I suppose I should be claiming the prediction of the year, because I did say when the general election was called in the spring that Kezia Dugdale's days as Scottish Labour leader were probably numbered. But I must admit I was expecting the resignation to happen after Labour's vote share went down, not after a mini-recovery. As far as public appearances were concerned, there's been no pressure on her at all since the election.
So what does this all mean? A Corbynite takeover? Maybe...or maybe not. Remember how well Owen Smith did in Scotland. This is a Blairite party to its core, or at least it was until very recently. We could be in for a handover to yet another dreary clone, which to be fair might even be preferable to Neil Findlay.
UPDATE : Some really heartening news for the SNP in the Scottish subsample from the new Britain-wide YouGov poll. They're ahead of Labour by 38% to 28%, with the Tories yet again in third place on just 23%. YouGov subsamples should probably be taken a little more seriously than subsamples from other firms, because they appear to be separately weighted (although they still have a big margin of error due to the sample size).
Not quite such good news from the new ICM subsample, although of course that one isn't correctly weighted. Labour are very slightly ahead on 32%, with the SNP on 31% and the Tories on 27%.
Across all firms, the SNP have now had the lead in ten out of eighteen subsamples published since the election, and have been ahead of Labour in eleven out of eighteen.
Strategic repositioning to the left to take maximum advantage of Corbynmania. Kez can still serve in some capacity - just not as leader.
ReplyDeleteThe tenure as branch manager seems to be getting shorter and shorter.
ReplyDeleteThe next incumbent is probably looking at months rather than years.
A socialist transgender next before Labour wake up and remember the working classes.
DeleteWith each dud that falls away, the chances increase of someone coming along with enough skill and / or pure luck to actually get somewhere.
DeleteI think the next Labour leader will become First Minister, unless they are literally so thick they can't tie their own shoelaces.
I just hope it isn't Murphy.
Aldo
The colossus you're looking for just isn't there. Alex Rowley is probably their best bet, but he's not exactly Barack Obama.
DeleteI will stand for the Labour leadership with the understanding that it will be on a nationalisation without compensation ticket. The MSP'S will be cut by half and we will leave the mafia led corrupt EU...Glasgow Celtic will burn the Irish tri colour and display the Union Flag on all corners of their paddy stadium and the 12th of July cdlebrations will become a Scottish national holiday,
DeleteDewar, McConnell and Sturgeon weren't / aren't colossal. Yet all won elections.
DeleteAlso, the pendulum is swinging back. No great skill required - just a few more years of SNP incumbency.
Two of those three are/were very weighty political leaders. Nicola Sturgeon is the most talented politician of her generation in the whole UK.
DeleteJack McConnell is the odd one out and his electoral record is scarcely stellar, in spite of just about holding onto power in 2003.
I'd offer the people 'virtual indy' if I were Scottish Labour leader. A sort of 'try before you buy' deal. Five years of full fiscal autonomy, if the UK government is agreeable to it. We spend what we raise, nothing else. At the end of the 5 years if there is still anyone left in Scotland, the people will destroy Labour for the misery visited upon them and annihilate the SNP and Greens for suggesting it be made permanent. That leaves a Tory-LibDem hegemony. I can live with that.
DeleteDewar was a dour man and a poor speaker. Sturgeon walked right into a trap a few months ago. I would say none of Scotland's leaders have been particularly noteworthy, except Salmond. I will give him a grudging respect.
DeleteAldo
What 'trap' did Sturgeon walk into? You mean the trap that won her a landslide victory at the general election?
DeleteEverything is relative James. She lost 21 of 56 seats including two very bright stars and fell from 50% support to 37%. If your kid went from an A grade to a C grade, you'd be quite concerned.
DeleteAldo
35 out of 59 seats is 60% - the same perecentage of seats Mrs Thatcher won in her 1987 landslide. Are you saying you'd only give Mrs Thatcher a C grade?
DeleteAnd on that bombshell...
