A new batch of Ashcroft constituency polls is out this afternoon, with the most eye-catching result being that Jim Murphy is on course to lose East Renfrewshire. Here are the full results, with the percentage changes measured from the 2010 election result, rather than from the most recent Ashcroft poll in each seat. (He hasn't previously polled three of the eight seats in any case.)
East Renfrewshire :
SNP 40% (+31)
Labour 31% (-20)
Conservatives 25% (-5)
Liberal Democrats 3% (-6)
(This would be an SNP gain from Labour. Jim Murphy of Labour would lose his seat.)
East Dunbartonshire :
SNP 40% (+29)
Liberal Democrats 29% (-10)
Labour 16% (-18)
Conservatives 12% (-4)
(This would be an SNP gain from the Liberal Democrats . Jo Swinson of the Liberal Democrats would lose her seat.)
Ross, Skye & Lochaber :
SNP 48% (+35)
Liberal Democrats 33% (-20)
Conservatives 7% (-5)
Labour 6% (-9)
(This would be an SNP gain from the Liberal Democrats. Charles Kennedy of the Liberal Democrats would lose his seat.)
Paisley & Renfrewshire South :
SNP 50% (+32)
Labour 39% (-21)
Conservatives 6% (-4)
Liberal Democrats 1% (-9)
(This would be an SNP gain from Labour. Douglas Alexander of Labour would lose his seat.)
Glasgow South-West :
SNP 55% (+39)
Labour 34% (-28)
Conservatives 6% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 2% (-7)
(This would be an SNP gain from Labour. Ian Davidson of Labour would lose his seat. Hosanna, heysanna, sanna-sanna-ho, sanna-hey, sanna, hosanna.)
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale :
SNP 36% (+25)
Conservatives 34% (-4)
Labour 20% (-9)
Liberal Democrats 4% (-16)
(This would be an SNP gain from the Conservatives. David Mundell of the Conservatives would lose his seat.)
North-East Fife :
SNP 43% (+29)
Liberal Democrats 30% (-14)
Conservatives 16% (-6)
Labour 9% (-8)
(This would be an SNP gain from the Liberal Democrats. Menzies Campbell is the retiring Liberal Democrat MP.)
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk :
Conservatives 30% (-4)
SNP 29% (+20)
Liberal Democrats 28% (-17)
Labour 9% (-1)
(This would be a Conservative gain from the Liberal Democrats. Michael Moore of the Liberal Democrats would lose his seat.)
Bear in mind that Ashcroft uses two separate voting intention questions, and headlines only the results on the second, in an attempt to take account of local factors and the effect of tactical voting. So there's absolutely no comfort here at all for Jim Murphy, Douglas Alexander or Charles Kennedy - in all three cases, the SNP were even further ahead on the first question. The only 'big name' that enjoys any significant personal vote (or possibly a tactical voting boost) is Kennedy, but that doesn't look like being sufficient - it merely reduces his arrears from 21 points to 15. Remember that he was only 5 points adrift on the second question in the previous Ashcroft poll, so either the election has been running away from him since then, or he was being flattered by margin of error effects in the first poll.
In all five constituencies that have been polled for a second time, the SNP's position has improved further, with the result flipping in two seats (East Renfrewshire and Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale). Of all the seats that Ashcroft has now covered at least once, there are only two in which the SNP are not ahead on the most up-to-date figures - Glasgow North-East and Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk. However, based on the additional movement we're seeing today, it's perfectly conceivable that a new Ashcroft poll in Glasgow North-East would put the SNP slightly ahead.
Ashcroft himself has claimed some "surprise" at the fact that the Tories are ahead in Michael Moore's seat, albeit with a tiny advantage over the SNP and Lib Dems that is well within the margin of error. I'm not sure if surprise is really warranted - we always knew Berwickshire was the one constituency where the collapsing Lib Dem vote might work in the Tories' favour more than the SNP's, although admittedly the SNP vote there is up by significantly less than in the other seven constituencies that have been polled. On the other hand, the SNP would be ahead even in Berwickshire if Ashcroft hadn't used the discredited 2010 weighting procedure - it's led to people who recall voting SNP in the seat in 2010 being weighted down from 112 to 63. And even simply dispensing with the questionable 'spiral of silence' adjustment would be sufficient to put the SNP level with the Tories. (Of course both of these factors apply in all of the constituencies, meaning it's quite possible that the SNP are further ahead in the other seven seats than is being reported.)
