Saturday, May 31, 2025

Massive boost for the SNP prior to the Hamilton by-election as they retain a substantial lead in full-scale Scottish poll - and support for independence has surged to astonishing 54%

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Norstat / Sunday Times, 27th-30th May 2025)

Yes 54% (+4)
No 46% (-4)

Although it's the independence numbers that leap out as truly spectacular, in the current circumstances it's the party political voting intentions that the SNP leadership will be far more interested in, and they'll be enormously relieved by them.  There's been a peculiar string of Scottish subsample results from GB-wide polls putting Reform either ahead of the SNP or level with them, and although the sample sizes were small, there was an uneasy feeling growing that a full-scale Scottish poll might show something very similar, and right on the eve of the Hamilton by-election too.  Thankfully that hasn't proved to be the case at all.

Scottish Parliament constituency voting intentions:

SNP 33% (-2)
Labour 19% (+1)
Reform UK 18% (+4)
Conservatives 13% (-2)

Scottish Parliament regional list voting intentions:

SNP 28% (-2)
Labour 18% (+1)
Reform UK 16% (+3)
Conservatives 15% (-) 

The percentages above are incomplete, ie. they're missing the Lib Dems and the Greens, because as far as I can see those parties' vote shares are not mentioned anywhere in the Sunday Times write-up.  However, the seats projection is: SNP 54, Labour 20, Reform UK 18, Conservatives 17, Liberal Democrats 11, Greens 9.  Unusually by the standards of recent polls, that's not quite a pro-independence majority - the SNP and Greens between them have 63 seats, which is two short of the target of 65.  However, all that the SNP will care about right now is that they have a significant national lead over both Labour and Reform, which I would have thought means on paper that they ought to be in the lead in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse.  I'm not sure there's anything strange enough about the constituency that would suggest that Reform will be massively bucking national trends there, notwithstanding the Larkhall factor.  However, as we all know, parliamentary by-elections are profoundly weird bubble environments in which pretty much anything can happen.

Scottish voting intentions for next UK general election:

SNP 31% (-1)
Reform UK 21% (+4)
Labour 20% (+2)
Conservatives 12% (-5)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-3)

Seats projection: SNP 30, Labour 16, Liberal Democrats 6, Conservatives 5

A lot of the interest about this poll may focus on a hypothetical supplementary question about how people would vote in an independence referendum if Nigel Farage becomes Prime Minister.  The results are: Yes 58%, No 42%.  That's actually not especially meaningful, because people are terrible at answering hypothetical questions - the results are strikingly similar to how people said they would vote on independence if Brexit happened, and yet when the real thing did happen, there was no real breakthrough for Yes at all.  However, that's not to say that Farage as Prime Minister wouldn't boost Yes support.  It would very much depend on what he actually did in office.  If he rolled back or abolished devolution, for example, I could imagine Yes surging to way higher than 58%.

Net approval ratings of leading politicians:

John Swinney (SNP): -7
Anas Sarwar (Labour): -25
Nigel Farage (Reform UK): -26
Russell Findlay (Conservatives): -32
Keir Starmer (Labour): -39
Kemi Badenoch (Conservatives): -44
Donald Trump (US Republicans): -51

People will look at the above numbers superficially and assume that they mean that Nigel Farage is nowhere near as unpopular in Scotland as he's cracked up to be, but in a sense that's missing the point.  Approval ratings like these can tell you how many people dislike a particular leader, but not how deeply those people hate him.  That was always Mrs Thatcher's problem in Scotland.

The levels of support for Reform UK in one corner of Bath are Stewpefying

I don't know about you, alert readers, but I'm starting to get the impression that the controversial "Stew" blogger is just ever so slightly hooked on Scot Goes Pop.  His latest article is the *fifth* in the last three weeks or so to directly reference me, and he also lapses at one point into a little spiel about YouGov being the only polling firm to correctly structure and weight their Scottish subsamples, which is no more than a light rewording of what I say here on an almost weekly basis.

Honoured to have you as a stewdent, Stew, and I was particular chuffed to be the centre of attention in this section - 

"If you’re a fan of lazy, superficial political analysis from the mentally unwell, you might have read this week about John Swinney’s great strategic triumph of having “coaxed” an “endorsement” out of the Daily Record for Thursday’s by-election in Hamilton.  And if so, you might be forgiven for thinking that that analysis looks pretty stupid now."

For the uninitiated, yes it was me who used the words "coaxed" and "endorsement".  (Never let it be said that I'm getting under this guy's skin or anything.) Stew is basically trying to have a gloat about the fact that the Record have since balanced out their Swinney front page with a similar one featuring Anas Sarwar making Labour's pitch for the Hamilton by-election.

But, y'know, everything's relative, Stew.  I'd probably feel a lot stupider if I had done something really crazy like throwing away tens of thousands of pounds of other people's money on a loopy defamation court action against Kezia Dugdale.  I've never actually done anything quite as breathtakingly idiotic as that, and in fairness neither have 99.999999% of the rest of the population.  That means there are six-year-old schoolchildren in Yetts o' Muckhart who technically have superior political acumen to Stew, which is pretty darn impressive when you think about it.