Yes, in terms of seats won. But Thatcher never held any high stakes, two option referenda that her government simply had to win in order to advance its reason for being. Different situation.
DeleteAldo
What are you wittering about now? If you're talking about the indyref, that was held before Nicola Sturgeon became leader.
DeleteI'm not sure Nicola Sturgeon is as talented as you believe James. Independence has stalled and the unionist parties are becoming popular again. A leader like Alex Salmond would find some way to arrest the decline. But Nicola is struggling. Regards.
DeleteThere will be a revolt amongst the Labour MSPs if Findlay takes over. He is a maverick amongst the labour contingent in the Scottish Parliament. On Kezia, I wonder if Jenny Gilruth has had an affect on Kezia's politics. I wouldn't be surprised if she comes out in support of a referendum on Independence.
ReplyDeleteImmediate expulsion if that happens.
DeleteAldo
Don't be daft. I'd be very surprised if she does that, but it's not an expulsion offence even in Labour.
DeleteIf an SNP politician backed the union, they'd be out. Labour not matching that policy like for like is a terrible sign of weakness - and precisely why so many people have taken to voting Tory.
DeleteAldo
I'm not sure it's true that an SNP politician opposing independence would be expelled. They'd probably find it hard to be reselected, but that's a different matter.
DeleteThey'd be hounded most likely.
DeleteThere must be SNP people who doubt independence - unless 40 year olds exactly agree with their earlier 16 year old selves. But, a bit like gay footballers, they'll remain in hiding.
Again - don't be daft. People have plenty of time between their 16th birthday and getting anywhere near to elected office.
DeleteNot if you're Mhairi Black or Ross Greer.
DeleteEven if you're Mhairi Black or Ross Greer (who are the exceptions, not the rule) you have several years.
DeleteSturgeon joined the SNP at 16. What age is she now? 56? The same views, all those years, with not a shred of doubt, ever? Seems unlikely.
DeleteSigh. The point I'm making is that Sturgeon did not become an elected politician until she was almost 29. If she had any doubts about independence, she had plenty of time for reflection before she was in any sense 'boxed in'.
DeleteShe's currently 47, by the way.
Aldo, exactly do you know there are gay footballers hiding? Where are they? Lol!
DeleteAldo is alluding to the fact that not a single professional footballer in the UK is openly gay. Statistically, it's certain there must be a great many gay players.
DeleteBut they don't come out because football is a bit of a knuckle dragger's sport if we're being perfectly honest. The one guy who did come out ended up killing himself.
DeleteAldo
I'm guessing
ReplyDeleteCorbyn asked for 100% loyalty , and Kezia wouldn't give it
She does not do blow jobs.
DeleteWould anyone be prepared to take up that task when Jeremy is the recipient?
DeleteAldo
Spit it out you heretic.
DeleteDianne Abbott:
DeleteOooooooooo....Jeremy! Can I do it again??
Jeremy:
I was hoping Caroline Flint would.
Seriously , pretty sure you two would do it for a tax reduction! The amount of time you spend on sex comments...
DeleteMy guess is that Dugdale has decided that when it comes to political unions of which Scotland is a member, the EU has priority over the UK. While she might not make any public statements about it (I think she'll avoid giving the other parties the ammo that Johann Lamont did), I suspect that the dissonance between what policies she's allowed to back as SLab leader and what she personally supports became too much.
ReplyDeleteShe may also be tired of having to oppose the SNP even when there was no ideological conflict between her party's policies and those of the SNP, and align with the Tories, with whom her party has (or should have) fundamental differences on just about everything. That would certainly grind me down.
The Corbyn mob have forced her hand. It's a purge. Nothing more complicated than that.
DeleteBut why now? Both Holyrood and the last GE are long over and there is nothing on the political horizon that would force her out and it's not like she was facing any kind of leadership challenge within her own ranks. Besides, there isn't much evidence of a "Corbyn mob" in Scotland. Scottish Labour were the one subset of Labour party members to vote for Owen Jones in the last leadership election.
