Incredibly, we'd only had two full-scale Scottish polls in this campaign prior to tonight. Ipsos-Mori had reported a huge SNP lead over the Tories, while Panelbase had reported a lead that wasn't all that much higher than in 2017. Although Panelbase have become known in recent times as one of the least SNP-friendly pollsters, there was a reasonable concern that Ipsos-Mori may only have found such a big lead because of their telephone methodology, and that further online polls might be more in line with Panelbase. The new poll from YouGov lays that worry to rest. In complete contrast to what happened in 2017, it looks as if the SNP may actually have gained a little support over the course of the campaign - quite an achievement in the 'away fixture' of a Westminster election.
Scottish voting intentions (YouGov):
Scottish voting intentions (YouGov):
Conservatives 28% (+6)
Labour 15% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 12% (-1)
Greens 1% (-3)
Seats projection: SNP 44 (+9), Conservatives 9 (-4), Liberal Democrats 4 (n/c), Labour 2 (-5)
The 6% increase for the Tories shouldn't be regarded as any kind of shock - the change is measured from the most recent YouGov poll in October, and there's been plenty of evidence since then that the Tories have reaped the benefits of a total collapse in Brexit Party support. I know some people will be concerned to see the Tories virtually back to the 29% vote they had in 2017, but remember that under first-past-the-post what matters more than anything is the gap between the first-placed party and the second-placed party - and that gap appears to have doubled over the last two years from 8% to 16%. For proof that a decent share of the vote doesn't necessarily translate into a decent haul of seats, remember that Labour took only one seat in 2015 despite having 24% of the vote.
The biggest threat to SNP dominance in this campaign is any late Labour surge, and this poll does pick up tentative signs of a Labour recovery - but it could well be too little, too late. Labour would need to be well into the 20s before they'd do any real damage, and they're fast running out of time. Their last opportunity to make a big stride forward could be the rigged BBC "Prime Ministerial" (sic) Debate that includes Corbyn but excludes most other major party leaders. But the equivalent ITV debate a few weeks ago failed to noticeably shift the dial.
If YouGov's numbers are close to the final result, the SNP can be quietly confident of making gains from the Tories, and supremely confident of making gains from Labour. Which makes it all the more frustrating that they may have thrown away their chance in one of the six seats they realistically hoped to take from Labour. However, if the SNP really do have a 29% national lead over Labour, Neale Hanvey will hope to ride on the coat-tails of his former party's success due to having the SNP name and logo next to his own name on the ballot paper. He may still have an outside chance.
* * *
I have two more constituency previews in today's edition of The National - this time it's North Ayrshire & Arran and Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock.
Seats projection: SNP 44 (+9), Conservatives 9 (-4), Liberal Democrats 4 (n/c), Labour 2 (-5)
The 6% increase for the Tories shouldn't be regarded as any kind of shock - the change is measured from the most recent YouGov poll in October, and there's been plenty of evidence since then that the Tories have reaped the benefits of a total collapse in Brexit Party support. I know some people will be concerned to see the Tories virtually back to the 29% vote they had in 2017, but remember that under first-past-the-post what matters more than anything is the gap between the first-placed party and the second-placed party - and that gap appears to have doubled over the last two years from 8% to 16%. For proof that a decent share of the vote doesn't necessarily translate into a decent haul of seats, remember that Labour took only one seat in 2015 despite having 24% of the vote.
The biggest threat to SNP dominance in this campaign is any late Labour surge, and this poll does pick up tentative signs of a Labour recovery - but it could well be too little, too late. Labour would need to be well into the 20s before they'd do any real damage, and they're fast running out of time. Their last opportunity to make a big stride forward could be the rigged BBC "Prime Ministerial" (sic) Debate that includes Corbyn but excludes most other major party leaders. But the equivalent ITV debate a few weeks ago failed to noticeably shift the dial.
If YouGov's numbers are close to the final result, the SNP can be quietly confident of making gains from the Tories, and supremely confident of making gains from Labour. Which makes it all the more frustrating that they may have thrown away their chance in one of the six seats they realistically hoped to take from Labour. However, if the SNP really do have a 29% national lead over Labour, Neale Hanvey will hope to ride on the coat-tails of his former party's success due to having the SNP name and logo next to his own name on the ballot paper. He may still have an outside chance.
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I have two more constituency previews in today's edition of The National - this time it's North Ayrshire & Arran and Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock.
55% for Unionist Parties.
ReplyDeleteThat doesn't mean a referendum would turn out that way. Latest polling 50 50...
DeleteAbout 25% of Labour voters support independence. No, I don't know how they can bring themselves to support Labour.
DeleteHonestly? Who gives a fuck??? Not all people who vote for 'UK' parties are for the union and you can't claim they are.
