Hi, I'm James Kelly, and I write the pro-independence blog Scot Goes Pop, which has a particular emphasis on opinion poll analysis. Over the course of 2020, I commissioned three Panelbase polls with your help. All three showed pro-independence majorities, and they were all landmark results in their own ways - the one at the start of the year put Yes on 52% for the first time since the summer of 2016, the one in June was the first to show that the events of the pandemic had pushed Yes back into the lead, and the one in November saw Yes soar to an all-time high in Panelbase polls of 56%.
The time is now ripe for another poll. After four and a half years, the terms of Brexit are finally known and will become a harsh reality within just hours. Extraordinarily, and without a shred of evidence, the Conservatives are claiming that Boris Johnson's last gasp, minimalistic trade deal is some sort of monumental setback for the independence movement. They also seem to believe that the public have been successfully hoodwinked into believing that the SNP "voted for No Deal" - when in fact it was only the Conservatives themselves that put us all at severe risk of a catastrophic No Deal outcome. Who knows, perhaps the public are reacting in the way that the Tories want them to react - but that seems highly unlikely somehow, and they should probably be allowed to speak for themselves.
As before, if the crowdfunder is successful, I will commission an opinion poll from a firm affiliated to the British Polling Council. It will ask the standard independence question, ie. 'Should Scotland be an independent country?', plus a number of supplementary questions of interest to the Yes movement. I'll ask for your suggestions before deciding on the final list of questions. Bear in mind that there's never any guarantee that we'll get the results that we want - but anything is better than unionist parties presuming to speak for the people of Scotland at such a critical juncture in our national story.
Target figure: I've set a slightly higher target figure of £7500 this time - not because the poll is likely to cost any more than the previous ones, but simply to give us a head start for the spring. It would probably make sense to commission one more poll during the Holyrood campaign proper.
Can't wait to see the results :D
ReplyDeletePossible question James:
ReplyDeleteQ:) From 1 to 10 (with 1 being highly unlikely and 10 being highly likely) - how likely are you to vote in Scottish Election in 2021 if the SNP do not have an explicit statement in their manifesto to hold IndyRef2 in 2021 whether WM agrees (provides S30) or not?
Or words to that effect. Be interesting to see response to that one.
Ta.
That will have the SNP panic buying chanty rolls.
DeleteGeacher: Moronic troll comment deleted, and yes my friend, leaving the single market and customs union is self-evidently a Hard Brexit.
ReplyDeleteSuggested questions -
ReplyDeleteshould the Holyrood election be held in May, or delayed?
should an independent Scotland set up a central bank and its own currency?
Should Scotland leave the UK single market?
ReplyDeleteShould Scotland attain Full Fiscal Autonomy, with only defence and foreign affairs shared at UK level?
Has the UK Covid vaccine rollout made you more or less likely to support independence?
There isn't a single uk market. That would require more than one country's parliament having a say in said market. Scotland could have vetoed the eu trade deal in a UK single market, eg over fisheries. Also, NI has different rules so isn't part of the UK market.
DeleteDoes FFA create a single UK market where Scotland has a veto on trade deals? It needs to or its not FFA. Does it come with access to the EU single market like NI?
What on earth does the Scottish government / nhs rolling out internationally produced vaccines have to do with indy? I suppose it might boost yes due to those that wanted to wait for a end to covid before moving to indy seeing that end in sight...
I agree on your veto point.
DeletePollsters ask all sorts of questions on what would shape your views though.
You have a fixation with FFA. Everything but defence and foreign policy. So what is the difference between essentially home rule and Independence. If your saying it's down to a common foreign policy isn't it the point that this constitutional crisis has, in part, arisen due to Brexit ie a foreign policy matter ? You cant have it both ways. We're either Independent or we're not. There is no comfortable half way house solution. That boat has long sailed
DeleteJames,
ReplyDeleteTo keep things like for like with previous Scot-Goes-Pop polls, and avoid 'house effects', might it be best to use Panelbase once again of a) they are willing to carry it out and b) are not prohibitively expensive ?