But I digress.  The reality, of course, is that the Record were making a big statement with the Swinney front page that triggered Stew so much, and although they may have then made a remedial gesture to smooth things over with Labour after receiving a frantic "what happened to our love?" phone call, to a large extent that statement still stands.  Nobody will be in any doubt that this traditional Labour paper is, at the very least, choosing not to endorse Labour at the by-election.

The other key point to make here is that the two front pages taken together are likely to drive up turnout in Hamilton, which I'd have thought the SNP would be pretty happy about.  Most of the theories about how Reform might pull off a win hinge on there being a low turnout, and on Reform supporters being the most motivated to vote.

But if that obvious point has occurred to Stew, it's certainly not dampening his enthusiasm, because he uses the rest of his blogpost to excitedly talk up Reform's chances for all he's worth.  He still genuinely thinks he's building up to his big announcement next May without anyone noticing what he's doing ("We honestly COULDN'T HAVE IMAGINED even six weeks ago that we'd be saying this, but sometimes circumstances change in the most unpredictable of ways, so you know what?  F**k it, to win independence we'll first have to kill it.  You know what you have to do.  The alertest of readers will be voting Reform on Thursday.")

Come on, Stew, your elaborate sales pitch failed before it even really got started.  EVERYONE KNOWS what the big plan is.  You're putting yourself and everyone else through a great of deal of pain for nothing.  You may as well just don your "I'm With Nige" T-shirt a year early, and start living the dream openly.

But will the people of Hamilton elect a Reform MSP on Thursday and make Stew happy?

Option A: Happy Stew

Or will they elect an SNP MSP and make Stew angry?

Option B: Angry Stew

Be the first to find out by sticking with Scot Goes Pop's comprehensive coverage of by-election week.

Gordon Millar and the gaslighting on Gaza: why did Ariel Sharon really order Israel's withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in 2005, and were his motivations really selfless enough to compel a "reward"?

I had yet another session of being gaslighted last night about Gordon Millar's Sacred Comment.  I must say if only the people of Gaza enjoyed the same ultra-protected status as The Comment, the world would be a far better place right now.  But apparently every word, every punctuation mark, and every judicious double spacing that Gordon inserted into his Well-Researched Masterpiece must be displayed in its proper place for his True Meaning, his Meaning of Peace and Enlightenment, to be at last divined by readers of breeding and discernment.  (Although whenever I've sought clarity on what this mysterious true meaning is, it turns out to be remarkably similar to what I assumed the meaning was anyway -  ie. "he was just trying to explain to you the good reasons why the poll showed the Israeli public want to mass-murder the entire population of Gaza, WHAT'S SO AWFUL ABOUT THAT JAMES", etc, etc, etc.)

It's quite true that Gordon's characterisation of the Palestinian population as undesirables who 'nobody wants' was only one of his supposedly excellent (and "Well-Researched"!) reasons for genocidal attitudes being so thoroughly understandable.  But there were only actually two others.  Those were -

1) That Hamas and Hezbollah launched an average of 845 rocket attacks against Israel in every year between 2001 and 2022 - but, as I pointed out in a previous post, those attacks in total seemingly caused a few dozen Israeli deaths, which is only a microscopic fraction of the number of Palestinians slaughtered in massacres perpetrated by Israel.

2) That Israel's only "reward" for forcibly removing settlers from Gaza in 2005 and "leaving the entire territory to the Palestinians" was for Hamas to fire 3,048 rockets into Israel over the subsequent three years.  But, as I pointed out in the previous post, those Hamas attacks caused relatively few deaths, and the disengagement from Gaza had still left the territory as an open-air prison under a total Israeli blockade, which meant that under international law Israel remained the occupying power.  I also pointed out that Ariel Sharon ordered the withdrawal as a bid to make his planned annexation of large swathes of the West Bank more acceptable to international opinion.

With the help of Wikipedia, I've now gone back and found contemporaneous statements from Israeli officials about the full reasons for leaving Gaza in 2005.  Those reasons fall into three broad categories, none of which have anything whatsoever to do with being kind to Palestinians -

Reason 1: To end the peace process and prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state

"The significance of the disengagement plan is the freezing of the peace process, and when you freeze that process, you prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state, and you prevent a discussion on the refugees, the borders and Jerusalem. Effectively, this whole package called the Palestinian state, with all that it entails, has been removed indefinitely from our agenda." - Dov Weissglass, 2004

Reason 2: To prevent the ending of apartheid and the introduction of a "one man, one vote" democratic system in a country that might eventually have a Palestinian majority

"the danger the Palestinian womb posed to Israeli democracy" - Arnon Soffer

"[Ehud Olmert] expressed his certainty that the Israeli government would soon need to seriously and decisively address the "demographic issue"...He observed that an increasing number of Palestinians wanted to move from a fight against occupation to a fight for "one-man-one-vote"."