DeleteThat's irrelevant under Great British first past the post rules GWC.
DeleteAnd every one an inch.
Delete"Honestly? Who gives a fuck??? Not all people who vote for 'UK' parties are for the union and you can't claim they are"
DeleteYes, GWC has pointed this out. He says it's a British election, not a Scottish one.
Ranging from 6% of Tories to 40% of Labour voters in Scotland, support independence.
DeleteThis will rise as Boris governs with his usual combination of BS, fantasy, evation and smears.
James, you have often made the point that averaging YG Scots crossbreaks is pretty close to a YG Full Scottish poll,
ReplyDeleteThis YG Full Scottish poll and the YG crossbreak averages covering 15Nov – 3 Dec is as follows for the 4 main parties
Party : Full Scottish : crossbreak average
SNP : 44% : 44%
SCon : 28% : 27%
SLab: 15% : 15%
SLD : 12% :11%
A pretty good congruence!
Nae signs then of any Corbyn bounce.
ReplyDeleteScots gave them one last chance in some seats but they've been finally rumbled.
I think 15% might be the high end for
SLAB. Anecdotally, the Labour vote has never been softer in Scotland IMO.
Realistically I think the SNP are definitely capable of winning 6-7 seats off the Tories.
ReplyDeleteAyr, Carrick and Cumnock,
Stirling,
Ochil and South Perthshire.
Angus,
Aberdeen South, and
East Renfrewshire.
They should really be winning in all of the above.
If they've a really good day Moray and Dumfries and Galloway should both also come into play and maybe Banff and Buchan.
Aberdeenshire West and Mundell and Lamont are safe.
Not sure why you don't list Gordon here. Tories took it in 2017 due to massive tactical voting by the LDs. can't really see that happening this time.
DeleteAh, just left it off by mistake.
DeleteDouglas Red Card Ross really shouldn't have an earthly of holding on in Moray. I will blame the SNP in part if that nasty piece of work does hold on.
DeleteThe Electoral Calculus projection gives 2 seats to Labour, one of which is Kirkaldy and Cowdenbeath where it assumes that SNP get 0% of the vote given there is no official SNP candidate.
ReplyDeleteHowever, Neale Hanvey is still standing on and will still be shown as the SNP candidate on the ballot paper. The projection makes no allowance for a 'non-aligned' or 'independent' candidate that Neale Hanvey status now is in actual fact.
So the likelihood of a Labour MP projected (50.2%) in the model is not a true reflection of the actual probability of one (Lesley Laird, the incumbent) being returned.
Labour seats are fair game, but winning back any blue tory seats in Scotland is a big ask. Since 2015, the tories have managed to convert many British nationalists and hard NO voters into single issue voters (anyone but SNP). Ruthie is gone now, but she successfully kicked it off and the process continues to this day. So don't get too excited about winnng back some if any of them. Aberdeen South looks promising, but the rest are pretty big mountains to climb IMO. Remember the strong historical SNP vote in places like south Angus was mainly tactical (NO voters - happy to support SNP until the constitutional issue was forced). Built on sand - as demonstrated to everyone's surprise in 2017. Here today, gone tomorrow. That's just the way of it.
ReplyDeleteIf anything, Aberdeen South is more likely out of reach than some others. Stirling, for example, was taken by the Tories on less than 150 votes.
DeleteMy understanding is that both Banff & Buchan and Gordon are moving towards SNP gains and Moray is going to go down to the wire. The SNP candidates in Banff & Buchan and Gordon have just, in the past week, both been endorsed by a major player in the fishing industry which does appear to have made an impact. Time will tell.
ReplyDeleteI get your point James about the 'rigged BBC "Prime Ministerial"' debate boosting Labour, but don't you think the real concern (imo) is the rigged "Scottish party leader" debate?
ReplyDeleteI'm sure Sarah Smith will make sure the unionists have all the time they need to quote from their well-practiced guff at FMQ's. There should be a rule that only General Election Manifesto issues can be raised.
Strangely, the election pamphlet from Joanna Cherry doesn't mention Scottish independence at all. It's all brexit, baby. It's actually very similar to the one from the Lib Dems, with a different photo and a different logo. Anyway, it absolutely definitely communicates what the SNP candidate wants a referendum on, without any mention, whatsoever, of any other referendum.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP already have a mandate for iref2 from Holyrood 2016. As the UK parliament isn't recognized as representing Scots in terms of UN covenants on 'self determination', independence must come only from the Scottish Parliament. Hence in 2014, we had a referendum even though we also had a shit load of labour MPs.
DeleteBetter not make this election all about indy, and keep it about Scotland's influence on British issues. Lots of indy supporters made the mistake of not doing that last time in 2017, and the media gleefully jumped on it when the SNP lost lots of seats, even though support for indy hadn't fallen. Scots know the two are not directly related.
