Thanks to Scottish Skier for drawing my attention to a little-noticed detail from last weekend's full-scale Scottish poll from Panelbase: there is now a majority in favour of an early independence referendum. On the rounded numbers, the split is 50% in favour, 50% against, but a close look at the unrounded numbers reveals the majority is just about there.
Total in favour of an early independence referendum: 50.2% (+0.7)
Total opposed to an early independence referendum: 49.8% (-0.7)
Of course those percentage changes are trivial and not statistically significant, but psychologically they're very important, because the Tories have repeatedly told us that the evidence shows there is no public appetite for an independence referendum. Well, here is evidence showing the complete opposite.
To maintain consistency with a question they've been asking for years, Panelbase always split the pro-referendum position into two separate options, and support for the more radical option has also seen an increase since the last poll...
When do you think another Scottish independence referendum should be held?
There should not be another Scottish independence referendum in the next few years: 49.8% (-0.7)
When the UK has finished negotiating to leave the EU: 27.9% (-2.2)
While the UK is negotiating to leave the EU: 22.3% (+2.9)
That wording is getting close to being past its sell-by date, because arguably the UK has already finished negotiating to leave the EU. So it could be said that 27.9% of the public think a second indyref should take place now, and 22.3% think it should already have taken place! It certainly seems to be the case that half of the electorate want a referendum in the very near future.
We should have had an independence referendum last night along with the corrupt EU referendum. The Nat sis would have been trashed along with their fascist EU Mafia trash.
ReplyDeleteWeird obsessed moron.
DeleteMoron obsessed wierdo.
DeleteOh Jesus Christ. More of the Rotterdam cherries. F sake.
DeleteIts natsi Nige and the Far-right-ragers that are the fascist mafia but a thick plank of Amber Rudd natsi boy like GWC doesn't understand that.
DeleteI think the chief inbred idiot has been trashing his natsi sistermisus again.
Lets hear it for Michelle and the Barny army.
'Nat sis'. Grow up, have some self esteem and stop being a door mat for the people in the country next door.
DeleteKello Rovers!, I'll Kello Rovers ye.
DeleteGiven the reports of voter suppression in this election I doubt speculation about indyref2 is wise from a unionist standpoint.
DeleteDoes make me wonder whether the aim of it was to lower the votes for the Greens and Lib Dems in England as the main Remain parties allowing the Conservatives and perhaps Labour to steal a few more seats than polls predict.
In Scotland it's probably SNP and Greens.,
Given this site's focus the follow-up question is whether that suppression would have had a major impact on polling if known in advance. If so then the changed basis for any "tactical" voting advice might have led to different conclusions.
Who won in Scotland today? Tories got wiped out in that other country.
ReplyDeleteResults not published until every country has stopped voting Bill, not too sure about the Australia results but I think Brexit are favourites.
DeleteAlso the Greek entry was fantastic.
DeleteSorry but don't people know by the turnout? The other countries have results already out.dont the people on the ground know if they got their voters out?
DeleteI'm not really sure what you mean - only the Netherlands and the UK have completed voting so far. There was an exit poll in the Netherlands last night, but that's the only concrete information so far. The vast majority of countries don't vote until Sunday.
DeleteOf course in one way it's all irrelevant as the people who say there's no desire for another referendum will just continue to shout loudly that there's no desire for another referendum, and get away with it because the media won't properly question them regarding polls like this.
ReplyDelete'Arguably the wording has past its sell by date',
ReplyDeleteYour contorting that one a bit toward your self serving bias. Pretty sure that the perception of the question would be, when the Brexit mess has been resolved regarding both the future relationship and the withdrawal agreement and we're a million miles from that. The fact the EU has stopped negotiating on the withdrawal agreement hasn't resolved the issue and is neither here nor there to the average voter. We're far from guaranteed to even leave the EU.
Until there is majority agreement in the UK parliament, a deal is ratified by both parties and is reported as such in the media, most voters are not going perceive that negotiations are finished.
Half a percentage point here or there on the desire for a referendum doesn't make a difference either, Scotland is utterly divided on the issue of another referendum as it is on independence itself.
Even if there is a referendum and yes gets 51% of the vote which is where my money would be, opinion polls will reverse following the result, the SNP will face a backlash at the next election and it'll be absolute chaos just like Brexit.
Because as with Brexit the nation is fundamentally divided with the overwhelming majority holding entrenched positions on the issue. The few floating voters would be blown with the prevailing wind which most likely would be Yes in the heat and emotion of a campaign and No following it when reality strikes and the consequences become apparent.
Even that was the case, so what? That's life. It's not as if it can be stopped or should be.
DeleteI mean should people stop voting for what they think is best because it's not clear if a massive supermajority of some form will agree with them? If so, we'd never be voting.
So if Scotland votes Yes by 50%+1, then independence it will be. Maybe a later unionist win might try to reverse that, but they'd face the same backlash as Con+Lab are facing now. It would likely destroy them at the polls.
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As a side note, if Scotland votes Yes, for it to later rejoin the UK, there would need to be a second referendum in Scotland, but also one in the rest of the UK. It would be completely anti-democratic otherwise. Just because Scots wanted to reverse the result doesn't mean the people of the rUK would want that too for example. They would need to be consulted.