"We cannot hold on to Gaza forever. More than a million Palestinians live there and double their number with each generation." - Ariel Sharon, 2005

"We are disengaging from Gaza because of demography" - Shimon Peres, 2005

Reason 3: To move towards Israeli annexation of large parts of the West Bank

"At the same time, in the framework of the Disengagement Plan, Israel will strengthen its control over those same areas in the Land of Israel which will constitute an inseparable part of the State of Israel in any future agreement" - Ariel Sharon, 2003

So, according to Gordon Millar, Israelis were expecting Palestinians to "reward" them for nobly removing a small number of settlers from Gaza in pursuit of the selfless aims of destroying the peace process, preventing a Palestinian state, illegally confiscating a large chunk of Palestinian territory, and preventing Palestinians from having equal citizenship rights on a one person, one vote basis.  And when no "reward" was forthcoming, it was only natural for Israelis to start to get ratty and to want to exterminate the entire population of Gaza.

Sure, Gordon, sure.  There's no arguing with "research" of that quality.

Friday, May 30, 2025

A reply to Neil Sinclair and Gordon Millar: sorry chaps, but this blog does have an active moderation policy. Dehumanising language about the Palestinian ethnic group, and justifications of the calls for the extermination of that group, are not welcome here and never, ever will be.

Until today I was a member of a chat group which was mostly comprised of a number of former Alba members, plus also a small number of current Alba members who have severe concerns about the direction of the party.  For the most part I will not be identifying the members of that group, or revealing anything at all that they've said, because I still hold the vast majority of them in the highest regard and owe them personal loyalty.  However, what I will say is that the group was set up and administered by Neil Sinclair.  He imposed a strict rule on the group that no discussion of the genocide in Gaza (or "the war" or "the conflict" as some people still inaccurately call it) was permitted.  That was ostensibly because there was actually quite a sharp divergence of views among members of the group, with some people expressing a surprising amount of sympathy for the mass killings conducted by the IDF over the last eighteen months.  Arguably that says something quite revealing about the underlying nature of Alba as a party, because I suspect in the SNP and the Greens, for example, it would be a lot harder to find members or former members who don't find Israel's actions objectionable.

So over a period of months I've largely bit my tongue in deference to Neil's wishes whenever support for Israel was expressed on the chat, although that didn't stop my jaw dropping to the floor on a regular basis about what I was seeing.  However, today something bizarre happened.  Totally out of the blue, Neil theatrically announced on the group that we all needed to have a discussion about my supposedly unacceptable decision to "censor" Gordon Millar's comment on Scot Goes Pop a few days ago, in which Gordon made what can only be described as Nazi-like remarks portraying the entire Palestinian ethnic group as undesirable vermin, and arguing that this made it understandable that there was a poll showing that 47% of the Israeli population wanted to exterminate the entire two million strong population of Gaza.  Gordon's views are, frankly, indistinguishable from the prevailing attitudes in Germany in the 1930s and 1940s which paved the way for the mass-murder of six million Jews.  I was shocked when I read those views and I had no hesitation at all in deleting them.  This blog's comments section is not some sort of free-for-all, and it hasn't been since at least December 2014.  I make no secret of the fact that I have an active moderation policy, and that I often delete comments for reasons that fall well short of apologism for genocide.  Gordon's appalling views were never going to be welcome here, and they never will be.

But the reason that Neil felt he had licence to tell me how my own blog should be moderated is that Gordon is also a member of the chat group, and he apparently privately complained to Neil about the deletion of his comment and asked for something to be done about it.  Now, even just in terms of basic internet etiquette this makes no sense whatsoever.  Neil has jurisdiction over his online space (ie. the chat group) but he doesn't have jurisdiction over my own online space (ie. this blog).  So while he would have been entirely within his rights to give me a dressing-down if I hadn't followed the rules of his group, he had no business whatsoever telling me what the moderation policy on my own blog should be, even if a fellow member of the group happened to be incidentally affected by it.  If Neil personally agreed with Gordon that his comment on Scot Goes Pop shouldn't have been deleted, his response to Gordon should have been: "well, I fully sympathise with you, Gordon, but I'm afraid there's nothing I can do.  It's James' site and James' rules."

Instead, it quickly became clear that Neil was saying to me that I was no longer welcome on the chat group unless I did special favours for the other members by effectively making them immune to the normal moderation rules on this blog.  Expecting me to do that just simply isn't on, but even leaving the presumptuousness of the demand aside, it was just brazen hypocrisy.  In fact it was so blatant that it was almost beyond belief. Neil has been blanket-censoring views on Gaza in the part of the internet he controls while demanding that no censorship on views about Gaza should be imposed at all on a website that he doesn't control.  I mean, he's a highly intelligent man, and on some level he must know he doesn't have a leg to stand on here, but he blustered his way through just the same.

After no more than a few minutes of back and forth, he announced that he was permanently removing me from the chat group, which is fine - I think it was the only possible outcome, because as I pointed out, if he was going to demand that no comments about Gaza should ever be deleted on my blog, he couldn't realistically expect to continue forbidding me from saying openly on the group that I think mass murdering thousands of children is a crime against humanity on the part of Israel.  And he clearly wasn't ever going to accept that, so my removal was the only way of resolving his own hypocrisy and cognitive dissonance.

