Whether any of the alternatives to the deal have a chance of passing depends essentially on two questions - a) will a second referendum be one of the options?, and b) if so, will Labour back it? On a strict reading of Labour's policy as agreed at conference, they shouldn't vote for a referendum at that stage because they wouldn't have yet tried to force a general election, which is supposed to be Step 1. But presumably Corbyn will come under pressure to bend the policy if Labour pro-Europeans feel that they've arrived at the only realistic time at which a "People's Vote" could be secured. He might try to square the circle by giving his MPs a free vote - which would almost certainly lead to the proposal being defeated. Even if he can bring himself to whip his MPs to vote in favour, though, the arithmetic would be tight.
Other than a second referendum, I can't see any of the alternatives to the May deal having a chance of attracting a majority. The Norway Plus idea would certainly be doomed to defeat, because it entails the retention of free movement, which both the Tory and Labour leaderships agree (wrongly, in my view) is inconsistent with the Leave vote in 2016.
* * *
This is real.
ReplyDeleteWe actually now have a UK government telling firms it is looking at the option of voluntarily ruining them / the economy and they've 100 days to prepare.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46610792
Brexit: 'Horrified' firms warn time is running out
This is why hundreds of thousands of EU workers are flooding out of the country, unemployment is rising, and shops are emptying of customers at a time they'd normally be packed.
The UK will very, very likely already be into recession in the new year. Certainly by the time of the exit. A recession (or at least sustained slowdown in the event of some sort of deal) that will last as long as the current political / constitutional crisis. So many, many years potentially.
Still, brexiters 'knew what they were voting for' then they voted for this. They've told us this often enough.
the UK will not be in recession by the Exit. Recession is two consecutive quarters of contraction. We are still going to have growth this quarter. So earliest could possible declared in recession is end of June.
Deletehttps://www.economicshelp.org/blog/459/economics/define-recession/
Delete"Definition of recession. In the UK a recession is a period of negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters."
---
If we get a single quarter alone of contraction, it's not a recession. If we get two quarters of contraction in succession, this is a recession, with both quarters part of that recession (by the very definition as a recession is an extented contraction).
So, we can enter a recession in the first quarter of 2019 if both it and the second quarter experience contractions. It's just we can only specifically define the these quarters as a recession in retrospect, i.e. once we have confirmation that both experienced contractions.
This isn't rocket science of course; we can never define an event by its official name until it's been confirmed as having occurred, so only ever in retrospect. That does not prevent us from experiencing the event actually as it happens, which will obviously will be the case.
So what I said is perfectly possible; we can enter and experience a recession in Q1+Q2, it’s just we might not be able to give it that label until later in the year.
BBC
ReplyDeleteSmoke and Mirrors protection for May
I strongly suspect that implementing the restrictions on "Free" movement that full EU membership already affords will be presented as "Controlled" movement.
ReplyDeleteIt would probably need ID cards, just as the majority of states in the world already have.
Parliaments task is to portray things they could already do as being getting tough without raising questions as to why they didn't already do so before now.
I see that four out of 5 oppositon parties, including British unionists (Lib Dems) tabling a vote of no confidence in the government isn't news.
ReplyDeleteThis is what you would expect in the case of corrupt political system on the verge of collapse. We are starting to see widescale news blackouts.
I suspect we shall see Corbyn stand shoulder to shoulder with May and this very system, so preventing her downfall and ensuring a damaging to potentially catastrophic brexit, dragging Scotland out of the EU with England.
That will kill the Labour vote and Scottish unionism finally. The support he was given in 2017 was the very last hope for the union. The Blairites betrayed Scotland, slashing the Labour vote nearly in half, now the 'left' may do the same, and of so it will all be over.
If Corbyn facilitates the English nationalist Tory brexit, it's #BetterTogther2, and the death of the UK Labour centre-left in Scotland.
There is an option to withdraw Article 50.
ReplyDeleteWhich is why a hard brexit cannot and will never be forgiven by the Scottish population. The UK will never be able to survive it as a result.
DeleteAnd it looks like today Corbyn will strike down the no confidence motion put forward by the Lib Dems, Greens, PC & SNP, so saving Tory bacon, ensuring they remain in charge right through brexit. Ergo any brexit damage will lie as much with Labour as with the Tories. I'm not sure Corbyn really realises what he's doing.
He may think it clever to let the Tories carry the can by refusing to pick it up, but that's not how most scots, soft unionists included, will see this. What they see is Labour leading Scotland off the cliff alongside the Tories.
It is in times of national crisis that true leaders, saviours of nations, stand up. They put the country before themselves. Corbyn seems completely averse to such a sacrifice. Quite the opposite of say, SNP MPs who fight every day to lose their jobs.
Aye Fyne...!
ReplyDeleteWhen is she 'allowing' these votes..? 28th March I expect...
just when you think the rabid britnat parliament in Westminster couldn’t be more of a world-wide laughing stock…
ReplyDeleteThis is actually what the UK is threatening other countries with.
ReplyDelete---
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-clearing/eu-says-bulk-of-uk-financial-sector-would-be-cut-off-by-no-deal-brexit-idUKKBN1OI1H6?il=0
LONDON (Reuters) - Most banking, insurance and other financial firms in Britain would be cut off from the European Union if there is a no-deal Brexit, the bloc’s executive body said on Wednesday.
---
Yeah, that will show those EU furriners who's boss. Give us a deal or we'll blow up our main source of tax revenue!
But hey, Corbyn called May a 'piece of shit' and told her to 'go back to where she came from!' is the main BBC news item.
The Norway plus will not happen,as the the other countries in this group have already said they will veto this as the UK is to large and would try to dictate policies.
ReplyDeleteNever mind,we are going to have the army to help us out.
ReplyDeleteJist ironing ma SAS shurt fur duty and leaving the EU. The Sturgeonites can choose the fascist EU or democratic Britain. The Brit Scots choose democracy.
DeleteDo yourself a favour, GWC2, and educate yourself a bit. Oh, and don't forget to take your meds.
DeleteDon't you forget to take your meds after taking it up the rear end since you were 12. We British call you and all the Nat sis like you a roaring poof. No take your high heels and hand bag and mince off to Monsuer Barney Frog's villa for a quick pugwash.
DeleteHomophobe.
DeleteHard Brexit is here Jocko chaps you may well consider going tae ROI but keep yer belt tight and look over yer shodder.
ReplyDeleteAnd I'm hard too thinking about Brexit. Monseur Barn Owl can't get it up for Nickerless to give him a happy ending.
DeleteFud.
DeleteIf Scotland is to be ruled from affar by a bunch self-interested politicians, can these at least be competent / good at negotiations?
ReplyDeleteEU ones for example. British ones are f'n useless.
It's frankly embarrassing to be 'colonised' by the UK.