Sunday, March 12, 2017

Braveheart pensioners sound death-knell for the Union, as bombshell poll reveals almost one-third of over-60s will vote YES to independence

The Sunday Post have an odd habit of commissioning Scottish polls among over-60s only.  Admittedly, that carries the advantage for them of generating artificially good numbers for both the Tories and the anti-independence camp, but there comes a point where they should really take a step back and remind themselves that the minimum voting age in this country is 16 and not 60.  Nevertheless, they're beside themselves with excitement today at the news that their latest over-60s poll conducted by Survation has apparently produced figures of Yes 30%, No 70%.

Because their website is still stuck in the stone age, all I've got to go on at the moment is a screenshot of the front page of their print edition, which seems to imply that these numbers represent some kind of swing to No since a previous comparable poll.  The last pensioners' poll I can recall was last Easter, but I'm not sure whether it asked a question about independence, and unfortunately the datasets are missing from the Survation website (or the link isn't where it should be, at the very least).  There was also a pensioners' poll about a month prior to the first indyref which put Yes on 37% and No on 63%, so perhaps that's the swing being referred to.  But these are online polls we're talking about, which are conducted among volunteer panels.  Over-60s resident in Scotland must make up a very small percentage of Survation's volunteer panel, so it's at least open to question whether a sample of 1000 people is going to be properly representative of the target population.  As with all of Survation's polls, it also has to be borne in mind that post-indyref polling is not directly comparable with pre-indyref polling, because weighting by recalled referendum vote has been introduced to tackle a previous inbuilt skew towards Yes.  It's conceivable that may have had a particularly exaggerated effect upon this particular segment of the Survation panel (if so, we should see signs of extreme weighting when the datasets appear).

Certainly if there had been a genuine swing to No among pensioners, you'd expect to see some evidence of it in the age-based subsamples of other independence polls.  And yet the Ipsos-Mori poll a couple of days ago put support for Yes among over-55s at 40% - that's 7% higher than in the same firm's final poll of the 2014 campaign, suggesting if anything that the pro-Yes swing may be strongest among older people.  Survation's own final telephone poll of the 2014 campaign reported a Yes vote of 29% among over-65s.  Even allowing for the somewhat more pro-Yes tendencies among the 60-64 age group, that implies the Yes vote among over-60s in general was no higher than the low 30s - ie. the difference from today's poll is not significant.  And the final Panelbase poll of the 2014 campaign put Yes support among over-55s at 38% - not meaningfully higher than the 35% recorded in the most recent Panelbase poll for Wings.

To be fair, it's perfectly true that any swing to No among pensioners would be a cause for some concern, even if it has been offset (or more than offset) by movement to Yes among younger people.  The reason is that pensioners are more likely to physically turn out to vote.  But I'm struggling to see any compelling evidence that such a swing has actually occurred.

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62 comments:

  1. Up watching France beat Italy in rugby...still don't get it all...how many old people in Scotland regularly use internet?

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  2. The difference in whether you use the internet has more to do with income than age. A lot of now pensioners started using computers and the internet at work. The old 'pensioners don't know what a computer is' assumption is false, but those from a labourer background or homemaker background are less likely to use it having not started during their working life.

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    1. Didn't mean it as snarky! But I mean, is an 80 year old ? I also get the income part. I just think polling old people this way is foolish, you could poll Americans 18-25 by mail or home phone, but what good would it do.? Monarch of the glenn is year2000 and they meet because she has to go to a call box, right? I am an American and get it us a tv show, but how many regular 70 year olds ..time to go to bed. Thanks!

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    2. Old folk in general have common sense and go out and vote as they have a sense of responsibility and the majority have probably struggled to make ends meet.
      Some of us have a sense of history and can spot con merchants the minute they open their gubs. Thus the reason the Nat sis lost the referendum.

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    3. The troll calls Scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate speech, praises Theresa May and the Tories, and displays a perverted and poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

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    4. I have used the internet for 20 odd years and did computer coding before there was a thing called an operating system but I know a lot of people my age who never touch a computer.
      When reading polls remeber that the only poll that has any meaning and you get exactly what you expect is the pole the girl dances around.

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  3. I would suggest that Sunday Post Poll demonstrates that the over 60s have lived long enough to wisely know what is good for them and the country.OK I acknowledge that they may accept that Scotland may eventually vote for independence but,crucially,for the moment that age group does not wish for the divisiveness of another Referendum.
    Incidentally, last year's figures were Yes 35.6% No 64.4%.This year's are Yes 30% and No 70%. I am also surprised that there is no reference to Nicola's further fall in the popularity ratings.