The real problem here, I suspect, is not that Neil thinks that no views on Gaza should ever be censored (by definition he doesn't), but that he thinks that Gordon's views in particular shouldn't have been censored because he personally agrees with them and finds them entirely reasonable.  Even after removing me from the chat group, he started messaging me privately with demands that I should go through Gordon's deleted comment line by line and explain "what I thought each part meant" and why I disagreed with it.  I told him that if he wanted to make demands like that, I'd be making a reply here, not anywhere else.  If ever there was going to be a time for Gordon to get his way by having his mates lean on me in private, without anyone ever knowing what had happened, that time is now over.

As I understand it, Gordon has already posted the deleted comment on Twitter (he apparently did it in a reply to Stew Campbell, who he also went blubbing to), so unless he's edited it, people can already see for themselves that the dehumanising comments about the Palestinian ethnic group were indeed made, and also the context in which they were made.  To my mind, this is the most disgraceful section - 

"No Arab country is prepared to accept the Palestinians, who they regard as troublemakers and terrorists, who destroyed Lebanon. Egypt is firm on this and the Jordanian army fought the Palestinians to remove them from Jordan."

That is exactly what the Nazis said about the Jews.  Nobody wants them.  They're nasty.  Undesirable.  They cause trouble wherever they go.  So if we can't persuade others to take them in, we'll have to deal with the "problem" ourselves.  We'll have to find a "solution".

And if you doubt that Gordon was intending to give succour to calls for a "final solution" to the "Palestinian problem", I'm afraid his entire comment was pursuing the point that it was understandable that 47% of Israeli citizens want to exterminate the entire population of Gaza.  He started the comment by complaining that I hadn't provided the necessary "context" for the genocidal views held by Israelis in the poll, and immediately after his dehumanising comments about Palestinians, he added this - 

"So it's just possible that the above has influenced the opinions of the ordinary Israelis who responded to the survey."

Gordon freely expressed those views.  I did not misunderstand them.  I did not misrepresent them.  Their meaning is plain and devoid of all possible ambiguity.  It is for Gordon to answer for those views, not for me.  And there is certainly no obligation on me to allow Gordon a platform for those views, or to amplify them for him, or to play along with a charade to downplay the significance of them under private pressure from Neil Sinclair.

Even as I've been writing this blogpost, I've checked back and found yet more new demands from Neil that I "immediately restore Gordon's comment" and even "apologise" (!) to him.  No, Neil.  No.  

You've made your decision today in the corner of the internet that you control.  I personally think it's a shameful decision driven by your inability to resolve a basic point of hypocrisy in any other way, but I do accept your right to take it.  I will not be begging you to change your mind.  So I simply request that you show the same basic dignity and respect and stop trying to claim rights of overlordship on this blog.  You do not possess those rights and you never will.  Genocide apologism is not welcome here.  Full stop.

Does anyone feel up to reporting the Express to the press regulator for this ridiculously misleading headline?

There's an article on the Scottish Daily Express website today with the title "Humiliation for SNP as Nigel Farage's Reform UK now level in shock new by-election poll".  This does not in fact refer to a full-scale poll, but to the Scottish subsample from the latest GB-wide More In Common poll.  It's obviously ludicrous to pass off a tiny subsample of 137 people, which is highly unlikely to have been structured and weighted correctly (as far as I'm aware only YouGov do that) as a "poll".  However, we know from past experience that the press regulator IPSO think it's totally fine for newspapers to mislead readers by reporting subsamples as if they're full-scale polls.  On this occasion, the Express have also reported the numbers accurately - they do show both the SNP and Reform on 24% apiece, although it took a hell of an adjustment for More In Common to get to that point.  Among likely voters, the SNP actually had a comfortable lead over Reform UK of 22% to 14%.  The discrepancy is caused by More In Common's approach to undecided voters - first of all a follow-up question tries to "force" undecided voters to make a choice, and if they still refuse to do so, they are then "assigned" to a party on the basis of a statistical model of how similar voters behave.  My question would be whether voters in Scotland are being assigned on the basis of how supposedly "similar voters" in England behave - if so, there's bound to be a pro-Reform distortion built in.  But that's an issue for More In Common, not for the Express.

Where I do think the Express have broken IPSO rules, though, is in the headline itself.  IPSO are clear that their code can be considered to have been breached if the text of the article does not support a claim made by the headline, and that is clearly the case here, because the More In Common poll is not a "by-election poll".  It does not relate to the Hamilton by-election in any way whatsoever.  It is not a poll conducted among residents of the Holyrood constituency of Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse asking for their voting intentions for the by-election next week.  Nor is it a national poll asking questions related to the by-election.  It is simply a Britain-wide poll asking for voting intentions for the next Westminster general election, expected in 2028 or 2029.    The Express are quite clearly trying to use the headline to give the false impression that there is a by-election poll showing the SNP and Reform level-pegging in Hamilton.  No such poll exists.

If you feel up to making a formal complaint to IPSO, the complaints form can be found HERE.  As regular readers will know, I've made complaints myself about the misreporting of polls in the past, with mixed results - one of my complaints against the Express was upheld, but IPSO bizarrely refused to force them to properly correct the inaccuracy.  It's probably better if the complaints don't always come from the same person.  If you do take the plunge, please let me know via my contact email address, which is:  icehouse.250@gmail.com

If I don't hear from anyone by close of play today, I may take a deep breath and have a go myself.

