You're probably right. Labour being 14 points behind is pretty standard for them these days. They seem to have given up any hope of being in government. They aim to be a pressure group these days, like the Lib Dems.
All positive. I hope, and I'm confident we will hear a much more proactive tone towards independence at this conference. Let's be very careful here though. We've been led up the garden path too often to just accept sound bites and vague promises. I'll be looking out for detail, dates, firm commitments, accountability. We need James and others like him on as many committees as possible to hold the leadership's feet to the fire.
9.10 I hope so but with respect, I'll judge whether I'm disappointed or not. Grassroots indy has been treated pretty badly by the SNP leadership for years, almost like an inconvenience at times. That puts suspicion in your mind. My approval will be very hard earned.
Until fairly recently, Survation were indeed one of the more No friendly pollsters. It’s also a fact that until fairly recently, Ipsos (the Gold Standard) were one of the more Yes friendly pollsters!
9:12, of course it’s not Gold Standard anymore! After all, it’s most recent polls have shown a No lead! James Kelly dosen’t even cover Ipsos polls anymore!
Ipsos do not poll by telephone any longer, electric or otherwise, although I am forced to yet again point out that it is unclear what on earth our regular commentator means by the term "electric telephone". Which phones are non-electric?
Yes seem to be polling consistently around 52%. This is encouraging. However, let’s face it, it ain’t going to cut it with Westminster. We need to drive support up to and beyond 60%, so it’s very clear cut. Yes polling consistently 60% or more would put tremendous pressure on Andy Burnham and I feel he’d buckle. If Westminster didn’t grant a referendum in these circumstances, I feel it would lead to large scale demonstrations, with possibly even civil unrest creeping in.
I've got a tremendous amount of respect for John Swinney, and I believe the huge personal sacrifices he has made over so many years in the service of the SNP deserve far greater recognition.
He's devoted a huge part of his life to the party, shouldered difficult responsibilities and remained committed through some incredibly challenging periods.
Whatever the pressures, he's continued to put the SNP and its future first. I think that loyalty, experience and dedication should never be taken for granted, and I genuinely want to see him succeed in rebuilding confidence and unity within the party.
I'm also firmly behind James Kelly in the SNP's internal elections. James is a highly regarded, principled and passionate voice for independence who is willing to challenge complacency and hold the party to its promises.
I want to see John supported in leading the SNP and James supported in keeping the party focused on its founding purpose.
Both men have something valuable to contribute, and I hope SNP members give James the backing he deserves while recognising John's years of commitment and personal sacrifice to the party.
I think John Swinney deserves real credit for the SNP's improving polling position. He's shown commitment, resilience and steady leadership through some very difficult times, helping rebuild confidence in the party. With the SNP 14 points ahead of Labour and independence at 52%, there's reason for optimism. John has given so much to the SNP over the years, and it's good to see signs of progress under his leadership.
SNP are proposing a sample of 1.5 million. But the central limit theorem in stats shows a properly random sample of about 1,000 already gives roughly ±3% precision for a near-50% proportion. Precision improves only with the square root of sample size, so gains beyond a few thousand are very small. A survey of 1.5 million is unnecessary for statistical accuracy. What matters is randomness: a large non-random or self-selected sample stays biased regardless of size.
A random sample of 5,000 already gives a margin of error of about 1.4 percent under the central limit theorem. Double it to 10,000 and you reach 1 percent; go to 20,000 and you are at 0.7 percent; hit 100,000 and the error shrinks only to 0.3 percent. Pushing all the way to 1.5 million gets you to a pointless 0.08 percent. Because precision improves only with the root of sample size, almost all the useful accuracy is already in hand by 20,000 or so. The rest is pure overkill. And none of these numbers mean anything unless the sample is actually random. A giant self-selected survey stays biased no matter how large it grows.
YouGov, Scotland political snapshot, field work 29 Sept - 5 Oct, sample population 1,060
Should Scotland be an independent country (excluding usual neutral positions) No 53% Yes 47%.
Favourability of politicians (net): John Swinney -19 Andy Burnham +9 Nigel Farage -56 Nothing much to worry about. Burnham talks a good game (denouncing Thatcherism & colonisation of Palestinian West Bank) but won’t deliver. Folk will rumble this snake oil salesman before too long.
Only other finding of note; people rate the economy as the highest priority by some distance. The Scottish Government should prioritise more, decent paying jobs with utmost urgency.
Ah yes...You Gov.....the pollster still weighting by 2014 data. Hey You Gov....loads of these folk are dead....I'm impressed you still managed a response from them!....:-)
Fair enough. When you're from Manchester, you really appreciate that Manchester is the greatest place in Manchester and people in other places want to know what Manchesterians think. I believe Mr Burnham is heading to Zurich next week to give the bankers there some Manchesterish banking insights. They'll learn a lot.
Burnham has a proposal for Swinney. If Swinney agrees to take commands from Burnham over matters which Swinney controls. Matters which Swinney was elected to control just a few months ago. Then unelected Burnham may open talks with elected Swinney at some unspecified point in the future where Burnham may or may not deign to grant powers to Swinney, Swinney may or may not be interested in.
