottish Parliament election in 1999, the Greens took one seat on 3.6% of the vote and the SSP took one seat on just 2% of the vote. Official seats projections from polls will not show that sort of outcome for Alba because they will assume an even swing - but in practice an even swing is very unlikely to happen.
However, because the official seats projection for today's poll is showing Alba on zero seats and the SNP falling slightly short of a majority due to a lack of list seats, the argument is being made that Alba votes are wasted and that Alba supporters should return to the SNP on the list for tactical reasons. That could be very misguided, because there's a core of Alba's support that is completely alienated from the SNP - those people are not going to go back, and if we want to make sure their votes aren't wasted, the more viable course of action could be to build on Alba's support and get it to the 5-6% needed to win a decent number of seats.
* * *
Another poll which shows the SNP edging up on the constituency vote since hitting a low point after Sturgeon was falsely accused of breaking the ministerial code. I have them averaging 50(+1)% now, or rather 49.5(+1)%...
ReplyDeleteThis is positive as they slowly edged down ahead of 2016, and rather rapidly ahead of 2017!
As things stand, if maximising Yes seats to get is the goal, then the 3% Alba 'tactical' votes would be better going for SNP or Green, potentially yielding another 3 seats or so rather than zero.
Of course there's a few weeks yet.
Another poll is coming- this time from Opinium for Sky News. They are like buses at the moment. Nothing then all together.
Deletehttps://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1380096824090955776
I smell fear. It is fear that the SNP will not get a majority on the Constituency vote alone despite the fact the opposition in Scotland is incompetent or in the case of the Greens obsequious. It might be the Wokist Greens that will stop the SNP getting a majority of on the Constituency vote alone.
DeleteIt might be the pro Indy Alba Party that will provide the only competent opposition to the SNP at all. It is no wonder I sniff the rank stench of fear from SNP and Unionist Parties alike.
I've personally said I'd be happy enough with just a pro-indy majority, with either the Greens or Alba needing to side with the SNP to pass votes.
DeleteIt's Alba that have called for a 'supermajority' with the SNP having a majority alone via the constituency, meaning they could do whatever they liked, ignoring the Greens + Alba.
I don't disagree factually with your analysis but about the result of a party getting 3% but this was true of the other pop-up parties, and their likely disillusionment with the SNP... but you recognised the folly in them.
ReplyDeleteThat's rubbish - the other pop-up parties would never have got anywhere close to 3%, let alone 6%. That's not a valid comparison at all.
DeleteAnd if Alba were consistently polling at or around 6% then the case for trying to gather support behind them would be far stronger... but if it stalls under 5%, is the SSP not a reasonable comparison?
DeleteWhat's your take on the 'SNP majority threatened as Alex Salmond's Alba Party could take key votes' headlines?
ReplyDeleteI still do not believe there are sufficient voters out there who can be swung to Alba to reliably hit the numbers required to win seats. I agree with your point that many Alba voters will not "go back", but it swings both ways and the pool of voters who would even consider switching to Alba is, I believe, insufficient to make it anything better than a very risky endeavour...
ReplyDeleteBut let's assume that the pool of swingable voters is big enough to make it worth pushing for; at what stage then, if Alba are still struggling, do your cut your losses and say 'look, this isn't working, everyone who was going to vote for Alba should head on back to the SNP or Greens'? A day before the election? A week? Two weeks? I'll guarantee you that Salmond will never say it. The whole venture looks like a very bad gamble to me.
Of course that moment will never come, for the reason that you conceded yourself - people have no intention of going back (and they'd be even less likely to go to the Greens).
DeleteI conceded that "many" of the current 3% who intend to vote for Alba will not "go back" (I don't believe many of them would have voted SNP in the first place), but there are probably a significant number who would, as well as the persuadables you think can be used to build Alba support. They would return, presumably, if it became clear that Alba were unlikely to succeed (or possibly even damage the indy vote). Even if you believe Alba can drag themselves over the line, it seems very reckless to me to pursue this without some sort of exit strategy, given the numbers so far.
Deletethe more viable course of action could be to build on Alba's support and get it to the 5-6% needed to win a decent number of seats.
ReplyDeleteI understand why some want Alba to be a success; there are a number of reasons for this, not just that they don't feel at home in the SNP. But Alba should not have gone down the 'vote for us tactically' route IMO.