Thursday, May 29, 2025

For the people of Hamilton: a choice of two futures

There has been much discussion over the last 24 hours about the straight two-way choice of futures that the people of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse face a week from today, and I'd like to set it out for you in stark pictorial form.

Option A, as seen below, depicts the scene in Somerset next Friday morning if you do as Stew wants you to by electing a Reform MSP.

Option A: Happy Stew

As you can see, in this scenario Stew is happy, relaxed and carefree, and is in harmonious communion with the universe that surrounds him.

In complete contrast is Option B, seen below, in which you have thwarted Stew's desires by electing another SNP MSP.

Option B: Angry Stew

In this scenario the mood in Somerset has darkened considerably.  A stormy Friday lies ahead.  Crockery WILL be smashed.

Just personally, if I was making the choice, I'd undoubtedly go with Option B for sheer entertainment value, but in this case, people of Hamilton, the power lies entirely in your hands.

As it happens, Stew himself has been writing about that choice this morning, branding John Swinney and his advisers as "pathetic" and "mind-numbingly stupid" (these are among the blander of the standard Stew pleasantries) for having coaxed the Daily Record into giving what looks remarkably like a tacit front-page endorsement to the SNP in Hamilton, on the basis that there is no other way of stopping Reform from winning.  Stew argues that this shows Record readers that the SNP are "frightened" and reveals which party they are frightened of, and will make the SNP more likely to lose the by-election because voters who want to give them a kicking will now know who to vote for.

Hmmm.  Those of you who are familiar with Stew's approach and have wised up to the fact that he's an agenda-driven propagandist (let's call you "alert readers" for shorthand) will know not to take any of this at face value.  The reality is that he was probably quite shocked and angered when he saw the Record front page, because he wouldn't have seen the tacit endorsement for the SNP coming.  He probably fears that it will succeed in galvanising the anti-Reform vote behind the SNP, which is the last thing he wants to happen, and is now trying to make the best of a bad job by frantically accentuating the potential negatives for Swinney.  Do those negatives exist?  Maybe, it remains to be seen, but for my money the SNP have actually got quite a promising each-way bet going here.

In an ideal world, the Record front page will achieve its primary objective and the SNP will win the by-election.  But even if that doesn't happen, there are likely to be side-benefits.  Don't get me wrong, a Reform win would initially be a monumental setback for the SNP, and the newspaper headlines would be horrendous.  But there would then be a counter-reaction.  There wouldn't be a Rutherglen-style anti-SNP snowball effect, if anything it would be the opposite, because there is a hard ceiling on Reform support, and the majority of people would be frightened by the sudden prospect of Faragist rule in Scotland and would be highly motivated to stop it.  And the SNP will have handily positioned themselves as the only possible alternative to a Reform-led government.  They've even set a golden precedent of the Record backing them if it's necessary to stop Farage.  I suspect that once the 2026 Holyrood campaign properly gets underway, and the SNP are able to remind voters that they are a homegrown movement and Reform are interlopers without Scottish roots and are merely puppets of Farage who want to wreck our NHS, there could be quite a rapid 2011-style swing to the SNP and we could end up with a fantastic result that will exceed all expectations.  That is the potential benefit of being seen to be in a two-horse race with a highly undesirable party.

Stew concludes his piece by saying this - 

"We’ll find out in a week whether the SNP has managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of what looked like a comfortable victory. But even if they don’t, it’ll have been more through blind luck than judgement. The SNP is a shambles of imbeciles and it needs putting out of its own, and everyone else’s, misery."

Can alert readers actually square those words with the situation in the real world?  The SNP don't look much like a "shambles" at the moment, they've actually steadied the ship pretty effectively over the last year and have re-established themselves as the leading party in Scotland. Polls usually show that John Swinney is the most popular (or least unpopular) leader in the country.  The SNP are certainly under no threat whatsoever from any of the small pro-indy parties - the failed Alba experiment seems to be drawing to a close, albeit slowly and painfully, while it looks very unlikely that 'Liberate Scotland' will ever get off the ground.

So if Stew thinks there is any chance at all of the SNP being "put out of its misery", who does he think is going to do it?  He must mean a unionist party.  Specifically he must mean Reform UK.  It's impossible to escape the conclusion that he's trying to nudge any of his readers who live in Hamilton towards voting Reform.  He was probably gagging to bring his explicit endorsement of Reform forward by a year, but the voice in his head will have said: "No, my son, it is far too soon to show our hand!  All of our meticulous preparations would be wasted!"

Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Barrhead Boy's tone-deaf meltdown puts it beyond all doubt: "Liberate Scotland" is not a credible electoral proposition, and it does not have credible leadership

I have some past history with Roddy MacLeod, aka "Barrhead Boy" (among other things, we were on the Alba NEC together for a year), so I know only too well that he can be a volatile character.  But even so, his meltdown in response to my blogpost of yesterday is bizarre, and it does neither him nor his new electoral alliance any favours.  I now feel somewhat liberated to say out loud what I previously said only in private - that while I have very great respect for individual Liberate Scotland candidates such as Eva Comrie and Sean Davis, I do think they've backed the wrong horse here.  