I don't think any of us are going to collapse with shock at the discovery that the result of the Lib Dems' internal poll in East Dunbartonshire was a load of nonsense, although to be fair it's slightly unexpected to see that they're in such a clear second place in the constituency. So their hopes of portraying the contest as a straight SNP v Lib Dem fight haven't been thwarted, but that might actually play into the SNP's hands - it would probably be easier to persuade Lib Dem voters to move tactically to Labour than it would be to persuade Labour voters to move tactically to the Lib Dems. (And of course a large number of Labour voters may now be seriously considering switching to the SNP to stop the Lib Dems.) An even bigger problem applies in Berwickshire and Dumfriesshire - the appearance of a Tory v SNP choice is the nightmare scenario for any "unionist alliance", because the Tories are the hardest party of all to persuade people to lend their vote to on a tactical basis.
When the first batch of Ashcroft polls was released, the big frustration was that the fieldwork for some of them was already well out of date. There is no similar worry on this occasion - all of the new polls have been conducted within the last eight days. The additional swing to the SNP can therefore be seen as directly corroborating the big increase in the SNP lead reported in the most recent full-scale Scottish polls from both YouGov and TNS.
As before, there's a clear pattern of the Tory vote being down across the board. It's easy to jump to the conclusion that this is simply because of Tory voters switching tactically to Labour or the Lib Dems, but there must be more to it than that, because it's happening even in the two seats where the Tories are clearly in contention (including the one where they hold the outright lead). If I was going to hazard a guess, I'd say that a Shy Tory Factor may be at play in telephone polls. Most full-scale polls conducted online don't have the Tories significantly down on 2010.
With remarkably fortuitous timing, I'm just in from placing two £20 bets on the SNP to win in East Renfrewshire and in Paisley and Renfrewshire South this very morning. 9/4 and 5/4 odds. Might have another punt on Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale tomorrow...
ReplyDeleteWowee,zowie.
ReplyDeleteGreat, just great.
Sam McComb
Goodbye, Jimmy, goodbye.
ReplyDeleteThe 34.5% swing in Glasgow SW is also a thing of wonder!
ReplyDeleteWow. Just wow. I have nothing to say. I know it is premature to celebrate, but I am so happy I am going to get drunk anyway.
ReplyDeleteAstonished! All these 'wee things' becoming insignificant :-D
ReplyDelete50% in wee Dougie son of the manses seat...get it up you smug chops!
ReplyDeleteI live in D,C & T - Gaun yersel, Emma, consign Mundell to the scrap heap of history!
ReplyDelete'Mon the Pandas! :-D
DeleteROFL
I was out leafleting in DC&T this morning. So heartening to know that a substantial percentage of the people in these houses are intending to vote SNP.
DeleteIf that poll tells us anything else, it's that we need to get Emma's personal profile a bit higher. She's falling back on the local candidate part of the question. I believe work is in hand on that.
I know that Ashcroft polled two separate SNP activists in Tweeddale West in that poll. One of them a local councillor. I suppose weighting irons out these coincidences.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletePosters should remember that Lord Ashcroft, unlike other pollsters, manually adjusts the results received from his polling company to allocate a portion of the undecided vote back to the parties they supported in 2010.
ReplyDeleteThis adjustment penalizes the SNP as their 2010 vote in all these constituencies was measurably lower.
In the Berwickshire seat where he has adjusted the vote, he has changed a 2% SNP lead over the Conservatives into 1% lead for the Conservatives.
Unadjusted Polling Data
SNP 33
Con 31
LD 21
Lab 9
UKIP 4
Grn 1
Ashcroft Adjusted Projection
Con 32 (+1)
SNP 31 (-2)
LD 22 (-1)
Lab 9 nc
UKIP 4 nc
Grn 1 nc
Ashcroft made this adjustment in all the results.
