In my last blogpost, I posed the question: given the entrenched positions of the DUP, the Irish government and anti-European Tory MPs, how was it even possible for a deal to be reached? Ireland required no hard border, which meant either that Britain as a whole had to remain closely aligned to the EU (ie. a soft Brexit), or there had to be a special status for Northern Ireland. The DUP's red line was no special status for Northern Ireland, which left no other option for Theresa May but to concede the principle of a soft Brexit right now - except, of course, that would be totally unacceptable to anti-European Tory MPs.
The circle has theoretically been squared today by allowing Tory MPs to retain hope that a soft Brexit can be averted by means of a special status for Northern Ireland, while also keeping the DUP on board by giving the Northern Ireland Assembly a veto on such a deal (which, given the cross-community voting arrangements in the Assembly, amounts to a DUP veto). Essentially, it's a temporary truce that hinges on the stupidity of Tory MPs - they have to believe it's possible that the DUP will eventually sign off on Northern Ireland becoming a "special administrative region", which is plainly never going to happen. When that realisation hits home, it's not hard to imagine how everything could quickly unravel, and an extreme 'no deal' Brexit could be back on the cards.
As far as the consequences for Scotland are concerned, arguably today's developments leave the Tories in an even worse position than the proposed agreement on Monday would have done. The Monday text merely conceded that one part of the UK could remain more closely aligned to the EU than other parts if it so wishes, which the Tories had previously said was impossible for Scotland. Today's text goes further and gives a devolved legislature a veto on one aspect of Brexit, which was also supposed to be completely impossible. The SNP are quite right to scent blood.
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Two new Scottish subsamples have been published since my last update -
ICM: SNP 33%, Labour 27%, Conservatives 24%, Greens 8%, Liberal Democrats 6%, UKIP 1%
YouGov: SNP 38%, Labour 30%, Conservatives 23%, Liberal Democrats 5%, Greens 2%, BNP 2%, UKIP 1%
Across all firms, twenty-seven of the last twenty-nine subsamples have put the SNP in first place.
Who cares what the polls are showing - with any hope the next vote will be Indyref2
ReplyDeleteInteresting to think about the legal position of Northern Irish residents holding Irish/EU passports/citizenship.
ReplyDeleteI'm not a lawyer so these are more questions than statements, but:
1. As EU citizens with recognised rights, will such people come under the jurisdiction of the European Courts?
2. If they fall foul of the law in Northern Ireland, will they be able to demand consular assistance from the Dept of Foreign Affairs in Dublin?
3. If non-Irish EU citizens fancy living for a while in Britain (as if!), can they just pop on the train to Belfast then the ferry to Scotland or Rumpuk?
What was all that UKIP/Gove/Patel/Brexit Campaign crap all for?
The new British passport will have a photo of the Queen or King on it and will be compulsory for Jockos and the Irish living in the UK.
DeleteThat will be a shocker for the Celik supporters going to away games with their social security vouchers. There will be three days of rage.
Come on now Wee Ruthie stop being a Fanny and post on your wee unionist sites I bet you don't even no where Glasgow is yah wee Fud never mind what Working Class is after all you have to have employment to call yourself Working class at least and since you spend all day writing pish on here you obviously don't have a proper job do you Ruthie or should I call you Kim yung11
DeleteI read somewhere that GWC stands for Gents' Water Closet.
DeleteStrange.
Wee Ruthie hiz a perrabauz.
DeleteLittle doubt now that the Tories have slipped to 3rd place again. I suspect that if this trend continues, Ruth Davidson will be forced to abandon her bid to be FM and will try to engineer a ticket to a Westminster seat. A clear Sturgeon vs Leonard contest would be hilarious. He is hopelessly out of his depth.
ReplyDeleteRD better get her skates on as there will be no place for her in an Independent Scotland.
DeleteIt would be hilarious seeing this political pygmy trundling down the A1 in her tank screaming 'No Surrender'
but Arlene, I surrender my body and my soul and my party to you.
I strongly disagree. I think that RD, and the entire centre-right, will thrive in an independent Scotland. It is their Unionism that is holding them back. Pre-independence, the centre-right can never break through the 30% barrier. Post-independence, they will rarely be under it.
DeleteThe snag is that she may not be all that interested. Her mindset is that an independent Scotland is too small a stage - she'd probably migrate south and try her luck.
DeleteKlingin tae stray young James. We are oot and ye know it.
DeleteYou are indeed a wizard with words....oops, correction, that should read, a lizard with words
DeleteGWC is actually Ruth Davidson kidding o she works Ha Ha wee Ruthie your rumbled1
DeleteLooks like the Tory-DUP Alliance have caved in to EU demands. They will deny it of course.
ReplyDeleteAlice in Herr Junckerland.
DeleteNo, GWC2, looks like England hasn't the balls or money for a hard brexit. And WTO rules are governed by law outside UK so no taking back control under a hard Brexit either.
Deletehttps://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-08/only-one-side-compromised-for-this-brexit-breakthrough
Come on now Wee Ruthie Stop it we are on to you. Now go and get a proper job since you have never had one 2 hours on a radio station doesn't count and sitting on anything you can get between your Fat arse doesn't count either. Now come on tell us something positive you have actually done
Delete"...a temporary truce that hinges on the stupidity of Tory MPs".
ReplyDeleteIs there any verified instance anywhere in the records of anybody ever going broke betting on the stupidity of Tory MPs?
Wonder if Southend on Sea Conservative Association will be willing to give her a berth? Kensington and Chelsea will be looking for a new candidate to take on their new Labour MP, so there may be a chance for her there.
ReplyDeleteShe was rejected by a constituency in Berkshire or some other back of beyond place in SE England. Among the reasons for rejection was her uncouth accent.
Delete