Scots MPs are leverage alone. They, and Westminster, will not decide Scotland's future in terms of independence.
"That doesn't mean a referendum would turn out that way. Latest polling 50 50..."
ReplyDeleteThat poll was based on the GE franchise which excludes 16-17 year olds and EU nationals both of which groups will be included in IndyRef franchise. Worth at least another 2% so YES probably sitting (at least) on 52%. And that's before any formal YES campaigning.
Latest UK MORI shows Labour closing the gap markedly. However, it could just be MORI catching up with all the others, reflecting the gap closure to 9 points by end November. There really needs to be new polls from all the usuals showing mid to the occasional upper 40's for Labour in the next few days or the conclusion will be the Labour surge has ran out of steam.
ReplyDeleteElectoral calculus have reduced con seat estimates again. Mid level estimate is now 339, just 3 more than Major '92.
DeleteSNP gains from con could be crucial if things get tighter.
UK MORI Scots subsample:
ReplyDelete50% SNP
22% Con
12% Lab
12% Lib
2% Brx
Appreciate that's a subsample but if it was close to the real figures on the day only Lamont and Carmichael would be safe.
DeleteEven Fluffy and the leader of the people's republic of Red Morningside would be at risk.
A good poll. SNP vote holding up. Going by those results its going to be very tight as to if its a great night or a good night for the SNP.
ReplyDeleteIf somehow the SNP could poll 45-47% and the Tories lose 2-3% of their support, I think the SNP could take most of those target seats e.g Angus, Ochill, Banff/Buchan etc.
If we can poll 45% and limit the Tories to 25% then could well be a very good night. Then again if the Tories are on 28% and piling up votes in the central belt but winning no seats then its maybe good too!
Kevin I said last week I felt at the start of the week that there I could sense of a wee surge to the SNP .The Labour vote also appears to have disappeared but unfortunately the hard core Unionist vote is getting louder and nastier .
DeleteI got a feeling you are right about the Tories getting more support in the central belt but not being replicated in the places like the North East
Tory problem has always been that they're squeezing a finite voter base.
DeleteThe hard core unionist/loyalist vote in Scotland (i.e. - will never support independence under any circumstances, ever, ever, ever) is between 25-31/32% of the population give or take.
The Tory vote is now at 28% so there's very little else for them to gain additional votes from in Scotland.There's probably a few heirs to the old Liberal Unionist's still kicking about the Lib Dems (the Cole-Hamilton's of this world) which could push them to 30% but that's the absolute ceiling for their support.
Any liberals or conservatives who are pro-independence are never going to vote for a party that seems to be seeking to model itself on the DUP.
In the tables, SNP support is 44% in all age groups up to 65. Only in 65+ does it suddenly drop to 29%.
DeleteIt's not age, it's generational. A remnant of a unionist Scotland that is long gone and will never return.
Which is quite surprising when you consider how many grey heads turned out for the AUOB marches
DeleteThey are the ones that deserve indy the most. Many have been campaigning a long time for that day to come.
DeleteMy point was of course it's not like you become more unionist with age, but that the post-war consensus unionist Scotland of nationalised institutions / industries and the socialist solidarity welfare state is long gone. Thatcherism destroyed 'British society' by declaring there was no such thing, and flogging off or shutting down everything British here.
As one of the Grey Heads, I would like to fully endorse Scottish Skier's point. I was brought up in the immediate post-war world. The people -- schoolteachers, journalists, pundits, preachers, politicians -- from whom I learned or absorbed what the world was, and how it worked, had themselves grown up and lived their entire lives, before the war, at the heart of the British Empire. The work, both civil and military, of the Empire was, in Scots' estimation, largely done by Scots. It might have been more realistic to call it the Anglo-Scottish Empire. Remember that Glasgow was proudly known as the Second City of the Empire, not of 'Britain', or the United Kingdom.
DeleteFor those generations, an independent Scotland was simply an unthinkable idea. For any English person who is now aged 50-60 or more, this is the understanding of the world that they grew up with.
Philip Larkin famously observed that 'Sexual intercourse began in nineteen sixty-three'. I think that was also the year that the British Empire, having staggered on for 20 years under the improbable pseudonym of 'Commonwealth', finally gave up the ghost.
Let's hope.. the fat, lying coward gets a hard time on tonight's leaders debate, and makes a complete arse of himself .. also, not too many viewers fall asleep when Corbyn opens his trap!
ReplyDeleteThis poll covers the period when postal votes were being cast.
ReplyDeleteLibby Brooks in The Guardian:
Delete"Out with the SNP canvassers in East Dunbartonshire yesterday, I came across an interesting fact: 12,000 postal ballots had already been returned in that constituency by Thursday. Compare this with the total turnout in 2017 of 51,801.
