The mystery I mentioned in the previous post has been solved much quicker than expected - and to be fair, it appears (just this once) that nothing sinister was going on. The reason why the Scottish subsample was missing from the datasets of the YouGov mega-poll commissioned by the People's Vote campaign was, it seems, that it was being withheld for publication later on as a full-scale poll in its own right, which has now happened. The results are devastating for Labour, and they're not much better for the Tories either.
Scottish voting intentions for the next Westminster election:
SNP 40% (n/c)
Conservatives 25% (-2)
Labour 21% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+1)
Greens 3% (+1)
UKIP 2% (+1)
Conservatives 25% (-2)
Labour 21% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+1)
Greens 3% (+1)
UKIP 2% (+1)
The percentage changes listed above are from the last published full-scale Scottish poll from YouGov, which was conducted many months ago. If anything, the SNP's 40% share might be seen as being on the lower end of expectations, given how well they've been doing in recent YouGov subsamples (never lower than 40% and reaching as high as 46%). But of course what really matters in a first-past-the-post election is the gap between a party and its competitors - and the SNP's lead over both the Tories and Labour has essentially doubled since the June 2017 election. On a uniform swing, the SNP would make a big jump from 35 seats at the moment to around 45 - and the big difference from some recent polls is that they'd be making significant seat gains from the Tories and not just Labour. One of the constituencies they'd recover from the Tories would be Gordon - which might be of some interest to a certain Mr Salmond if he fancies taking his old Westminster seat back once he rejoins the SNP!
The main propaganda purpose of the Britain-wide poll from the point of view of the People's Vote campaign seemed to be to put pressure on the Labour leadership by demonstrating that they will lose massive support to the Liberal Democrats if they are seen to facilitate Brexit. I wondered in the previous post whether the missing Scottish figures would show that Labour votes in Scotland would drift to the SNP rather than the Lib Dems, and that's broadly proved to be the case.
Hypothetical Scottish voting intentions for Westminster if a Brexit deal is passed by Conservative and Labour MPs, but opposed by SNP and Liberal Democrat MPs:
SNP 43%
Conservatives 27%
Labour 15%
Liberal Democrats 9%
Conservatives 27%
Labour 15%
Liberal Democrats 9%
People are generally bad at answering hypothetical questions, so those figures should be taken with a huge dose of salt. It might well not be anything like that bad for Labour once the page is actually turned - although I also wouldn't rule out the slight possibility that it could be even worse for them if a legend really takes root that they were responsible for dragging Scotland into a hard Brexit. Either way, it's heartening that voters in Scotland seem to instinctively see the SNP rather than the Lib Dems as the most natural repository for anti-Brexit votes. That could be a sign that Nicola Sturgeon's post-2017 strategy is paying dividends.
* * *
Scot Goes Pop fundraiser: If you'd like to help this blog keep going strong over what could be an epic few months, just a reminder that last year's fundraiser is still very much open for donations, and hasn't reached the target figure yet.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/constitution/northern-ireland-assembly/news/100958/ministers-discuss-prospect-break-uk-event
ReplyDeleteMinisters discuss prospect of the break-up of the UK in the event of a no-deal Brexit
Northern Ireland Secretary Karen Bradley issued the stark warning at Tuesday's meeting of the Cabinet.
She said that a so-called "border poll" on the reunification of Ireland was far more likely if the UK crashes out of the bloc without a withdrawal agreement.
Meanwhile, Shadow Scottish Secretary David Mundell also told the meeting that the Cabinet should be braced for Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon calling for a second independence referendum in the event of a chaotic Brexit.
*Shadow* Scottish Secretary David Mundell? There is much truth in that slip.
DeleteI know Davidson is on maternity leave, but I also wonder if she's looking around for a new career, maybe in the media. Even before motherhood beckoned she seemed to have lost interest. She isn't up to the job of mastering detail or strategy, do maybe she's hoping for a job more suited to her temperament. Like presenting on QVC.
ReplyDeleteSNP civil war hitting Labour and Tory vote shares then.
ReplyDeleteYet another poll that indicates the absolute nonsense spouted by the Green ink Brigade (amateur and paid churnalists) has little or no traction.
ReplyDeleteThere's a new Green Ink Brigadier appeared on Twitter recently called Viv something. She's so deranged that she's either: a) the madcap Cyberbrit professor from Edinburgh; or b) a total spoof wind-up having a great laugh.
ReplyDeleteI defy anyone to read her twittering s without laughing out loud.
Oh god. Here we go. EU workers emigrating en masse. Unemployment starting to creep up. Car sales plummetting with thousands of jobs being cut. Growth grinding to a halt. NHS running low on some types of medicine...
ReplyDeletehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-retail/uk-retailers-suffer-worst-christmas-in-a-decade-brc-idUKKCN1P4007
UK retailers suffer worst Christmas in a decade - BRC
British retailers failed to increase their Christmas sales for the first time since the depths of the global financial crisis a decade ago, adding to signs of an economic slowdown ahead of Brexit...