'Spiral of silence', as they call it, is actually not that uncommon. As you imply, however, how applicable is it in Scotland in 2015 - a seemingly 'out of sample' (as Nate Silver would say) landscape?
DeleteLabour voters of Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk, you know what you have to do.
ReplyDeleteDo these polls not show that tactical voting willnot work? The SNP aren't just getting support from ex-Labour supported they are taking them from Libdems and Tories. Its as likely that tactical voting will work as it is that more support will move to SNP in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteThe areas were its close enough to count are 3 way splits which will again limit any effect.
I need an Ashcroft poll in Edinburgh East to calm my nerves!
ReplyDeleteCould we not just forget the election and go with the polls?
ReplyDeleteI haven't given up on these pretty dismal polls, hoping for a better result.
Delete.
A 3% further swing to the SNP should do it nicely.
As I thought would happen, the Labour Party made a monumental cock-up when they decided to build this general election campaign in Scotland around Jim Murphy.
ReplyDeleteFor a kick off, he had a negative personal rating, so what were Labour even thinking about?
His personal rating began to drop, but Labour strategists continued to put Jim Murphy at the centre of their strategy.
As his personal ratings have fallen, so has support for Labour while Nicolas personal ratings have been sky high.
What can Labour do now?
Well if they ask for my advice it would be to get Jim Murphy well out of the way, and put someone who is likeable and who voters in Scotland like (including SNP voters)
Ladies and gentle men I give you Margaret Curran.!!!
Then again, I want to see Labour decimated in Scotland...haha.
I want to see them a lot worse than decimated. (Technically, reduced by 10%, so they'd keep 90% of their seats on that basis.)
DeleteIndeed Rolfe, we want to see the lot of them gone, and never to see their like again.
DeleteHosanna In Excelsis Deo!
ReplyDeleteHmm, have been telling Tories in Berwickshire that if they really hate the SNP to vote tactically for Moore, hope they don't see this poll! Would be a shame to ditch fluffy as Scotland's only Tory MP just to replace him with John Lamont. On the other hand, a genuine 3-horse race, exciting.
ReplyDeletePatrick Roden you are a card but I like you and I like your style. I am sure the wee ginger dug also likes your style.
ReplyDeletePolls are very good, but we still have almost 3 weeks still to go. Don't underestimate Labour's methods in Scotland when they are fighting to retain their chances of ermine. The MSM will be trying their best to aid SLAB as well.
ReplyDeletePretty brutal poll there.
ReplyDeleteThis is the first election in a long time where it'll be worth staying up to watch the individual seats coming in. Normally you can just go to bed pretty early knowing who has won, but there are so many interesting seats to watch this time. Galloway, Kennedy, Alexander(s), Farage, Clegg, Murphy etc.
No matter what the result, I think it'll be quite a night.
Wow.
ReplyDeleteIf you take out the 2010 weighting, SNP look comfortably ahead in my - Moore's - seat.
ReplyDeleteMore in line with combined 2011 constituency results.
What happens if you do the same for DC&T?
DeleteHad a look. Would only make things marginally better. I don't think the tactical vote was so high there. It is naturally more unionist.
DeleteAlso, it's a bit of a guesstimate so all we can say is 2010 weighting does hurt the SNP and removing it might indicate values closer to reality.
The numbers do say SNP are in with a shout in DC&T. If they took it, it really would be remarkable.
Our branch convener was just saying he thought Calum's constituency (BR&S) was more unionist than ours (DC&T). Calum is such a good candidate (he's in our SNP branch) I always thought he'd take the seat, but at the moment we seem to be slightly ahead.
DeleteWell, I'm off to leaflet the A702 down to the Lanarkshire county boundary. Fingers crossed.
Worth pointing out that the postal votes go out soon.....mmmmmmm!
ReplyDeleteNo suggestion of monkey business, just merely saying that, if these polls are accurate, it could well be too late for the red tories to influence the postal voters in a way they usually do.