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    1. We have conducted a check on your prolife. Your account appears to have been set up for the sole reason of trolling.

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    2. I have been called many things in my life but I am certainly not a so-called troll!.I am just someone who wishes to seek views as well as dispute those I disagree with, particularly when only one side of the argument is presented!
      Its called democracy!

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    3. Please give us your source for your claim about "Nicola's further fall in the popularity ratings".

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    4. Not true. You were trolling big time yesterday including some grubby comment on the rugby. You've been called out correctly.

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    5. Today's Sunday Post re fall in ratings.

      Re the rugger,you clearly have no sense of humour! Liven up for goodness sake!!

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  4. I do not believe that people in my age group are particularly wedded to the British state.
    It's just that they have been exposed to the unrelenting propaganda from the London establishment for longer than younger folk.
    The focus of this propaganda has been to make Scots feel bad about themselves and their country,promoting a culture of apathy and dependency aka the cringe.
    We will,unfortunately not change this attitude in my lifetime and if we are to win the next referendum will need to galvanise the younger voters and ensure that they turn out to vote.
    Don't waste time on the Sunday Post and Daily Mail readers,they are not the future.

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    1. Sadly, you're probably right about the majority of pensioners. There are some who are independence supporters but convincing the rest is probably largely a lost cause. Part of what cost the last indyref was a disappointing turnout amongst young voters. That can't be allowed to happen again. They must not only say they support it. They need to turn out to vote for it which will take work.

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  5. You also might have mentioned that the grim reaper is scything the NOs over 65 out of the way leaving the newly 16s and higher YES demographics to move up an age group. On that basis and off the cuff I make it a net gain of 200,000 to YES.

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    1. Well, I wouldn't have mentioned that, because as you know I don't believe it works that way.

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    2. Aw come on James, you are ruining the fun! Why don't you do it the correct way to see if there is something for YES.

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    3. And where will all those over 16s go for work when we are in competition with England for the first time since 1707. ...Have you Nat sis got some cunning plan up your sleeves? ....If so please reveal it soon! ....Will it be a Scottish currency or will you grovel to the EU for the euro?

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    4. The troll calls Scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate speech, praises Theresa May and the Tories, and displays a perverted and poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

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    5. Isn't the troll just a simple minded UKIPPER?

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    6. GWC2 They will go to work in the many offices created to deal with Scottish affairs, they could join the 20000 strong Scottish Defence Group, they could work in any of the businesses already established in Scotland or work for the new companies who emigrate from rUK. The problem you have is your closed mind, you haven't a clue how strong the Scottish economy is because you would rather believe everything The Sun tells you even though it is clear you have, at your fingertips, the greatest research tool ever.

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    7. "Why don't you do it the correct way to see if there is something for YES."

      What is the "correct way"?

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    8. I don't know! I was flying a kite based on simple hatched and despatched figures.

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    9. There's a fairly well observed trend towards conservatism as people age. The young tend to be more radical and less risk-averse (on average of course, there are always exceptions in either direction).

      Remember all those free love Baby Boomers? Woodstock? The 60s? If they stayed that way we'd be so far left by now that Jeremy Corbyn would look like Douglas Carswell.

      So yes, the old 'No' demographic dies off a bit. But everyone else ages too, and the average age continues to move slowly to the right due to falling birth rates and better healthcare.

      So any impact is not going to be huge, especially over the space of 2-3 years.

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    10. How will Scots do competing with the English. Unfettered, for the first time in 300 years, they will thrive.pretty sure the adams's kicked the whole empire in the ass 70 years later and Americans of scotch descent also. Just look at entertainment, so many performers are told they suck and are not allowed on bbc ocho, never mind bbc one, then become stars the world over after they leave.

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    11. Its always assumed that folk get more conservative as they get older.Thats no doubt true,but now the whole status quo has been shot to pieces all bets are off.People who are going into that conservative phase are a whole lot younger than the average victim of Mr Reaper.They have been citizens of the EU most of their adult lives.They voted overwhelmingly to Remain in the EU.None of this is really relevant in the two year referendum timescale we seem to be looking at,but it's interesting to note that,if the union is to survive in the long term,current Yes voters MUST move over to No.