Panelbase will be my first choice, certainly, but if we fall well short of the target figure I'd have to look at alternatives.
DeleteErr, that is looking unlikely. Your allies - and that includes me - have already contributed magnificently. Me? A mere £10. Others far more substantially than that.
DeleteBest wishes for 2021 James, you do an incredible job.
Given the behaviour of the Royals over the pandemic, when it comes to visiting Scotland or not, a question or questions on the monarchy would be nice, including a non-pandemic one. This is an issue rarely polled, so not only would it be good in itself but a regular question on this in future polls might be the only regular polling on the matter.
ReplyDeleteThat kind of non-essential journey is how the new variant spread so quickly.
DeleteI think you'd have to be careful about that sort of thing. Independence supporters are wrongly described as anti-English by people down south, we cannot afford to give them any ammunition.
DeleteI think we are all well aware of the threat the arrival of the new English variant of covid in Scotland poses poppy. It's not like it hasn't been in the news.
ReplyDeleteThanks English Boris. When Scotland becomes independent, you should get a special mention.
ReplyDeletehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-nireland/bewildered-and-angry-northern-ireland-unionists-fret-over-place-in-uk-idUKKBN29513O
Bewildered and angry, Northern Ireland unionists fret over place in UK
...Many unionists are fiercely opposed to a compromise championed by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Irish government that will keep trade across the 500-km (300-mile) open land border with EU-member Ireland frictionless by effectively placing a customs border down the Irish Sea.
“I think it’s a disgrace,” Mervyn Gibson, grand secretary of the influential Protestant Orange Order organisation, told Reuters outside his Belfast home, where Britain’s Union Flag flies above the doorway.
“We should be treated equally whether we live in Devon or Cornwall (in England) or Antrim or Down (in Northern Ireland). We’ve been let down and indeed betrayed by the prime minister who promised us there would be no border down the Irish Sea.”
We’ll fight and don’t surrender
DeleteBut come when duty calls
With heart and hand and sword and shield
We’ll guard old Gibraltars walls
Well, tonight is the night the UK starts to break up officially.
ReplyDeleteNew borders forming down the Irish sea and between the UK-Gibraltar as NI heads for reunification in earnest while the rock joins the EU Schengen area.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55497084
"With this [agreement], the fence is removed, Schengen is applied to Gibraltar... it allows for the lifting of controls between Gibraltar and Spain," said Ms González Laya.
The Gibraltar deal will mean the EU sending Frontex border guards to facilitate free movement to and from Gibraltar. Their role is planned to last four years.
Ms González Laya did not say whether Spanish border guards would eventually be posted at Gibraltar's airport and/or seaport which, under the deal, will be de facto part of the EU's external border.
The Gibraltar deal would also mean the territory complying with EU fair competition rules in areas such as financial policy, the environment and the labour market, Ms González Laya said.
English nats are breaking up Britain for us.
Should we ask the Indy question in reverse as well?
ReplyDelete‘In the next referendum, how likely are you to support continuing Governance of Scotland from Westminster?’
BBC Hogmanay fireworks from the Wallace Monument this year. Is it a sign? ;-)
ReplyDeleteMy French family can now enter the former famous British outpost of Gibraltar without a passport while the brexit brits need to que up at immigration to show theirs. LOL.
ReplyDeleteUK folded like a cheap suit on everything. No full access to the single market, full customs barriers, end of free movement for brits while EU citizens settled in the UK retain it, no access for services / the city of london, EU boats happily fishing away in UK waters, a border down the Irish sea and the rock all but staying in the EU while joining Schengen.
Is their anything the UK didn't fold on?
I cannae believe some English blogs and unionist posters think Johnson has the backbone to forcibly stop iref2. He just f'n handed the rock and NI to the EU on a plate.