Sad that capitalism has to rely on the public purchasing junk for what is a day in the year forgotten for what it is.
DeleteCordelia's drunk and ranting again...
DeleteThe last of the festive Bristol Cream.
DeleteToo classy for Cordelia. It prefers Toilet Duck.
DeleteThe 'GWC effect' in action.
ReplyDeleteYougov Scottish poll EU question:
68(+5)% Remain
32(-5)% Leave
If we get a bad deal, it will mainly be the UK Government’s fault
Delete63% Agree
25% Disagree
---
31%
It is more important for Britain to have control over EU immigration into Britain than to keep free trade
69%
It is more important to ensure Britain can trade freely with the EU without tariffs or restrictions than it is to control EU immigration
---
On May's deal:
27% Support
73% Oppose
That should be (change on 2016):
DeleteYougov Scottish poll EU question:
68(+6)% Remain
32(-6)% Leave
Leave getting hammered.
SNP ZanEu-Blairites can expect that sort of result for a short time. But they shouldn't always expect real nationalists to lie down to collaborators.
Delete(I see that more of the "central" belt Ardoyner Annexe types are offering insults to ethnic Scots on the WingsOverBath site.)
Anonymous be a grown up and tell everyone your name or are you to much of a Coward to do so? You really are a pathetic thing!
DeletePaul you are a street corner bum bhoy. A hard brexit is required and the British exerting their authority over the democracy. The British will prevail and it will do Scotland good to have food rationing as it will save lives in obese Scotland. We will be fit tae fight anyone.
DeletePoor drunken Cordelia.
DeleteWhat a homophobic and sectarian mess it is.
Let's make it cry.
I'm presuming (though that they may be wrong) that the London and Scots crossbreaks in that YG poll have been demographically weighted to those populations, and not just as part of the GB cohort. In which case the missing crossbreaks would inevitably represent the demographics of rE&W - something we haven't seen before.
ReplyDeleteAnyone got info on the weightings used for the geographic crossbreaks?
The only difference between Ruth and Knickerless is Ruth did not take the boabie. Both are right wing capitalists, support the EU fascists and foodbanks are for the the weak and poor.
ReplyDeletePoor drunken Cordelia.
DeleteWhat a homophobic and sectarian mess it is.
Let's make the British nationalist shambles cry.
Another treble, Cordelia? Ice and lemon, dear?
DeleteAnon and Iain! I like a bit of lemon but not up the bum. OH IT'S SORE. A HARD BREXIT WOULD BE SORE but Scotland could be independent.
DeletePoor drunken Cordelia, still nursing its homophobic fixations.
DeleteHid tae laugh at the Socialist Owen Jones who loves the EU capitalist system and his comments about the violent right and ignores the Socialist violent democratic IRA. Whit a wee opportunist prick rakin in ra dosh. Even the BBC give him a regular platform. Ah well the older ye get ye see the hypocrites lining up.
ReplyDeleteAnother top up, Cordelia my dear?
DeleteCordelia's just bitter because it was too stupid to get anyone to pay it for its ravings.
DeleteI wonder if Cordelia is the love child of Jacob Rees Mogg and the demented ex-professor from Edinburgh who gets booted off twitter regularly. Now that was a sperm that swam too far.
DeletePoor Cordelia. Up half the night swilling turps again.
DeleteIt has a truly disturbing fixation on LGBT matters, as confused homophobes often do.
Poor drunken Cordelia and its homophobic confusion.
DeleteIt didn't deny the fixation, though...
Increasingly looks like Brexit may be cancelled.
ReplyDeleteIf that's the case, it will show the world that the UK can't govern itself as an independent country.
This is probably why Brits thought Scotland couldn't go it alone; they were imagining themselves at the helm.
https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1083750387637805056
ReplyDelete'Interested to hear your strategy for getting the means to hold a constitutional and binding #indyref with a result that will be recognised internationally?'
In response to people querying the likelihood of the frankly fantastical notion that we will get indyref 2 as a 'reward' for helping the Westminster parties save themselves from the mess they have made.
They'll take the help, laugh in your face, and say 'sorry, never heard of a Vow?'
Well, that's put the tin lid on it.
Might as well forget it because the strategy seems to be 'be nice to the Unionist parties, help them take away the whole reason for indyref 2 (as argued by the party now for 2+ years) and somehow it will work out and they will give us a vote?'.
I feel a bit despondent because I really don't see how this works, frankly.
If this is the tactic, we will never be independent.
And, yes, I think the SNP are the best party we have to choose from but it makes me wonder what the point of my votes was in recent years (because, laudable job that they are doing, I wasn't voting purely for managerialism but also for a vision of the (near) future).
Sore head this morning, Cordelia my darling?
DeleteOh, it's probably a bit early for you.
Still, the Ice Diamond and Popov vodka cocktails seemed a good idea at the time, I'm sure.
Another day, another hangover.
