Perish the thought that anyone could ever call YouGov "secretive". Until today, we had assumed that their last four EU referendum polls showed Leave in the lead, but now we learn that they've been quietly polling more recently without releasing the figures - and in all of the last four polls, Remain have been ahead, by anything between two and five points. That's too consistent a change to be easily explained away by sampling variation, so it seems there has been a genuine and potentially significant swing to Remain among the YouGov polling panel as campaigning has got underway in earnest.
Strangely, though, this can't be taken as an indication that online polling from other firms will necessarily show the same trend. The fieldwork for the first two of the four newly-released polls either preceded or overlapped with the fieldwork for the most recent ICM online poll, which not only failed to show a swing to Remain, but was actually the joint second-best poll for Leave that ICM have produced. Perhaps that poll will turn out to be a red herring, but it's at least possible that YouGov and ICM are parting company on the trend in the same way that Ipsos-Mori and ComRes have done recently on the telephone side of the divide.
As you'd expect, the release of four new polls in one go has had a telling impact on the Poll of Polls, with Remain nudging back into the lead on the online average...
SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
50/50 ONLINE/TELEPHONE AVERAGE :
Remain 45.8% (-0.1)
Leave 38.6% (-0.9)
ONLINE AVERAGE :
Remain 40.7% (-0.3)
Leave 39.8% (-1.9)
TELEPHONE AVERAGE :
Remain 50.8% (n/c)
Leave 37.3% (n/c)
(The Poll of Polls takes account of all polls that were conducted at least partly within the last month. The online average is based on thirteen polls - six from YouGov, four from ICM, one from ORB, one from BMG and one from TNS. The telephone average is based on four polls - two from ComRes, one from Ipsos-Mori and one from Survation.)
I have been considering for a while the effect the volume of polling has on results. This is very bizarre behavour. I would consider calling it one big poll and lower the margin of error.
ReplyDeleteIt does seem a bit odd to release 4 all at once. I get the feeling a lot of people are a bit bored hearing about this referendum. Maybe nearer the time people will take a bit more interest.
ReplyDeleteAre there any impartial polls asking if Scotland should remain in or leave the EU?
ReplyDeleteYes. They all show massive Remain leads.
DeleteThe results of EU referendum polls are just plain weird. At least during the independence referendum there was something of a pattern. OK, there were some differences (Such as telephone polls showing a much lower Yes vote, at least until the tail end of the campaign), but most pollsters picked up on similar trends, especially when the competition really started hotting up. With the EU referendum, the results seem to be all over the place.
ReplyDeleteI think it's just not an issue that is stirring the blood, most people are pretty ambivalent on the whole thing.
DeleteEven among the strongly opinionated and the politically engaged, you're seeing blogs and commentaries from people who normally have an opinion on absolutely everything coming down on the side of 'not sure how they feel about it'.
And a lot of people on the Remain side (like myself) have their own issue with the EU. I'm 99% sure we're better off inside Europe than out, but I'd have to be a blind man not to see the glaring problems inside the current EU governing body.
You don't get many whole-hearted Europhiles in the UK. Rather like with our Referendum, the people who feel strongly about it tend to be the single-issue types, so once again it's the Nationalist* side which seems to have the most passion in this debate.
* - British rather than Scottish in this case, of course.
I think you might be right on that. Even among the politically engaged membership of my own party (Labour), the common sentiment is "Meh". I'll be voting to remain, but I find it difficult to summon any enthusiasm for the whole thing.
Delete"I'd have to be a blind man not to see the glaring problems inside the current EU governing body."
DeleteIf you know there are problems why on Earth are you giving the status quo your seal of approval? Because if you vote Remain that is exactly what you're doing.
Vote to remain nothing will change.
Vote leave will set the scene for us to have a reasonable chance of meaningful reform and re-establishing a functional partnership with Europe.
The only reason we had Smith was because Yes got so close. If we'd all voted No it would have been business as usual.
The Ulster Unionist Party are now supporting staying in. Another case of subsidy junkies like the Jock Nat sis and ROI. Wales will be next. No pride at all in Britain the Union that took them from Feudalism and the Clans into prosperity. Now they crawl to Herman and the Frogs. No pride at all.
ReplyDeleteAnother 2nd class opinion from a 2nd class commentator
DeleteIs that it Anon reduced to the nonentity you are.
DeleteDid yoon have a nice day cleaning fir Queenie yesterday?
DeleteLOL - you think we are clear of Feudalism do you ..... have a look at Land Ownership and think again!
DeleteWho is subsidising the ROI? If it spends more than it takes from taxes, it has to borrow the money. Its deficit is being closed rapidly and will be closed entirely by 2018. If you're referring to the fact that it currently gets more from the EU than it puts into the EU, the net amount is pretty trivial compared to the overall size of the Irish economy and Ireland is going to become a net contributor to the EU's budget from 2021 onwards, so eventually every cent it's received from the EU will be paid back.
DeleteJames, will you please just stop it! Posing as an agent provocateur in the guise of GWC2 is just becoming too blatant. Nobody can be that idiotic! Please stop??
ReplyDeleteIt seems to come over as being little more than a spat between Bullingdon Boys.Is their greed best served by being in or out of the EU?
ReplyDeleteMakes you wish both sides could lose.
DeleteIf they got exactly 50% each they would. Would be funny as fuck if that happened.
DeleteIs Goebbels Wittering Crass getting his/her Nat sis in a fankle again?
ReplyDeleteMust be guy confusing for this entity wot with even the LOL coming out to remain in "Fenian" Europe whilst she or he was trolling the floors of Lizzie (the ungrateful Orange Paddy b'stards).
Help ma Boab, then the spectre of the welshing Taffs chibbing him/her with a leek.
It's enough to drive an uber Unionist troll to swearing off the Cafe Lattes, by jings.
Roll on Holyrood and GWC posting under Sons of Odin (& its sorority) as he finally comes out of his (?) Wagnerian coffin brandishing a Gothic spelling keyboard.
The omnishambles has invoked Godwin's law to a greater extent than usual on the comments on the previous post...
DeleteOch well David I have inspired you to say some more useless drivel you former socialist that has turned tae ra dark Nat si side.
DeleteYoon truly are an omnishambles; as confused as yoon are hostile.
DeleteRe Glasgow Working C2
ReplyDeleteTalking of no pride and Herman; ironic that the UK Head of State is from a German family. Queen Lizzie and co feel perfectly ok with the UK being in a cosy relationship with Hermany (pun intended). That's what familys are for, after all.
Watching Boris on the Marr show yesterday made me think that this whole 'Boris backs Brexit' thing is actually a brilliant piece of sabotage by the government - with Boris as a sort of Trojan horse. He was awful.
ReplyDeleteUnless there is some kind of big game changer in the next few months, I think we will vote for staying in.
Aldo