Thanks to Marcia for pointing me in the direction of the latest independence poll, which appears on the Express website. She billed it as "not by a traditional firm", which is true, but I've just checked and incredibly it turns out that Find Out Now are members of the British Polling Council. God-awful name, but who are we to quibble when the numbers are as good as these?
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Find Out Now / Express)
Yes 48%
No 44%
Obviously the above figures are before Don't Knows are stripped out. I can't find the numbers without the Don't Knows, but a crude recalculation suggests they'll be roughly Yes 52%, No 48%.
Good, we will see the data sets soon. I posted this on the previous thread just as you opened this thread.
ReplyDeleteOpinium Poll for the Observer.
The Scottish sub-sample for Westminster this week is:
SNP 54
Con 25
Lab 16
LD 3
GRN 2
Usual caveats for a sub sample but gives an indication how the parties stand in relation to public opinion. The sub sample had 30% of the Scottish sample claim to have voted Tory in 2019 when the actual percentage was 25%. So a slight over sampling of Tories.
That looks about right. There were quite a lot of council by-elections in March with most of them showing sizeable increases in the SNP's share of the vote.
DeleteResults of the survey suggested 48 percent of Scots would vote yes.
ReplyDeleteJust 44 percent thought Scotland should remain in the Union and voted no.
The remaining eight percent were undecided and said they did not know.
The field work for the survey was conducted before Alex Salmond announced his new pro-independence Alba Party on Friday afternoon
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1415512/Nicola-Sturgeon-news-SNP-scottish-election-latest-independence-poll-survey-alex-salmond
When you read the article, it states Scottish adults were polled. Does that mean 16-17 were not? If so, then the numbers may be even better for independence.
DeleteCan we expect any more polls in Yoon Press on Sunday?
ReplyDeleteThis is what matters, not a mythical unionist required 'supermajority' for indy.
ReplyDeleteIt is interesting that the people have to lie to attack Alex Salmond, and also Lie to defend Mrs Murrell.
ReplyDeleteWhy would you be unable to tell the truth about the girlfriend battering perjurer and serial Ministerial Code breaker?
Why are they incapable of telling the truth about the actual accusations, Salmond's defence and the overwhelming mountain of evidence that 9 women all answering to Herr Murrell conspired to imprison an innocent man?
PS... Why has women A not apologised to Alex Salmond for trying to get him drunk and engage in sexual acts, probably for blackmail purposes?
It is the world we live in now PeeJay. It will be a daily tirade of smears against Salmond because they arent Indy believers for one. We have had a day poison from people who should know better. Angus Robertson for one and from unnamed SNP spokespersons and Sturgeon.
DeleteWhat a pile conspiracy theorist tripe.
DeleteSo you are telling us that if we don't agree the Alex Salmond we are not true Independence supporters. Grow and get real ffs.
The Salmond brand it at best tainted but for me toxic. I might yet vote Green on the list but, rest assured, will not be voting Alba.
Saint Alex, if you don't mind.
DeleteWhy has women A not apologised to Alex Salmond for trying to get him drunk and engage in sexual acts, probably for blackmail purposes
DeleteIf that were the case, it would make him a man of rather weak character if he couldn't simply say 'Thanks for the compliment, but I'm married and it would not be appropriate, goodnight and see you at the office tomorrow'.
Initially intrigued by the Alba thing I'm finding the internecine ill temper tedious. I think I'll just stick to both votes SNP, others can do as they see fit.
ReplyDeleteSET ENGLAND FREE, VOTE 1 AND 2 S.N.P.
ReplyDeleteSalmond's statement that he has no ambition to be in Government after May begs the question - will his group of say 5 or 6 MSPs (I'm being generous) just be hectoring/carping from the sidelines as the SNP gets on with the serious business of running the country?
ReplyDeleteWith the climate conference on the horizon Scotland will need to get behind Scotland's FM as she tries to ensure that our country isn't blanked by the UK.
In this regard I'd have more faith in an established force such as the Scottish Greens than any new party.
Being in government involves hard work and tough decisions.
DeleteBeing in opposition and just sitting around moaning at the government is much easier.
2011 had a momentum from the 2007 unexpected ( to me) results and was a chance to ‘prove’ the snp could be in charge.
DeleteI think most people of all political persuasion are well used to the snp being in charge now (even if needing supporting votes) so the prize is different - I’m not sure in what way yet though.
I agree re having been bounced into 2014. Would have better to have had minority gov; majority gov; majority gov plus referendum.
I don't know about anyone else, but I'm not exactly getting 2011-esque vibes about this election
ReplyDeleteIn 2011 we had no real hope of independence. It was a huge long shot with only the tiniest hope of success. Which is why Cameron happily bounced the SNP into the referendum. Called Salmond's bluff.
DeleteLooking for another shot at the prize just 2 years later post 2016 was like asking for the moon on a stick. Opinion just hadn't shifted and didn't with the brexit vote alone.
This election is very different and much darker forces are at play because the threat to the UK is now very, very real.
Beware false prophets; there are lots around.
Look at our wee friend who spent a year working this site before vanishing the day the plan failed.
Oops
Delete2011 had a momentum from the 2007 unexpected ( to me) results and was a chance to ‘prove’ the snp could be in charge.
I think most people of all political persuasion are well used to the snp being in charge now (even if needing supporting votes) so the prize is different - I’m not sure in what way yet though.
I agree re having been bounced into 2014. Would have better to have had minority gov; majority gov; majority gov plus referendum.
Meanwhile the positive policy announcements from the SNP today anent tablets/computers for Scotland's school bairns to help close the attainment gap goes unheralded. WHY?
ReplyDeleteBecause a tactical decision was taken by Salmond's party to drip feed defections from the SNP "For maximum effect".