DeleteCorbynmania hit the Labour party in Scotland on June 9th of this year, when they ended up with 7 seats instead of the expected 0.
DeleteWho knows when the next GE or Holyrood election will be? The GE could come at any time and Holyrood could dissolve itself earlier than 2019 if Sturgeon thinks there is some strategic benefit. So Labour needs to sort itself out now, for who knows what tomorrow will bring?
Aldo
*earlier than 2021
Delete@Anonymous
DeleteExcept during Saint Jeremy's coming north to preach to the natives he was allowed such howlers as saying it would be disastrous if Scotland had a separate legal system and campaigned on matters the Scottish govt had already fixed.
He would have relied on the local party to advise on such things and he was a laughing stock as a result.
So, either Dugdale and SLAB deliberately hung him out to dry or the party machine she presided over is a deep, deep shambles. Either way the buck stopped at her door.
Add in her less than fulsome support of Corbyn and lacklustre performance and perceived lackness on the Constitutional issue (going out with an SNP MSP) and I expect the likes of McTernan had the knives out for her.
She is a hibs supporter we only have WATP FTP GSTQ fans as leaders
ReplyDeleteI hope I never hear or see from this woman again. We need a Labour Leader that will support Scotland and our Country's Interest but that will never happen when the money flow comes from London.
ReplyDeleteConsidering we get far more than we put in what do you suggest is the alternative! Money from Frankfurt perhaps!!
DeleteAnd what are the fash doing with the money? 700 teachers short in Scotland. No wonder Swinson won.
When I went to St Mungo's there were plenty of teachers.Now no one will teach the weans to be good bigots, its all inclusive this and fair that. Bring back the good old days WATP FTP GSTQ
DeleteSix hundred and ninety, old bean. Not seven hundred, as you pontificate. See how you can turn that, into a sectarian rant.
DeleteHome-economics, is for robots.
Frau Knickerless wee shmellie fishy drawers tae sell out Scotland tae ra German Nat sis and the Herman Frankfurt bank.
DeleteHoots man ra noo we Brtitish are still around ye ken ra noo.
State of this.
DeleteNot a bad time to go actually.
ReplyDeleteOn the UK Labour front, Corbyn is secure and the party is out of the crisis they were in last year. So leaving won't be seen as part of some kind of coup attempt.
On the Scottish front, they've got out of the worst of the ditch they were in after the utter hammering they took post referendum. Their numbers are up on par with the SNP and she won't be accused of walking away and leaving a mess for her successor. Overall Labour is in better shape than the midden she inherited from Murphy.
So the only other thing left would be a crack at becoming First Minister, and that's years away, even assuming things stay the same, which they undoubtedly won't.
Add in the fact that she's clearly not on the same page as Corbyn, and I think she's made a pretty good call.
Took over, tidied up, put things on a more even keel, then left.
The big problem with that analysis is that the small improvement in Labour's position has nothing to do with her.
DeleteArguably yes, but reflected glory is glory nonetheless. Had they continued to decline I'm sure there would be no shortage of people putting the blame squarely on her shoulders.
DeleteGiven where they were when Murphy resigned she's got to feel reasonably happy with how things have turned out, Corbyn effect or no.
She's certainly not going to go down in history as one of Labour's great leaders by any stretch, I think she probably did about as well as anyone could have expected her to.
You mean, apart from the slipping to third place thing? Not even Jackanory Jim managed that.
DeleteAt least the dug didn't boast that she was going to destroy the SNP only to get hammered by them a few months later, like Murphy did. That was a real facepalm moment.
DeleteIt is possible that, though Corbyn is pretty much serving up what Tories are doing with Brexit, he might say no working with Tories, which would put just about every Labour Councillor in Scotland in deep shit.
ReplyDeleteTwo new subsamples out:
ReplyDeleteLabour 1 point over SNP (ICM)
SNP 10 points over Labour (YouGov)
Aldo
You did read the blogpost you're responding to, yeah?