Tactically speaking, if we are basing how we vote on the assumption that 49.5% SNP in the constituency is what's going to happen, we must also assume that 3% Alba is too as things stand, and that an Alba vote will be wasted, at least tactically (it's different if your heart is for Alba).
The thing about polling is, is that you can 'vote' safely for small parties knowing you won't waste your vote. As a result, little parties often poll higher than they get on the day. So 3% might even be optimistic.
Anyway, there's time yet. But if Alba keep pushing the tactical thing, they will need to advise people to vote SNP/Green on the list come voting day if polls have not changed. Otherwise, they will appear hypocritical and like they were misleading people all the time about their motivations. They are painting themselves into a corner here.
It's why I've advised against the whole 'wasted vote supermajority' stuff as it can backfire so easily. 'Vote for us because you want us in government' can never be wrong by contrast.
Opinium
ReplyDeleteConstituency vote:
SNP 53% (+7)
Con 21% (-3)
Lab 18% (-2)
Lib Dem 6% (NC)
Regional list vote:
SNP 44% (+2)
Con 22% (NC)
Lab 17% (-2)
Green 7% (NC)
Lib Dem 5% (NC)
Alba 2% (NEW)
Yes 51 No 49
ReplyDeleteFull data tables for Opinium poll.
https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-scottish-parliament-voting-intention-1-april-2021/
Opinium say "For this wave we have removed the Greens from list of options prompted for in the constituency vote, to align with the candidates standing in individual constituencies."
DeleteI assume this means they do prompt for Greens in the constituencies where they are standing?
Either way, does anyone else do this?
They would for constituency polling, but not national. Statistically it won't make much difference; will be well within error.
DeleteI imagine they will definitely still have 'other' as an option, so Green voters can still correctly respond.
DeleteHaving Green on the main prompt if Green are not standing in most constituencies is likely to cause notable error.
I took part in this Opinium poll. Yes they prompted for your constituency before they started asking questions. There were questions on what we thought of all the Scottish political leaders, suggesting that this was a Scotland-specific poll
DeleteAs you say James, there are voters not going to go back to SNP from Alba. We know why AFI and ISP were formed, people who wanted an indy party but could not vote SNP. Those 2 parties stood down to give Alba a clear run. If a 2nd indy party is not sucessful in electing MSPs, where do their supporters go, whats going to happen.Is Alba going to be here in 5 years time, so many questions not being asked.
ReplyDeleteAs someone living in the North east who will vote SNP on the constituency but isn't particularly happy with the party, and wants to maximise the pro-indy MSP count, I have the choice of voting Green or Alba.
ReplyDeleteCan anybody give me a good reason why I should vote for one over the other? Which one is most likely to gain a list seat? From what I see so far, it's the Greens.
The Greens were just a whisker short of the threshold in the NE in 2016 on 5.9%. Polling a couple of % higher than their national share this time around so a good chance of crossing the threshold this time and picking up a seat in the NE.
DeleteMore difficult to say for Alba because we've no past reference or regional level polling. Regional subsets of Scottish polls are not much use because they are generally not weighted by region.
DeleteMy current PoP plot:
ReplyDeletehttps://drive.google.com/file/d/1rJ2YJCw6njeTZmaI_Se-iZPGcD00ycip/view?usp=sharing
"Access denied"
DeleteTry now. Think I didn't share properly before. Works for the wife now.
DeleteWorking now, cheers.
DeleteDoes anyone know if we are likely to see 'Regional polls'. Would these help the SNP/SNP versus SNP/Alba debate?
ReplyDeleteI don't recall seeing one during the previous Holyrood elections, just sub-samples.
DeleteActually the Greens got 4.9% last time in the NE, so not quite as close to the threshold as suggested. I'm also swaying between all 3 pro independence parties when it comes to my NE list vote. Good to start with the correct facts though, so worth picking up on that innocent typo from SS!
ReplyDeleteSurely whether the SNP gets 40% or 43% on the regional ballot is immaterial if their constituency support is at 49%. So I sincerely doubt that it would benefit the SNP at all if all Alba voters voted for them instead.
ReplyDeleteSNP seem to ranging between 49% and 53%. If they get 51% on the day I'm guessing that the chances of getting anything other than a couple of list seats in the South are slim.
ReplyDeleteWhat is the seat prediction on the Opinium poll?