After last week's dodgy poll from the Daily Record with the leading question, we have a more neutrally-worded poll from ScotPulse on an independence referendum, and unsurprisingly it produces a radically different result.
A total of 30% of respondents want an independence referendum either before or after Brexit. A further 22% say their view on a referendum will depend on how Brexit works out. The speed-counters among you will already have spotted that this means a slim majority (52%) are open to the idea of a referendum. Only 48% are opposed.
For the avoidance of doubt, the actual results of this poll are good news. After the relentless and almost comical propaganda of the last couple of weeks, you'd expect support for a referendum to be at an unusual low (not least because natural supporters of a referendum will be feeling cowed at the moment). So for a poll to show a majority are still open to the idea is very heartening.
The bad news, however, is that we know of old that ScotPulse polls are not correctly weighted, so how much credibility today's results have is anyone's guess.
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ReplyDeleteThe Scots unfortunately has been cowed by the English, not much Viking blood left in the scots. I wish all the best for the scots, but I for one have lost hope and are returning to Denmark.
ReplyDeletePretty sure the English are more Viking than we are.
Delete(Not that your genetic ancestry makes any difference to your personality anyway)
Why are the 22% undecideds being added to one side but not the other?
ReplyDeleteIf you were a Leaver then you could spin it the other way and say 70% of people are open to NOT having another referendum.
It's misleading to call them "undecideds" - they didn't repond with a 'don't know'. Their position is in between support and opposition, but it is perfectly accurate to say that 52% are open to the idea of having a referendum.
Delete"70% of people are open to NOT having a referendum" is a bloody odd formulation of words, but feel free to go down that road if you want to.
Interestingly Herald Scotland is running a poll on their article about Mundell telling the FM to take a second referendum off the table or risk losing her job. The question is simply:
ReplyDeleteDo you want a second independence referendum?
So far 16K votes cast, 81% yes, 19% no
Now I understand that not all the readers are Scottish and there's no weighting and people can vote more than once (although I can't see anyone doing that for any length of time - it doesn't count for anything after all).
I just wanted to say that when you strip out all the conditionals and just make it a simple question like that, maybe there really is a decent majority for a second ref. I'd really love to know.
Boy is this delusional.
ReplyDeleteTo think that ALL of the 32% who want to see the outcome of Brexit and then make a decision will all vote for independence is rather fanciful.
The polls are pretty clear and barring the odd blip are remarkably consistent, its a 45% yes to a 55% No.
The sooner you wake up and smell the coffee the better, why you insist on continually deluding yourselves I really don't know.
1) The figure for those who want to wait and see is 22%, not 32%.
Delete2) I cannot find a single comment on this thread to the effect that "all of those 22% will vote for independence".
Apart from those minor quibbles, what a fabulous contribution, Mr Anon. You're absolutely correct to say that support for independence has remained high and stable.