In spite of the mistaken impression some people might get from MacLeod's rant, my blogpost was not in fact a full-on attack on Liberate Scotland - it simply brought to people's attention that one of the three component parts of the alliance, namely Sovereignty, has a number of extremist right-wing policies, and that one of those policies in particular (withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights) would have prevented me from voting for Liberate even if I wasn't a current SNP member.  If MacLeod can't even cope with seeing a considered comment like that without accusing me of being some sort of traitor to Scotland, which is essentially what he's done, then he's plainly a zealot who will not be able to work constructively with the vast bulk of the independence movement, let alone reach out to ordinary voters.  People have been saying to me in private for weeks that with MacLeod in charge, Liberate will just be Alba Mark II, because it'll be yet another tinpot dictatorship (albeit an even less subtle one, because MacLeod isn't as good at concealing his temper from the public gaze).

I'll respond to his specific points, such as they are - 

"Earlier today an SNP blogger decided to attack Liberate Scotland and our attempts at unifying the Yes movement."

No I did not do that.  It wouldn't have been physically possible for me to do that, because MacLeod and Liberate are not trying to unify the Yes movement.  They are instead trying to divide the Yes movement further.  They have already announced their intention to stand constituency candidates directly against the SNP next May, which is bound to increase the chances of unionist parties gaining constituency seats, and thus reduce the chances of the pro-independence majority at Holyrood being saved.  Not even Alba are being as irresponsible and destructive as that.  Kenny MacAskill has sensibly announced that Alba will be sitting out the constituency ballot and only standing on the list.

"This Thursday we might indeed see the backlash against the SNP if independence supporters continue to boycott the ballot box by staying at home."

I presume that's a reference to next Thursday, not this Thursday, because the Hamilton by-election is next week.  If there is indeed a backlash against the SNP next week and people who would normally vote SNP stay at home, how does McLeod think it would help to have a small pro-indy party trying to persuade them to vote against the SNP instead?  In a first-past-the-post constituency election, that cannot possibly help the pro-independence cause in any way.  Literally the only way to stop Reform UK next Thursday is to vote SNP.  Will MacLeod, the self-styled "unifier", urge independence supporters in Hamilton to do that?  If not, why not?

"This site and TASP has long advocated for our movement to unite."

No, it hasn't.  It's done the opposite. It has constantly tried to erect an impenetrable Berlin Wall between the SNP and other independence supporters.

"Be assured the Union fears Scottish unity more than they fear the SNP."

That's certainly true.  And doubtless the most committed unionists will be wishing MacLeod well in his efforts to split the Yes vote.

"Unlike our detractors we say to them you are welcome to join our unity cause. We will not exclude any independence supporting party, organisation or individual."

Which is a mealy-mouthed, self-righteous way of doubling down on the rash decision to invite what is essentially a far-right party into his alliance.  Let's be clear: Sovereignty are not making some kind of trivial or fringe contribution to Liberate - they are one of only three component parts of the alliance, and a very substantial proportion of Liberate candidates will therefore be people who want to ban *all* economic migration, restrict Scottish citizenship on the basis of some sort of undefined ethnicity test, withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights, discriminate against those in same-sex relationships, and roll back free healthcare and the welfare state.

That is not the sort of Scotland I am remotely interested in building.  More importantly, it is not the kind of prospectus that will help build a majority for independence - in fact it could potentially set the cause back decades if the public starts to take it seriously.  If MacLeod is going to get his alliance to work, he needs to have calm, reasoned, compelling answers to the legitimate questions that are going to be asked by many, many people who have concerns about his embrace of Sovereignty.  If he is incapable of responding without lashing out and accusing the people asking the questions of being traitors or saboteurs, then he simply isn't fit to be in a position of political leadership, and he should either abandon the whole endeavour or hand over to a less hotheaded colleague.  There are actually one or two sensible people around him, and I'd be very surprised if they haven't at least warned him to exercise considerably more caution in his dealings with Sovereignty.  I don't think he's listening to anything but the sound of his own voice at the moment, and I doubt if he ever will.

"Let’s not forget, during the 2014 referendum, Better Together was a coalition made up of the Tories, Labour, the Lib Dems and yes, even UKIP, the BNP, and Britain First"

Don't be so bloody ridiculous, Roddy.  The BNP and Britain First were not part of the official Better Together campaign.  And let me tell you this: if Labour or the Tories had ever been batsh*t crazy enough to enter into a formal electoral pact with the BNP, as MacLeod is doing with Sovereignty, even our biased Scottish media would have absolutely crucified them for it, and rightly so.

"Wouldn’t it be better, after independence, to enshrine a written constitution, a document rooted in Scottish values and democratic principles, that guarantees human rights in law, beyond the reach of political whims or Westminster meddling?"

