A number of people on social media today raised an eyebrow or two at YouGov findings that show people who voted SNP in 2015 were significantly more likely to simply stay at home in the 2017 election than voters for any other party (with the exception of UKIP). This has raised the possibility that much of the swing from the SNP to the Tories and Labour was caused by SNP abstentions, rather than net movement from one side to the other.
Unfortunately, there isn't enough information in the datasets to draw such a strong conclusion. This is a GB-wide poll, and the SNP's abstention rate is not being compared with that of the Scottish Tories or Scottish Labour, but with the Tories and Labour across Britain as a whole. That's bound to give a misleading impression, because turnout in Scotland dropped by several points this year, whereas it rose south of the border.
The most that can be said, therefore, is that this poll is consistent with the theory that the SNP suffered from differential turnout, but it doesn't provide proof. If that is what happened, presumably there were independence supporters who were fired up in the immediate aftermath of the 2014 referendum, but who this time weren't sufficiently inspired by the rather vague (and bland?) "Stronger for Scotland" message. I suspect the SNP missed a trick by downplaying independence during the campaign - they were probably worried about losing No voters, but the pre-election polls suggested most of those people had already drifted off anyway.
The poll's oddest finding is that, even after abstainers are excluded, only 33% of people who voted Plaid Cymru in 2015 stuck with the party this year. The equivalent figure for the SNP is 71%. It's hard not to be sceptical about that finding, because Plaid's vote share only slipped 1.7% (and they made a net gain of one seat!).
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The abstention rate would appear to mirror my feelings during the election. No enthusiasm for that election and very few window posters compared to 2015. The 2015 election had a buzz, the recent one was very flat.
ReplyDeleteI'd say this is pretty obvious.
ReplyDeleteExcept "abstention" sounds a bit pre-meditated. I'd say it was more apathy than a conscious decision to abstain.
I also think, the polling notwithstanding, that some independence supporters voted Labour because of Corbyn, especially some younger ones.
One of the drivers for independence is the fact that Scotland votes Labour but gets Tory government. And when a Labour government came along in 1997 it was Blair, Iraq, pro-big business - a cruel joke after waiting so long.
There is a slight sense that, if the UK could elect Corbyn, it might not be so bad after all.
We'll see how it plays out. If Corbyn gets elected and keeps good on his policies many independence supporters will be pleased with that. But if Corbyn fails to get power it could be game on again for independence.
Hopefully this will have a.ready played out by 2020 or whenever it is we have the referendum.
I think the slim chance of Corbyn becoming PM hinges on there being another election very quickly. By 2020, his momentum will have dissipated and the Labour in-fighting will be back with a vengeance.
DeleteThere's a case to be made that Corbyn's success actually makes a formal Labour split more likely, not less likely.
Corbyn is passing through time. Labour know they have to unite. Dan Jarvis is a possibility.
DeleteExcept for the fact that a piece of grey cardboard has more life about it than Dan Jarvis...
DeleteNow if it were Johnny Jarvis...
You know what, I'm not so sure now. When Jez backed calling the election, I thought he had actually lost it mentally. He was 100% going to absolutely tank. I genuinely thought it'd be the end of him. But then he pulled his MagicManifesto out of the bag, and now look at him. They're chanting his name at Glastonbury.
DeleteI know he's not a young fella, and that a politician's momentum ebbs and flows and will wain in the end, but on the other hand he's not a wave-rider either. In a double-clutch gearbox world he drives a lawnmower. He gets excited about pullovers and trowel technique and couldn't give a shit about a peerage or vajazzling. If he wains before the next election it'll be through ill health or because politics has changed around him, but it won't be because he's strayed from the path or burnt himself out. If that was the case then it would've happened by now. He's the tortoise to Theresa's hare. Even the Blairites are becoming less openly hostile to him (for that reason alone I wouldn't write him off before the next election).
Unfortunately, his popularity WILL take votes from the SNP. Yes, I know that technically it shouldn't matter as SLAB is to Labour what Devito is to Arnie, but too many folk still see anything with the word Labour in it and get all myopic. Right now he's in the ascendancy, but there's a while to go and anything could happen. We shouldn't auto-write him off, and we definitely shouldn't bank on it happening either.
Plaid's vote tanked everywhere outside the seats they took and Blaenau Gwent, as pretty much everyone outside of winnable Plaid seats (minus Ynys Mon, which was heartbreaking), voted Labour, having been terrified by one of the few Welsh polls which were taken showing the Tories massively in front. 'We've got to vote Labour to keep the Tories out' was the cry, and it screwed Plaid everywhere outside the heartlands.