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  6. Some hiv wan fit in grave and by the time the fash call a referendum if they hiv the bottle then it will be less votes for the Union. If the Nat sis hing oan aboot ten years then most of us Unionist muppets will be in fairyland.

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    1. The troll calls Scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate speech, praises Theresa May and the Tories, and displays a perverted and poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

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  7. Troll Watch, when you say 'we' I assume there is more than one NAZI fuckwitt out there in cyberspace.

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    1. We have conducted a check on your prolife. Your account appears to have been set up for the sole reason of trolling.

      You may return to your previous berth at Stormfront Lite now.

      Delete
  8. Thank you for admitting that you are a NAZI fuckwit, GWC2!

    The troll calls Scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate speech, praises Theresa May and the Tories, and displays a perverted and poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

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  9. The Scotnats NEVER use the term Bravehearts, that is the exclusive territory of the Unionists who can't come up with any real argument against independence so just call people names or swear.

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  10. You will no doubt be pleased to hear that, as a result of the many sad invective comments,with the standard of English in many of the exchanges demonstrating what is wrong with Scotland's education system, and many refusing to enter into any reasonable/sensible debate,I feel there is no point in continuing with this website!!!!

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    1. Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out.

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    2. Sadly your comment says it all!

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    3. Fair Play. This is how the Nat sis operate. Subject matter is ignored by them. Only independence matters the consequences are irrelevant as is the welfare of the Scottish people. They are anti English fanatics who would throw away Scottish sovereignty to the EU such is their hatred..

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    4. We have conducted a check on your prolife. Your account appears to have been set up for the sole reason of trolling.

      You may return to your previous berth at Stormfront Lite now.

      Delete
    5. You are probably not compostable and a complete useless waste.

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    6. The troll calls Scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate speech, praises Theresa May and the Tories, and displays a perverted and poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

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  11. As a pensioner the only misgiving I have about independence concererns the value of my state pension once the economies diverge. Once Scotland is unshackled from the corpse any pensions paid in English currency would in my opinion be of little value in the rest of the world.Thatay be a common worry although I do not see it as a reason for not voting for independence.

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    1. I think you overestimate the impact of Scotland on the UK economy. We're about 12% or so, hardly enough to crash the UK pension system, or the Pound.

      Remember that while the UK would lose Scotland's income, it would also lose Scotland's expenses. So the net effect is at most a few percentage points up or down, depending which flag you are waving.

      While I'm not a Yes voter, I am a qualified accountant, and I would say you can relax as far as your pension goes, no matter what happens. Independence will not ruin your retirement.

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    2. Would it be the case that the RuK would fund pensions for existing potential pensioners who are currently paying NI.
      Lets assume Scotland does get independence and a current forty year old worker who has paid their NI and then the NI is paid to Scotland how would that be calculated for a future retirement pension?

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    3. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27309215

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    4. Would it be the case that the RuK would fund pensions for existing potential pensioners who are currently paying NI.
      Lets assume Scotland does get independence and a current forty year old worker who has paid their NI and then the NI is paid to Scotland how would that be calculated for a future retirement pension?


      1 - No, state pensions are not 'funded' in that manner. They are defined benefit, not defined contribution.

      2 - Similarly, Scotland would pay for current pensioners out of the Tax & NI take from existing workers, as is the case for the UK at the moment.

      While its possible that Scotland could try and make a radical switch from defined benefit to defined contribution (like many companies have done in the last 20 years), it's likely that would be politically impossible to achieve.
      Any party that proposed such a deal would be voted out.

      Given Scotland is generally equivalent to the UK in terms of tax income and spending (sometimes a little higher, sometimes a little lower), it's likely that pensions would continue as normal.

      There are plenty economic concerns around independence, but pensions aren't particularly one of those areas. That's why no serious economists are making a big noise about it, but are more focused on real issues like currency and credit rating.

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    5. To elaborate further :

      If you have a private pension, you are on defined contribution. That is to say, you put your money into a 'pot' that gets invested over the years, then when you retire, that pot is used to give you your pension income.

      If you have a state pension. you are on defined benefit. The money you pay doesn't go into a pot. It is used to pay the current pensioners.
      Then, when you retire, you will be paid by the contributions of the people working at that time. There is no 'savings pot', and no financial link between your contributions and your final pension.