You’d have to be an imbecile to go for that deal. Mind you, you’d have to be an imbecile to travel to England to have your photie took with the Major of Greater Peterborough.
i notice ITV and BBC interviewed both the Tory and Labour leaders about Scotland at lunctime but ommitted the First Minister of Scotland. Obviously an oversight on the part of the brit broadcasters.
7.50 The trouble is that vast areas of wind useable seabed were sold off for a fraction of their value in Kate Forbes's calamitous ScotWind auction. Remember, she wasn't sidelined by the SNP because of this incompetence but because she upset the trans mob by going to church.
Another day, another extreme nationalist propaganda headline.
ReplyDeleteYou're probably right. Labour being 14 points behind is pretty standard for them these days. They seem to have given up any hope of being in government. They aim to be a pressure group these days, like the Lib Dems.
DeleteTell us all.........from that polling, where are the positives for unionism, pal?
ReplyDelete“Extreme”? So Scottish Nationalists are extremists? Try to shut us up then, proscribe us, I dare you!
ReplyDeleteAll positive. I hope, and I'm confident we will hear a much more proactive tone towards independence at this conference.
ReplyDeleteLet's be very careful here though. We've been led up the garden path too often to just accept sound bites and vague promises. I'll be looking out for detail, dates, firm commitments, accountability.
We need James and others like him on as many committees as possible to hold the leadership's feet to the fire.
John Swinney is to set out an interesting initiative in that space; you will not be disappointed.
Delete9.10 I hope so but with respect, I'll judge whether I'm disappointed or not. Grassroots indy has been treated pretty badly by the SNP leadership for years, almost like an inconvenience at times. That puts suspicion in your mind. My approval will be very hard earned.
Delete9.10 A yoon troll!
DeleteUntil fairly recently, Survation were indeed one of the more No friendly pollsters.
ReplyDeleteIt’s also a fact that until fairly recently, Ipsos (the Gold Standard) were one of the more Yes friendly pollsters!
Ipsos polls by electric telephone I believe still, which is outmoded. So I don't think it is a gold standard any more.
Delete9:12, of course it’s not Gold Standard anymore! After all, it’s most recent polls have shown a No lead! James Kelly dosen’t even cover Ipsos polls anymore!
DeleteI agree.
DeleteIpsos, along with YouGov should be taken with a very large pinch of salt. James is right, to largely ignore these polls.
"Electric telephone" ... lol.
DeleteIpsos do not poll by telephone any longer, electric or otherwise, although I am forced to yet again point out that it is unclear what on earth our regular commentator means by the term "electric telephone". Which phones are non-electric?
DeleteTwo cans and a string?
DeleteEncouraging to see Swinney do so well.
ReplyDeleteA very good SNP leader who has sacrificed a lot for the good of his party.
Honestly can't say whether I'm impressed or suspicious that the SNP should choose a No-friendly pollster for their survey.
ReplyDeleteGood luck in the voting.
Nobody cares what you think.
DeleteCalm doon, Norrie.
DeleteI'm glad they chose the one they did. If they chose the other one guess what people would be saying. Hahaha! So they didn't. That's what they thought.
ReplyDeleteYes seem to be polling consistently around 52%. This is encouraging.
ReplyDeleteHowever, let’s face it, it ain’t going to cut it with Westminster. We need to drive support up to and beyond 60%, so it’s very clear cut. Yes polling consistently 60% or more would put tremendous pressure on Andy Burnham and I feel he’d buckle. If Westminster didn’t grant a referendum in these circumstances, I feel it would lead to large scale demonstrations, with possibly even civil unrest creeping in.
Agree - they can always turn round and say youre split until youre not
Delete9.56 is KC.
DeleteFor non-connoisseurs of the KC art-form, "let's face it" is always a strong indicator.
DeleteI've got a tremendous amount of respect for John Swinney, and I believe the huge personal sacrifices he has made over so many years in the service of the SNP deserve far greater recognition.
ReplyDeleteHe's devoted a huge part of his life to the party, shouldered difficult responsibilities and remained committed through some incredibly challenging periods.
Whatever the pressures, he's continued to put the SNP and its future first. I think that loyalty, experience and dedication should never be taken for granted, and I genuinely want to see him succeed in rebuilding confidence and unity within the party.
I'm also firmly behind James Kelly in the SNP's internal elections. James is a highly regarded, principled and passionate voice for independence who is willing to challenge complacency and hold the party to its promises.
I want to see John supported in leading the SNP and James supported in keeping the party focused on its founding purpose.
Both men have something valuable to contribute, and I hope SNP members give James the backing he deserves while recognising John's years of commitment and personal sacrifice to the party.
I think John Swinney deserves real credit for the SNP's improving polling position. He's shown commitment, resilience and steady leadership through some very difficult times, helping rebuild confidence in the party. With the SNP 14 points ahead of Labour and independence at 52%, there's reason for optimism. John has given so much to the SNP over the years, and it's good to see signs of progress under his leadership.
