In perhaps the most bizarre statement of his political career to date (and that's quite an effort), Boris Johnson is saying that he "does not detect any real appetite" for a second independence referendum in Scotland any time soon. As he's been south of the border since the Brexit result was announced, God alone knows how he has actually gone about making these efforts at appetite-detection, but let's call a spade a spade - he's either being unbelievably obtuse here, or he's insulting the intelligence of the English audience his remarks were presumably aimed towards.
Two or three weeks ago, a polling firm made a very systematic and scientific effort to determine whether there was an appetite for a second referendum, and it did so by actually contacting a representative sample of the Scottish population by telephone. This is what it found -
Agree there should be a second independence referendum within two years in event of UK voting Leave with Scotland voting Remain? (Ipsos-Mori, telephone, Scotland only, 6th-12th June 2016)
Agree 47%
Disagree 45%
That was BEFORE the Daily Record and umpteen unionist politicians and commentators came out in favour of a second referendum in the wake of Thursday's bombshell result. Does Boris seriously believe that these latest events have made the public's support for Indyref 2 drain away? Well, no, I suspect he probably doesn't.
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On a similar theme, you might be interested in Alasdair Soussi's new article at the Al Jazeera website about the Scottish and Northern Irish reaction to Brexit, and which features quotes from myself, Gerry Hassan and Simon Pia. You can read it HERE.
It would appear that the natsi delusion continues. You guys really think a second referendum will happen and that Yes will win? - Not a chance in hell. Nicola Stalin has taken a bold approach by trying to link a second referendum to Scotland's membership in the EU. Even Jim Sillars said that's not right. A lot of SNP supporters and Yes voters from 2014 actually backed leave according to the Survation poll.
ReplyDeleteAnyhow, another reason why it wont happen is because the UK is not gonna leave the EU. A lot of leave voters are regretting already and getting the jitters. Even Boris Johnson made it clear tonight that he is still looking to remain in the single market (eg: Norway style) and that means that the UK will get free trade.
Once Boris Johnson keeps the UK in the EEA area, retaining the single market access for the UK, the case for a second independence referendum will be on tatters. There will be no Brexit because no one in the Conservative party has the balls to go to Brussels and trigger article 50.
Even if there was a messy Brexit, there is no guarantee that there will be a referendum, the Conservatives will not allow one. As simple as that.
Last and most importantly, even if there was a referendum and independence may be slightly ahead in the polls now but once the dust sets in and the public realise the large deficit Scotland would have, the cuts and tax rises that independence would entail, the economic reality would kick in and this time it will be a 40-60 to No.
Not only you need to win a second referendum, you need to win it before 2020. Loosing a second referendum will kick nationalism stone dead as it happened in Quebec. Plus under their new pledge to get the UK back into the EU, we will see a Libdem resurgence and thus votes in Scotland will split even more. Also, under the lead of Ruth Davidson the Conservatives will go from strength to strength in Scotland.
The above means that the next 4 years will be the last in which there will be a nat si/independence majority in Holyrood, after 2020 we will have a pro-unionist coalition. In fact, with Boris Johnson one nation approach, he will be a very popular PM in Scotland.
It's great to be British now that we've taken control.
Yes, but you said the Husband of a Jo Cox was a fascist.
DeleteSo who gives a flying fuck what a far right extremist like you has to say?
"Even Jim Sillars said that's not right."
DeleteWell, that's a bit of a worry, isn't it? After all, this is the man who was a hard-line unionist in 1970, a devolutionist in 1977, a fundamentalist nationalist in 1982, a proponent of "independence in Europe" in 1988, an opponent of devolution in 1997, and now a Brexiteer in 2016. Anyone with a career marked by such logical consistency must be worth listening to.
This is why you guys will never win.
DeleteSo FRCC, I said the husband of Jo Cox was a facist? - Erm, when? - You are probably confusing me with my very honourable friend GWC.
As to James, cheer for the insight on Sillars, however the fact that I gave you a bunch of reasons why independence and indyref2 wont happen and you could only debunk that one, means that I am right.
Rule Britannia.