ReplyDeleteEven so, their Wales-wide vote didn't drop catastrophically, so if they really did lose two-thirds of their 2015 voters (which seems unlikely), that must have been partly offset by gains from elsewhere.
DeleteI'll always turn out to vote but I have to say I've got a lot of political apathy right now & nothing about the SNP's campaign did anything to change that. Multiply my apathy several fold & you'll get the SNP supporters who didn't even bother voting.
ReplyDeleteThe Nat sis did turn out because of their anti British and English hatred. And they were trashed by the Unionist vote. So fascists go for a referendum. PLEASE DO IT. We Brits will trash and end you. Up yer kilts fash.
ReplyDeleteThat's nice, dear.
DeleteNow, don't you have immigrants to scream at? Run along.
There may be an insight into what happened in Wales on the JackOTheNorth blog site about Tesco Call Centres. It is linked to the recent Voter polling by phone, and hand in hand collusion by Labour and the Tories over vunerable seats.
ReplyDeleteGo to Munguins Republic, from there to National Left and scroll down.
Sorry not able to do the link.
Tesco Call Centres backed by the Russians fixed the election! Duh.
DeleteAnd in other news, mighty Britannia defeats all Johnny Foreigners with the temerity to backchat at the Brexiteers negotiations...
DeleteNow, whenever you're ready, trot off back to the Dreary Heil.
so says the Britnat who wants no johnny foreigner
ReplyDeleteI very much suspect that is the case. To use a game quote: They need to take their balls out of their purse and kick some ass.
ReplyDeleteMay was pushed into a snap election she obviously did not want. She was given a crap campaign and poorly "advised" to avoid the public. The tories could have won their landslide had they campaigned on BREXIT. The reason they did not is because it is not what their globalist masters wanted. A resurgent Labour party actually suits their agenda. The purpose of the snap election was to destroy nationalism and return to the pretend class, left-right balance. UKIP is gone, BREXIT in a mess, and the SNP is reduced, so we have to conclude they had some success.
ReplyDeleteOne of the factors that is not being given enough consideration is that the recent GE underscored the lack of relevance of Westminster politics for the day to day governance of Scotland. There was little that the SNP could put in the manifesto that reflected actions that its Westminster MPs could take to change anything that affected Scotland. In debates, the FM was asked about Scottish Government issues (health, education) rather than Westminster issues because these are the questions that matter to people when deciding to vote. For me, this has two implications. First, the SNP, Commonweal, James, Wings, and other political educators, could do more to inform people about the ways that Westminster and Edinburgh decision-making fits together. Second, the SNP needs to be clearer in any future GE manifestos about exactly what is to be gained by voting for an SNP MP in London, rather than for an MP from one of the UK-wide parties. This is, of course, a matter of some urgency given the likelihood that the next GE might happen quite soon.
ReplyDeleteThe Tories always get their vote out,whatever the weather.
ReplyDeleteThose Scots who voted Labour would do well to remember that England normally elects Tory governments and most of the time that is what determines Scotland's government as well.
Corbyn won't be around forever and England will return to it's electoral roots.
Vote Labour get Tory.
It is ironic that the solid Tory voters are the people who spat on the police at the rolling stone or later punk rock concerts in the 60's and 70's and were fearful that their " tea parties" would get busted by the fuzz.old people vote more often because they have been going to the same polling place or similar for years. These frequent elections have resulted in higher youth turnout. If their is no big election til 2022 their will be millions of younger voters trying to figure out where to vote.
ReplyDeleteIt may well turn out to be the case that 'the next political cylce' takes far longer than Yes supporters would like. That the next IndyRef will be fought in 10 years once Brexit has bedded in and politics as usual has descended across the UK, only then will the contrasts with Scotland's Future in Scotland's Hands be a clear enough message to cut through all the other noise taking place at the time. The important point is to keep the powder dry and wait for the right time, events dear boy, events...
ReplyDeleteOK, let's examine when the right time to hold a referendum would be. One obvious prerequisite is that there needs to be a pro-independence majority at Holyrood when the moment comes. We know for a fact (or virtually for a fact) that there will be a pro-indy majority until May 2021. Beyond that, nobody has a clue.
DeleteSomething that should be remembered by those who keep saying "why are the SNP in charge of ScotRef?".
DeleteWell said George!
DeleteTory HQ prepping their candidates for another election.
ReplyDeleteDont think May will last till Autumn. All this soft brexit talk will be angering the backbenches.