If you're defecting - get on with it.
Oh Aye, and the good news story of a 4% rise for NHS staff is already fading from public consciousness because of an ill-timed party launch.
Who benefits?
Huzzah for another pointless Yes lead when there's no prospect for doing anything about it under Mrs Murrell.
ReplyDeleteIn other news.
Massive headlines telling us that Salmond backs Murrell as FM.
His actual statement was that she's the only current option therefore she's the best one available.
Which is both a backhanded compliment and a devastating critique on the way she's hollowed out the SNP and installed brainless acolytes instead of competent ministers.
PS. Daniel Gravel can't write for toffee, has a clear hatred of Men, and is far more guilty of Contempt of Court than Craig Murray.
Well, at least the SNP want to lead Scotland. Alba say they want SNP votes, but don't want to be in government.
DeletePPS.
ReplyDeleteThat Mandy Rhodes piece was interesting , but still talked of the poor women being let down.
Lest anyone has forgotten, those women both lied in court to send an innocent man to prison.
Woman A had a consensual encounter. They both admitted it was wrong, Salmond as senior party took responsibility, then she kept working for him for another 4 years.
After some encouragement from Ruddick et al that turned into attempted rape. The woman is loathsome. She could have blown the whole affair wide open by stating in court that she had been coerced, persuaded, threatened by Murrell to embellish her original story. But she chose lies over truth.
Woman B is the fake balcony attack character. An incident witnessed by a crowd of onlookers, an unaligned photographer, and with your actual photographic evidence of her lies.
Alex Salmond is the one who asked for them to receive anonymity in the Judicial review. Which is interesting as he knew they were both lying, but also knew that they were being used and abused by the Murrell Mafia, so didn't want them to suffer being exposed.
That is not the action of a misogynist.
No, the court decided they were not lying. If they had lied, they would be facing charges of perjury; a very serious matter.
DeleteWhat happened is that the jury decided whatever happened just wasn't criminal / that the law had not been broken.
PPPS.
ReplyDeleteMurrell states repeatedly that mediation or arbitration was not appropriate in the case of her government versus Alex Salmond. Which is odd, since it would have been appropriate had he been a current Minister facing exactly the same allegations.
She's either convinced herself that her lies are truth or suffering from Tertiary Syphilis. 51 is too early for Dementia, but it may be a possibility.
Is that you, Stu?
DeleteSince Murrell is not a member of the Scottish government, what he thought was irrelevant.
DeleteI see that Salmond needs to reign in the WoS and his gang. They won't get the 2nd vote if all he does is attack the SNP.
Deleteit has been a curious few months with WoS leaking all those documents given to him by Salmond. They thought they could damage Sturgeon when if fact Salmond destroyed his own legacy by running this vendetta by proxy. Once the dust settles in 2 weeks we will see if by continuing with the proxy vendetta that voters may not be granting the new party the list vote.
David Martin
Lord Ha Ha aka IFS/FFS/PeeJay and all other names you post under.
ReplyDeleteGive it a rest. Some of us are getting on with the new electoral situation. You can live in the past if you want. The rest of us are getting on with getting on to get a pro-independence majority on 6th May.
David Martin
'Your list vote should be for a party that you want to see in government' is the cardinal rule of AMS-PR.
ReplyDeleteAs Alba state they don't want to be in government, then that rules them out for me.
If I am going to give you my vote, I want you to aspire the lead the country, not to be in opposition.
So are we now looking at 3 Westminster by elections in Scotland?
ReplyDeleteHaving watched Salmondson on TV giving forth on the Alba / Alpha / Allah Po party, he came across as deranged. The main topic for the whole thing is 'have you stopped groping people?' That's it? That's just the first candidate, before anyone casts a glance at the candidate who was sent to genocide re-education camp.
ReplyDeleteWeirdly, Douglas Ross came across as comparatively reasonable, could even pronounce the name of the party he was representing, and wasn't always looking at stage exit right.
I must say that your amazing intellect is just a joy to behold. Millions worldwide are just in awe of your brain. Are you going to leave it to medical science. The scientist would love to see what real misery looks like and find the antidote to it.
DeleteWe are not voting Tory and that is an end to the matter.
DeleteCan I have what you are smoking?
DeleteJames, I read your article for the North East Regional list in The Sunday National. One error, the Greens did have a seat from 2003 to 2007 in the name of Shona Baird.
ReplyDeleteI now await the attacks on salmond from the somerset conservatives.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thenational.scot/news/19192977.nicola-sturgeon-best-person-lead-scotland-alex-salmond-says/
Nicola Sturgeon is the best person to lead Scotland, Alex Salmond says
He is still pouring out his venom. Not a way to attract votes, it will turn voters off.
DeleteWe are seeing a lot of posts about voting for this or that party to max the Yes. Unfortunately, most posts state vote ALBA or vote Green or vote XXX, because that will get us the most independence supporting MSPs.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, it will all depend on the level of support close to voting day on May 6th.
Firstly, the SNP must get the constituency vote or you will elect more unionists.
Second, you must support whichever of the other pro-independence list parties that would appear to garner the most support. If that is the Greens in your region, fair enough, but if not, then voting Green simply splits the independence vote. The same applies to the other list parties as well.
If you support the premise of max the yes, then on voting day it is SNP 1, most supported independence list party 2. Of course in some regions that may be SNP 1 and SNP 2 as well.
Not sure if Stuart Campbell is part of ALBA? But he certainly spoke at the launch, but is now saying the SNP is not an Indy party! Bizarre - How does that square with Alex Salmond's edict to his supporters to vote SNP on the constituency vote?
ReplyDeleteIs Wings with ALBA or not. He's certainly given it plenty of publicity.