Sillars was only just campaigning for RISE you colossally ignorant dumbass.
DeleteHow clever changing from Glasgow working ass to Edinburgh working ass. I see you are still as gutless. What a moron you are.
DeleteFantastic prose. I'm assuming with such insight you hold a senior position in global politics or maybe you're even a government minister?
DeleteYour use of 'natsi' to highlight the striking similarities between the SNP & Nazism is deeply impressive. Unionists take note: We need more attention drawn to this uncanny Nazi/SNP resemblance. the above is a great example of how to do it properly.
Finally, and the piece de resistance, was your views on Boris Johnson's incredible potential north of the border. Its only a matter of time before Scotland sees the BJ light, and turns away from the SNP, ready to stride into the world, and regain Brittania's great empire which was stolen by immigrants when we weren't looking.
Jeez - you don't half love to eat yellow snow, sonny.
DeleteDon't really think I have read a more half-witted bunch of paragraphs on here - apart from those by your other half, the equally half-witted Glasgow Water Closet, who has the other half of your - very tiny - wit.
Badly educated, moronic wee Yoonie Simpletons like you might believe that verbal skitter you have just spouted........but ordinary folk will simply treat it with the derision which such utter tripe deserves.
That Bullingdon Buffoon Boris cannot even"take control" of his hairbrush, let alone anything else.
Those who look to him for leadership, are at about the same intellectual level as a garden slug - and that is being unkind to slugs.
You, most certainly, fit that description.
Record Survation poll 54% yes. Represents a 500,000 switch from no to yes!
ReplyDeleteBe warned - it's hard hitting stuff that covers every possible negotiable scenario.
ReplyDeletehttps://youtu.be/7Fjv5JJbjvw
David K Smith @professor_dave · 5 hours ago
ReplyDeleteWatching the strident anti-Scots, anti-EU Little Englander voices on #bbcqt - I'm now certain the Scots will leave us
I've got to hand it to you James. Your blog doesn't half attract the zoomers, especially the more demented ones. Even the SNPs own page doesn't get this quality of fruitcake.
ReplyDeleteDon't you have foreigners to spit hate at?
DeleteWhen you have the likes of GWC and your good self,who needs foreigners? Most of the Foreigners I know are good, decent people trying to make a living. They are perfect shining examples compared to some of the bottom-feeders and pond life that infest this blog
DeleteGreat to see the ultranationalist unionists trying to rationalise that their vote for Brexit will destroy their country and Scotland will remain in the EU. Thanks guys, keep on digging
ReplyDeleteJames Kelly (in Aljazeera): "The bigger danger is that the momentum is going to drift away ... So, it may not feel like the perfect time, but this may be the moment to go forward."
ReplyDeleteNe'er a truer word . . .
Get informal contingent undertaking from EU in event of indy - following example might offer a staring point
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/independence-juncker-sympathetic-to-scots-eu-bid-1-3482266
Then put it to the People post haste. Not all "T"s need be crossed nor "i"s dotted.
Nicola sturgeon is not a gambler like Alex Salmond, and maybe the only bit of certainty in our lives right now is that NS will not lose an Indy2 referendum because she won't call for one till it looks pretty watertight. that's gonna need a lot of work on the currency, the economy etc, and not least a lot of time with lawyers exploring other options before it even goes to westminster for "permission". nicola has played a blinder as a leader but make no mistake she's no daft, so don't hold your breath for indy yet. It's coming though. Besides, we want to attract people on board who have thought it through and will be an asset to an independent Scotland, not folk who voted Yes and regretted it the next day like so many of the Leave camp.
ReplyDeleteAh, truthiness!
DeleteWe want independence, period. The Tory govt through their empty suit, the Secretary of State for Scotland, have made it plain they will not block indyref2. "Permission" is not an issue. The two main parties are for now, effectively leaderless. Enough Scots are now indignant enough that in three consecutive polls, there has been a majority for independence.
And uh, the brexitiers WON. Do tell how YOU would guarantee this slowly constructed, comprehensive, thoughtful majority, and when might it come to be? You've no idea do you . It's nonsense isn't it?
Naught but pablum.