John McTernan (born in 1959, London) is a British Labour Party political adviser, political strategist and commentator
ReplyDeleteWALOFS
Has anybody worked out what the notional National shares would be? Higher or lower than the 52% uguv?
ReplyDeleteClever people remember that the 2010 election saw even larger anti-Tory tactical voting than normal. And sympathy votes for the Scottish PM being abused by the Britnat media. Basing your poll weightings on those numbers is insane.
In the words of Victor Meldrew-I don't believe it!
ReplyDeleteTell me on 8th
Remember about six months ago when we were all having an argument about the virtues of a Yes Alliance? Changed times!
ReplyDeleteBy the by, there's odds of SNP winning all 59 seats at 20/1 - unlikely, but thems pretty good odds imho
Who on Earth is going to be Secretary of State for Scotland? Willie Bain? I'm not sure how that would work!
ReplyDeleteWould love to see a poll for Bain's seat now. If Murphy's seat has swung 9% in a couple of months a similar swing would also put Bain in trouble
DeleteHe already was in trouble - it was only the 2010 weighting distortion that was keeping him ahead.
DeleteSo if Bains seat is probably going to fall to the SNP are there any seats that Labour will win?
DeleteJack McConnell? Lord Gordie Broon? Foulkes? Could happen. Murphy could even do it if he lost his seat and they gave him an ermine compensation prize.
DeleteJust heard an odd rumour that a frantically desperate Labour, little Ed and Murphy will somehow appoint/force Brown into some diddy busywork position if they are in government.
ReplyDeleteThey DO realise he won't be an MP, don't they??
Still, it's precisely the kind of utterly desperate crap they might try to pull after the first Indyref and THE VOW. Certainly won't work a second time though. They should look at the Ashcroft polling for Brown's seat as that is precisely where the BIGGEST swing occurred to the SNP. For obvious reasons. Well, obvious to us anyway. ;-)
Piemonteis - I think they can parachute in someone from the lords - Michael Forsyth anyone?
ReplyDeleteThere is a big lump ofTories there in ER. Tactical voting for Jim Murphy by them looks probable unless somebody closer to the action can tell me differently.
ReplyDeleteThe thing is though that the Tories are almost tied with Labour in East Renfrewshire. Their voters might try to go all out to take the seat for themselves.
DeleteInstead of accepting and embracing change. The unionists are at war with the majority of Scots. Make no bones about this. Scotland is politically at war with the establishment. They will fight Scotland until the last unionist mp has been removed.
ReplyDeleteI view the East Renfrewshire and Paisley polls in particular as to good to be true, in regards to May. I just cannot see Alexander and Murphy getting beat, not because I want them to win, or because they are talented, principled. My instincts are telling me not to get triumphant, I am already uncomfortable reading some posts on Wings.
ReplyDeleteGiven that Ashcroft's methodology works against the SNP, I see absolutely no reason to doubt the finding that Murphy and Alexander are behind - if anything, they may be even further behind than is being reported. That's not to say they'll necessarily lose, but they're going to need a substantial swing back to Labour over the coming weeks.
DeleteYes Mutley. I agree nervous about those seats. Let's see what the polls are saying a couple of days out from the election.
ReplyDeleteForgive my indecency but there's nothing else for it...
ReplyDeleteMandela
Whilst it pays not to be too over-excited, it is hard to see anything over than more support drifting to the SNP in the lead up to 7 May. Why would there be a reversal. It seems more likely that soft Unionist voters will slide our way and that those undecided will go with the national mood.
ReplyDeleteOn another tack there is a big part of me that would actually like Labour to do the unthinkable, and actually refuse to work with the SNP on any basis, ceding the government to the Tories to protect the austerity agenda from those SNP barbarian lefties rushing down from Hadrian's wall. Can you imagine it? How could Labour ever recover in Scotland from putting the Tories in for another term? Forget the invented history of 1979, this would be something that Labour could never escape.
I wonder if Nicola would actually secretly prefer it? But what a great position to be in. Whatever transpires the SNP simply cannot lose as far as I can see. Labour are doomed in Scotland whatever they do over the next month.
