One of the many, many peculiar things about the impact of the EU referendum result is that it's short-circuited a subtle change in the narrative of Scottish party politics that we had all been coming to terms with gradually over a period of weeks. The Holyrood election two months ago may have been 2015 all over again as far as former Labour heartlands were concerned (with Dumbarton as a freakish exception), but in traditional areas of strength for the Tories and the Lib Dems it looked like the tide had begun to turn. If you'd asked me two weeks ago whether the SNP would hold all of their 56 seats in a snap UK general election, I'd have said "no chance" (45-50 would have looked like the most plausible range). But all of a sudden it looks perfectly possible again, partly because there's a whole new demographic that seems to have fallen in love with Nicola Sturgeon and her mission to keep Scotland in Europe. That hasn't made a dramatic difference to voting intentions, but the Panelbase poll today suggests that it's been enough to get the SNP back to exactly the level of support they enjoyed at the UK general election last year - and with a significantly bigger lead over the nearest challenger, which is now the Tory party rather than Labour.
Panelbase poll of Westminster voting intentions (Scotland-only) :
SNP 50%
Conservatives 19%
Labour 18%
Liberal Democrats 5%
Can anyone tell me how this poll tells the Sunday Post that Mundell's seat is safe while Murray's is not?
ReplyDeleteBecause the Tory vote is up 4% on 2015 and the Labour vote is down 6%.
DeleteBut this is across the board......To extrapolate to individual seats is surely wild speculation. Especially given Brexit result.
ReplyDeleteCould a snap general election also act as an independence referendum?
ReplyDeleteI think that the Scottish Government has an expected trajectory, which may involve securing EU support for an Independent Scotland in Europe and then calling an independence referendum; perhaps with that guarantee or intimated guarantee as part of the argument.
Delete"which may involve securing EU ... perhaps with that... or intimated guarantee as part of the argument."
DeleteI think that's right; a tacit agreement that come independence Scotland's accession will rubber stamped, or Scotland will be considered the continuing state, circumventing pitfalls of accession process.
Being the continuing state would have all kinds of advantages such as appeasing the Spanish objections. That looks like the most likely scenario and there have been hints from EU officials that they're open to it.
DeleteThat is fairly good. I haven't looked at the actual polling, but presumably the Greens have some support as well. I think we need an independence vote quickly, to beat BREXIT to the punch.
ReplyDeleteIn an INDYREF2, I would still think there will be a degree of crossover for independence from Labour---not so much from the Tories. Sturgeon doesn't gamble, but it may be time to roll the dice.
Have I told you that I am a wanker?
ReplyDeleteClearly going by the impersonator above this blog is being contaminated by sexual predators and sad lonely meat bashers.
ReplyDeleteYour presence confirms that, 23.
DeleteSorry I meant arsehole
ReplyDeleteSorry, I meant that I am an arsehole.
ReplyDeleteI am only posting here because I have no friends and nobody likes me.
ReplyDeleteIf only the UK Gov would give all UK voters a vote on joke independence we taxpayers would get a tax bonus.
DeleteThey did on 23 June. The joke was on the public and Brexit is the punchline. You may leave now, dearie, but don't forget to come back after Chilcot is published.
DeleteAnd if I get a tax bonus I could pay somebody to like me.
ReplyDeleteSeems you Nat sis have nothing to offer but tears. Out of the EU and Jocks wanting to remain in the UK. There must be an alternative to give the Jock spongers a way out. Will Merkel and the Bundesbank bail you out. NAH you are locked into dependancy which ever way you go. The English are always around tae help. Great people the English and mugs.
ReplyDeleteChange the record, dearie. "Too wee, too poor, too stupid and too racist" is tedious and doesn't cut it anymore.
DeletePolling is consistent with a chunk of middle-class Labour voters moving to the SNP/Yes since Brexit, which would chime with the declarations of figures like McLeish, Chisholm etc. This would indeed put Murray's seat under threat. If sufficient heat is put on Labour, perhaps Dugdale will once again start making noises sympathetic to independence.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, heartening to see Corbyn's resilience down south. I am looking forward to seeing he and Salmond acting in concert when Chilcot comes out.
Heartening to see Corbyn resist the Blairites and wonderful prospect in watching Murray's failed gambit in giving up his position as Shadow Scot Sec.
DeleteI expect Chilcot to be a full anti climax.
I wonder about Mundell's seat being safe as the Sunday Post seems to assume. He won by margin of 798 votes and spent more than all his rivals combined with 76.1% turnout.
Given Brexit and the knowledge that this seat is that close, I would expect a good challenge to be brought there in a snap General Election.
...and would the Greens put up a candidate again in Mundell's constituency?
DeleteI hate you jocks and your jockanese ways. Spongers the lot of you.
ReplyDeleteThat's a pretty good impersonation. Need to work on the spelling and incoherence, though.
DeleteBut you live in Glasgow tough guy or so you claim. Why would you live in a country with people you hate? You really are a Sandwich short of a picnic. Why don't you infest the Tory sites or are you really just a Bitter Tory in disguise?
DeleteHey Paul, have you considered getting out of the tweeting with Nat si friends and various impersonators and actually saying something sensible for Scotland?
DeleteGWC2... Shut yer pus ya far-right, UKIP fud.
Delete