I must say I don't see how any of that would be inconsistent with giving a basic pre-independence guarantee that Scotland will be (like every other European country apart from Russia and Belarus) a party to the European Convention on Human Rights, which is precisely what MacLeod is setting his face against by doubling down on his alliance with Sovereignty.  His decision will quite reasonably be interpreted as meaning that, if he and his alliance are calling the shots, human rights are at risk of being downgraded after independence.

"Debating individual policy positions now is putting the cart before the horse. Let’s get the powers first. Let’s win our independence."

When people say that we should leave individual policies until after independence, they're generally talking about practical bread and butter policies, not about fundamental values such as human rights and democracy.  Is MacLeod really saying that every single fundamental value will be up for grabs after independence, and nothing at all can be assured or promised in advance?  Is he really saying "we might be a Christian theocracy, we might be a liberal democracy, who knows, let's decide later"?  It's a ludicrous line of argument, and no way to go about winning independence.

MacLeod's blogpost is a catastrophically ill-judged and tone-deaf response from the de facto leader of an alliance that is going absolutely nowhere unless and until it has a fundamental rethink.  What I've just said will be an unpalatable message for some, but anyone with an ounce of political nous knows that it's true.

Update on YouGov's Scottish subsample figures

Thank you to an anonymous commenter who has pointed out that I had the wrong Scottish subsample figures for the YouGov poll in the previous post.  To be fair to myself, I was looking at the Wikipedia list of polls and an editor there must have directed the link to last week's tables by mistake.  I was going to update the previous post to correct the error, but as a fair bit of what I wrote there no longer applies, I've decided to start afresh.  Here are the correct numbers:

Reform UK 24%, SNP 23%, Labour 17%, Conservatives 13%, Liberal Democrats 12%, Greens 7%

This is the first time Reform have been ahead in a YouGov Scottish subsample, and doubtless some people will get very over-excited about it, but it categorically does not mean Reform are actually ahead in Scotland.  Although YouGov structure and weight their Scottish subsamples correctly, the margin of error on any individual subsample is still enormous due to the tiny sample size.

It may well be that if a full-scale Scottish poll was conducted right now, Reform would be in a strong second place, but I very much doubt if they'd be ahead of the SNP.  Still, this should be regarded as a warning shot across the bow, especially with the Hamilton by-election being so close.

Catastrophe for Keir Starmer as Labour slip to new post-election low of just 21% in YouGov poll - while the SNP lead by 9 points in the Scottish subsample

GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 26th-27th May 2025):

Reform UK 29% (-)
Labour 21% (-1)
Conservatives 19% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 15% (-2)
Greens 11% (+1)
SNP 2% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

Scottish subsample: SNP 28%, Labour 19%, Reform UK 18%, Liberal Democrats 15%, Greens 11%, Conservatives 8%

This is a new record in two ways - it's Labour's lowest vote share with YouGov since the general election (their previous lowest was 22%) and the 8-point gap also represents Reform's biggest lead so far in a YouGov poll (the previous biggest was 7 points).  On the other hand, this poll is less unusual than the previous one in that it doesn't have the Liberal Democrats ahead of the Tories.  In retrospect, that result may been an illusion caused by margin of error noise - although in the overall scheme of things the Lib Dems aren't all that far behind both Labour and the Tories and may have the opportunity to overtake one or both during the course of this parliament.

It's starting to look like there may have been some genuine slippage for the SNP in Scotland - albeit remember the evidence for that is limited to a string of Scottish subsamples from GB-wide polls which in total amount to the sample size of less than two Scottish full-scale polls, so plenty of caution is still called for.  I can't think of any obvious recent event in Scottish politics that would have been a trigger, so if it has happened, my guess is that the explanation is simply that Reform support rose further after the English local elections and this time the SNP were affected by that tide.  (That said, the Green vote is unusually high in a second successive YouGov subsample, so that's another possible explanation.)  The timing is obviously not ideal with the Hamilton by-election just around the corner, but on paper at least, the SNP should still be ahead in Hamilton because they have a clear national lead, albeit possibly a smaller one than before.  It's interesting that Professor John Curtice has been pouring cold water on the speculation about a Reform win in Hamilton and doesn't even think they're likely to finish second.

The irony is that a Reform win in Hamilton would arguably be a bigger catastrophe for the Tories than it would be for the SNP.  As soon as Reform demonstrate they can take on the SNP and sometimes win, most of the remaining Tory voters may flock to them, which could be enough to reduce the Tories to virtually fringe party status.  

UPDATE: There's an important correction to some of the information in this post, which you can read HERE.

Tuesday, May 27, 2025

Any independence supporters tempted to vote for the Liberate Scotland alliance should be aware that it contains a party that wants to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights and roll back the welfare state

As many of you will know, the Alba Party faces a potentially existential threat from a new electoral alliance called 'Liberate Scotland'.  In many ways this is entirely deserved, because some of the people involved in the alliance were previously well-known as Alba members but were forced out of Alba either by Stalinist "disciplinary" action (as in the case of Denise Somerville and Sean Davis) or by indirect means as a result of bullying or unjust treatment (as in the case of Eva Comrie).  