I wonder if Nicola would actually secretly prefer it?
DeleteOh don't you bloody start.
The only way the SNP can lose is by going into formal coalition and being tarred with the collective responsibility brush. But they are alive to that and ruled it out long ago. Provided they stick to their principles and discipline and vote how the current six do then they will be able to hold their heads up and truthfully say they fought Scotland's corner.
DeleteIf I was going to hazard a guess, I'd say that a Shy Tory Factor may be at play in telephone polls.
ReplyDeleteTories in DC&T ain't shy. Take it from me.
I wonder what a full scale Scottish poll from Ashcroft would show. The constituency polls seem to be showing a bigger swing than national polling. I do wonder if there are a few shy Labour and Tory voters. But the leads are big enough that it shouldn't make a difference.
ReplyDeleteI would love to see every Red Tory rat scuttering off the sinking ship into a sea of fire but it has to be said that Murphy, Davidson, Alexander and Curran are the worst of the worst: true blue Red Tories - really the worst of the worst (not including the Brown stuff or his Darling since they knew they were screwed and deserted the rats).
ReplyDeleteEven living and campaigning in Mundell's constituency, I'd take that. I'd grit my teeth and put up with Mundell if only Murphy lost his seat.
DeleteOf course, I'd rather boot both of them out.
I want to see Jackie Bird in front of a big screen of Scotland with SNP coloured yellow from Shetland right across the country to Dumfries and Galloway.
DeleteI have a dream!
I just want to see her face when the last SNP Gain is announced.
I wonder if she will smile?
Aye lads - me too
DeletePoll of polls chart for Scottish Electorate:
ReplyDeletehttp://corecursion.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/latest-scottish-poll-of-polls-for-uk_17.html
UKIP to win Orkney and Shetland?
DeleteAnother polling model goes down in smoke.
Please tell me that model isn't based on multiplying the 2010 UKIP vote by 4.7 in every constituency. That would be very silly.
DeleteYou're exactly right, James. I prefer to think of it as overly simplified. :) I don't really think Orkney and Shetland is going UKIP, though they did vote 6.8% UKIP in 2010 when the Scottish national vote for UKIP was 0.7%.
DeleteDo you have an idea for a better model that can cope with the increase of turnout that 2015 will have?
When Charlie Kennedy started to smear his SNP opponent then you just have to believe that he is losing it big. I don't think it is the kind of behaviour that is tolerated all that much in certain parts. Jardine in Gordon is pretty much just greeting daily like a seagull for tactical votes now. I have reinforced the ceiling just in case Murphy does get dumped. I will hit the roof if that happens.
ReplyDeleteI'm scared my involuntary WHOOP! of joy will wake my No voting wife and disturb the neighbours through the party wall even with the living room door shut.
DeleteIf Alexander goes, Mundell, Curran, Davidson my name may very well be mud on the 8th ;-)
Why is it assumed that most Labour tactical votes will go to Lib-Dems against SNP?
ReplyDeleteeg in Gordon or in East Dunbartonshire
Why would Labour trust them not to side with the Tories again?
Surely it would make more sense for their supporters to tactically vote SNP to help Miliband get elected.
Well indeed, but the problem there is that you're thinking about what would make sense. We're talking SLab here. These are the same numbskulls who would rather vote Tory and risk losing the election than vote SNP and actually have a chance of winning. I think the intelligent Labourites have all left and gone to the Greens and the SNP.
DeleteAnd the SSP Jamie.
DeleteI'm trying my very best not to count my chickens..
ReplyDeleteJames - your coverage of the polls is as always excellent and enlightening -
ReplyDeleteI'm swithering between Tory and SNP, but as I live in Edinburgh North and Leith voting SNP makes much more sense to get rid of Leperowicz.
ReplyDeleteOn a uniform swing EN+L looks a ready gain for SNP, possibly with quite a substantial majority. Tories haven't a hope, as is the case in most of Scotland.
DeleteIf you really are a Tory you should probably vote that way though. There's a big danger right now for the Tories if there vote in Scotland falls again such as could occur if they tactically vote, e.g. for Labour or Lib.