About 18% of the Scottish electorate are registered as postal voters, pretty similar to what it usually is for a general election, so no particular December surge as some predicted..."
She also has an article noting that Ms Vowelstrangler appears to grate on certain local punters.
12,000 out of 52,000 is 23%. Which to the statistically inclined is significantly more than 18%. Have they been faking the vote again?
DeleteRemember the Glenrothes election? Labour had admitted defeat before the postal votes turned up and they ended up winning 55% of the vote. That was a clear test run for the referendum and the last election with the impossible increases in conservative vote share. "Akin to a banana republic" is how postal voting was described in court. I doubt anything has been done to clean it up.
East Dunbartonshire is a constituency dominated by older voters and it includes some care homes whose postal votes always turn up with amazingly all the same handwriting because the *nice lady filled it in for me*
ReplyDeleteIn some places the SNP aren't even allowed in, and I know that because I used to go in to leaflet drop because I'm local and a sheltered housing resident but a complaint was made by the Liberal Democrats to the housing provider (whom I won't name) they in turn complained to the SNP who I'm sorry to say accepted it in order not to cause a fuss
So in my case I can tell you many peoples suspicions about postal votes are real and true and the biggest abusers of that system are the Liberal Democrats
I had the experience in parts of Edinburgh way back in the 70s and 80s and early 90s when i lived there. Nothing changes.What annoys me is that nothing has been done ever to stop this fraud.Only it wasn't the Fib Dooms at it - it was Tory and Labour Party at it in equal measure.
DeleteWhat democracy?
Seems the former right wing ruling class elites are coordinating their attacks on Brexit. Blair, Heseltine and Major. And the Scottish Nat si elites are with them.
ReplyDeleteThe current right-wing ruling class elites are pretty keen on Brexit, mind.
DeleteDid anybody hear Susan Deacon be described as, "Former Labour," on the news about Police boards? I didn't. Not that the media erasing the political leanings of our enemies is an uncommon event.
ReplyDeleteYou have an enemy?
DeleteIn the great who not to vote for war I see some people not getting it, again.
ReplyDeleteNobody in their right mind would vote for either kerr or smyth. But the one who would do most damage to the yoonion if elected is kerr, and the one who will do most damage to the SNP and Yes if elected is smyth.
Saying hold your nose and vote for smyth, archibald, leeze, henderson, mcfarlane, mennie, dex and co just won't wash. That sort of behaviour allowed blair to invade Iraq and then get away with it.
On who performed best in the #BBCDebate:
ReplyDeleteBoris Johnson: 52%
Jeremy Corbyn: 48%
via @YouGov
Representative survey of viewers
Labour is apparently not doing well on the doorstep in the Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath constituency, as they've urgently called in reinforcements. Neale Hanvey raised three times as much money in less time AFTER the SNP dropped him and he seems to have solid support locally. Maybe more now because of the suspension, but it's impossible to tell before the votes are counted. If the Greens hadn't fielded a candidate to (in my view) prevent Hanvey taking the seat, I'd be fairly certain he would win. With the Greens, I fear Lesley Laird will win again.
ReplyDeleteI attended the hustings this week, which to be fair was an incredibly hostile crowd for the Labour candidate. While Lesley Laird did keep her humour in the face of relentless, well informed and detailed questioning of Labour policies and a majority pro-indy crowd, she failed to connect. As did the Green Party candidate - possibly too young and cocky but in my opinion also ageist and offensive on some questions. I just don't think insulting voters and one's fellow politicians is the way to win votes - at one point the crowd all but hissed at him even though his barb was directed at Laird.
I'd never met Hanvey before or seen him live, so it was interesting to see how he handled the difficult questions. He won the hustings hands down, but I realise that means nothing, especially since there was a lacklustre write up in the local paper.
Libdems, Brexit Party and Tory candidates didn't bother turning up, for the second hustings in a row. I don't know if they attended any hustings in the constituency at all. So, the Conservative pundit who wrote on Conservative Home that the constituency could turn into a three way marginal between Hanvey, Labour and Tories must have information we're not privy too because I just can't see it happening right now. To me it's a straight up Pro-indy vs Labour fight.
I participated in this YouGov poll the other day. It was very strange, as in previous polls, whenever I indicated that I would vote SNP or YES, the survey would immediately cut me off. For that reason, I have never trusted YouGov polls, (not that any of them are particularly trustworthy), as they seem to be 'fixed'. As far as I know, weighting should take place after sampling and not in the middle of sampling, and the initial questions appear to be concerned with sampling, so this cutting off the respondent shouldn't be part of the weighting process. Interested in your thoughts on this.
ReplyDelete