ReplyDeleteAs noted, catastrophe for Labour!
DeleteSNP are proposing a sample of 1.5 million. But the central limit theorem in stats shows a properly random sample of about 1,000 already gives roughly ±3% precision for a near-50% proportion. Precision improves only with the square root of sample size, so gains beyond a few thousand are very small. A survey of 1.5 million is unnecessary for statistical accuracy. What matters is randomness: a large non-random or self-selected sample stays biased regardless of size.
ReplyDeleteA random sample of 5,000 already gives a margin of error of about 1.4 percent under the central limit theorem. Double it to 10,000 and you reach 1 percent; go to 20,000 and you are at 0.7 percent; hit 100,000 and the error shrinks only to 0.3 percent. Pushing all the way to 1.5 million gets you to a pointless 0.08 percent. Because precision improves only with the root of sample size, almost all the useful accuracy is already in hand by 20,000 or so. The rest is pure overkill. And none of these numbers mean anything unless the sample is actually random. A giant self-selected survey stays biased no matter how large it grows.
DeleteIt's as likely as Schoolbags! Oven Chips! and now... Balaclavas! But even more pointless and thoughtless.
DeleteWith a population size of 4.2 million voters, a sample of 1.5 million gives a margin of error of 0.06% at the 95% confidence level.
DeleteAt the 99% level it's 0.08%.
YouGov, Scotland political snapshot, field work 29 Sept - 5 Oct, sample population 1,060
ReplyDeleteShould Scotland be an independent country (excluding usual neutral positions) No 53% Yes 47%.
Favourability of politicians (net):
John Swinney -19
Andy Burnham +9
Nigel Farage -56
Nothing much to worry about. Burnham talks a good game (denouncing Thatcherism & colonisation of Palestinian West Bank) but won’t deliver. Folk will rumble this snake oil salesman before too long.
Only other finding of note; people rate the economy as the highest priority by some distance. The Scottish Government should prioritise more, decent paying jobs with utmost urgency.
Ah yes...You Gov.....the pollster still weighting by 2014 data.
DeleteHey You Gov....loads of these folk are dead....I'm impressed you still managed a response from them!....:-)
Just a wee reminder to the visting mouth frothers. Stuey needs money. Please get on to WOS and give generously. And have a wee rage froth.
ReplyDeleteLast dozen Indy Polls (DKs removed) -
ReplyDeleteYes - 52%, 51%, 52%, 52%, 55%, 52%, 52%, 52%, 52%, 52%
No - 53% 52%.
Yes consistent at just over 52%.
It’s concerning, to say the least, that YouGov continue to show No leads.
ReplyDeleteHiya KC.
DeleteAndy Burnham mancsplaining in Motherwell.
ReplyDeleteFair enough. When you're from Manchester, you really appreciate that Manchester is the greatest place in Manchester and people in other places want to know what Manchesterians think. I believe Mr Burnham is heading to Zurich next week to give the bankers there some Manchesterish banking insights. They'll learn a lot.
DeleteK C the sad wee man is still on. Hi K C. What should concern you is a polling company still using flawed weighting in polls in 2026.
ReplyDelete3:18,
DeleteA gullible fool who only believes the polls showing the results he wants to see!
Oh dear!
Lol.
DeleteFrom the fool who concentrates on only 2 polls out of the last 12 😂😂😂
4 of the last 10 independence polls have shown No leads!
Delete"Brit Nat Troll Bombshell: KC admits 6 of the last 10 polls show a No lead"
DeleteBurnham has a proposal for Swinney.
ReplyDeleteIf Swinney agrees to take commands from Burnham over matters which Swinney controls. Matters which Swinney was elected to control just a few months ago. Then unelected Burnham may open talks with elected Swinney at some unspecified point in the future where Burnham may or may not deign to grant powers to Swinney, Swinney may or may not be interested in.
You’d have to be an imbecile to go for that deal. Mind you, you’d have to be an imbecile to travel to England to have your photie took with the Major of Greater Peterborough.
I know you’re a very busy man at this time James, but I trust you’ll be doing analysis on the YouGov independence poll in due course?
ReplyDeleteHi KC, much as I'd love to drop everything and obey your commands, I'm at a conference.
DeleteC-O-N-F-E-R-E-N-CE ......thats a VERY big word isnt it KC.
DeleteIt's a bit pear-shaped.
Deletei notice ITV and BBC interviewed both the Tory and Labour leaders about Scotland at lunctime but ommitted the First Minister of Scotland. Obviously an oversight on the part of the brit broadcasters.
ReplyDeleteScotland has a fifth (20%) of THE ENTIRE WORLD's Offshore Wind Capacity!
ReplyDeleteWhat an amazing and VERY important statistic for our future!
Bigly.
Delete7.50 The trouble is that vast areas of wind useable seabed were sold off for a fraction of their value in Kate Forbes's calamitous ScotWind auction.
DeleteRemember, she wasn't sidelined by the SNP because of this incompetence but because she upset the trans mob by going to church.