That would be an added disaster for those of unionist persuasion as it would yield a hat trick of main UK party vote falls in addition to the big SNP gains we appear to be looking at.
Hence Ruth and Dave getting worried and calling on Tories to stick with Con.
I think the Tory vote will remain about the same as last time resulting in 0 to 2 seats. Not collapsing anything like Labour or the Lib Dems.
DeleteI think you'll find that the SNP will struggle to win EN & L as the incumbent Labour MP has a very strong local following.
DeleteI'm not familiar with the local politics of the seat. However, Lazarowicz's local following can't be that strong; he got 37.5% in 2010. That's only a few points ahead of the Lib Dem on 33.8% and is a tiny majority by Labour levels. He would need to completely hold all his 2010 support to be sure of a win if e.g. the Lib to SNP national swing was largely replicated locally.
DeleteI'd certainly like anon to vote SNP instead of Tory, particularly as it seems anon backs indy. However, I'll never try to tell people what to vote and my general view is never to vote tactically, but rather vote for who/what you support. If anon decides that, overall, a push for indy is more important than a Con vote which, e.g., he can do at Holyrood and have it counted, then that's anon's prerogative.*
*I wouldn't count such a move as tactical BTW, tactical is voting against what you want to try and prevent something worse. It's that kind of tactical I think people should avoid at all costs; British politicians want you to do that.
Oh, and looking at the numbers historically, Lazarowicz could see quite a big drop. Seems he got a fair bit of a tactical vote in 2010. His popularity was plummeting 2001-2005; fell by over 10%. Even the threat of the Tories couldn't bring him back to anywhere 2001 levels in 2010.
DeleteLet's wait and see then. My bet is that Labour will hold EN&L but of course I could be totally wrong.
DeleteI'm one of the few Tories who voted yes in the referendum.
ReplyDeleteI see. A proper Tory, i.e. one who actually believes in 'standing on your own two feet' and 'tacking responsibility for your own finances'.
Delete:-)
One interesting aspect of this poll, is the collapse of the Labour vote.
ReplyDeleteIs it what's happening or is it, as some Lord of impeccable character has been saying: 'an attempt by Ashcroft, the Tory Lord, to undermine Labour in Scotland?
There's on bit of circumstantial evidence, that may just be pointing towards the Ashcroft Lord being right, and the other wrong.
SNPout campaign were urging people to vote Tory in seats that had Labour ahead in the polls!
Labour went 'ape' at the suggestion that the Tories were better placed to win against the SNP, in seats that were traditional Labour strongholds and in which the Tories had previously been a poor third.
As the public spat was being played out on Face-Book, the SNPout angrily replied to some Labour msp, that the reason they were urging people to vote Tory rather than Labour in these seats was 'because 'everyone knew the Labour vote was collapsing'.
So even these staunch Unionists, who's sole intention, is keeping the SNP from wining as many seats as they can, are saying that the feedback they are getting on the ground, is that the Labour vote is collapsing!
My only fear about this, is that if it gets any worse, the Labour Party may have no choice but to sack Jim Murphy.
I am very keen to see him remain at Labour at least until he has had the chance to fillet the Scottish Labour vote in the Scottish Parliament Elections in 2016, much the same way as he is doing to Labour MP's now.
The creepy, slow, quiet and deep voice, followed by the pointed finger, red faced, angry, shouting voice, when he gets found out, is an absolute must for 2016.
Keep up the good work Jim.
I hate to break it to you, but James Francis Murphy is definitely toast if he loses his seat, and almost definitely toast even if he clings on, so long as the Labour results in Scotland are as bad as we hope they will be.
DeleteJames - I'm fascinated and excited by the polls and the implied political changes in Scotland; however, I'd welcome any facts about undecided / don't know / non-response rates in Ashcroft and other polls you present here. This is important - SNP could become victim to a "shy Labour" phenomenon, much as Kinnock-supporting polls suffered from "shy Conservatives" in (I forget the date?).
ReplyDeleteAlan Forrest