DeleteNever got that far down. Just assumed it was about the dug resigning.
DeleteAldo
I think Corbyn pushed her out up here because he desperately wants Dugdale's successor's vote to place one person onto the party's NEC. South of the border, the big prize is the NEC seat. At the moment it is hung. With a new Corbynite appointed to the NEC it tips the balance of the party’s ruling executive to a narrow majority in favour of Corbyn.
ReplyDeleteDugdale clearly fed up, like Lamont before her, really has put the cat among the pigeons. If SLAB elect another Blairite, Corbyn's power expansion is halted but if a Corbynite gets elected and appoints a similar Corbynite to the party's NEC, it secures Corbyn for the forseeable future.
Was this Dugdale's own revenge on her party?
James, are you throwing your hat in the ring for Labour leader? You would have a good chance at getting in on name recognition alone! (If you have watched "The Distinguished Gentleman" you'll know what I mean... ;) )
ReplyDeleteTHAT'S NOT THE POINT, MINISTER.
DeleteThe dug could have come under the influence of her new nat si burd. A defection to the fash could be imminent.... Then she would be a nat si heroine
ReplyDeleteStane ower yoanurr, tae crawl unnurr.
DeleteDepressing to think someone would abandon their principles for that reason.
DeleteAldo
The Nat sis are shitting themselves to go for a referendum.
DeleteAll the crap they spouted since September 14 and here we are, Nae referendum.
Even their English hating racist fascist supporters have gone stumn.
To be fair, they did try to hold one. But then the May fuhrer told them naw and they suffered heavy losses in the election. So we're now effectively back to pre March with all the likely / possibly / maybe talk again.
DeleteBookies say 70% chance of no indyref this Scottish Parliament.
Correction: 73% chance of no indyref this parliament.
DeleteFor each of the years 2018 to 2021, the odds range from 5/1 to 12/1. It only becomes odds on when it gets to '2022 or later'.
I tip Matt kerr as a future Labour leader. He almost took the Glasgow South West seat from the Nat sis.
ReplyDeleteA genuine campaigner against poverty in Glasgow.
Labour need to concentrate in exposing the Yellow Tory/ Blue Tory policies that are creating a massive wealth divide in Scotland. The failed legacy of the Tartan Tories will be food banks, beggars on the streets, the NHS and education. A failure to nationalise public transport without compensation.
Sweet of you to think that Labour voters in Glasgow South-West knew anything about the person they were nominally voting for.
DeleteSweet of you to reply young James...But ignore the other issues mentioned...
DeleteThat is how you Nat sis operate...
You shouldn't call them nazis gwc. The nazis were organised and efficient.
DeleteThat is why the Jock nat sis want to be dominated by Germany.
DeleteThe yearning for a fuhrer is strong in them.
DeleteAm ragin man! Pure beelin! Why have we no got independence yet? Why is ra news full o this WEE LASSIE!!?? Stupit red Tories still get aw the publicity even wi 20 seats. Am so fckin ragin an beelin, av just destroyed ma coffee table! Thanks a lot Kezia Dugface!!!
ReplyDeleteYou need to be patient. The FM is trying her best. I'm sorry you are annoyed but wrecking a table is just stupid. This kind of thing just plays into the hands of the yoons. We need to appear reasonable.
DeleteA two legged coffee table!..At least the media are not mentioning Tartan Tory policies.
DeleteFrau Knickerless says it will be Autumn 2018. Wee smelly drawers hedging her bets.
DeleteWe should be well out of the EU by then.
Years to secure a referendum. Then years to campaign. Then years to become independent, assuming a yes. Then years to rejoin the EU.
DeleteThey have 3 years and 9 months. Tick tock.
Correction: 3 years, 8 months, 1 week.
DeleteMingo Mean Time.
DeleteYou need some Vitamin D, old chap. Try that big glowing ball in the sky.
DeleteA sharp ten minutes, should see you right.