      So if Scotland becomes independent, then the most likely outcome is that the Scottish Govt will honour your contribution levels to the UK system. So when you retire, your pension will be paid out of the taxes of existing Scottish workers.
      Likewise, if you work in Scotland, you won't be funding rUK pensions.

      It's really not a big issue, countries (and in the case of the USA, states) deal with this kind of thing all the time.

      The only problem will come if Scotland does not have enough tax income to cover its pension liablities, which is unlikely. In fact the lousy life expectancy of Scots means that weirdly enough, it might be easier in Scotland than in rUK where people live longer and have healthier lives, on average. Go figure.

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    6. You say it is likely but you are not Unknown who made the original post on such matters!

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    7. Actually I am. I just didn't flick the dropdown to 'Anonymous' on my first reply.

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    8. As the pensioner who first brought up the topic of pensions, which is not altogether off topic James as the coming changes are quite a major concern, I would like to thank those who replied. Let's see if I have this right now. I paid National Insurance for 45 years to fund the State Pensions of others. It is now the "Others" turn to pay my State Pension but the money paid to me will be raised by the Scottish Government?
      That will be fine by me if that is the case. £1 Sterling has now within my lifetime fallen to the value of 9.5 old pennies. That's right. Today £1 buys what ninepence hae'penny did the year I was born. Poor old Brenda!! The arse really fell out of Britain on her watch.
      I suspect my company pension will be paid in English currency after independence and that their currency will continue to fall in value.We need some clarification on what currency Scotland will use after independence as I expect there are many people who share my concerns.

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    9. To pay state pensions a nation has to be reasonably economically successful. The Scottish nat sis have not yet given any confidence to the people that they can offer a strong economy or indeed a stable Scottish currency. The people will not swallow the story that everything will be alright on the night.

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    10. Let's see if I have this right now. I paid National Insurance for 45 years to fund the State Pensions of others. It is now the "Others" turn to pay my State Pension but the money paid to me will be raised by the Scottish Government?

      Yes, that's exactly how it works.

      Now it's possible that another arrangement could come about. Politicians can agree anything they want, after all. But rUK won't want to pay Scottish pensioners without getting any NI contributions from Scottish workers. And the Scottish Govt cannot leave pensioners penniless, especially when it's actually getting all those NI conts from it's own newly-independent workforce.

      So there is very little chance we'll see any other outcome. Scottish workers will pay for Scottish pensioners, and the same acros the border. Everyone goes home happy, no muss, no fuss.

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    11. If they stick to the present arrangement with the state pension then why change it for petty nationalism

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    12. As I said, I'm not a Yes voter. I just don't feel the need to tell people (obvious) lies about pensions.

      There are plenty genuine economic reasons to be wary of independence, no need to make stuff up to scare people.

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    13. Thanks and regards from one anonymous person to another anonymous person.
      "à chacun sa vérité"
      We each have our own perspective and another's perspective should be respected as much as our own.

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    14. You are welcome :)

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  12. James. New Opinium poll being touted just now by John Rentoul. Misleadingly so!

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    1. James,

      That is a poll of the UK. Smithson is rather worried.

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    2. The Herald have a poll in their paper tomorrow it must be another BMG poll and maybe a monthly poll from now on.

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    3. Marcia get a life and a man even if it is a Pole.

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    4. The troll calls Scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate speech, praises Theresa May and the Tories, and displays a perverted and poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

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  13. There are some right nasty gits commenting on here James. Why not use a different site for your blog, so that the disgusting sexist, racist, thicko trolling gits can be blocked. You would get a lot more readers and more people commenting intelligently.

    It's quite clear that the support for independence is growing. The yoons are freaking terrified, hence the obsession with the SNP. Once brexshit is triggered, independence will seem like the utopia that the yoons like to tell us we are wishing for. The UK is a busted flush, and good riddance to it!

    Oh and I don't bother checking for offensive replies to comments, so don't bother, thicko yoons.

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  14. Jimmy is sleeping. This is unusual.to wake him up, type " they let Kenya in the eurovision contest" three times. James has been adament that he loves his blogs platform and that he won't screen the comments or ban people or whatever. He occasionally deletes a few incredibly bad posts. James feels that intelligent people should be able to make up their minds on their own and that stupid comments should see the light of day and be an embarrassment for the pro union side.be will hold to this position until Scotland and is free and has its own act in the eurovision contest. Then, he will purge all negative comments like a dalek.

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