Oh, and Scotland is also currently divided on the matter. 49% Yes / 51% No in polls. So turning that the other way isn't going to make a lot of difference is it?
DeleteThere's no blood on the streets while we're in the union by a bawhair and so likewise there'd not be if we were out by a bawhair.
Unless you are suggesting unionists don't accept democracy and are violent / dangerous?
Unionists would be free to campaign for re-joining the UK just as indy supporters dusted themselves off and got back out on doorsteps after 2014. That's democracy!
"As a side note, if Scotland votes Yes, for it to later rejoin the UK, there would need to be a second referendum in Scotland, but also one in the rest of the UK."
DeleteHere's a question I like to ask people who claim that an independent Scotland would ever look to give up that independence:
How many countries have voluntarily surrendered independence once gained, in modern history. Or even in ancient history?
Once you've answered that, then you have to ask yourself, what makes Scotland so different that you believe there would be a possibility of an independent Scotland surrendering that autonomy?
Theresa May resigning.
ReplyDeleteSo, the UK will now move on to having an even more incompetent PM and the 'Great British Constitutional Crisis/Collapse' will go from worse to disastrous.
Even if there was someone remotely competent standing in the wings ready to take the helm, they'd have an almost impossible task in terms of trying to sort this mess out.
The SNP need to give up on any attempt to save England from itself and just focus on extracting Scotland from this giant pile of torn union flag adorned shit. While their approach is not hurting support for Yes at all, it's not helping them as a party any more, and I suspect it's even starting to hurt them.
A proportion of the brexit vote are not unionists, but Scexiters wanting e.g. a Norway style EFTA/EEA Scotland.
Also, like me, while I'd rather brexit was cancelled, I don't think Scotland should be trying to cancel England's brexit. Not if Scotland can freely go indy and let England do what it wants.
As a follow on we should ask why Scotland should continue to be ruled by a political rabble who are being hugely rejected by voters in England.
DeleteDo we value ourselves so lowly that we're waiting to see what happens next.
Asking for a S30 order is a good tactic as it reveals the arrogance of the London elite in their response.
People are switching to YES no doubt about it.
Many were giving the UK one last chance. They blew it..
Obviously, the new PM will have even less of a mandate for 'now is not the time' than the previous one. At least May could claim to have won the 2017 UK parliament election UK-wide.
ReplyDeletePM Bozo for example would be completely unelected (outside of his own constituency).
Aye, and what kind of mandate to rule Scotland will Bozo or any other right wing PM have when chosen by a few thousand South of England Tories running scared of Farage..
ReplyDeleteEven loyal Scots Tories will struggle to convince anyone we're in some kind of equal Union.
Last days of Empire surely.
Has the queen just had a baby or something? It seems unlikely.
ReplyDeleteNaw, bit yoan yin hiz nae claes.
Delete'Buffalo Rider', thoan precursor tae 'Beached Blue Whale'.
Richt J. Curtice Esq., whaurs yurr nummurrs fur thoan EU.
Difficult to see how the current situation doesn't end in a no deal brexit and so a very messy break up of the UK.
ReplyDeleteSeems up to 2 million EU citizens were unable to vote.
ReplyDeleteTalk of court cases.
It may be necessary to re-run the election. It's illegal to prevent people voting the numbers being floated could have totally changed MEP make-up.
I'm not sure about Scotland, but to use use it as an example simply for scale, the above numbers could readily mean 12.5% being removed from Remain parties on a typical turnout, i.e. a whole extra MEP being potentially handed to Leave.
EU citizens make up 3.4 of Scottish Electorate on typical turnout looking at 1.5% at worst, don't know how you get 12.5%
DeleteThe numbers were for scale as stated. An example.
DeleteHowever, 3.4 / 33.5 (the 2014 turnout) * 100 = 10.1% of votes potentially cast = almost a full seat changing type result, if most EU voters were denied the vote.
Anyway, 2 million unable to vote UK wide and the election needs to be held again. It's not a valid result if people are unable to vote.
Sorry your maths is wrong. the most votes that can of been lost is 3.4% of the electorate. 10.1% of votes cannot be lost from 3.4% of the electorate - that would meant they all had three votes.
DeleteTHe 2 million figure is the total estimated number of registered EU votes, so clearly that is not going to be the figure.
Obviously there has been an issue and the reasons why need to be looked at and addressed (especially as the same issues happened in 2014). Ultimately it will be down to the EU to decide is the result is valid.
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DeleteNo, my maths is fine. If 3.4% of the electorate can't vote on a 34% turnout, then 10% of that turnout might be lost. That's an Mep in Scotland.
DeleteHowever, it was only illustration as noted. I clearly said I did not know the scale of the problem nor extent in Scotland.
If the final numbers denied a vote uk wide could have changed the result on terms of 1 mep, the election needs to be held again. Democracy must be ensured.
Scotland disnae hae a queen.
ReplyDeleteTho there is an awfie big holiday cottage forenent oor pairliament.
Absentee landlords eh!
Is she what you would call a Bagwitch? Is she the one called Elizabeth? Who is Kate? Daughter?
DeleteBright red cardigan over printed dresses, oh look!, there goes Concord again.
DeleteA fine thing.