To our friends at SiU (we know you lurk here, we can hear you hyperventilating with rage): Cordelia is a stick-on for your lead spokestroll at indyref2.
DeleteAll that spittle-flecked sectarian and homophobic rage will play brilliantly on Reporting Scotland.
But it looks like Brexit will be cancelled because the British are daein another Suez / Irish indy war (etc, etc, etc) and running away.
DeleteIf so, the only clear route tae being oot the EU would be Scottish independence.
Incidentally, if Brexit is cancelled without a full referendum, then the UK isn't a democracy and Scotland needs to go for independence without question.
ReplyDeleteScotland can only (democratically choose to) stay in a democratic UK where the English + Welsh vote to exit the EU is fully respected. We cannot stand by and watch wishes of our neighbours south of the border overruled.
Also, if the UK chickens out of Brexit, we can't seriously let it run Scotland. I mean before we even get to the total incompetence + costs of refunding the EU for all the wasted time etc, how f'n embarrassing would it be to be ruled by such a great big roaster.
Skier, ye're talking nothing but sense!
DeleteThe Westminster government husnae even bothered to get a mandate for a second referendum. If it doesnay consult with the people before trying to overturn it, the folk in England and Wales huv every right to be annoyed. It'd be one thing if the Tories had said at the beginning 'vote for us for an EU Ref and a confirmatory ref on the deal' but they didnae and they're just making up the rules as they go along. So, since they didnae say that at the start, they need to have a General Election and ask for permission now.
And folk up here cheering all this on are mad as fuck; if Westminster wid just ignore the English and Welsh vote; whit chance they'd accept a future Yes vote without trying to over-turn it even withoot a mandate?
England and Wales voted for brexit, and that's what they should get unless they vote to undo that decision. Don't think I've ever argued otherwise.
DeletePersonally, I think it's a stupid idea - leaving the single market and free movement area - particularly wioot a plan, but hey, it's not up tae me as am no English/Welsh.
Scots need to accept brexit unless they want to go for independence, which they should be be free to do at a time of their choosing (i.e. Holyrood can consult them on this at any time it chooses, then act accordingly). If they want to stay in the UK, then they need to accept they have little to no say in how it is run, that England makes the decisions, that their wishes count largely for jack shit etc. That means over the cliff brexit potentially etc. Otherwise, they need show a bit ae gumption and stoan on their own twa feet under indy.
Something to look forward to if we stay in a UK which stays in the EU.
ReplyDeleteSeems the rUK is full of extreme far right voters. Straight from the horse's mouth too. Worrying.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46847169
Blocking Brexit could cause far-right surge - Grayling
Blocking Brexit could lead to a surge in far-right extremism in the UK, a senior cabinet minister has said.
He's right. We've seen what pro-brexit protests look like; National Front / BNP / EDL / UKIP etc all in attendance carrying nooses, model gallows etc.
Even if brexit is cancelled or delayed, it won't stop the UK's socio-economic & constitutional collapse. It's at the end of a long (quite typical) end of empire process that's impossible to roll back.
Ruth is a creation of the english media in Scotland. Their control is almost total but even they can't save somebody who has contradicted themselves so often and so publicly. Her new baby, if it is even hers, is her excuse for retiring from the fight.
ReplyDeleteOn another matter.
I keep seeing the claim that leslie evans can't possibly be working to destroy the SNP or Independence as she is married to an SNP member.
Apart from being an outrageous example of misogyny in suggesting that wives will vote and act as they are told by their husbands it is such a patently false premise as shown by other high profile couples.
Kezia dogface is an enemy of Scotland and has worked her entire political life to keep Scotland under english rule. She is currently shacked up with Jenny Gilruth, who is an SNP MSP, and who works every day to free Scotland from the evil of westminster abuse.
Natalie McGarry was an MP before being destroyed by the media. The attacks on her by english Ally Cameron of SIU and JK Plagiarist were not enough so they managed to get her over an accounting error.
She is married to David Meikle, a conservative councillor and active campaigner for better together and team ruth.
There will be thousands of similar cases throughout the country yet our enemies act as though this is some magic bullet which destroys all the facts showing that the ulster unionist and extreme misandrist hag is and always has been acting against Scotland. She won't accept being called a traitor, like all the yoons, as she won't see Scotland as a country. But she is one.
Have to disagree.
DeleteI do not consider unionists our enemies; they are our opponents, but also our friends and families as you have proven.
Further, they are not traitors; their vision for our Scotland differs from our own and that is all.
Talk of enemies and traitors is more suited to the likes of Cordelia and is beneath us.
Please keep up the good work toward our independence.
Aye, sah yoan rid, blue wae thurr musturt tories, brocht-up awe thoan keich agin Nicola Sturgeon - Furst Meenisturr.
ReplyDeleteYoan bloatit, leein erse Currmichull, wiz oan Radio Union thurr moarnin. Alang wae (agane), yoan goad-awfae Laird, wae twaw blue tory naurdaewahlls.