It's not that I in any way expect this new alliance to be successful - in fact I think it will fail, because it's speaking "liberation" and "decolonisation" language that most ordinary voters will regard as other-worldly.  From what I've been told (and this is only gossip that I've heard, guys, so don't shoot the messenger), the de facto leader of the alliance is Roddy MacLeod, aka the blogger and YouTuber "Barrhead Boy".  If Alex Salmond didn't have what it took to lead a small pro-indy party to more than 2% of the vote in 2021, many will wonder if it's really likely that Barrhead Boy is the Messiah with the missing ingredients.  But in a sense that isn't the point - this new alliance doesn't speak the language of the people of Scotland, but it very much does speak the language of a niche that was previously a crucial part of Alba's coalition of support.  One of the reasons that Alba (or its alter ego Slanszh Media) had to set up its little-watched weekly YouTube show Tas Is Still Talking was because Barrhead Boy walked away from Alba in 2023 in solidarity with people like Eva Comrie, and he took his Prism show with him, which had previously functioned as Alba's de facto in-house broadcasting service.  As far as I can gather, although Tas Is Still Talking has much, much, much higher production values than Prism (it's directed, after all, by the renowned 9/11 conspiracy theorist Zulfikar Sheikh), it has completely failed to supplant its more amateurish forerunner.  Prism still has a much bigger regular audience, and I therefore think it's entirely plausible that Barrhead Boy will succeed in bringing across a substantial chunk of former Alba voters to the new alliance.  If even only a quarter of former Alba voters make the switch, that could reduce Alba's share of the Holyrood list vote from 1.7% in 2021 to around 1.2% or 1.3% next year, and that could well be the psychological shock that finishes Alba off for good.

I won't be crying any crocodile tears if that happens.  Over the last eighteen months, Alba has gradually revealed itself to be an absolute abomination.  When I was still a member of the party, I clung to the hope and the belief that it could still be salvaged by bringing it to a greater extent under the democratic control of its members, but that proved to be utterly impossible.  The ruling faction centred around Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh demonstrated that there wasn't any step, no matter how undemocratic, sleazy, corrupt or nepotistic, that they wouldn't take to maintain total control.

But however much of a relief it would be for almost everyone if the Alba shambles is finally brought to an end once and for all, I do think it's important that anyone toying with a vote for Liberate does so with their eyes wide open.  It's an alliance composed of two parties (Independence for Scotland and Sovereignty) and one quasi-party or proto-party (Independents for Independence).  Sovereignty's involvement will, I believe, become hugely controversial because they are generally billed as "the pro-independence answer to Reform", and therefore have policies that many will regard as straying well beyond the values of the mainstream independence movement.

Here is a selection of Sovereignty's policies, so you can make up your own mind -

* Citizenship of an independent Scotland would be based on ethnicity not residence.  "Non-Scots" (exactly how this will be defined is unclear) who are resident in Scotland on independence day will be given residency rights, but seemingly not citizenship rights.

* Scotland would not be party to the European Convention on Human Rights.  That is a fairly extreme position by any standards - the only European countries currently outside ECHR jurisdiction are Russia and Belarus.  Is that the sort of club we want to join?

* "The church should continue to play its historic role in the provision of education, healthcare and care for the poor and needy." That is a very cagily worded sentence and I think it requires a proper and honest explanation.  The church essentially gave up its historic role in providing education and caring for the poor more than a century ago when the welfare state was introduced, so the most plausible interpretation of the policy is that the welfare state would be radically rolled back and the church would be invited to provide a bargain-basement service to plug the gap.  It's not clear whether only the one true Presbyterian Kirk would be permitted to do this, or whether those of us on the Papist side of the fence would get a look-in too.

* Divorce law would be de-liberalised to "encourage couples to stay together".

* Christian morality would become part of the law of the land.  What form this would take is largely unspecified, although it's made clear that "usurious lending" would be outlawed in line with Christian teaching.

* Abortion rights would seemingly become more restrictive. (Because of my Catholic upbringing, I'm very conflicted on abortion and a pro-life agenda doesn't necessarily put me off, but I know it would be a red line for many.)

* "Economic migration" (otherwise known as migration) would be stopped.  It would be as bald as that - it would simply be stopped.

* On the other hand, the Scottish diaspora would be given a right to return - implying a blood-and-soil immigration policy.

* There would be a pro-natalist policy, ie. to replace all the lost immigrants, couples would be cajoled by the state into having more children.

* LGBT rights (or LGB rights if you prefer) would appear to be under severe threat, because "marriage between one man and one woman" is identified as the bedrock of society.

* Net Zero would be abandoned.

* Medical care would seemingly only be guaranteed to be free in cases of "emergency".

* There's also some mildly eccentric stuff about high-altitude housing being built.  Can we look forward to Goatfell New Town?

* The Nordic Model on prostitution law would be introduced.  I know most Alba supporters would probably be OK with that, but I have to ask: what is it with right-wing parties and the Nordic Model?  It's a policy rooted in classical Marxism, and yet right-wing politicians seem to be queuing up to back it. Maybe it's the only form of censoriousness they feel they can get away with these days.

Speaking personally, even if I hadn't rejoined the SNP in January, there is no way on God's earth I'd ever be voting for an alliance containing a party that wants to leave the ECHR - that would be an absolute dealbreaker.